LTA's MLB Plays

[Love The Action]

We have three plays so far.

Remaining leans:

Milwaukee/AZ over
LAD/SF under

[Redscot]

Toying with that LA under too. Billinglsey has put 4 straight solid starts together after a rough patch, and Vogel has been lights out at home. Just worry if Vogel's been overachieving so far (his peripheral's indicate so), I have it pretty much an even match-upon the mound. GL on your choice .

[Love The Action]

Toying with that LA under too. Billinglsey has put 4 straight solid starts together after a rough patch, and Vogel has been lights out at home. Just worry if Vogel's been overachieving so far (his peripheral's indicate so), I have it pretty much an even match-upon the mound. GL on your choice .

Precisely. Vogelsong is rocking a BABIP of .257 and LOB% of 82%, so he's definitely been really lucky. At the same time, the Dodgers have been struggling offensively and are on a huge under regression after some early season over hits going for two unders in a row, six of seven and eight of their last ten. I think we can trust Billingsley who is hot coming into today and has a career ERA of 3.06 against SF. I'm liking it the more I type . I would like to know who the ump is before I lock anything in. I also want to know what the hell is going to happen with my 2x Natties over play. I am very surprised that Marquis and Lyles are dominating those offenses in the home run friendly park in Houston.

[Redscot]

Yeah man, I haven't been able to find the ump yet either, could be a clincher.

I actually liked Lyles chances tonight, small sample but has had success at home. Still both pitchers on a bad run, Marquis suspect on the road and with some bad numbers against current Stros LU, coupled with the BallPark. Definitely looked over, still time, Marquis is always more hittable 2nd and 3rd time around. End of the day, those Fcuk's in Vegas are sharp!

GL

[Redscot]

Jinx be damned but the Braves play is looking really nice. Seemed too good to be true really the line, only concern I had. Colorado is strong at home, but come on, Braves are red hot, Lowe has been better than his numbers look and is a GB pitcher in Col. Hammel is just sheeit.

[Love The Action]

Yeah man, I haven't been able to find the ump yet either, could be a clincher.

I actually liked Lyles chances tonight, small sample but has had success at home. Still both pitchers on a bad run, Marquis suspect on the road and with some bad numbers against current Stros LU, coupled with the BallPark. Definitely looked over, still time, Marquis is always more hittable 2nd and 3rd time around. End of the day, those Fcuk's in Vegas are sharp!

GL

Yeah, looks like a loser now. Bottom of the 8th and still 2-2. That sucks - everything pointed over there including the late line moves pushing the total to 8.5. Going to need a miracle.

Oh well, I will be playing the under in that Dodgers game as long as we don't get a huge over ump. I'm pretty sure the wind is blowing in from the right at 14mph to help the under a bit as well.

Gotta start looking at tomorrow's card too. I hate when I am trying to finish capping tonight's card and then go right into tomorrow's.

[Redscot]

Neutral ump in frisco, Culbreth.

[Love The Action]

Neutral ump in frisco, Culbreth.

Yep...but he has a higher end strick percentage of 63.4%, so that actually gives me the go according to my numbers. I just locked it in at plus odds too. Posting it now. Good luck tonight! Thanks for your help.

[NBA_Brosuf]

Yeah, looks like a loser now. Bottom of the 8th and still 2-2. That sucks - everything pointed over there including the late line moves pushing the total to 8.5. Going to need a miracle.

Oh well, I will be playing the under in that Dodgers game as long as we don't get a huge over ump. I'm pretty sure the wind is blowing in from the right at 14mph to help the under a bit as well.

Gotta start looking at tomorrow's card too. I hate when I am trying to finish capping tonight's card and then go right into tomorrow's.

In the Giants game, winding is blowing from West North West
Winds WNW at 10 to 15 mph.

The homerun arena is facing the water, EAST.

maybe weather.com is wrong but the wind is coming from the west from my window.

[Redscot]

Come on Nat's! push on through baby! Gotta love that Stros pen .

[NBA_Brosuf]

Come on Nat's! push on through baby! Gotta love that Stros pen .

oh for real? i already gave up on them nats.

I took over 8. LOL

[NBA_Brosuf]

wat the hell? That sacrifice fly for the total push and the guy choked on his feet like a minor league mistake. That was stupid.

[Love The Action]

MLB 7/18/11

Play #1

Washington/Houston over (8) 2x (Locked)

I'm up late watching this damn Red Sox game so I used that time to begin capping tomorrow's card. The first play that stuck out to me was a play worth 2x where Marquis is facing Lyles. Marquis is an athletic guy who is one of the best hitting pitchers out there and will keep his team in the game (and maybe get a hit/RBI). However, he can also give up quite a few runs as evidenced by his 13-5 o/u record on the year. In addition, his defensive independent stats aren't the worst in the world, but they are no better than top 110 MLB stuff. Marquis has a FIP of 3.88 (ok), xFIP of 3.92 (ok) and tERA of 4.63 (poor), with a WHIP of 1.45 (poor), BABIP of .314 and LOB% of 71.7%. The one thing Marquis excels at is getting ground balls at a 53% clip for a GB/FB ration exceeding 2. However, he gives up too many hard hit balls with a LD% of 21% and too many walks at 3.3 per game for a weak K/BB of 1.76. I think the recent awakening of the Houston bats will get at least three off Marquis tomorrow, especially when you take into account his recent struggles with 2.35 WHIP and 8 ERA over his last three starts. On the other Lyles has been a gascan. Here is a guy with a FIP of 4.35, xFIP 4.18 and a tERA of 4.74 which are all bottom of the league stuff. He has a weaker WHIP of 1.38, a BABIP of .293 and a LOB% of 68.8 with even worse batted ball peripherals where he boasts a .93 GB/FB ration because of only throwing about 38% ground balls. This guy walks over 3 batters a game and that never helps. It's pretty clear that looking at the numbers on this one, you have to like the over. However, the trends are overwhelming in favor of the over.

Nationals trends in favor of the over:

• Over is 4-0-1 in Nationals last 5 Monday games.
• Over is 3-0-2 in Nationals last 5 road games with the total set at 7.0-8.5.
• Over is 4-1 in Nationals last 5 vs. National League Central.
• Over is 8-2-1 in Nationals last 11 during game 1 of a series.
• Over is 3-1-2 in Nationals last 6 road games.
• Over is 3-1-2 in Nationals last 6 road games vs. a right-handed starter.
• Over is 8-3 in Nationals last 11 games as a road favorite
• Over is 6-0 in Marquis' last 6 starts following a Quality Start in his last appearance.
• Over is 4-0 in Marquis' last 4 starts vs. National League Central.
• Over is 10-1 in Marquis' last 11 road starts with the total set at 7.0-8.5.
• Over is 8-1 in Marquis' last 9 road starts.
• Over is 12-2 in Marquis' last 14 starts with the total set at 7.0-8.5.
• Over is 5-1 in Marquis' last 6 starts as a favorite.
• Over is 10-2 in Marquis' last 12 starts following a team loss in their previous game.
• Over is 10-3 in Marquis' last 13 starts on grass.
• Over is 10-3 in Marquis' last 13 starts overall.
• Over is 5-2 in Marquis' last 7 starts during game 1 of a series.

Astrols trends in favor of the over:

• Over is 5-0 in Astros last 5 Monday games.
• Over is 7-2 in Astros last 9 home games vs. a team with a losing record.
• Over is 13-4 in Astros last 17 games vs. a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30.
• Over is 11-4 in Astros last 15 during game 1 of a series.
• Over is 5-1-1 in Lyles' last 7 starts overall.
• Over is 5-1-1 in Lyles' last 7 starts following a team loss in their previous game.
• Over is 4-1-1 in Lyles' last 6 starts on grass.
• Over is 4-1-1 in Lyles' last 6 starts as an underdog.
• Over is 4-1 in Lyles' last 5 starts with the total set at 7.0-8.5.

Plus, head to head trends favoring the over:

• Over is 7-2 in the last 9 meetings in Houston.
• Over is 16-5 in the last 21 meetings.

I think when you combing the numbers with the trends in this one, there is clear edge to the over and I'm going to lock it in now for 2x before the juice starts hitting and this one goes up to 8.5. Good luck.

Play #2

Braves ML (+ 120) 1x (Locked)


This price is too good to pass up with one of best sinker ball pitchers which is what you need when playing in colorado. Derek Lowe has had success in Coors Field and Hammel has struggled against the Braves. When you compare stats, its clear the Braves are the right play despite their travel from tge east coast to the west coast last night. Lowe is top 50 mlb in tERA, FIP and xFIP, with a GB/FB ratio exceeding 2.7. That tells me he avoids fly balls which is perfect for colorado thin air. On the other side, Hammel is ranked in the low 100s mlb in the same categories and has a career era over 9 and WHIP over 2 in 4 career starts versus the Braves. Based on this disparity in starters, I'm rolling with the Braves ml for 1x. Good luck.

Play #3

White Sox -1 RL (0.50x ml (-125) 0.50x -1.5 RL (+ 130))

I called this play last night and then got a bit scared off by the line movement in favor of the royals despite everyone on the cws. Since that time the price on the cws went back up so im back on the davies fade train. Buehrle is the most consistent cws starter and their bats are starting to wake up a bit, so I will roll with the cws -1 rl for a little over 1x. Good luck.

Play #4

Dodgers/Giants under (6.5)(+100) 1.25x (Locked)

Final play of the day has Billingsley facing off against Vogelsong. As Redscot and I mentioned above, Vogelsong has an extremely low BABIP of .257 and a LOB% exceeding 82% which means he has had a lot of luck so far this year. However, I'm betting that luck continues against a Dodger team which is regressing towards unders and being a bigger over team throughout the year. In their last ten games, the Dodgers are 2-8 o/u and have hit the under six of their last seven games. The Dodgers have a poor batting average under .180 against right handed hitters in their last ten games. Vogelsong boasts solid defensive independent stats with a FIP 3.62, xFIP of 3.76 and tERA of 3.77, all of which put him top 70 in MLB (even better among starters alone). Plus, Vogelson has limited opposing hitters to a batting average of .221, with a killer WHIP of 1.19 and gives up under 1 hr per game with a HR/9 of .72. His batted ball peripherals are solid, with Vogelsong throwing about 46% ground balls for a GB/FB ratio of 1.25 and a HR/FB of 8%. With the Dodgers struggling at the plate, I think Vogelsong's success continues tonight. On the other side, Billingsley has dominated all year and especially of late with a WHIP of 0.91 and ERA under 2 in his last three starts where he went 1-2 o/u. Billingsley has been a beast all year with dominating advanced stats putting him top 50-60 in FIP, xFIP and tERA. Plus, there has been no luck involved where is BABIP is above .300 and his LOB is right at 70%. Finally, with a GB/FB ratio of 1.5 and a K/9 of 8, I think we see a lot of groundballs and strikeouts tonight for Billingsley. With some killer team trends pointing to the under for both teams and an umpire in Culbreth who has a strike percentage of 63.4%, I'm rolling with the under for 1.25x. Good luck!

[Redscot]

wat the hell? That sacrifice fly for the total push and the guy choked on his feet like a minor league mistake. That was stupid.

Werth-less, gotta be kidding me man!

Still feeling we grab a push here, come on. Not in the cards tonight, made a late run.

[Love The Action]

Washington - Top of 9thSCOREJordan Lyles pitching for HoustonWSHHOUR Bernadina singled to shallow right center.22D Espinosa sacrificed to pitcher, R Bernadina to second.22R Zimmerman singled to shallow right center, R Bernadina scored.32W Lopez relieved J Lyles.32M Morse singled to shallow left center, R Zimmerman to second.32J Werth walked, R Zimmerman to third, M Morse to second.32L Nix singled to shallow right, R Zimmerman and M Morse scored, J Werth to third.52F Rodriguez relieved W Lopez.52R Ankiel ran for L Nix.52W Ramos popped out to shortstop, J Werth tagged out at home.523 Runs, 4 Hits, 0 ErrorsHouston - Bottom of 9thSCOREDrew Storen pitching for WashingtonWSHHOUR Bernadina in left field.52R Ankiel in center field.52D Storen relieved J Marquis.52C Lee doubled to center.52J Michaels struck out swinging.52C Johnson struck out looking.52C Corporan struck out swinging.52


Check that out...pathetic. We had easy scoring chances over the last inning to get the push. First Werth gets tagged out trying to tag on a pop to the shortstop and then the leadoff hitter gets a double, only for three straight guys to strikeout. I mean, after awhile, the gambling gods owe us some of those based on the unders that have pushed because of BS late inning runs. These have to even out soon...man...oh well, we cashed the White Sox and hopefully the Braves if they hold on. If we can get the Dodgers under, we'll have back to back profitable days. The gambling gods owe us that...

[Love The Action]

MLB 7/18/11

Play #1

Washington/Houston over (8) 2x (Locked)LOSS

I'm up late watching this damn Red Sox game so I used that time to begin capping tomorrow's card. The first play that stuck out to me was a play worth 2x where Marquis is facing Lyles. Marquis is an athletic guy who is one of the best hitting pitchers out there and will keep his team in the game (and maybe get a hit/RBI). However, he can also give up quite a few runs as evidenced by his 13-5 o/u record on the year. In addition, his defensive independent stats aren't the worst in the world, but they are no better than top 110 MLB stuff. Marquis has a FIP of 3.88 (ok), xFIP of 3.92 (ok) and tERA of 4.63 (poor), with a WHIP of 1.45 (poor), BABIP of .314 and LOB% of 71.7%. The one thing Marquis excels at is getting ground balls at a 53% clip for a GB/FB ration exceeding 2. However, he gives up too many hard hit balls with a LD% of 21% and too many walks at 3.3 per game for a weak K/BB of 1.76. I think the recent awakening of the Houston bats will get at least three off Marquis tomorrow, especially when you take into account his recent struggles with 2.35 WHIP and 8 ERA over his last three starts. On the other Lyles has been a gascan. Here is a guy with a FIP of 4.35, xFIP 4.18 and a tERA of 4.74 which are all bottom of the league stuff. He has a weaker WHIP of 1.38, a BABIP of .293 and a LOB% of 68.8 with even worse batted ball peripherals where he boasts a .93 GB/FB ration because of only throwing about 38% ground balls. This guy walks over 3 batters a game and that never helps. It's pretty clear that looking at the numbers on this one, you have to like the over. However, the trends are overwhelming in favor of the over.

Nationals trends in favor of the over:

• Over is 4-0-1 in Nationals last 5 Monday games.
• Over is 3-0-2 in Nationals last 5 road games with the total set at 7.0-8.5.
• Over is 4-1 in Nationals last 5 vs. National League Central.
• Over is 8-2-1 in Nationals last 11 during game 1 of a series.
• Over is 3-1-2 in Nationals last 6 road games.
• Over is 3-1-2 in Nationals last 6 road games vs. a right-handed starter.
• Over is 8-3 in Nationals last 11 games as a road favorite
• Over is 6-0 in Marquis' last 6 starts following a Quality Start in his last appearance.
• Over is 4-0 in Marquis' last 4 starts vs. National League Central.
• Over is 10-1 in Marquis' last 11 road starts with the total set at 7.0-8.5.
• Over is 8-1 in Marquis' last 9 road starts.
• Over is 12-2 in Marquis' last 14 starts with the total set at 7.0-8.5.
• Over is 5-1 in Marquis' last 6 starts as a favorite.
• Over is 10-2 in Marquis' last 12 starts following a team loss in their previous game.
• Over is 10-3 in Marquis' last 13 starts on grass.
• Over is 10-3 in Marquis' last 13 starts overall.
• Over is 5-2 in Marquis' last 7 starts during game 1 of a series.

Astrols trends in favor of the over:

• Over is 5-0 in Astros last 5 Monday games.
• Over is 7-2 in Astros last 9 home games vs. a team with a losing record.
• Over is 13-4 in Astros last 17 games vs. a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30.
• Over is 11-4 in Astros last 15 during game 1 of a series.
• Over is 5-1-1 in Lyles' last 7 starts overall.
• Over is 5-1-1 in Lyles' last 7 starts following a team loss in their previous game.
• Over is 4-1-1 in Lyles' last 6 starts on grass.
• Over is 4-1-1 in Lyles' last 6 starts as an underdog.
• Over is 4-1 in Lyles' last 5 starts with the total set at 7.0-8.5.

Plus, head to head trends favoring the over:

• Over is 7-2 in the last 9 meetings in Houston.
• Over is 16-5 in the last 21 meetings.

I think when you combing the numbers with the trends in this one, there is clear edge to the over and I'm going to lock it in now for 2x before the juice starts hitting and this one goes up to 8.5. Good luck.

Play #2

Braves ML (+ 120) 1x (Locked)WINNER


This price is too good to pass up with one of best sinker ball pitchers which is what you need when playing in colorado. Derek Lowe has had success in Coors Field and Hammel has struggled against the Braves. When you compare stats, its clear the Braves are the right play despite their travel from tge east coast to the west coast last night. Lowe is top 50 mlb in tERA, FIP and xFIP, with a GB/FB ratio exceeding 2.7. That tells me he avoids fly balls which is perfect for colorado thin air. On the other side, Hammel is ranked in the low 100s mlb in the same categories and has a career era over 9 and WHIP over 2 in 4 career starts versus the Braves. Based on this disparity in starters, I'm rolling with the Braves ml for 1x. Good luck.

Play #3

White Sox -1 RL (0.50x ml (-125) 0.50x -1.5 RL (+ 130))WINNER

I called this play last night and then got a bit scared off by the line movement in favor of the royals despite everyone on the cws. Since that time the price on the cws went back up so im back on the davies fade train. Buehrle is the most consistent cws starter and their bats are starting to wake up a bit, so I will roll with the cws -1 rl for a little over 1x. Good luck.

Play #4

Dodgers/Giants under (6.5)(+100) 1.25x (Locked)WINNER

Final play of the day has Billingsley facing off against Vogelsong. As Redscot and I mentioned above, Vogelsong has an extremely low BABIP of .257 and a LOB% exceeding 82% which means he has had a lot of luck so far this year. However, I'm betting that luck continues against a Dodger team which is regressing towards unders and being a bigger over team throughout the year. In their last ten games, the Dodgers are 2-8 o/u and have hit the under six of their last seven games. The Dodgers have a poor batting average under .180 against right handed hitters in their last ten games. Vogelsong boasts solid defensive independent stats with a FIP 3.62, xFIP of 3.76 and tERA of 3.77, all of which put him top 70 in MLB (even better among starters alone). Plus, Vogelson has limited opposing hitters to a batting average of .221, with a killer WHIP of 1.19 and gives up under 1 hr per game with a HR/9 of .72. His batted ball peripherals are solid, with Vogelsong throwing about 46% ground balls for a GB/FB ratio of 1.25 and a HR/FB of 8%. With the Dodgers struggling at the plate, I think Vogelsong's success continues tonight. On the other side, Billingsley has dominated all year and especially of late with a WHIP of 0.91 and ERA under 2 in his last three starts where he went 1-2 o/u. Billingsley has been a beast all year with dominating advanced stats putting him top 50-60 in FIP, xFIP and tERA. Plus, there has been no luck involved where is BABIP is above .300 and his LOB is right at 70%. Finally, with a GB/FB ratio of 1.5 and a K/9 of 8, I think we see a lot of groundballs and strikeouts tonight for Billingsley. With some killer team trends pointing to the under for both teams and an umpire in Culbreth who has a strike percentage of 63.4%, I'm rolling with the under for 1.25x. Good luck!

MLB Recap 7/18/11

3 - 1 = +1.4x

We were a couple of stupid plays in the Washington/Houston game away from either a sweep or a 3-0-1 night. Oh well, back to back profitable nights are just what we need right now. Time to put together a little streak and get hot.

MLB Season 2011

280 - 257 = +25.4x

Big day tomorrow. At least one, maybe two multiple unit plays.

[Love The Action]

MLB 7/19/11

Play #1

Padres/Marlins under (7)(+100) 3x (Locked)

Play #2

Nationals -1 RL (0.75x ML (-145) and 0.75x -1.5RL (+115))

I love both of these plays and may add to both as the day goes on tomorrow. I wanted to lock these prices in now as I do not believe the Padres total will go up to 7.5 and I know the Nationals ML will go up beyond -150. I will try to get you guys writeups, but the numbers back both of these plays up big time. Sanchez and Stauffer should be quite the duel with Sanchez needing a big bounceback performance after three rough starts. On the other side, Stauffer has just dominated for the most part and will keep the ball down against the hot hitting Marlins.

In the Natties game, Zimmerman dwarfs Happ in every conceivable category. I am confident that Washington wins that one by three runs or more.

I also have a lean to the Phillies/Cubs under, but there is not total released as of yet. I really like tomorrow's card, so we might have a few more plays than today's card. Good luck.

[ParlayKing]

Love the over for tomorrow nights yank/Tampa game, Colon is a clown and tampa is hungry for a win after two disappointing losses. Any thoughts?

[Love The Action]

Love the over for tomorrow nights yank/Tampa game, Colon is a clown and tampa is hungry for a win after two disappointing losses. Any thoughts?

I would not play the over in this spot, but that doesn't mean you shouldn't...I agree colon is a fat tub of goo and a clown, but he has great numbers this year and his babip over 2.9 and his lob% right at 70% tell me his success is warranted and there is no numerical reversion to be expected. With that said, hellickson has been really lucky this year so you may be onto something. The yankees are actually a solid under bet despite their offense because their bullpen and defense is so good. Tb is the same way but without the great offense. To me, this total is a coinflip at best or otherwise a small under lean. You never know though...just my opinion...good luck with whatever you choose

[Redscot]

Nice night LTA. It's a shame the 2* didn't cash, looked promising at the end. BOL today

[JR007]

This padres/.marlins game.(under)...looks interesting...padres are last in just about every offensive stat....first in the league in strikeouts
Sanchez...6th in the NL in strikeouts...ave 9.3 K's per 9 innings
Stauffer has allowed less than 2 runs per..game.. last 7 starts...........

[ParlayKing]

I would not play the over in this spot, but that doesn't mean you shouldn't...I agree colon is a fat tub of goo and a clown, but he has great numbers this year and his babip over 2.9 and his lob% right at 70% tell me his success is warranted and there is no numerical reversion to be expected. With that said, hellickson has been really lucky this year so you may be onto something. The yankees are actually a solid under bet despite their offense because their bullpen and defense is so good. Tb is the same way but without the great offense. To me, this total is a coinflip at best or otherwise a small under lean. You never know though...just my opinion...good luck with whatever you choose

Thanks for the input LTA, much appreciated. I know on paper this total is a coin flip, however my lean was based purely on the fact that colon has suffered from a recent hamstring injury but yet he insist on playing. And on top of that he was already lit up for 5 runs and 10 hits in their last matchup against TB, i see the rays coming into this game with confidence. Just from his recent outing against TOR saids it all for me, he wasnt even able to get out of the 1st inning before giving up 8 runs. We'll just have to see happens, GL on your plays today.

[Love The Action]

Thanks for the input LTA, much appreciated. I know on paper this total is a coin flip, however my lean was based purely on the fact that colon has suffered from a recent hamstring injury but yet he insist on playing. And on top of that he was already lit up for 5 runs and 10 hits in their last matchup against TB, i see the rays coming into this game with confidence. Just from his recent outing against TOR saids it all for me, he wasnt even able to get out of the 1st inning before giving up 8 runs. We'll just have to see happens, GL on your plays today.

Good points. Hope you cash if you play it...bol...

[Love The Action]

We have two plays so far that are looking real good according to the line movement.

He are my remaining leans:

Brewers ML (tough to bet on gallardo right now though)

Cubs under (heat big factor)

BoSox over (not at 10.5 though)

Indians ML (tough to take the tribe against a decent lefty and to win again after yesterday)

Dodgers/SF under (looking good right now)

Rockies ML (jiminez better at home lately)

Good luck...I will post any further plays as I make them...

[Love The Action]

MLB 7/19/11

Play #1

Padres/Marlins under (7)(+100) 3x (Locked)

Play #2

Nationals -1 RL (0.75x ML (-145) and 0.75x -1.5RL (+115))

Play #3

Dodgers/Giants under (6.5)(-105) 1.5x (Locked)


Had to jump on this one before the line moved.....books starting to juice the under. I will try to get writeups later when I get home from work. I may add units to all three of these plays as well because I absolutely love all them. Good luck!

[GGALLERT]

Gotta Love the unders when they hit...

[gtboy]

just be wary of playing too much under. to me the heat is going to tell on some of the pitchers. gl

[Love The Action]

We have two plays so far that are looking real good according to the line movement.

He are my remaining leans:

Brewers ML (tough to bet on gallardo right now though)

Cubs under (heat big factor)

BoSox over (not at 10.5 though)

Indians ML (tough to take the tribe against a decent lefty and to win again after yesterday)

Dodgers/SF under (looking good right now)

Rockies ML (jiminez better at home lately)

Good luck...I will post any further plays as I make them...

We are playing the marlins under, giants under and natties -1RL.

The only leans I may still play are the cubs under and the brewers -1RL. Good luck to all tonight!

[Redscot]

Looks good LTA, BOL tonight .

How do you have the Met's game capped total's wise? I know you don't like 8's in general....Gibson's got one of the lowest strike %. Some nice other trends in favor of over. Reyes back...Beltran back.. Being a Muts fan I never trust myself capping them.

[Love The Action]

Looks good LTA, BOL tonight .

How do you have the Met's game capped total's wise? I know you don't like 8's in general....Gibson's got one of the lowest strike %. Some nice other trends in favor of over. Reyes back...Beltran back.. Being a Muts fan I never trust myself capping them.

Same to you bud...

I initially leaned under based on recent offensive struggles of both teams and solid advanced stats by the pitchers. Both pitchers took a beatdown recently and should be rested and ready to bounce back after the break. However, as I am sure you know, both beltran and reyes are set to return tonight which should give the mets a boost both mentally and on the field. No play on the total for me, but I lean mets ml because of the lift they should get from those guys returning. GL whatever you play

[Love The Action]

No play on cubs under...big over ump and the phils are hitting righties too well right now...pass on that one.

I am thinking about adding a unit to the dodgers under and still have the brewers on my radar. GL...

[italianbandit]

I'm waiting to see if the fog rolls in at ATT park ( I work a few blocks away). If it does, its another positive factor on the under as ball are weighed down. GL.

[ParlayKing]

Bartoolo colon you fuking bastard, of course you would pitch like an ace when I doubt you lol, good call LTA

[Redscot]

Bartoolo colon you fuking bastard, of course you would pitch like an ace when I doubt you lol, good call LTA

His numbers this year have been outstanding, miraculous really.

For risk of being a "name dropper"....My son trains with the bullpen coach for the Aguilla's, the winter league team Colon plays for down here in the D.R.. He told me going into the season that Colon was going to surprise a lot of people. 1) he had stem cells injected into his shoulder and it has revived the life in his arm and 2) he spent the whole winter just working on a 2 seamer (which he is now utilizing and has excellent movement).

Colon was down here during the all-star break and my son got to long toss with him for like 20 minutes, then watched his BP session where he threw like 47 of 50 pitches for strikes. These major league players are no joke. Of course he went out and got hammered his first start back!

Anyway, I digress, just thought I'd share that. I'm on the under tonight, if I lose will be happy for your win.

[Love The Action]

His numbers this year have been outstanding, miraculous really.

For risk of being a "name dropper"....My son trains with the bullpen coach for the Aguilla's, the winter league team Colon plays for down here in the D.R.. He told me going into the season that Colon was going to surprise a lot of people. 1) he had stem cells injected into his shoulder and it has revived the life in his arm and 2) he spent the whole winter just working on a 2 seamer (which he is now utilizing and has excellent movement).

Colon was down here during the all-star break and my son got to long toss with him for like 20 minutes, then watched his BP session where he threw like 47 of 50 pitches for strikes. These major league players are no joke. Of course he went out and got hammered his first start back!

Anyway, I digress, just thought I'd share that. I'm on the under tonight, if I lose will be happy for your win.

That's an awesome story...thanks for sharing. I can't imagine what a cool thrill that was for your son.

That's also an awesome story because it gives us some insight into Colon's offseason. Instead of drinking beer and eating doughnuts like we thought, he was actually training pretty hard and working on getting better. That definitely changes my thoughts about Colon somewhat. However, I do remember his days in Chicago where his work ethic was questionable.

Colon is having a great year, and like I said earlier, it's not luck. His BABIP and LOB% are right at the average. He's just pitching well and perhaps someone we should give more deference.

Anyway, thanks for the story...pretty cool.