LTA's MLB Plays

**Love The Action** · 07-20-11, 02:47 PM

Originally posted by Love The Action

MLB 7/20/11

Play #1

Cincy/Pit under (7)(+100) 1x (Locked)

I think everyone expects the Cincy bats to wake up today, but I like Karstens. Even though his advanced stats show that he has been a bit lucky this year, I think that luck continues today. The Pirates have momentum going right now and that positive mojo should apply to the game today. With Cueto pitching well and Karstens pitching well, I think we see a low-scoring, intense affair that will be surrounded by a playoff like atmosphere. Both pitchers use control and ground balls to succeed and I see that coming through today. The ump really doesn't have too much of a lean but is 8-11 o/u on the year with a 62.8% strike rate. I will rolll with the under here for 1x. Off to work and I will post the rest of my plays as soon as possible after making them. I probably will not have time for writeups, so my apologies. Good luck to all today!

Play #2

Dodgers/Giants under (5.5)(+ 100) 2x (Locked)

Big move on the under right after I locked it....lets hope late money is right. GL...

**funnyman** · 07-20-11, 05:39 PM

2 for 2. Good going.

**Bob734** · 07-20-11, 05:40 PM

Nice

**Redscot** · 07-20-11, 05:42 PM

Nice to have some breathe-easy wins! Good Work LTA

.

**Love The Action** · 07-20-11, 05:48 PM

Third play on padres under to be posted shortly.

**investing4us** · 07-20-11, 05:54 PM

Thanks for the 2 wins. Keep the cash train rolling. I need to make a decision regarding the WNBA. They are eating up my MLB profits.

**Love The Action** · 07-20-11, 05:54 PM

I really like the braves ml tonight although it sure looks like a sucker bet to me...

**Love The Action** · 07-20-11, 05:59 PM

Originally posted by investing4us

Thanks for the 2 wins. Keep the cash train rolling. I need to make a decision regarding the WNBA. They are eating up my MLB profits.

Me too...reduce your unit size for now or lay off...bol...

**snapperman2** · 07-20-11, 06:00 PM

Originally posted by Love The Action

I really like the braves ml tonight although it sure looks like a sucker bet to me...

Why do you say it looks like a sucker bet?

**freshguy222** · 07-20-11, 06:02 PM

Originally posted by snapperman2

Why do you say it looks like a sucker bet?

because the line seems too low for hudson there rlm and public on atlanta

**Love The Action** · 07-20-11, 06:07 PM

Originally posted by Love The Action

MLB 7/20/11

Play #1

Cincy/Pit under (7)(+100) 1x (Locked)

I think everyone expects the Cincy bats to wake up today, but I like Karstens. Even though his advanced stats show that he has been a bit lucky this year, I think that luck continues today. The Pirates have momentum going right now and that positive mojo should apply to the game today. With Cueto pitching well and Karstens pitching well, I think we see a low-scoring, intense affair that will be surrounded by a playoff like atmosphere. Both pitchers use control and ground balls to succeed and I see that coming through today. The ump really doesn't have too much of a lean but is 8-11 o/u on the year with a 62.8% strike rate. I will rolll with the under here for 1x. Off to work and I will post the rest of my plays as soon as possible after making them. I probably will not have time for writeups, so my apologies. Good luck to all today!

Play #2

Dodgers/Giants under (5.5)(+ 100) 2x (Locked)

Play #3

SD/FL under (7)(+ 100) 0.75x (Locked)

Late line move to the over so only 0.75x...GL...

**Love The Action** · 07-20-11, 06:24 PM

Originally posted by snapperman2

Why do you say it looks like a sucker bet?

As freshguy said, with hudson on the mound, I have atl as small faves despite nocasio going 4-0 at home so far this year.

However, the line has dropped all day to where atl is a small dog despite 70%+ on the braves.

Most of the stats say braves but line movement says rockies. Bol whatever you choose...I may still play them light...

**Love The Action** · 07-20-11, 06:39 PM

Wow under is toast and its the 2nd inning...I guess nolasco is tired from recent high pitch count games... That sux...

**Love The Action** · 07-20-11, 06:52 PM

Remaining leans:

Braves ML
Angels ML

**shocktopme** · 07-20-11, 07:03 PM

what up?

Hey recorder picked up Breaking Bad!!!!!The Boxcutter!!!!Bled that asshole out good with that box cutter!!!Gonna be awesome season as always!!!!!!Good luck on bets.....

**Love The Action** · 07-20-11, 07:06 PM

Originally posted by shocktopme

Hey recorder picked up Breaking Bad!!!!!The Boxcutter!!!!Bled that asshole out good with that box cutter!!!Gonna be awesome season as always!!!!!!Good luck on bets.....

awesome episode

**GoggsViggs** · 07-20-11, 07:12 PM

Originally posted by Love The Action

As freshguy said, with hudson on the mound, I have atl as small faves despite nocasio going 4-0 at home so far this year.

However, the line has dropped all day to where atl is a small dog despite 70%+ on the braves.

Most of the stats say braves but line movement says rockies. Bol whatever you choose...I may still play them light...

Bro, FWIW, I'm on Rockies tonight and Nicasio home cooking for 3x.
Bol with ur plays

**Love The Action** · 07-20-11, 07:32 PM

Originally posted by GoggsViggs

Bro, FWIW, I'm on Rockies tonight and Nicasio home cooking for 3x.
Bol with ur plays

Is that a bigger play or standard?

I like rlm plays but can't back nicasio here...probably no play but I will regret it if the braves win.

**gshock1** · 07-20-11, 07:33 PM

No McCann for the Braves

**Love The Action** · 07-20-11, 07:46 PM

Originally posted by gshock1

No McCann for the Braves

No play for me... Rox lineup has killed hudson in the past.

Looking hard at Haren and Angels..

**gshock1** · 07-20-11, 07:47 PM

Originally posted by Love The Action

No play for me... Rox lineup has killed hudson in the past.

Looking hard at Haren and Angels..

I played the Rockies based on line movement and lineup. I think the Braves get the split tomorrow.

**GoggsViggs** · 07-20-11, 07:49 PM

Originally posted by Love The Action

Is that a bigger play or standard?

I like rlm plays but can't back nicasio here...probably no play but I will regret it if the braves win.

Bigger play but mainly because I was busy at work and late getting my earlier picks in (sd, STL) so decided to just ride it on rox.

I do like haren tonight but hard to go against red hot rangers right now.

**mtcook21** · 07-20-11, 08:09 PM

LTA or anyone else - where do you track the line movement to I.D. rlm plays and what the public is betting on? I've heard of different websites that provide this info, but they're paid services... thanks.

**JT OZ** · 07-20-11, 08:16 PM

I use SBR odds but I've always been told the consensus is just for 5Dimes and not all of the sites they provide lines for. Beyond that I've heard of some different sites but not exactly sure which one to point you toward.

**Love The Action** · 07-20-11, 08:18 PM

Originally posted by mtcook21

LTA or anyone else - where do you track the line movement to I.D. rlm plays and what the public is betting on? I've heard of different websites that provide this info, but they're paid services... thanks.

I use sports insights but that is a paid service. Don Best and Sports Options are also paid services. I also look at such free services as sports spy, SBR odds (only 5D percentages there) and scores/odds (only sportsbook.com percentages there). GL...

**Love The Action** · 07-20-11, 08:29 PM

Originally posted by JR007

Bluejays..worth a look tonight...Sea flew crosscountry...to play yesterday (14 innings)........how much do they have left in the tank ???bad offensive team
Bautista..back for the Jays........

...might be a good spot for the run-line......pacocn's play...team totals look telling

Good call JR...I was going to take this but was scared away because of the price. Even on the -1RL it was a bit expensive and I am generally a fan of Vargas this year and was burned by Morrow earlier in the year so I layed off. Hope you cashed it big!

I appreciate your thoughts so I hope you continue to post them. Thanks.

**Love The Action** · 07-20-11, 08:30 PM

I would say I am about 90% sure that I will take the Angels right now. Haren has dominated all year, has pitched well against Texas both in the past and this year and the Angels have hit lefties all year (last ten games hitting .280).

Streak are meant to be broken and Haren is streak buster.

**JR007** · 07-20-11, 08:34 PM

thanks Bro...finally got one right...what sealed it was I saw the moneyline going up on Toronto and the run-line going down

a good correlation....I watch matchbooks activity ...close to game -time on games as well

**JR007** · 07-20-11, 08:37 PM

on the angels game, holland was a gascan....before his last two starts.....not sure what to expect tonight......still has a bad whip

what bothers me about this game is Haran...should be priced higher

**Love The Action** · 07-20-11, 08:59 PM

Originally posted by Love The Action

MLB 7/20/11

Play #1

Cincy/Pit under (7)(+100) 1x (Locked)

Play #2

Dodgers/Giants under (5.5)(+ 100) 2x (Locked)

Play #3

SD/FL under (7)(+ 100) 0.75x (Locked)

Play #4

Angels ML (-123) 1x (Locked)

Regardless of the result, we will have a profitable MLB day. However, I am not one to sit back and let money pass my by. At the end of the day, I completely understand the Texas win streak. However, that streak was against creampuffs in Oakland, Seattle and Balty. Make no mistake, Haren is a streak-buster. Haren is top 10 MLB starter in most advanced starts. It's no secret this guy is a stud. However, I am not a fan of Holland. Yes, he has pitched to complete games, however, those were against the aforementioned A's and M's. This game is against an Angels lineup that has a great history against Holland and is hitting .280 against lefties in their last ten games. With Haren's dominance at home and his solid history against the Texas lineup, I'm rolling with Angels for 1x. Good luck.

**mtcook21** · 07-20-11, 09:01 PM

Really enjoy the write-ups! Every time I read them it makes be believe your plays are a lock! Let's get this last one!

**Full-Grown** · 07-20-11, 09:02 PM

Originally posted by mtcook21

LTA or anyone else - where do you track the line movement to I.D. rlm plays and what the public is betting on? I've heard of different websites that provide this info, but they're paid services... thanks.

Sportsinsights is worth the money but if you want a free service go to Pregame.com click on numbers then Sportsbook Spy. GL

**Love The Action** · 07-20-11, 10:18 PM

Ouch...that homerun by Murphy hurts. I loved the odds of cashing with Haren having a two run lead like that, even against the Rangers, but that homer sucked. Lot of game left...hopefully this fade of Holland pays off with him giving up a few more bombs.

**Love The Action** · 07-20-11, 10:42 PM

You guys check out tomorrow's card yet?

Some great pitchers going tomorrow...Romero, Fister, Hanson, Wilson, Weaver, Sabathia, Shields, Verlander and some good second tier guys that will give you a quality start, but also turn into gascans at times, like Pavano, Westbrook, Chacin, Mosely, Vazquez, Niese, Grienke, Kennedy.

Early leans under in Seattle/Toronto, Seattle ML, Yankees/TB under, Braves ML (possible big play if they lose tonight), Angels ML, Padres ML, Tigers ML, Cardinals (for the moment). Who knows though, some of these leans might change once I look at everything.

**Love The Action** · 07-20-11, 10:45 PM

Originally posted by Love The Action

Play #4

Angels ML (-123) 1x (Locked)

Regardless of the result, we will have a profitable MLB day. However, I am not one to sit back and let money pass my by. At the end of the day, I completely understand the Texas win streak. However, that streak was against creampuffs in Oakland, Seattle and Balty. Make no mistake, Haren is a streak-buster. Haren is top 10 MLB starter in most advanced starts. It's no secret this guy is a stud. However, I am not a fan of Holland. Yes, he has pitched to complete games, however, those were against the aforementioned A's and M's. This game is against an Angels lineup that has a great history against Holland and is hitting .280 against lefties in their last ten games. With Haren's dominance at home and his solid history against the Texas lineup, I'm rolling with Angels for 1x. Good luck.

Ouch...Haren just got rocked for five more...8-3...I expected a 4-2 type win by the Angels. Hopefully, they pull it with an explosion of runs. This was a fade of Holland as much as anything, so let's see if the Angels can get some of these back and win in a slugfest. It's only the fifth inning.