LTA's MLB Plays

[Love The Action]

Good luck tonight...the right( pricepoint) like that word LTA...thanks......on the Mets over

Yep, I saw it.

So did you play the other ones? Philly under, Braves over, Yanks over, Nationals under, Tigers over?

[JR007]

yanks over

waiting on the late games

[Love The Action]

I came within a whisker of taking the Royals because I think Hochevar is better than Davis and there was solid RLM on the game.

[Love The Action]

yanks over

waiting on the late games

Nice call on the Yanks over

[Love The Action]

The more I look into it, the more I like the Natties under. I was not going to play any unders today, but I'm not so sure now. The Dodgers played to the under in eight of their last ten games, only hitting .173 against lefties over that span. Lannan, even though he doesn't have the best advanced stats, but he does throw a ton of ground balls with a 1.98 GB/FB ratio. Plus, he has not given up more than 3 runs in his last ten starts and only 3 times all year. On the other side, Kuroda is having a really solid season with a FIP, xFIP and tERA top 80 of MLB and all in the mid 3 to high 3's. I need to look into this one a little more. This could be the fifth and final play for today. GL.

[Redscot]

Nice call on the Yanks over

Gotta love cashing in so early in the game . Good call JR.

[Love The Action]

I am so pissed I didn't play that KC ML lean. Damn....

[Redscot]

Cash that Mets over baby!

[Love The Action]

The more I look into it, the more I like the Natties under. I was not going to play any unders today, but I'm not so sure now. The Dodgers played to the under in eight of their last ten games, only hitting .173 against lefties over that span. Lannan, even though he doesn't have the best advanced stats, but he does throw a ton of ground balls with a 1.98 GB/FB ratio. Plus, he has not given up more than 3 runs in his last ten starts and only 3 times all year. On the other side, Kuroda is having a really solid season with a FIP, xFIP and tERA top 80 of MLB and all in the mid 3 to high 3's. I need to look into this one a little more. This could be the fifth and final play for today. GL.

I found some other interesting stats. I am playing this under for sure. Just waiting to see if it will go to 7. Good luck.

[Redscot]

Cash the Bravo's and Texas over looking very strong . The tide is turning, been due for a run bro, hope this is the start of a nice roll. Well done .

[Love The Action]

Big under ump Kulpa in this game. I found some other interesting stats. I am playing this under for sure. Just waiting to see if it will go to 7. Good luck.

Waiting until the last minute to see if this goes to 7. I hate taking a play after losing a 1/2 point of value, especially when that is the difference between a loss and a push. If I can't get 7, I can only play this for 0.50x.

[gshock1]

Brewers or Giants?

[Love The Action]

MLB 7/22/11

Play #1

Toronto/Texas over (10)(-115) 1x (Locked)

Running late, so here it is in a nutshell:

Both Lewis and Reyes are fly ball pitchers in a park that is not conducive to fly ball pitchers. Colby Lewis did well in his last start, but that was against Seattle in the midst of their offensive slump. This is against a top 8 MLB offensive team. Lewis has a .60 GB/FB ratio which is pathetic. His other advanced stats are not better than top 100. I see no way he limits a hot Toronto offense that has Bautista back in the lineup. By the way, Bautista is hitting .500 off Lewis with 2HR in only 6 at bats so far in their matchups. Overall, Toronto has killed Lewis and is hitting .333 off him as a team. I expect Toronto to cross home plate early and often today. However, I expect the same from Texas. Reyes is not much better than Lewis, if at all. Here is a guy who has a GB/FB of .99, but only throws 12.7% of his pitches for strikes. I just don't see him limiting a Texas lineup that will be happy to be home and is coming off one of their worst performances of the year in getting shutout by the Angels and Weaver. Reyes has poor advanced stats, so it's not like he has been unlucky this year or a victim of bad defense. His FIP, xFIP and tERA and even SIERA is in the mid to high 4's. Finally, Texas is hitting .348 off Reyes as a team coming into this game and I expect that success to continue. I believe the weather is predicted to have wind blowing out in this game and that should only help the over with these two big time fly ball pitchers. At the end of the day, the total opened at 10 runs for a reason, with juice only going up since then. I think this one is going up to 10.5 relatively soon and I'm rolling with the over here for 1x. Good luck.

Play #2

Arizona -1RL 1x (0.50x ML (-170) & 0.50x -1.5RL (+130))

I won't bore you with the stats on this one, but there is a huge pitching disparity when it comes to standard or advanced stats. Even head to head, Hudson has held the Rox to a .209 BA and has an 2.08 ERA against them, while Cook has a 5.46 ERA against AZ and allowed a .278 BA. I think we see a blowout here and I'm rolling with AZ on tge -1RL for 1x. Good luck.

Play #3

Braves ML (-114) 0.75x (Locked)

Huge disparity in starting pitching in this one. However, Uggla is not playing and both Bruce and Votto have hit Jurrjens in the past, so I will just take this one for 0.75x. Good luck.

Play #4

Mets/Marlins over (9) 0.50x (Locked)

Both pitchers struggling right now. I expect a lot of runs, however, Volstad has a decent history against the Mets and has shut down Reyes in the past. Plus, he only threw about 50 pitches in his last start after getting shelled by the Cubs and he may be rested, throwing heat and looking to bounce back. I would take this one for more, but when you consider the success Volstad might have with the fact I didn't get this at the 8.5 opener, I think only a 0.50x play is warranted. Good luck.

Play #5

Nationals/Dodgers under (6.5)(+105) 0.75x (Locked)

See my thoughts in a couple earlier posts on this play. Pitchers are solid, we have an under ump and both teams struggling at the plate. Good luck.

[Love The Action]

Brewers or Giants?

Sorry. No lean. Gun to my head, Giants and under. BOL.

[Love The Action]

WTF Kuroda...gives up a two run home run to the pitcher Lannan...that fuckign sucks.

[Redscot]

Summer is heating up and the scores are on the rise.....WoW.

[Love The Action]

My posted leans on the Royals, Royals over and Angles all hit. Wish I would have played them but I am definitely starting to heat up for a run pretty soon.

[Love The Action]

MLB Recap 7/21/11

3 - 2 = +0.25x

MLB Season 2011

289 - 265 = +28.14x

Had our hearts broken by the Nationals as they score 4 runs in the top of the 9th inning to kill the under and take away a much more profitable night. Nevertheless, we have been profitable for 5 of the last 6 days and third in a row. I am feeling great, very confident and like the funk of early July is a distant memory. I know a big heater is right around the corner. I am going away for the weekend tomorrow afternoon so I will be posting all of my plays for Saturday over the next couple hours and tomorrow morning. Just locked in my first play on a big dog...posting now. Good luck.

[Love The Action]

MLB 7/23/11

Play #1

Padres ML (+129) 1.25x (Locked)

I believe this is way too much value to pass up for this pitching matchup. I predict that by gametime, "sharps" will have this closing price down to +120 or less. Many people might just look at Kendrick's ERA in the mid 3's and his WHIP at 1.3 and figure he is a solid pitcher that should dominate the weak-hitting Padres. However, if you look behind the standard stats, what you will find is a HUGE disparity in starting pitching. Latos is having an excellent, if not unlucky, season. Whereas, Kendrick is not pitching well, but the Phillies' success is doing a good job of hiding his mistakes. First, Latos has the #9 tERA in the league at 2.94, compared to Kendrick's 4.86 which is in the bottom quarter of the league. Latos' FIP is 3.34, xFIP is 3.75 and SIERRA is 3.66, all ranked no worse than top 60; while Kendrick's FIP, xFIP and SIERRA are in the mid to high 4's and all rank in the bottom third of the league. Plus, when you look at the luck factor, Kendrick has a horseshoe up his ass, while Latos has been fairly unlucky despite his ability to strike people out. Latos has a BABIP and LOB% of .309 and 68.7%, while Kendrick has .271 and 75.4% respectively. This is where we find our value in this play. Everyone is going to look at the ERA and WHIPs of these two players and see that Kendrick (3.34 ERA) has slightly better numbers than Latos (4.02 ERA). However, when you go beyond the smoke and mirrors of standard stats, you see that Kendrick (i) has been getting lucky as evidenced by his low BABIP and high LOB% and (ii) is due for a big regression. However, if you look at Latos' .309 BABIP and 68.7 LOB%, it is clear that (i) he has a been a bit unlucky and (ii) he should start to catch more breaks as the year progresses. You can find more evidence of an upcoming Latos hot streak if you look at his rare ability to get strikeouts. Generally, solid strikeout pitchers are the only type of pitcher that can sustain low BABIP's and high LOB% throughout the season because of their ability to get out of jams. However, even though he is a great strike out pitcher, Latos is still carrying an unlucky BABIP and LOB%. I have a feeling that luck is about to change as evidenced by Latos' K/9 of 8.22 and K% of 21.4% (both top 20 MLB). Kendrick on the other hand is rocking a 3.61 K9 and a 9.5% K%, which is pathetic. All of these numbers are the reason we have huge value on Latos in this spot. I expect most people to bet the Phillies thinking the pitching matchup is no worse than even, while we know that we have a huge advantage with Latos at +129. The clincher for this play is the individual matchups between the Phillies hitters and Latos. Lifetime, the Phillies hitters that will be facing Latos tomorrow are hitting .229 in 53 at bats, with Latos' career ERA against Philly at 3.86. Compare that to Kendrick and we see that he has a 5.91 lifetime ERA against the Padres and poor results overall. The Padres have a top 3 MLB bullpen and are ranked top 12 in defense, whereas the Phillies are ranked around 20th in both categories. While the Phillies have a slightly better offense, the Padres have been hitting well lately; especially, Will Veneble in the leadoff spot who has been a huge spark-plug in leading the Padres to their sweep of the Marlins coming into this series. We saw the Padres bats limited by Hamels on Friday, but on Saturday I think the Padres score at least 4 runs to win the game 4-2 against the Phillies in Philly. I don't bet against top 10 MLB teams often, but you can beat them if you pick your spots. I think this spot presents some hidden value. If I see the price go up from the "public" (whoever that is these days) pound Philly, I may add another .25x-.50x to this play, whereas if I see the price go down from RLM, I may add a little more. I believe we have a better than 50% chance of cashing this play, and at +129, this is almost a must play for that value. I'm rolling with the Padres ML for 1.25x in this spot and may add to it tomorrow. Good luck.

[Love The Action]

Depending on the number and weather, there is a very good chance I will be playing the over in Astros/Cubs tomorrow. Rodriguez v. Wells. Yes, Rodriguez has solid numbers this year, but he does his best work at home. His road numbers are not nearly as good. Plus, the Cubs are hitting .274 against him as a team and he has over a 4 ERA lifetime against them. On the other side of the diamond, Wells is a gascan this year and cannot seem to put it together. CB Bucknor is the ump and he 11-8 in favor of the over this year, with a 9 r/p/g average and a 62.8% strike rate. I think we should have some weather conducive to the over tomorrow and with both bullpens in total garbage mode, I think the Astros/Cubs over is likely a 1x play (pending posted total and weather).

Look for an over play in the Minny/Detroit game as well. Scott Baker and Brad Penny have gotten shelled by the batters they will face tomorrow and with Baker just off the DL (questionable if really healthy), I think this one goes over the posted total. At this point I can get 8.5 (-115), however, 75% of all bets are on the under. We need to weigh in that Miller is a big under ump -- one of Dexter's autobet umps -- so that might help us get more value on the over or help us decide to pass. Can we get 8 or do we lock it in now to avoid 9? BM is already up to 9...I will post it before bed if I lock it.


I also lean Brewers/Giants over, Mets ML, Mets/Marlins over and Cardinals ML as of right now.

[Redscot]

Damn my man, the hardest workin' man on SBR. Liking the late night analysis. Tough beat in Wash, incidently Homeplate was Blaser who is rocking one of the lowest strike % this year, only mention it because I saw you mentioned Kulpa who has been an under stud. . Nice day yesterday, keep the hot hand .

[Love The Action]

Damn my man, the hardest workin' man on SBR. Liking the late night analysis. Tough beat in Wash, incidently Homeplate was Blaser who is rocking one of the lowest strike % this year, only mention it because I saw you mentioned Kulpa who has been an under stud. . Nice day yesterday, keep the hot hand .

Yep....I know. I actually changed that about 5 mins before gametime. I initially had the names mixed up. Sorry. I don't think that is what turned that one into a loser...that was due more to the BS grand slam

[nickos86]

I'm on the MIN/DET Over 8.5 -117. Moved to -120 now (Pinnacle). Not sure what it will do from here.

[Redscot]

I'm on the MIN/DET Over 8.5 -117. Moved to -120 now (Pinnacle). Not sure what it will do from here.

Deserves a look for sure. Penny sucks on road and has struggled in the day too over the years. Minny in limited sample has hit him as well.

On the other side Detroit batters have owned Baker, and Baker has been out a couple of weeks. Only hesitation I may have is Baker has been close to dominant at home.

GL

[Love The Action]

I'm on the MIN/DET Over 8.5 -117. Moved to -120 now (Pinnacle). Not sure what it will do from here.

Me too...sorry havent been able to post, locked it about an hour ago for 1x. I will post it shortly. I am worried about the ump in that one, but that's it.

[pacocn]

Line is now at Over 9 for +105. Any thoughts?

[GGALLERT]

LTA, shoot me thoughts on LAA RL, seems to easy. Nice day yesterday!

[Redscot]

Hey LTA, you trust Garcia on the road today? What is the deal with his home/road splits? You think it is just a statistical anomaly? It's not like his home field is Petco or something. I don't get it.

[Love The Action]

MLB 7/23/11

Play #1

Padres ML (+129) 1.25x (Locked)

I believe this is way too much value to pass up for this pitching matchup. I predict that by gametime, "sharps" will have this closing price down to +120 or less. Many people might just look at Kendrick's ERA in the mid 3's and his WHIP at 1.3 and figure he is a solid pitcher that should dominate the weak-hitting Padres. However, if you look behind the standard stats, what you will find is a HUGE disparity in starting pitching. Latos is having an excellent, if not unlucky, season. Whereas, Kendrick is not pitching well, but the Phillies' success is doing a good job of hiding his mistakes. First, Latos has the #9 tERA in the league at 2.94, compared to Kendrick's 4.86 which is in the bottom quarter of the league. Latos' FIP is 3.34, xFIP is 3.75 and SIERRA is 3.66, all ranked no worse than top 60; while Kendrick's FIP, xFIP and SIERRA are in the mid to high 4's and all rank in the bottom third of the league. Plus, when you look at the luck factor, Kendrick has a horseshoe up his ass, while Latos has been fairly unlucky despite his ability to strike people out. Latos has a BABIP and LOB% of .309 and 68.7%, while Kendrick has .271 and 75.4% respectively. This is where we find our value in this play. Everyone is going to look at the ERA and WHIPs of these two players and see that Kendrick (3.34 ERA) has slightly better numbers than Latos (4.02 ERA). However, when you go beyond the smoke and mirrors of standard stats, you see that Kendrick (i) has been getting lucky as evidenced by his low BABIP and high LOB% and (ii) is due for a big regression. However, if you look at Latos' .309 BABIP and 68.7 LOB%, it is clear that (i) he has a been a bit unlucky and (ii) he should start to catch more breaks as the year progresses. You can find more evidence of an upcoming Latos hot streak if you look at his rare ability to get strikeouts. Generally, solid strikeout pitchers are the only type of pitcher that can sustain low BABIP's and high LOB% throughout the season because of their ability to get out of jams. However, even though he is a great strike out pitcher, Latos is still carrying an unlucky BABIP and LOB%. I have a feeling that luck is about to change as evidenced by Latos' K/9 of 8.22 and K% of 21.4% (both top 20 MLB). Kendrick on the other hand is rocking a 3.61 K9 and a 9.5% K%, which is pathetic. All of these numbers are the reason we have huge value on Latos in this spot. I expect most people to bet the Phillies thinking the pitching matchup is no worse than even, while we know that we have a huge advantage with Latos at +129. The clincher for this play is the individual matchups between the Phillies hitters and Latos. Lifetime, the Phillies hitters that will be facing Latos tomorrow are hitting .229 in 53 at bats, with Latos' career ERA against Philly at 3.86. Compare that to Kendrick and we see that he has a 5.91 lifetime ERA against the Padres and poor results overall. The Padres have a top 3 MLB bullpen and are ranked top 12 in defense, whereas the Phillies are ranked around 20th in both categories. While the Phillies have a slightly better offense, the Padres have been hitting well lately; especially, Will Veneble in the leadoff spot who has been a huge spark-plug in leading the Padres to their sweep of the Marlins coming into this series. We saw the Padres bats limited by Hamels on Friday, but on Saturday I think the Padres score at least 4 runs to win the game 4-2 against the Phillies in Philly. I don't bet against top 10 MLB teams often, but you can beat them if you pick your spots. I think this spot presents some hidden value. If I see the price go up from the "public" (whoever that is these days) pound Philly, I may add another .25x-.50x to this play, whereas if I see the price go down from RLM, I may add a little more. I believe we have a better than 50% chance of cashing this play, and at +129, this is almost a must play for that value. I'm rolling with the Padres ML for 1.25x in this spot and may add to it tomorrow. Good luck.

Play #2

Detroit/Minny over (8.5)(-120) 1x (Locked)

Sorry guys, really short on time this morning. We're heading up to my buddy's cottage for the weekend and trying to get a baby read for the road is a bit hectic. Anyway, as far as this play goes, I really hate two things: (1) paying -120 on a total ever and (2) playing against Dexter's autobets. However, I gotta do what I gotta do. I locked this on in a couple hours ago and the line is up to -125 or (9) in some places. You have Baker who is generally a very solid starter, but in this game is making his first start off the DL because of a sore flexor muscle. He threw 50 pitches on the side the other day and stated that he felt good but just needed to block it out of his mind and fight through it. Those kind of comments do not sound to me like someone who is 100% healthy. Plus, even if he is, he has horrible numbers against the Tigers and this lineup who has lit him up to the tune of a .333 BA in 287 AB's over his career. On the other side, I have no confidence in Penny this year. His FIP, xFIP, tERA and SIERA are all above 4.5. Plus, against the Twins and this lineup, he has also gotten shelled to the tune of a .338 BA in 74AB's and an ERA above 5. With Penny's road ERA this year above 6.50, I think we see Minny score quite a bit. Because I don't trust Baker in a weakened state of mind to handle the top 5 MLB Tigers' offense and I expect Minny to rough up Penny, I'm rolling with the over here for 1x. Good luck.

[Love The Action]

Line is now at Over 9 for +105. Any thoughts?

I hate taking stale lines...but I still like it. Up to you...

[Love The Action]

LTA, shoot me thoughts on LAA RL, seems to easy. Nice day yesterday!

I try to play only -1RL rather than -1.5RL, because over 30% of all games will be a winner by one run. So you are saving yourself money in the long run by getting those pushes as opposed to losses.

If you look deeper into that pitching matchup, I would probabaly not make that play. I haven't gone in-depth on that one yet, however, I know the advanced measurables of Pineiro and Bergesen are not that far apart. Plus, Pineiro has gotten shelled by that Oriole lineup in the past. Be careful...I would only play this one on the ML at best, but probably a PASS for me.

[Love The Action]

Hey LTA, you trust Garcia on the road today? What is the deal with his home/road splits? You think it is just a statistical anomaly? It's not like his home field is Petco or something. I don't get it.

Still looking at it. That is one of my strong leans though. We'll see....

[Love The Action]

Cubs total is out at 9.5. Starting to get juiced toward the under. I see this one going over, but I generally do not play 9.5 overs because it requires 10 runs to win. I especially don't play them if the under is juiced and the public is on the over. Watch out for that....it will save you money long term.

At least an over on the total of 9 has the chance of pushing at a final score of 9.

[Love The Action]

Big RLM dropped the Angels/Balty total down from 10 to 9.5 with the under being juiced at 9.5. That's a big drop where 65% of the bets are on the over....

[pacocn]

Lta, i do not see the cubs game being a score fest.
Neither team is in good form w/their bats, weather
looks like a non-factor, and the ump is a mild Over
ump. I could see Wandy and Wells (W&W) righting
the ship against non-potent lineups.