LTA's MLB Plays

[Love The Action]

Lta, i do not see the cubs game being a score fest.
Neither team is in good form w/their bats, weather
looks like a non-factor, and the ump is a mild Over
ump. I could see Wandy and Wells (W&W) righting
the ship against non-potent lineups.

Anything is possible, but I think we see a lot of runs today. Both Wells and Wandy have had success in the past. However, Wandy is a much, much better pitcher at home than on the road and Wells just sucks this year. In his last three games, Wandy has given up 4, 5 and 5 runs. Wells, has given up at least 4 runs in each of his last ten starts except for 3 of them (where he gave up 2, 3 and 1). Coming into this game, both teams have hit at least .270 against Wells and Wandy. Both bullpens are weak and tend to give up runs and with rainy weather comes rain delays, stiff arms and overworked bullpens. I will probably not take the over at 9.5, but let's see if it goes down to 9. Then we have an option on the over. I would never take an under involving Randy Wells at this point. Good luck in whatever you choose.

[Redscot]

Know your busy bro, just curious if you capped the total for the S.F. game?

[Love The Action]

Know your busy bro, just curious if you capped the total for the S.F. game?

No worries. I have about another hour of SBR/capping time before leave.

I like the over in that one. Not a fan of Wolf and Vogelsong remains suspect. If they can get 6 off of Cain and Marcum yesterday, they can get 7 off of Wolf and Vogelsong today. We'll see. I have not gone in-depth in that one yet. I have about two hours on the road coming up, so my wife will drive and I will finish capping the card. What do you think?

[Redscot]

No worries. I have about another hour of SBR/capping time before leave.

I like the over in that one. Not a fan of Wolf and Vogelsong remains suspect. If they can get 6 off of Cain and Marcum yesterday, they can get 7 off of Wolf and Vogelsong today. We'll see. I have not gone in-depth in that one yet. I have about two hours on the road coming up, so my wife will drive and I will finish capping the card. What do you think?

Agreed, strong over lean for much the same reasons. Through in Holbrook behind the dish and makes me very tempted. My local just moved from 6 1/2 to 7 .

Leaning under in K.C. too.

[Full-Grown]

MLB 7/23/11 Play #1 Padres ML (+129) 1.25x (Locked) I believe this is way too much value to pass up for this pitching matchup. I predict that by gametime, "sharps" will have this closing price down to +120 or less. Many people might just look at Kendrick's ERA in the mid 3's and his WHIP at 1.3 and figure he is a solid pitcher that should dominate the weak-hitting Padres. However, if you look behind the standard stats, what you will find is a HUGE disparity in starting pitching. Latos is having an excellent, if not unlucky, season. Whereas, Kendrick is not pitching well, but the Phillies' success is doing a good job of hiding his mistakes. First, Latos has the #9 tERA in the league at 2.94, compared to Kendrick's 4.86 which is in the bottom quarter of the league. Latos' FIP is 3.34, xFIP is 3.75 and SIERRA is 3.66, all ranked no worse than top 60; while Kendrick's FIP, xFIP and SIERRA are in the mid to high 4's and all rank in the bottom third of the league. Plus, when you look at the luck factor, Kendrick has a horseshoe up his ass, while Latos has been fairly unlucky despite his ability to strike people out. Latos has a BABIP and LOB% of .309 and 68.7%, while Kendrick has .271 and 75.4% respectively. This is where we find our value in this play. Everyone is going to look at the ERA and WHIPs of these two players and see that Kendrick (3.34 ERA) has slightly better numbers than Latos (4.02 ERA). However, when you go beyond the smoke and mirrors of standard stats, you see that Kendrick (i) has been getting lucky as evidenced by his low BABIP and high LOB% and (ii) is due for a big regression. However, if you look at Latos' .309 BABIP and 68.7 LOB%, it is clear that (i) he has a been a bit unlucky and (ii) he should start to catch more breaks as the year progresses. You can find more evidence of an upcoming Latos hot streak if you look at his rare ability to get strikeouts. Generally, solid strikeout pitchers are the only type of pitcher that can sustain low BABIP's and high LOB% throughout the season because of their ability to get out of jams. However, even though he is a great strike out pitcher, Latos is still carrying an unlucky BABIP and LOB%. I have a feeling that luck is about to change as evidenced by Latos' K/9 of 8.22 and K% of 21.4% (both top 20 MLB). Kendrick on the other hand is rocking a 3.61 K9 and a 9.5% K%, which is pathetic. All of these numbers are the reason we have huge value on Latos in this spot. I expect most people to bet the Phillies thinking the pitching matchup is no worse than even, while we know that we have a huge advantage with Latos at +129. The clincher for this play is the individual matchups between the Phillies hitters and Latos. Lifetime, the Phillies hitters that will be facing Latos tomorrow are hitting .229 in 53 at bats, with Latos' career ERA against Philly at 3.86. Compare that to Kendrick and we see that he has a 5.91 lifetime ERA against the Padres and poor results overall. The Padres have a top 3 MLB bullpen and are ranked top 12 in defense, whereas the Phillies are ranked around 20th in both categories. While the Phillies have a slightly better offense, the Padres have been hitting well lately; especially, Will Veneble in the leadoff spot who has been a huge spark-plug in leading the Padres to their sweep of the Marlins coming into this series. We saw the Padres bats limited by Hamels on Friday, but on Saturday I think the Padres score at least 4 runs to win the game 4-2 against the Phillies in Philly. I don't bet against top 10 MLB teams often, but you can beat them if you pick your spots. I think this spot presents some hidden value. If I see the price go up from the "public" (whoever that is these days) pound Philly, I may add another .25x-.50x to this play, whereas if I see the price go down from RLM, I may add a little more. I believe we have a better than 50% chance of cashing this play, and at +129, this is almost a must play for that value. I'm rolling with the Padres ML for 1.25x in this spot and may add to it tomorrow. Good luck.

Love the SD play. Nice pitching advantage and SD's sweep against Florida was against 3 righties. With nice plus money and rlm, let's get it!!!

[blumpkin]

LTA just got sd at +160 with my local here in phila. if you get a chance can you let me know your thoughts on TB/kc and the over in wash/la over 7. thx for all your hard work.

[Redscot]

Lta, i do not see the cubs game being a score fest.
Neither team is in good form w/their bats, weather
looks like a non-factor, and the ump is a mild Over
ump. I could see Wandy and Wells (W&W) righting
the ship against non-potent lineups.

Good points pacocn, one other consideration is Rodriguez is far more effective against LHB's Cubs are throwing an all RH lineup at him today.

[Love The Action]

Agreed, strong over lean for much the same reasons. Through in Holbrook behind the dish and makes me very tempted. My local just moved from 6 1/2 to 7 .

Leaning under in K.C. too.

I really like the KC under as well. Might lock that in.

[Love The Action]

Love the SD play. Nice pitching advantage and SD's sweep against Florida was against 3 righties. With nice plus money and rlm, let's get it!!!

Let's get it

[Love The Action]

LTA just got sd at +160 with my local here in phila. if you get a chance can you let me know your thoughts on TB/kc and the over in wash/la over 7. thx for all your hard work.

I lean under in the TB/KC game. No lean on the side right now.

No lean on the Wash/LA game right now. On first glance, maybe lean over but I have not capped that game properly yet.

[homosayswhat]

Padres have no chance today. simply not enough offense here. Latos is being made out to be CY YOUNG here folks. this game wont even be close with the Phils winning so easily

[Love The Action]

Padres have no chance today. simply not enough offense here. Latos is being made out to be CY YOUNG here folks. this game wont even be close with the Phils winning so easily

We'll see. That's why they play the game. Good luck on your plays.

[shocktopme]

hey

Whats up my friend?You like under 8 in Phils game???If ya have time I'll check back in...Thanx

[Love The Action]

Whats up my friend?You like under 8 in Phils game???If ya have time I'll check back in...Thanx

No lean on the total in that one, sorry. That is pretty much a coinflip to me...good luck if you play it.

[Love The Action]

MLB 7/23/11

Play #1

Padres ML (+129) 1.25x (Locked)

I believe this is way too much value to pass up for this pitching matchup. I predict that by gametime, "sharps" will have this closing price down to +120 or less. Many people might just look at Kendrick's ERA in the mid 3's and his WHIP at 1.3 and figure he is a solid pitcher that should dominate the weak-hitting Padres. However, if you look behind the standard stats, what you will find is a HUGE disparity in starting pitching. Latos is having an excellent, if not unlucky, season. Whereas, Kendrick is not pitching well, but the Phillies' success is doing a good job of hiding his mistakes. First, Latos has the #9 tERA in the league at 2.94, compared to Kendrick's 4.86 which is in the bottom quarter of the league. Latos' FIP is 3.34, xFIP is 3.75 and SIERRA is 3.66, all ranked no worse than top 60; while Kendrick's FIP, xFIP and SIERRA are in the mid to high 4's and all rank in the bottom third of the league. Plus, when you look at the luck factor, Kendrick has a horseshoe up his ass, while Latos has been fairly unlucky despite his ability to strike people out. Latos has a BABIP and LOB% of .309 and 68.7%, while Kendrick has .271 and 75.4% respectively. This is where we find our value in this play. Everyone is going to look at the ERA and WHIPs of these two players and see that Kendrick (3.34 ERA) has slightly better numbers than Latos (4.02 ERA). However, when you go beyond the smoke and mirrors of standard stats, you see that Kendrick (i) has been getting lucky as evidenced by his low BABIP and high LOB% and (ii) is due for a big regression. However, if you look at Latos' .309 BABIP and 68.7 LOB%, it is clear that (i) he has a been a bit unlucky and (ii) he should start to catch more breaks as the year progresses. You can find more evidence of an upcoming Latos hot streak if you look at his rare ability to get strikeouts. Generally, solid strikeout pitchers are the only type of pitcher that can sustain low BABIP's and high LOB% throughout the season because of their ability to get out of jams. However, even though he is a great strike out pitcher, Latos is still carrying an unlucky BABIP and LOB%. I have a feeling that luck is about to change as evidenced by Latos' K/9 of 8.22 and K% of 21.4% (both top 20 MLB). Kendrick on the other hand is rocking a 3.61 K9 and a 9.5% K%, which is pathetic. All of these numbers are the reason we have huge value on Latos in this spot. I expect most people to bet the Phillies thinking the pitching matchup is no worse than even, while we know that we have a huge advantage with Latos at +129. The clincher for this play is the individual matchups between the Phillies hitters and Latos. Lifetime, the Phillies hitters that will be facing Latos tomorrow are hitting .229 in 53 at bats, with Latos' career ERA against Philly at 3.86. Compare that to Kendrick and we see that he has a 5.91 lifetime ERA against the Padres and poor results overall. The Padres have a top 3 MLB bullpen and are ranked top 12 in defense, whereas the Phillies are ranked around 20th in both categories. While the Phillies have a slightly better offense, the Padres have been hitting well lately; especially, Will Veneble in the leadoff spot who has been a huge spark-plug in leading the Padres to their sweep of the Marlins coming into this series. We saw the Padres bats limited by Hamels on Friday, but on Saturday I think the Padres score at least 4 runs to win the game 4-2 against the Phillies in Philly. I don't bet against top 10 MLB teams often, but you can beat them if you pick your spots. I think this spot presents some hidden value. If I see the price go up from the "public" (whoever that is these days) pound Philly, I may add another .25x-.50x to this play, whereas if I see the price go down from RLM, I may add a little more. I believe we have a better than 50% chance of cashing this play, and at +129, this is almost a must play for that value. I'm rolling with the Padres ML for 1.25x in this spot and may add to it tomorrow. Good luck.

Play #2

Detroit/Minny over (8.5)(-120) 1x (Locked)

Sorry guys, really short on time this morning. We're heading up to my buddy's cottage for the weekend and trying to get a baby read for the road is a bit hectic. Anyway, as far as this play goes, I really hate two things: (1) paying -120 on a total ever and (2) playing against Dexter's autobets. However, I gotta do what I gotta do. I locked this on in a couple hours ago and the line is up to -125 or (9) in some places. You have Baker who is generally a very solid starter, but in this game is making his first start off the DL because of a sore flexor muscle. He threw 50 pitches on the side the other day and stated that he felt good but just needed to block it out of his mind and fight through it. Those kind of comments do not sound to me like someone who is 100% healthy. Plus, even if he is, he has horrible numbers against the Tigers and this lineup who has lit him up to the tune of a .333 BA in 287 AB's over his career. On the other side, I have no confidence in Penny this year. His FIP, xFIP, tERA and SIERA are all above 4.5. Plus, against the Twins and this lineup, he has also gotten shelled to the tune of a .338 BA in 74AB's and an ERA above 5. With Penny's road ERA this year above 6.50, I think we see Minny score quite a bit. Because I don't trust Baker in a weakened state of mind to handle the top 5 MLB Tigers' offense and I expect Minny to rough up Penny, I'm rolling with the over here for 1x. Good luck.

Play #3

Astros/Cubs over (9)(-115) 1x (Locked)

Just got -115 for a few moments with one of my locals, so I locked it in. Most of the market is still at 9.5 or juicing the over 9 at -120 or more. We have a slight wind from SW blowing out to right center. While I have backed Rodriguez on unders more than once this season and cashed, I think we see over 10 runs today. Rodriguez generally has good numbers, however, those numbers inflate (1) when he is on the road and (2) against right handed hitters. The Cubs will be throwing a full right handed lineup at Wandy today and I think they cross home multiple times today. The Cubs lineup has hit .274 against him in his career and he carries a lifetime 4.04 ERA against Chicago teams. Both those numbers inflate outside of Houston. On the other side, Wells has pitched poorly throughout this season and does not see able to put it together. His numbers are atrocious and Hunter Pence and Lee have hurt him in the past. The Stros are also hitting over .270 against Wells and I do not expect Wells to stop them today. There is a chance or rain stoppages in Chicago which should play to the over's favor if the bullpens are forced to take over and we have a slight over ump in Bucknor who sports 9 r/p/gm average and strike rate of 62.8% (not good or bad for an over). I think we have enough favoring the over in this spot and I'm rolling that way for 1x. Good luck.

[Redscot]

GL on the Over LTA, I would join you if I could grab it at 9. Local at 9 1/2 -105, so gonna pass. I agree with your thoughts on the game though and will probably make a little action play on the Cubs tt 4.5 over.

[Love The Action]

In the other early game, I lean to the Yanks -1RL, but that's a PASS for me. Good luck if you play that game!

[Love The Action]

GL on the Over LTA, I would join you if I could grab it at 9. Local at 9 1/2 -105, so gonna pass. I agree with your thoughts on the game though and will probably make a little action play on the Cubs tt 4.5 over.

Good luck on all your plays today my friend! Enjoy your Saturday with the fam and make some money!

I'm heading out in about 20 minutes, but will post the rest of my plays by phone on the road. Good luck to everyone today!

[Love The Action]

It's looking pretty certain that I will play the Brewers/Giants over...

[Redscot]

Same to you LTA, have a nice relaxing day with the fam, and bring home the bacon!

BOL to all in here

p.s. just saw the Reds lineup, Brandon Phillips cleanup today, whoa. Also appears Howard resting in Philly.

[Love The Action]

Possible big play in the SD/Philly game tomorrow...can't wait to see what the opening total is...

I'm hitting the road. I'll check back in to post the rest of today's card. BOL...

[shocktopme]

'

Thanx friend!!!!keep up the good work!!!!

[Love The Action]

MLB 7/23/11

Play #1

Padres ML (+129) 1.25x (Locked)

I believe this is way too much value to pass up for this pitching matchup. I predict that by gametime, "sharps" will have this closing price down to +120 or less. Many people might just look at Kendrick's ERA in the mid 3's and his WHIP at 1.3 and figure he is a solid pitcher that should dominate the weak-hitting Padres. However, if you look behind the standard stats, what you will find is a HUGE disparity in starting pitching. Latos is having an excellent, if not unlucky, season. Whereas, Kendrick is not pitching well, but the Phillies' success is doing a good job of hiding his mistakes. First, Latos has the #9 tERA in the league at 2.94, compared to Kendrick's 4.86 which is in the bottom quarter of the league. Latos' FIP is 3.34, xFIP is 3.75 and SIERRA is 3.66, all ranked no worse than top 60; while Kendrick's FIP, xFIP and SIERRA are in the mid to high 4's and all rank in the bottom third of the league. Plus, when you look at the luck factor, Kendrick has a horseshoe up his ass, while Latos has been fairly unlucky despite his ability to strike people out. Latos has a BABIP and LOB% of .309 and 68.7%, while Kendrick has .271 and 75.4% respectively. This is where we find our value in this play. Everyone is going to look at the ERA and WHIPs of these two players and see that Kendrick (3.34 ERA) has slightly better numbers than Latos (4.02 ERA). However, when you go beyond the smoke and mirrors of standard stats, you see that Kendrick (i) has been getting lucky as evidenced by his low BABIP and high LOB% and (ii) is due for a big regression. However, if you look at Latos' .309 BABIP and 68.7 LOB%, it is clear that (i) he has a been a bit unlucky and (ii) he should start to catch more breaks as the year progresses. You can find more evidence of an upcoming Latos hot streak if you look at his rare ability to get strikeouts. Generally, solid strikeout pitchers are the only type of pitcher that can sustain low BABIP's and high LOB% throughout the season because of their ability to get out of jams. However, even though he is a great strike out pitcher, Latos is still carrying an unlucky BABIP and LOB%. I have a feeling that luck is about to change as evidenced by Latos' K/9 of 8.22 and K% of 21.4% (both top 20 MLB). Kendrick on the other hand is rocking a 3.61 K9 and a 9.5% K%, which is pathetic. All of these numbers are the reason we have huge value on Latos in this spot. I expect most people to bet the Phillies thinking the pitching matchup is no worse than even, while we know that we have a huge advantage with Latos at +129. The clincher for this play is the individual matchups between the Phillies hitters and Latos. Lifetime, the Phillies hitters that will be facing Latos tomorrow are hitting .229 in 53 at bats, with Latos' career ERA against Philly at 3.86. Compare that to Kendrick and we see that he has a 5.91 lifetime ERA against the Padres and poor results overall. The Padres have a top 3 MLB bullpen and are ranked top 12 in defense, whereas the Phillies are ranked around 20th in both categories. While the Phillies have a slightly better offense, the Padres have been hitting well lately; especially, Will Veneble in the leadoff spot who has been a huge spark-plug in leading the Padres to their sweep of the Marlins coming into this series. We saw the Padres bats limited by Hamels on Friday, but on Saturday I think the Padres score at least 4 runs to win the game 4-2 against the Phillies in Philly. I don't bet against top 10 MLB teams often, but you can beat them if you pick your spots. I think this spot presents some hidden value. If I see the price go up from the "public" (whoever that is these days) pound Philly, I may add another .25x-.50x to this play, whereas if I see the price go down from RLM, I may add a little more. I believe we have a better than 50% chance of cashing this play, and at +129, this is almost a must play for that value. I'm rolling with the Padres ML for 1.25x in this spot and may add to it tomorrow. Good luck.

Play #2

Detroit/Minny over (8.5)(-120) 1x (Locked)

Sorry guys, really short on time this morning. We're heading up to my buddy's cottage for the weekend and trying to get a baby read for the road is a bit hectic. Anyway, as far as this play goes, I really hate two things: (1) paying -120 on a total ever and (2) playing against Dexter's autobets. However, I gotta do what I gotta do. I locked this on in a couple hours ago and the line is up to -125 or (9) in some places. You have Baker who is generally a very solid starter, but in this game is making his first start off the DL because of a sore flexor muscle. He threw 50 pitches on the side the other day and stated that he felt good but just needed to block it out of his mind and fight through it. Those kind of comments do not sound to me like someone who is 100% healthy. Plus, even if he is, he has horrible numbers against the Tigers and this lineup who has lit him up to the tune of a .333 BA in 287 AB's over his career. On the other side, I have no confidence in Penny this year. His FIP, xFIP, tERA and SIERA are all above 4.5. Plus, against the Twins and this lineup, he has also gotten shelled to the tune of a .338 BA in 74AB's and an ERA above 5. With Penny's road ERA this year above 6.50, I think we see Minny score quite a bit. Because I don't trust Baker in a weakened state of mind to handle the top 5 MLB Tigers' offense and I expect Minny to rough up Penny, I'm rolling with the over here for 1x. Good luck.

Play #3

Astros/Cubs over (9)(-115) 1x (Locked)

Just got -115 for a few moments with one of my locals, so I locked it in. Most of the market is still at 9.5 or juicing the over 9 at -120 or more. We have a slight wind from SW blowing out to right center. While I have backed Rodriguez on unders more than once this season and cashed, I think we see over 10 runs today. Rodriguez generally has good numbers, however, those numbers inflate (1) when he is on the road and (2) against right handed hitters. The Cubs will be throwing a full right handed lineup at Wandy today and I think they cross home multiple times today. The Cubs lineup has hit .274 against him in his career and he carries a lifetime 4.04 ERA against Chicago teams. Both those numbers inflate outside of Houston. On the other side, Wells has pitched poorly throughout this season and does not see able to put it together. His numbers are atrocious and Hunter Pence and Lee have hurt him in the past. The Stros are also hitting over .270 against Wells and I do not expect Wells to stop them today. There is a chance or rain stoppages in Chicago which should play to the over's favor if the bullpens are forced to take over and we have a slight over ump in Bucknor who sports 9 r/p/gm average
and strike rate of 62.8% (not good or bad
for an over). I think we have enough
favoring the over in this spot and I'm
rolling that way for 1x. Good luck.

Play #4

TB/KC under (9) (-105) 1x (Locked)

Play #5

Brewers/Giants over (7) 1x (Locked)

[Love The Action]

Play #6

Mets ML (+112) 1.5x (Locked)

[Cannon]

chasing?

[Love The Action]

chasing?

Not at all. All of these were posted leans that I said I was playing this morning. Look above.

Enjoying a nice night at the cottage and these are my night game plays. I never chase nor do I need to chase. Tough luck on my early plays though.

Good luck on your plays tonight.

[Redscot]

On each of the night plays with ya LTA, leaned Mets and over but I never play my team without some unbiased opinion. Didn't have the balls to play S.D. myself, but they showed value, Latos did not keep his end of the bargain.

Enjoy the cottage my man and drink up if you aren't hitting the road. Let's hope for a good night card.

[homosayswhat]

bit time chasing for the love....any time you start putting money on teams like the PADRES...you know you are in trouble.

Phils easily won that game...

[Redscot]

bit time chasing for the love....any time you start putting money on teams like the PADRES...you know you are in trouble.

Phils easily won that game...

True dat, Yanks should have won "easily too". Betting ain't easy money that is for sure. Just have to work hard to find value and hope for the best. GL Homo

[JR007]

it is getting very difficult to win no matter which way you bet...plus baseball comes at you every day of the week

[Redscot]

2 outs in the 9th and K.C. kills the under. Damn. July is a tough, tough bases month.

Such is life, tomorrow is another day, gonna go watch some boxing.

Hit the hay with the Brewers game 3-2 in the 5th, looks like they couldn't scrape together another 2 runs between them last 4 innings.

Today will be better LTA, back to the grind.

[Love The Action]

Homosaywhat... Do you know what chasing even is?

Guys, relax, its one bad night...we have a big play today and will be just fine.

[pacocn]

lta bol on your plays today

[Love The Action]

MLB 7/24/11

SD/Philly under (7)(-115) 6x (Locked)

I locked this one in last night before passing out. And don't accuse me of chasing either because I posted that I was making this play before yesterdays games. GL...

[Redscot]

MLB 7/24/11

SD/Philly under (7)(-115) 6x (Locked)

I locked this one in last night before passing out. And don't accuse me of chasing either because I posted that I was making this play before yesterdays games. GL...

Wowza! I also grabbed it last night at 7 x2. Ballsy move my brother, I like the call. BOL today