LTA's MLB Plays

[Redscot]

STL -1 RL
STL/HOU u7.5
TEX/MIN o9
PIT/ATL o7.5
BAL/TOR u9

I don't want to play them all so I'm trying to narrow down to 2 maybe 3.

I share 1,2 & 4 bro. 1 being my strongest lean.

High strike % ump in Texas could see a lot of k's, both pitchers have been hot, I leaned under, but 9 is pretty low if the jet stream is in full effect and Baker is a fly ball pitcher.

I have no clue on reading Tor OR Balty, they both constantly confound me.

Let's see if LTA agrees with us on any....

[ManBearPig]

Something to think about...home favorites in July for this season...change seasons if you want to see how it holds true over the years. Just blind betting them would've been fairly profitable.

I think HOU blew their load last night and STL takes it to them tonight. This one might even be worth at RL play. The line for me is now at -140 on the 1RL so I may just play 1U on the the RL instead.

[Redscot]

Something to think about...home favorites in July for this season...change seasons if you want to see how it holds true over the years. Just blind betting them would've been fairly profitable.

I think HOU blew their load last night and STL takes it to them tonight. This one might even be worth at RL play. The line for me is now at -140 on the 1RL so I may just play 1U on the the RL instead.

Interesting on the home favorites, doesn't surprise me as I have had a bad month and I like to think I can find hidden value .

I agree -140 for the -1 seems like half-stepping when we really feel the Cards should roll.

Kinda tempted to take the Giants 1st 5.

[ManBearPig]

Interesting on the home favorites, doesn't surprise me as I have had a bad month and I like to think I can find hidden value . I agree -140 for the -1 seems like half-stepping when we really feel the Cards should roll. Kinda tempted to take the Giants 1st 5.

I went with the ML in the STL game and think I'm going to lay off the others. The PIT over seems to be a play tonight but I'm seeing too many things that point to the under so I'm not going to force it. I have some bitch ball plays so I'll hope those do well.

Well, you may want to wait until next month, if you change that number from 7 to 8 you will see a much different story for August.

[Love The Action]

Play # 4

Giants ML (-123) 1x (Locked)

Gotta go with the freak here...sorry about late post...busy at work...

[Redscot]

Play # 4

Giants ML (-123) 1x (Locked)

Gotta go with the freak here...sorry about late post...busy at work...

On it with ya, although went 1st 5 with a slight concern about his stamina tonight. End of the day if it goes to BP's you have the advantage there anyway.

GL bud

[shocktopme]

.

Im likin timmy in this one too!!!!!!Good luck tonight!!!

[Redscot]

Garcia has never thrown to Laird.....and never had Reynolds behind the plate.....looks like a pass for me with those uncertainties added to the mix.

[Love The Action]

Damn...just got home from work and heard that Crawford's long fly ball on the bottom of the ninth for the BoSox would have been a homer in any other park in MLB but Fenway. That would have won our parlay...it's breaks like that which have killed me all July. I seriously cannot wait until August....hopefully this Giants ML play cashes for 2-2 day, push day on the units.

[NBA_Brosuf]

SF going strong right now. Possible shut out game in Philly.

2 more innings. lets go giants...Hold on giants.

[ManBearPig]

Well I'm glad I stayed away from the other games however I should've done the same with STL...man I suck at bases.

[Love The Action]

MLB Recap 7/27/11

2 - 2 = 0x

The parlay counts as a loss.

MLB Season 2011

298 - 276 = +20.075x

Just gotta grind...

[GGALLERT]

"Just gotta grind"..........So true, stick to your game LTA

[Love The Action]

Is it me or does tomorrow's card suck...

I'm sure I'll find something when I dig in deeper, but on first glance tomorrow's card is the ugliest in awhile.

[BigBoi]

I disagree. like nym, sf, az, col, oak, texas, philly, st louis, and tb.

[Love The Action]

I disagree. like nym, sf, az, col, oak, texas, philly, st louis, and tb.

Wow! Good luck...get that money Big Boi

[NBA_Brosuf]

a rare good morning here in the states to you LTA

I stayed up all night just to see you smile. Show us some winners for today if you can sir.

I'm getting myself ready for work so I'll talk to you later....

[Love The Action]

a rare good morning here in the states to you LTA

I stayed up all night just to see you smile. Show us some winners for today if you can sir.

I'm getting myself ready for work so I'll talk to you later....

Come on Brosuf...every morning you wake up is a GREAT morning...win or lose!

I'll throw out some winners, you throw out some jokes and everyone's happy!

Have a good one at work...gotta get going soon myself.

[Love The Action]

First real lean is the under in Cubs/Cardinals. My concern is Garza's poor performance on the road and against the Cardinals. I can get over the road performances, because those numbers are inflated by that horrible performance against the Natties when he gave up 7. Plus, there is a small sample size against the Cards of 2 games...still...this Cards lineup is hitting over .300 against Garza lifetime....

Is there any reason not to take the Mets and Gee over Wang and the Natties with this being Wang's first start in two years?

What will happen in the Pirates/Phillies games? I don't want to miss out on any more Pirates unders like in the Braves series. Morton throws a ton of ground balls - best in the league -- but can he keep it under with his poor history against the Phils...

[Dexter]

MLB Recap 7/27/11

2 - 2 = 0x

The parlay counts as a loss.

MLB Season 2011

298 - 276 = +20.075x

Just gotta grind...

great work LTA...one of the best here.

[JR007]

Well I'm glad I stayed away from the other games however I should've done the same with STL...man I suck at bases.

no, it is not you...very tough right now

[Love The Action]

MLB 7/29/11

Play #1

Mets -1 RL (0.50x ML (-120) & 0.50x -1.5 RL (+140) )

I can't find any reason not to fade Wang in his first start back from serious injury. Mets bats are hot right now, Gee has great stats against the Natties in two starts and his road stats are consistent with his home stats so this away start does not concern me. With Washington bats struggling a bit lately, I'm going to roll with the Mets in this spot on the -1 RL for 1x...I expect a lot of runs from the Mets against Wang. GL.

[Redscot]

MLB 7/29/11

Play #1

Mets -1 RL (0.50x ML (-120) & 0.50x -1.5 RL (+140) )

I can't find any reason not to fade Wang in his first start back from serious injury. Mets bats are hot right now, Gee has great stats against the Natties in two starts and his road stats are consistent with his home stats so this away start does not concern me. With Washington bats struggling a bit lately, I'm going to roll with the Mets in this spot on the -1 RL for 1x...I expect a lot of runs from the Mets against Wang. GL.

Good day to you LTA.

Just got in and getting a look at the card. Nat's on a downturn with a major question mark in Wang and the Met's got their mojo working right now. Gee has been better against RHB's and the Nats's are definitely RH heavy, and in 2 games against the Nat's in his career has been outstanding. Hope Thole is catching him, as his numbers with Paulino have been below par thus far (my new obsession catcher-pitcher relationship ).

1 more thing, who has the most road wins this year in MLB?

That's right, The MUTS! Washington has been formidable at home for that matter.

I always get scared backing my Metsies, but seems like it could warrant a strong play. Well, that's one less game I need to cap, tailing along.

[Redscot]

Good God! Jason Hammel and a 6 1/2 O/U line. What has this world come to.

[Love The Action]

MLB 7/29/11

Play #1

Mets -1 RL (0.50x ML (-120) & 0.50x -1.5 RL (+140) )

I can't find any reason not to fade Wang in his first start back from serious injury. Mets bats are hot right now, Gee has great stats against the Natties in two starts and his road stats are consistent with his home stats so this away start does not concern me. With Washington bats struggling a bit lately, I'm going to roll with the Mets in this spot on the -1 RL for 1x...I expect a lot of runs from the Mets against Wang. GL.

Play #2

Padres ML (-123) 1x (Locked)

Huge disparity in starting pitching to the advantage of the Padres. Plus, Stauffer has dominated the Rockies over his career. The Padres bats are always a concern, however, with Hammel on the mound, that concern is assuaged. I just don't see the Rockies beating Stauffer at home. GL.

[Redscot]

Play #2

Padres ML (-123) 1x (Locked)

Huge disparity in starting pitching to the advantage of the Padres. Plus, Stauffer has dominated the Rockies over his career. The Padres bats are always a concern, however, with Hammel on the mound, that concern is assuaged. I just don't see the Rockies beating Stauffer at home. GL.

Might have to tail that one just off the use of assuaged .

LTA you think Cecil can confound the Rangers again so close to their last meeting?

What you think of Minny/Oak? Haven't looked into it, 1st instinct 6 1/2 seems low.

[Love The Action]

Might have to tail that one just off the use of assuaged .

LTA you think Cecil can confound the Rangers again so close to their last meeting?

What you think of Minny/Oak? Haven't looked into it, 1st instinct 6 1/2 seems low.

Nope...but Im staying away from the side in that one...I do lean over...

[JR007]

Thought this worth posting

The Dodgers’ pitching has been keeping them in games. Here is a team that has shutout six of their last 25 opponents, that is an amazing 24% and they sit 10 games below .500. It is because their bats just don't make enough noise, and good pitching efforts get wasted. The Dodgers’ staff has allowed 46 runs in their last 16 games for less than 3 per contest, but has a losing record in their last 11. Arizona starter Joshua Collmenter isn't likely to give the light-hitting Dodgers’ offense much to hit, as he has allowed 3 runs in his last three starts. The D-Backs have problems solving lefthanders on the road, running their under tally to 15-7 in their last 22 when facing them on the road. The Dodgers are having similar issues facing right-hand pitching where they are 20-6-1 to the UNDER in their last 27. .

[Love The Action]

I am 90% sure that I will play that cubs under upon getting a better price and maybe the texas over as soon as I see the lineups. I also like the oakland over, but not sure yet..cubs under for sure though...

[Love The Action]

Thought this worth posting

The Dodgers’ pitching has been keeping them in games. Here is a team that has shutout six of their last 25 opponents, that is an amazing 24% and they sit 10 games below .500. It is because their bats just don't make enough noise, and good pitching efforts get wasted. The Dodgers’ staff has allowed 46 runs in their last 16 games for less than 3 per contest, but has a losing record in their last 11. Arizona starter Joshua Collmenter isn't likely to give the light-hitting Dodgers’ offense much to hit, as he has allowed 3 runs in his last three starts. The D-Backs have problems solving lefthanders on the road, running their under tally to 15-7 in their last 22 when facing them on the road. The Dodgers are having similar issues facing right-hand pitching where they are 20-6-1 to the UNDER in their last 27. .

Thanks...I don't disagree about the weak hitting dodgers...however, I don't trust Lilly to pitch to the under against the hot bats of AZ...good luck if you play it

[Redscot]

Take these stats for what they are worth (lifted from another post): Line up to 7.

Oak bats have been hot but...

Since 2009, Gio Gonzalez is 4-1 with a 1.41 ERA and 1.00 WHIP in starts following ones where he allowed 4 earned runs or more. Over these 8 starts, he has allowed 1 ER or less in 6 of the 8 starts. Full breakdown of earned runs below:
0 : three
1 : three
2 : one
3: one
In 2011, Francisco Liriano is 5-0 with a 1.45 ERA and 0.75 WHIP in starts following ones where he threw less than 90 pitches

[Love The Action]

For that rangers over, the roof is open and wind blowing across the field...not the best for the over...

[NBA_Brosuf]

Play #2

Padres ML (-123) 1x (Locked)

Huge disparity in starting pitching to the advantage of the Padres. Plus, Stauffer has dominated the Rockies over his career. The Padres bats are always a concern, however, with Hammel on the mound, that concern is assuaged. I just don't see the Rockies beating Stauffer at home. GL.

It is weird how I'm now seeing Co at +105 with value. Not a strong lean by my sponge bob square head but strong enough for me to challenge your pick on this one. LOL

I don't know where that value is coming from but it's there.

I'll root for the padres but I have to say it for the record and before game time. You know my style LTA. When I'm against your pick, I have an 85% of losing. LOL

[blumpkin]

LTA thoughts on the bos/chi total of 9? thx

[Love The Action]

LTA thoughts on the bos/chi total of 9? thx

Big pass for me....Floyd pitched better of late but it all comes down to that knuckler of wakefield...if it flutters, good chance for the under, if it rolls then over may hit...too much of a coinflip for me...bol.