LTA's MLB Plays

[JR007]

Nice hit. However, I think it was Matchbook that juiced it at -208...but that was at a total of 7 right before game time. The total opened at 8.5, then went down to 8 and then, only at Matchbook, it went down to 7 with -208 juice. Based on that line movement, which dropped the total from it's open, it seems to me that the books were protecting against the under. I understand that -208 juice is crazy on the over, but it was at 7 not at it's opening number of 8.5. Therefore, I don't understand how heavy juice on a lower number than the opener shows a lean to the over by Matchbook.

Can you help me out with this one? What am I missing? Thanks.

LTA
sorry, I meant matchbook, yeah, same on the pirates game.7 to 6.5.-156......i just took it blindly, because of the huge movement, ...to be honest, (matchbook) is a exchange...so it operates differently, A guy in players talk....posted, to watch these moves.....as matchbook is a "sharp" book.....wish i could answer but I do not know

[Love The Action]

GL today all, nice to have a thread to kick thoughts around without the hate-parade.

And I appreciate that the haters stay away....I just want a friendly thread that we can discuss our plays in and make some money for our families...speaking of which, good luck to everyone today! Lets have a big day!

[Redscot]

Good luck today my friend...are you laying off my M's today? I don't blame you lol...

LOL, was just thinking it over in my head. Honestly I think you put in more work than me so if I see you on a game I'll just give it a cursory glance, and 9 times out of 10 play it. I agree with your analysis, and think Hernandez keeps them in it. Just need to check and see where those M's runs are coming from, LOL.

What you seeing in the rest of the card? Odd day today methinks.

Pitt line starting to fall I see, started WAY high.

[JR007]

does anyone have knowledge of matchbook ????,

[Love The Action]

bol fta

You too pac man!

[Love The Action]

does anyone have knowledge of matchbook ????,

I view it as third most importent line moves after pinny and greek. I will pm you about my earlier question after work today. Bol...

[Love The Action]

LOL, was just thinking it over in my head. Honestly I think you put in more work than me so if I see you on a game I'll just give it a cursory glance, and 9 times out of 10 play it. I agree with your analysis, and think Hernandez keeps them in it. Just need to check and see where those M's runs are coming from, LOL.

What you seeing in the rest of the card? Odd day today methinks.

Pitt line starting to fall I see, started WAY high.

Gotta work now, but will post my leans and thoughts later once I have some more time...but I like fading hughes in this spot...hernandez should pitch well and the M's will be motivated to end tge streak. GL...

[Redscot]

Been holding off for fear of the jinx but it seems pretty safe now. Nice call man!

Looking forward to seeing your thoughts on the rest of the card. FYI seems like there was some player movement in Tor/St Louis/Wsox may effect some lineups tonight.

Continuing on with my Pitt line obsession today seems to be going up now! Wow, not on the Pirates myself, just find the line a bit curious.

[Love The Action]

MLB 7/27/11

Play #1

Seattle ML (+138) 1x (Locked)

Felix Hernandez v. Phil Hughes - I made a similar type value play on Saturday when I lost playing the Padres and Latos over Phillies and Kendrick. However, with this one, I think we cash with this value play despite the "streak." I just think there is too much value here at +138 for Hernandez facing off against Hughes when you consider the following:

• Hernandez's dominance versus Hughes' nature as a gascan - Whether on the road or at home, against lefties or righties, Hernandez dominates this pitching matchup in every category. Hernadez has a FIP of 3.12, xFIP of 3.12, tERA of 3.53 and SIERA of 3.16. Hughes sports a FIP of 6.26, xFIP of 5.91, tERA of 6.80 and SIERA of 5.58. That comes out to a almost 2-1 advantage in favor of Hernandez when it comes to their defense independent pitching stats. When you compare Hernadez's WHIP of 1.2 to Hughes' 1.95, Hernadez's K% of 22.8% to Hughes' 10.1%, Hernadez's BABIP of .299 to Hughes' .344, Hernadez's LOB% 72% to Hughes' 56.5% and Hernadez's GB/FB of 1.62 to Hughes' 0.54, it is unequivocally clear that Hughes does not belong pitching off the same mound as Hernandez, and that Hernandez should dominate this matchup.
• Situational Angle - Wednesday's game is an early get-away game with both teams' having the day off on Thursday. Therefore, Girardi will most likely rest a few of his regulars in order to get them two days off in a row and rest their veteran bodies for the big playoff push. On the other side, the Mariners are desperate for a win and will not rest anyone. Moreover, they will be motivated to the end the streak, end it against the Yankess and end it going into the break. This is a classic letdown spot for the Yankees and the M's have a situational edge in this one.
• Lineups v. SP's - Hernandez has had success against the Yankees, while Hughes has not pitched well against Seattle. Lifetime against the Yankees, Hernandez has a 2.98 ERA, with a 1.34 WHIP, going 5-3 and limiting them to a .231 (.245 BA against the current team). These are solid numbers compared to Hughes, whose lifetime numbers against Seattle are at around 1 point higher in ERA and 20 points in BA.
• Hughes has gotten shelled this year with an ERA over 12 at home.
• Seattle is actually scoring a little more lately. In their last 7 games, Seattle has scored 3,8,1,4,5,6,5 runs. That is a significant improvement of the 1 run they were averaging in the beginning of their losing streak. I think Seattle will need 4 to win tomorrow and I think they get it off Hughes.
• Due Factor - I do not put a great deal of credence or weight on this factor, but Seattle will win sooner or later and this pitching matchup presents the best opportunity and percentage of victory.
• Early money on Seattle - there has been a ten cent price drop on Seattle from +146 to +136 at Pinny and five cents at Greek from +142 to +137. Generally, early money is sharper than most.

At the end of the day, it is certainly possible that Seattle loses tomorrow and keeps the losing streak going. However, I think the situational angles with the getaway scenario leading to a letdown effort from the Yanks, when combined with the huge advantage in starting pitching, all at a price of +138, is too good to pass up. I'm rolling with
Seattle at +138 for 1x in this spot.
Good luck.

WINNER!

Now lets talk night games...back later if we decide to make any more plays....

[BigBoi]

Is Houston the play tonight?

[Love The Action]

Is Houston the play tonight?

No!!!!!

But the under intrigues me...bol...

[BigBoi]

LTA Ive been following your picks lately in baseball and always followed in Basketball. I do like under in Houston and St Louis. Like the Cards because theyre in the pennant race but Bud Norris has had success against the Cards.

[Redscot]

Leaning Cards under here as well. Norris has done well in limited sample against the Cards and Carpenter has dominated the 'Stros big bats. Norris has thrown to Corporan 5 games to the tune of a 2.90 era.

Pujol's and Holliday as always remain the concern......

Got an eye on the Mets and Dodgers but the line movement (don't have a paid service) is scaring me off there. Liked the Mets over at 9 but 9 1/2 I think is too much.

Against the grain but may consider the A's over, Minny m/l. Love the Brew crew but too much chalk.

Prolly gonna be a tame night for me here, unless I am convinced otherwise.....thoughts out there? LTA hit me with some knowledge bro.

[pacocn]

Lta great call on Mariners, didn't pull the trigger,
but it was a great spot.

[Love The Action]

Leaning Cards under here as well. Norris has done well in limited sample against the Cards and Carpenter has dominated the 'Stros big bats. Norris has thrown to Corporan 5 games to the tune of a 2.90 era.

Pujol's and Holliday as always remain the concern......

Got an eye on the Mets and Dodgers but the line movement (don't have a paid service) is scaring me off there. Liked the Mets over at 9 but 9 1/2 I think is too much.

Against the grain but may consider the A's over, Minny m/l. Love the Brew crew but too much chalk.

Prolly gonna be a tame night for me here, unless I am convinced otherwise.....thoughts out there? LTA hit me with some knowledge bro.

About to make some plays now...I like youur thoughts on the reds/mets...take over at 9, but no higher...look at rangers over...

[Redscot]

Just a quick thought for those that want to fade the Mets because of Beltran move....Die hard Mets fan here and if there is one thing this team has shown this year is resiliency. There have been umpteenth distractions on and off the field and Collins has kept them locked in. They have been road warriors. Not saying they will win, but they will not be overly phased by the Beltran trade imo, it has been expected all season. Honestly, the way this team's mojo works I would probably bet them to beat Arroyo in a slugfest....Cincy is getting over juiced since the trade announcement up to -150 here that is ridiculous.


F-it I swore off betting on my team but gonna throw a little down on them. Lets win one for Beltran! Got us a stud prospect in return too .

[Love The Action]

No 7pm plays...I love some of these later games...

Redscot - good luck on your mets play!

[Love The Action]

MLB 7/27/11

Play #1

Seattle ML (+138) 1x (Locked)

Felix Hernandez v. Phil Hughes - I made a similar type value play on Saturday when I lost playing the Padres and Latos over Phillies and Kendrick. However, with this one, I think we cash with this value play despite the "streak." I just think there is too much value here at +138 for Hernandez facing off against Hughes when you consider the following:

• Hernandez's dominance versus Hughes' nature as a gascan - Whether on the road or at home, against lefties or righties, Hernandez dominates this pitching matchup in every category. Hernadez has a FIP of 3.12, xFIP of 3.12, tERA of 3.53 and SIERA of 3.16. Hughes sports a FIP of 6.26, xFIP of 5.91, tERA of 6.80 and SIERA of 5.58. That comes out to a almost 2-1 advantage in favor of Hernandez when it comes to their defense independent pitching stats. When you compare Hernadez's WHIP of 1.2 to Hughes' 1.95, Hernadez's K% of 22.8% to Hughes' 10.1%, Hernadez's BABIP of .299 to Hughes' .344, Hernadez's LOB% 72% to Hughes' 56.5% and Hernadez's GB/FB of 1.62 to Hughes' 0.54, it is unequivocally clear that Hughes does not belong pitching off the same mound as Hernandez, and that Hernandez should dominate this matchup.
• Situational Angle - Wednesday's game is an early get-away game with both teams' having the day off on Thursday. Therefore, Girardi will most likely rest a few of his regulars in order to get them two days off in a row and rest their veteran bodies for the big playoff push. On the other side, the Mariners are desperate for a win and will not rest anyone. Moreover, they will be motivated to the end the streak, end it against the Yankess and end it going into the break. This is a classic letdown spot for the Yankees and the M's have a situational edge in this one.
• Lineups v. SP's - Hernandez has had success against the Yankees, while Hughes has not pitched well against Seattle. Lifetime against the Yankees, Hernandez has a 2.98 ERA, with a 1.34 WHIP, going 5-3 and limiting them to a .231 (.245 BA against the current team). These are solid numbers compared to Hughes, whose lifetime numbers against Seattle are at around 1 point higher in ERA and 20 points in BA.
• Hughes has gotten shelled this year with an ERA over 12 at home.
• Seattle is actually scoring a little more lately. In their last 7 games, Seattle has scored 3,8,1,4,5,6,5 runs. That is a significant improvement of the 1 run they were averaging in the beginning of their losing streak. I think Seattle will need 4 to win tomorrow and I think they get it off Hughes.
• Due Factor - I do not put a great deal of credence or weight on this factor, but Seattle will win sooner or later and this pitching matchup presents the best opportunity and percentage of victory.
• Early money on Seattle - there has been a ten cent price drop on Seattle from +146 to +136 at Pinny and five cents at Greek from +142 to +137. Generally, early money is sharper than most.

At the end of the day, it is certainly possible that Seattle loses tomorrow and keeps the losing streak going. However, I think the situational angles with the getaway scenario leading to a letdown effort from the Yanks, when combined with the huge advantage in starting pitching, all at a price of +138, is too good to pass up. I'm rolling with Seattle at +138 for 1x in this spot. Good
luck.

Play #2

Minny/Texas over (10) 1x (Locked)

Both pitchers struggle against todays opposing lineups. The wind and jet steam should play a factor tonight. Duensing has a GB/FB of 1.17, while Lewis is 0.61.Consequently, I expect a lot of fly balls tonight and that is conducive to the over because those balls will fly out of the Texas Ballpark. Both bullpens are weak in the bottom five mlb and I expect a lot of runs tonight. I'm rolling with the over for 1x. Good luck!

[blumpkin]

thoughts on col/la total of 7.5?

[Redscot]

Play #2

Minny/Texas over (10) 1x (Locked)

Both pitchers struggle against todays opposing lineups. The wind and jet steam should play a factor tonight. Duensing has a GB/FB of 1.17, while Lewis is 0.61.Consequently, I expect a lot of fly balls tonight and that is conducive to the over because those balls will fly out of the Texas Ballpark. Both bullpens are weak in the bottom five mlb and I expect a lot of runs tonight. I'm rolling with the over for 1x. Good luck!

Nice, gonna hit that one up with ya. Sprinkle in a little Guccione doesn't hurt.

[Love The Action]

Nice, gonna hit that one up with ya. Sprinkle in a little Guccione doesn't hurt.

Exactly!

No play on the cards under...I think its too hot, which means the bullpens will be really important and I don't trust houstons bp...gl if you play it.

[Love The Action]

Late leans:

Devil Rays ML
Rox/Dodgers over
Dodgers -1 RL

Still need to cap the padres game...rays probably strongest lean but I have more work to doin that one as well. Heading home now after work...back in about an hour...lets get some runs in texas!

[BiffTFinancial]

Exactly!

No play on the cards under...I think its too hot, which means the bullpens will be really important and I don't trust houstons bp...gl if you play it.

i considered playing FF under instead of game under because of the pens. lotta juice. hoping that xFIPs win out over ERAs....

[Love The Action]

Lta great call on Mariners, didn't pull the trigger,
but it was a great spot.

Thanks bud!

[Love The Action]

Leaning Cards under here as well. Norris has done well in limited sample against the Cards and Carpenter has dominated the 'Stros big bats. Norris has thrown to Corporan 5 games to the tune of a 2.90 era.

Pujol's and Holliday as always remain the concern......

Got an eye on the Mets and Dodgers but the line movement (don't have a paid service) is scaring me off there. Liked the Mets over at 9 but 9 1/2 I think is too much.

Against the grain but may consider the A's over, Minny m/l. Love the Brew crew but too much chalk.

Prolly gonna be a tame night for me here, unless I am convinced otherwise.....thoughts out there? LTA hit me with some knowledge bro.

Hope you played that Mets over. I am so pissed I passed. I basically had both the Reds/Mets over and Minny/Texas over rated almost the same (Minny/Tex a little higher). I went with the Tex over because I hate playing 9.5 overs, which was the total in the Mets game in favor of the Tex over 10, so at least I have the chance for the push. We'll see... only 4 runs through 5 innings in the Texas game. My other over lean on Boston/Kc easily hit, so I was stupid in not playing that one as well. I bit surprised how well Cain and Hamels pitched, considering their poor histories against these lineups. That was the sole reason I laid off that one... Oh well, back to the late games. Let's see if we can get one more play out of tonight.

[Redscot]

Hope you played that Mets over. I am so pissed I passed. I basically had both the Reds/Mets over and Minny/Texas over rated almost the same (Minny/Tex a little higher). I went with the Tex over because I hate playing 9.5 overs, which was the total in the Mets game in favor of the Tex over 10, so at least I have the chance for the push. We'll see... only 4 runs through 5 innings in the Texas game. My other over lean on Boston/Kc easily hit, so I was stupid in not playing that one as well. I bit surprised how well Cain and Hamels pitched, considering their poor histories against these lineups. That was the sole reason I laid off that one... Oh well, back to the late games. Let's see if we can get one more play out of tonight.

Didn't play the Mets over. Did roll with Minny m/l - r/l combo and the over, still think we get that over. Also, played Pitt small, you know I was obsessed with that line today, it was just sucking me in all day... time will tell if they win,but the value was there at that price.

Zona is really tempting, they hit lefties and the Pad's, well they just suck! Still, saw some stats earlier that gave me some hesitation...trying to find them now.

Will be checking in to see what ya got. You have the Seattle game to hang your hat on today bro, I pussed out.

[Love The Action]

Didn't play the Mets over. Did roll with Minny m/l - r/l combo and the over, still think we get that over. Also, played Pitt small, you know I was obsessed with that line today, it was just sucking me in all day... time will tell if they win,but the value was there at that price.

Zona is really tempting, they hit lefties and the Pad's, well they just suck! Still, saw some stats earlier that gave me some hesitation...trying to find them now.

Will be checking in to see what ya got. You have the Seattle game to hang your hat on today bro, I pussed out.

I hope you get that Pit game...ballsy call. Big RLM play though, so you know big money had your back. I sort of lean Padres, but only if you believe Luebke is the real deal. I am not convinced.

I might just sit the night games out to be honest. Still finishing up. I wanted to take the Rays, but if you check out his history against that lineup, you will not see a lot of success for Shields. Very surprising...

At the same time, can a struggling Cahill lead Oakland to three victories in a row over the Rays who are one of the best road teams in the game?

[Love The Action]

MLB 7/27/11

Play #1

Seattle ML (+138) 1x (Locked)

Felix Hernandez v. Phil Hughes - I made a similar type value play on Saturday when I lost playing the Padres and Latos over Phillies and Kendrick. However, with this one, I think we cash with this value play despite the "streak." I just think there is too much value here at +138 for Hernandez facing off against Hughes when you consider the following:

• Hernandez's dominance versus Hughes' nature as a gascan - Whether on the road or at home, against lefties or righties, Hernandez dominates this pitching matchup in every category. Hernadez has a FIP of 3.12, xFIP of 3.12, tERA of 3.53 and SIERA of 3.16. Hughes sports a FIP of 6.26, xFIP of 5.91, tERA of 6.80 and SIERA of 5.58. That comes out to a almost 2-1 advantage in favor of Hernandez when it comes to their defense independent pitching stats. When you compare Hernadez's WHIP of 1.2 to Hughes' 1.95, Hernadez's K% of 22.8% to Hughes' 10.1%, Hernadez's BABIP of .299 to Hughes' .344, Hernadez's LOB% 72% to Hughes' 56.5% and Hernadez's GB/FB of 1.62 to Hughes' 0.54, it is unequivocally clear that Hughes does not belong pitching off the same mound as Hernandez, and that Hernandez should dominate this matchup.
• Situational Angle - Wednesday's game is an early get-away game with both teams' having the day off on Thursday. Therefore, Girardi will most likely rest a few of his regulars in order to get them two days off in a row and rest their veteran bodies for the big playoff push. On the other side, the Mariners are desperate for a win and will not rest anyone. Moreover, they will be motivated to the end the streak, end it against the Yankess and end it going into the break. This is a classic letdown spot for the Yankees and the M's have a situational edge in this one.
• Lineups v. SP's - Hernandez has had success against the Yankees, while Hughes has not pitched well against Seattle. Lifetime against the Yankees, Hernandez has a 2.98 ERA, with a 1.34 WHIP, going 5-3 and limiting them to a .231 (.245 BA against the current team). These are solid numbers compared to Hughes, whose lifetime numbers against Seattle are at around 1 point higher in ERA and 20 points in BA.
• Hughes has gotten shelled this year with an ERA over 12 at home.
• Seattle is actually scoring a little more lately. In their last 7 games, Seattle has scored 3,8,1,4,5,6,5 runs. That is a significant improvement of the 1 run they were averaging in the beginning of their losing streak. I think Seattle will need 4 to win tomorrow and I think they get it off Hughes.
• Due Factor - I do not put a great deal of credence or weight on this factor, but Seattle will win sooner or later and this pitching matchup presents the best opportunity and percentage of victory.
• Early money on Seattle - there has been a ten cent price drop on Seattle from +146 to +136 at Pinny and five cents at Greek from +142 to +137. Generally, early money is sharper than most.

At the end of the day, it is certainly possible that Seattle loses tomorrow and keeps the losing streak going. However, I think the situational angles with the getaway scenario leading to a letdown effort from the Yanks, when combined with the huge advantage in starting pitching, all at a price of +138, is too good to pass up. I'm rolling with Seattle at +138 for 1x in this spot. Good
luck.

Play #2

Minny/Texas over (10) 1x (Locked)

Both pitchers struggle against todays opposing lineups. The wind and jet steam should play a factor tonight. Duensing has a GB/FB of 1.17, while Lewis is 0.61.Consequently, I expect a lot of fly balls tonight and that is conducive to the over because those balls will fly out of the Texas Ballpark. Both bullpens are weak in the bottom five mlb and I expect a lot of runs tonight. I'm rolling with the over for 1x. Good luck!

Play #3

Tampa Bay -1RL (0.375x Rays ML (-123) and 0.375x Rays -1.5 RL (+130) )

[Love The Action]

For the Rays game, I just think, despite previous success of Oakland's lineup versus Shields, that this is a different year and a different Shields. As we know from our recent backing him in the under in his last game v. NYY, the guys is the real deal. His advanced stats are top 10 to 20 stuff. Cahill on the other hand is heading in the opposite direction. He's been getting the ball up, which is deadly for sinker pitcher. He has a WHIP over 16 and ERA over 8 in his last three starts. Oakland has been hitting quite well....310 in last ten games versus righties in fact. However, Shields is a gamer and I think he shuts Oakland's lineup down today. The Rays absolutely have to win this game after Price lost yesterday. To me, this question came down to the odds of Oakland beating Tampa three days in a row, with a high caliber pitcher such as Shields on the mound... those odds are in favor of Tampa winning in this spot and winning by more than 1. Therefore, I'm rolling with the rays for 0.75x on the -1RL. Good luck.

[BiffTFinancial]

BOL with the Rays LTA.

[Love The Action]

BOL with the Rays LTA.

Thanks Biff...good luck on your plays as well

[Redscot]

Hitting the hay LTA. On paper should be a winner, just wondering where Tampa's heads are at lately...?

Hoping to wake up and see another winner for you.

[Love The Action]

Nope...should have just stuck with the Mariners win and called it a day. Turned a nice winning day into a medium loss. Frustrating.

[DDT]

Nope...should have just stuck with the Mariners win and called it a day. Turned a nice winning day into a medium loss. Frustrating.

You just can't pass up the Action

[Love The Action]

You just can't pass up the Action