LTA's MLB Plays

[blumpkin]

i just think at some point worley will come back down to earth. he wasnt this huge prospect the phillies were expecting great things from. sf just saw him so maybe the 2nd time around they will score some. Huff said after the 1st game in phila that worleys ball doesnt move a whole lot. only qust is can sf actually put runs on the board.

[Redscot]

I tell ya, watching the K.C. game as well, and this Paulino kid really impresses me. Gave up back to back triples to start the game,but settled down against a tough line-up and pretty much was dominant after the 1st. 70% strikes, working in and out, off speed stuff decent and hitting 96 in the 7th.

I think we have a nice under guy here, as bad as his record is and public perception. Porcello is really on a nice roll too, what efficiency!

[Love The Action]

MLB 8/5/11

Yankees/Red Sox under (9)(+100) 1x (Locked)

• I could have gotten 9.5 with heavy juice, but rolled with 9 at plus odds instead. I did this because I think this one stays way under or goes way over. However, I am investing in the under.
• Colon is pitching against Lester. Say what you will about Colon -- and I have because I watched him pitch in Chicago for the White Sox and he was a fat, lazy POS -- however, I must admit that he has pitched quite well this year. In addition, thanks to some inside info from SBR's very own Redscot, we know that Colon worked out hard all off-season and is highly motivated to have a good year in order to cash in on what could be his final contract. I don't care if Colon is motivated by money, as long as he is motivated. If you look at his stats, you can see that he has pitched well all year. Colon has a FIP, xFIP, tERA and SIERA all under 3.3. His BABIP does not evidence any extreme luck with it sitting at .300 and he has a healthy 72.1% LOB%. With Colon getting much-needed strikeouts as evidenced by his K% over 21% and crucial ground ball as shown by his GB/FB of 1.33, I think he limits the Red Sox tonight. His splits are consistent home/away and lefty/righty so nothing concerns me from that aspect and he has a solid history against Boston. In his career he has held this vaunted Red Sox lineup to a .195 BAA and an OPS under .600. That impresses me and his strong history against Boston was the clincher for me on this play. However, Lester also has impressed.
• Lester has a FIP, xFIP, tERA and SIERA under 3.5. His K% is over 23% and he gets ground balls as well with a solid 1.43 GB/FB. Even though the Yankees have won over 60% of their games against lefties in the last two years (which means you should generally always play the Yanks when they face lefties), they have not succeeded much against Lester who has held that dangerous lineup to a BAA under .240 and an OPS under .700 in going 8 -1 against the Bombers in his career. I don't think there is another lefty in the league who has given the Yanks as many problems as Lester so I think we are safe with the under here as I expect a nice game from both Colon and Lester.
• Even though both offenses are two of the best in the league, both teams also have top 10 bullpens and top 5 offenses. My model has this one at 8.2, so I really like that a total of 10 has to beat us. I think that will be tough with these two pitchers going tonight.
• I expect this to be playoff atmostphere and its a big TV game. The public is pounding the over as expected, yet we have seen early RLM on the under. I agree with the big money here and I'm rolling with the under for 1x. No ump assignments yet, but if we get an under leaning ump and the line stays steady, we may add to this play. Good luck.

Play #2
Cards/Marlins under (8.5) 1x (Locked)

Tried to lock this in earlier at plus odds, but got caught up at work. If you look ay both pitchers histories against the opposing lineups, you will see dominance by Westbrook and Sanchez. In addition, both pitchers have solid advanced stats with Sanchez having great strikeout ability and Westbrook able to induce a ton of ground ball outs. Infante, Freese, Ramirez and Molina are alll out, so that will hurt both lineups and I'm rolling with the under for 1x. Good luck.


Play #3
Detroit/KC under (9)(+100) 1x (Locked)

Got a decent price and the ump isn't bad. Redscot provided a nice summary of my thoughts on Paulino above and Porcello has been pitching well. More to come. Good luck.

Play #4
Braves/Mets under (7.5) 1x (Locked)

Play #5
Philly/Giants over (7)(+100) 1x (Locked)

Wind blowing out at 14mph. Even though the ump has a high strike rate, I think Sanchez gets knocked around tonight in his first start back from the DL. On the other side, Worley has been all-world and is due for a regression who was shut out yesterday. Will thy get shut out two days in a row, I don't think so. I decided to go for the even odds rather than eat -125 in juice. I know this hurts my odds of cashing, however, I think we see 8 and have simply decided that I will settle for the push. Good luck.

[Love The Action]

i just think at some point worley will come back down to earth. he wasnt this huge prospect the phillies were expecting great things from. sf just saw him so maybe the 2nd time around they will score some. Huff said after the 1st game in phila that worleys ball doesnt move a whole lot. only qust is can sf actually put runs on the board.

I agree...just locked in the over. Good luck

[Love The Action]

I tell ya, watching the K.C. game as well, and this Paulino kid really impresses me. Gave up back to back triples to start the game,but settled down against a tough line-up and pretty much was dominant after the 1st. 70% strikes, working in and out, off speed stuff decent and hitting 96 in the 7th.

I think we have a nice under guy here, as bad as his record is and public perception. Porcello is really on a nice roll too, what efficiency!

Exactly...I've hit unders with Paulino the last two times I played him before this game as well. The best part about Paulino is that you get a great number with him because (1) he plays for a good offensive team and (2) has not been properly priced by the books. Most of his games were in the 8 to 9.5 range and I think you will start seeing more consistent numbers in the 7.5 to 8.5 range with him moving forward. Obviously, there are plenty of other factors involved in setting these numbers, however, the starting pitchers are big part of it and Paulino has been performing well.

[Love The Action]

Looks like the bullpens will blow those solid performances by Paulino and Porcello...

[Redscot]

Looks like the bullpens will blow those solid performances by Paulino and Porcello...

Gotta admit, I am dancing with the devil here....Am on K.C. as well, so that last inning was ok by me . Hoping to get the best of both worlds now.

Agreed with you on Paulino's value, it may tighten on us going forward.

[Love The Action]

Gotta admit, I am dancing with the devil here....Am on K.C. as well, so that last inning was ok by me . Hoping to get the best of both worlds now.

Agreed with you on Paulino's value, it may tighten on us going forward.

Good luck

[Redscot]

Got yourself a very solid night going here bro, and potentially a big one. Hitting the hay, but wanted to give you your props....seems the tide is turning and July was an aberration. Hope to wake in the morn and see you got'em all.

[pacocn]

Lta, helluva night you
are on fire.

[Love The Action]

MLB 8/6/11

Play #1

Yankees -1 RL (-118) 1x (Locked)

I am sure this will be a public play, but I have to roll with Sabathia here and fade Lackey. The numbers are overwhelming and provide a huge advantage to the Yanks in starting pitching. I won't both to go through the numbers, but Sabathia dominates Lackey in every conceivable category. Lackey has a poor history against the Yankees, allowing an OPS of .800 and that is poor. I think we see a Yanks blowout. Coming into this series, the Yanks were the hotter team, they won the first game and I expect them to win this game as well. Beckett will win the third game to avoid the sweep. Locking this is now as I expect a closing price of about -126 on the -1 RL. Good luck.

[Love The Action]

MLB 8/6/11

Play #1

Yankees -1 RL (-118) 1x (Locked)

I am sure this will be a public play, but I have to roll with Sabathia here and fade Lackey. The numbers are overwhelming and provide a huge advantage to the Yanks in starting pitching. I won't both to go through the numbers, but Sabathia dominates Lackey in every conceivable category. Lackey has a poor history against the Yankees, allowing an OPS of .800 and that is poor. I think we see a Yanks blowout. Coming into this series, the Yanks were the hotter team, they won the first game and I expect them to win this game as well. Beckett will win the third game to avoid the sweep. Locking this is now as I expect a closing price of about -126 on the -1 RL. Good luck.

Play #2

Oakland/TB under (8) 1.5x (Locked)

McCarthy versus Cobb and I'm a big fan of Cobb. It's hard not to be when you see the that the 23 yr old has a FIP of 3.28, xFIP of 3.66, tERA of 3.80 and SIERA of 3.78. Being this is his first full year, I don't see his poor home splits as anything that could be considered relevant here. However, because of all his success in the minors, I think this consistently impressive numbers are something relatively solid upon which we can base our stake. Plus, he has never faced TB so he has the advantage in his matchup against the TB lineup. With a GB/FB over 2, he's one of the best at inducing ground balls and I love betting unders with the ground ball pitchers because your odds of getting double plays increase. On the other side McCarthy has really good numbers with a 2.76 FIP, 3.28 xFIP, 3.29 tERA and 3.45 SIERA. Plus, with a GB/FB of 1.55, McCarthy can also get much needed ground ball outs. Neither player has a BABIP which would lead you to believe huge regression is imminent. The ump is Jim Reynolds who before this year had a big history for overs, but this year has had more of an under lean. I really like this play and if both teams weren't hitting so well at the moment, I would make it at least 2.5x play. I may still add to this one so let's see where the line goes. Although, I suspect the under to get juiced pretty quickly. However, because of both teams' recent over streaks, I think we see the public hit the over big time. If we see the line stay stead at 8 or drop, this play should be good to go. I'm rolling with the under here for 1.5x. Good luck.

[Full-Grown]

LTA is on fiiiiya!!! Congratulations sir. Good work.

[Full-Grown]

I placed this bet myself a couple hours ago at -1 too. Lackey is just that bad and CC is just the man. And the Yankees are on fiiiya!!! Let's get it!!!

[Love The Action]

ML Action Parlay (win or lose not for records)

TB/Milwaukee/LAA
0.25x to win a little over 0.50x

Good luck!

You know you're going good when you're hitting the action parlays....

[BigBoi]

Sweep.

[Love The Action]

MLB Recap 8/5/11

5 - 0 = +5x

And we even hit the action parlay for an additional 0.50x that will not count for the records. Let's just stay hot and grind out some profit for Saturday and Sunday for back-to-back weeks in the black.

MLB Season 2011

321 - 289 = +31.625x

We just keep on grinding....

[blackeyeshamus]

fantastic!
great work, LTA.
thanks for posting!
good luck tomorrow!

[Love The Action]

MLB 8/6/11

Play #1

Yankees -1 RL (-118) 1x (Locked)

I am sure this will be a public play, but I have to roll with Sabathia here and fade Lackey. The numbers are overwhelming and provide a huge advantage to the Yanks in starting pitching. I won't both to go through the numbers, but Sabathia dominates Lackey in every conceivable category. Lackey has a poor history against the Yankees, allowing an OPS of .800 and that is poor. I think we see a Yanks blowout. Coming into this series, the Yanks were the hotter team, they won the first game and I expect them to win this game as well. Beckett will win the third game to avoid the sweep. Locking this is now as I expect a closing price of about -126 on the -1 RL. Good luck.

Play #2

Oakland/TB under (8) 1.5x (Locked)

McCarthy versus Cobb and I'm a big fan of Cobb. It's hard not to be when you see the that the 23 yr old has a FIP of 3.28, xFIP of 3.66, tERA of 3.80 and SIERA of 3.78. Being this is his first full year, I don't see his poor home splits as anything that could be considered relevant here. However, because of all his success in the minors, I think this consistently impressive numbers are something relatively solid upon which we can base our stake. Plus, he has never faced TB so he has the advantage in his matchup against the TB lineup. With a GB/FB over 2, he's one of the best at inducing ground balls and I love betting unders with the ground ball pitchers because your odds of getting double plays increase. On the other side McCarthy has really good numbers with a 2.76 FIP, 3.28 xFIP, 3.29 tERA and 3.45 SIERA. Plus, with a GB/FB of 1.55, McCarthy can also get much needed ground ball outs. Neither player has a BABIP which would lead you to believe huge regression is imminent. The ump is Jim Reynolds who before this year had a big history for overs, but this year has had more of an under lean. I really like this play and if both teams weren't hitting so well at the moment, I would make it at least 2.5x play. I may still add to this one so let's see where the line goes. Although, I suspect the under to get juiced pretty quickly. However, because of both teams' recent over streaks, I think we see the public hit the over big time. If we see the line stay stead at 8 or drop, this play should be good to go. I'm rolling with the under here for 1.5x. Good luck.

Play #3

Braves/Marlins under (7.5)(-115) 1x (Locked)

We cashed Friday's under in this series and we'll give it another shot on Saturday with Hanson and Niese going. Both pitchers are young up and coming pitchers looking to establish themselves. Hanson has a 3.29 FIP, 3.69 xFIP, 3.40 tERA and 3.58 SIERA, 26.4 K%, WHIP of 1.12 and a GB/FB over 1. Those numbers are dominant. On the other side, Niese has just as good numbers with a 3.30 FIP, 3.22 xFIP, 3.74 tERA and 3.31 SIERA with a 20% K% but an awesome GB/FB of 1.8. The history against the opposing lineups are average so I don't see that aspect playing too much of role here. I think both pitchers are hungry after having a few hiccups recently and are ready to role in this game. The ump is Bellinos with his 63.34% strike rate and his 1-4 o/u record in games set at 7.5 (not that meaningful but a fun stat). Based on the foregoing, I'm rolling with the under for 1x. Good luck.

[Love The Action]

MLB 8/6/11

Play #1

Yankees -1 RL (-118) 1x (Locked)

I am sure this will be a public play, but I have to roll with Sabathia here and fade Lackey. The numbers are overwhelming and provide a huge advantage to the Yanks in starting pitching. I won't both to go through the numbers, but Sabathia dominates Lackey in every conceivable category. Lackey has a poor history against the Yankees, allowing an OPS of .800 and that is poor. I think we see a Yanks blowout. Coming into this series, the Yanks were the hotter team, they won the first game and I expect them to win this game as well. Beckett will win the third game to avoid the sweep. Locking this is now as I expect a closing price of about -126 on the -1 RL. Good luck.

Play #2

Oakland/TB under (8) 1.5x (Locked)

McCarthy versus Cobb and I'm a big fan of Cobb. It's hard not to be when you see the that the 23 yr old has a FIP of 3.28, xFIP of 3.66, tERA of 3.80 and SIERA of 3.78. Being this is his first full year, I don't see his poor home splits as anything that could be considered relevant here. However, because of all his success in the minors, I think this consistently impressive numbers are something relatively solid upon which we can base our stake. Plus, he has never faced TB so he has the advantage in his matchup against the TB lineup. With a GB/FB over 2, he's one of the best at inducing ground balls and I love betting unders with the ground ball pitchers because your odds of getting double plays increase. On the other side McCarthy has really good numbers with a 2.76 FIP, 3.28 xFIP, 3.29 tERA and 3.45 SIERA. Plus, with a GB/FB of 1.55, McCarthy can also get much needed ground ball outs. Neither player has a BABIP which would lead you to believe huge regression is imminent. The ump is Jim Reynolds who before this year had a big history for overs, but this year has had more of an under lean. I really like this play and if both teams weren't hitting so well at the moment, I would make it at least 2.5x play. I may still add to this one so let's see where the line goes. Although, I suspect the under to get juiced pretty quickly. However, because of both teams' recent over streaks, I think we see the public hit the over big time. If we see the line stay stead at 8 or drop, this play should be good to go. I'm rolling with the under here for 1.5x. Good luck.

Play #3

Braves/Mets under (7.5)(-115) 1x (Locked)

We cashed Friday's under in this series and we'll give it another shot on Saturday with Hanson and Niese going. Both pitchers are young up and coming pitchers looking to establish themselves. Hanson has a 3.29 FIP, 3.69 xFIP, 3.40 tERA and 3.58 SIERA, 26.4 K%, WHIP of 1.12 and a GB/FB over 1. Those numbers are dominant. On the other side, Niese has just as good numbers with a 3.30 FIP, 3.22 xFIP, 3.74 tERA and 3.31 SIERA with a 20% K% but an awesome GB/FB of 1.8. The history against the opposing lineups are average so I don't see that aspect playing too much of role here. I think both pitchers are hungry after having a few hiccups recently and are ready to role in this game. The ump is Bellinos with his 63.34% strike rate and his 1-4 o/u record in games set at 7.5 (not that meaningful but a fun stat). Based on the foregoing, I'm rolling with the under for 1x. Good luck.

Play #4

Philly/Giants under (6.5)(-120) 1x (Locked)

I hate paying -120 for any total but I'm going to take the bait here. This may very well be a trap because of the recent head to head matchup between Hamels and Cain which ended in a 3 run total and the tendency for the following game in such situations to go over. However, I think tonight's game will actually influence the public to pound the over a little bit more than the aforementioned game. Nevertheless, I predict you will see the total drop to 6 by mid morning tomorrow which is why I am locking it in now. Cain and Hamels have pitched well all year. Cain is coming off a start where he gave up 5 runs. That actually helps us because it may influence others to bet the over and because he generally bounces back with a 1-2 run performance in his next start. I won't run through all the numbers but both pitchers have great advanced stats. Although there is a poor history against these lineups outside of the most recent game, I still think we see the under on Saturday. The ump has a strike rate over 63% but is otherwise pretty neutral. The intensity is ratcheted up in this series now after all the shenanigans on Friday and I think that intensity lends itself to the under with such talented starting pitchers on the mound. I'm rolling with the under for 1x. Good luck .

[jaycin]

awesome job last night!! BOL with your Saturday picks. keep up the good work!

[pacocn]

fta play 3 should be braves/mets

[Love The Action]

fta play 3 should be braves/mets

Corrected it...thanks

[Love The Action]

Will also be looking at the Cardinals/Marlins under on Saturday. The only issue is Nolasco and where the market takes the number. If we see a move toward the under, we will jump on for the ride...

A few other remaining leans as well, but I still have a little more work to do....good luck to everyone on Saturday!

[BiffTFinancial]

BOL, LTA. i will most likely be on A's/Rays under as well, and agree with your other plays. great write-ups as always.

[The Coach's Desk]

GL LTA and great job
I like all 3 under plays

I lean over in the NYY/BOS, Lackey's career stats in Fenway are atrocious and this year 6.56 era at home, CC struggles vs sox too
lost 3 straight and 4 of 5 vs them
thoughts??

[Love The Action]

Same to you...I don't know crap about cfl....is that your play? Should I tail for some action?

That's my play: Bombers+1.5, I got the under early at 50 but think 49 is still good. Sprinkle a quarter on each, don't go crazy. I have $50 on each.

GV -- thanks for the CFL winners! You made a great MLB night even better. Please feel to post any other CFL plays...I will tail your CFL "play of the week" if you feel like posting it. Thanks!

[Love The Action]

BOL, LTA. i will most likely be on A's/Rays under as well, and agree with your other plays. great write-ups as always.

Good luck today Biff!

[BiffTFinancial]

Good luck today Biff!

you too, LTA. i'm on ATL/NYM under too, can't deny the potential of the Braves against a lefty, Bellino and an under stadium.

[Love The Action]

GL LTA and great job
I like all 3 under plays

I lean over in the NYY/BOS, Lackey's career stats in Fenway are atrocious and this year 6.56 era at home, CC struggles vs sox too
lost 3 straight and 4 of 5 vs them
thoughts??

Thanks Coach...good luck to you as well.

I'm surprised to see you wanting to back the same public play on back-to-back nights. That is unlike you Coach...

While the over in a game involving Lackey is never a bad choice, I am not necessarily sold on the over in any of the games this series, despite it being the obvious play. Although, if one of the game is going to go over, it would make the most sense that today's game is the one.

Lackey's stats are putrid as you just mentioned and he clearly does not have the chops remaining to pitch in the AL East. With that said, CC is a monster and I think will be give a great performance. With a total of 9, I would not be surprised to see a 6-2 final score with the Yanks winning and the game staying under. CC gave up 6 earned runs against Boston in his last start against them and I am sure he remembers that....his worst outting of the year so far. Will he pitch as poorly again? I doubt it. The way I look at this game is that the Yanks roll and the Red Sox do not get more than 2 or 3 off Sabathia and the Yanks bullpen. I expect Sabathia to pitch deep into the 7th or 8th inning and then that killer 1-2 punch of the Yanks bullpen to take over (Soriano finally healthy and Rivera always tough)

I do not give as much deference to fading the public in MLB as I once did, say, five years ago. Generally, "the public" in MLB is lot more informed than it once was. However, in this series, I think you might be better off going with a public fade because of the amount of true "Joe Public" money you will see wagered. With this being a huge series on the East Coast and the fact that all of these are big TV games, a public fade may be more warranted here. However, I am laying off the total in this one as it's just a coinflip to me.

To me, it really just comes down to how much can the Yanks get off Lackey. If the Yanks can score 7 on their own, I think this one safely goes over. However, if for some reason the Yanks are held to 5 or 6, this game just might skate under. With Lackey, you expect a poor performance, but perhaps that rickety old body is pumped for this matchup with the playoff-like atmospher and he pitches well. I just don't know what to expect out of Lacky, and for that reason this is a no-play for me.

If you end up rolling with the over, I will be rooting for you. I hope you sweep all your plays today Coach. Good luck!!

[Redscot]

you too, LTA. i'm on ATL/NYM under too, can't deny the potential of the Braves against a lefty, Bellino and an under stadium.

Not to mention Hanson and Niese have both pitched like top 15 pitchers in the NL this year, and have good era's against their respective opponent tonight. Edit: Looked at Niese's career numbers against Braves which are good, but against this current team not so rosey albeit in limited sample size. Still.

Definitely on this one with you guys.

Again, great night LTA keep firing away bro.

[Love The Action]

MLB 8/6/11

Play #1

Yankees -1 RL (-118) 1x (Locked)

I am sure this will be a public play, but I have to roll with Sabathia here and fade Lackey. The numbers are overwhelming and provide a huge advantage to the Yanks in starting pitching. I won't both to go through the numbers, but Sabathia dominates Lackey in every conceivable category. Lackey has a poor history against the Yankees, allowing an OPS of .800 and that is poor. I think we see a Yanks blowout. Coming into this series, the Yanks were the hotter team, they won the first game and I expect them to win this game as well. Beckett will win the third game to avoid the sweep. Locking this is now as I expect a closing price of about -126 on the -1 RL. Good luck.

Play #2

Oakland/TB under (8) 1.5x (Locked)

McCarthy versus Cobb and I'm a big fan of Cobb. It's hard not to be when you see the that the 23 yr old has a FIP of 3.28, xFIP of 3.66, tERA of 3.80 and SIERA of 3.78. Being this is his first full year, I don't see his poor home splits as anything that could be considered relevant here. However, because of all his success in the minors, I think this consistently impressive numbers are something relatively solid upon which we can base our stake. Plus, he has never faced TB so he has the advantage in his matchup against the TB lineup. With a GB/FB over 2, he's one of the best at inducing ground balls and I love betting unders with the ground ball pitchers because your odds of getting double plays increase. On the other side McCarthy has really good numbers with a 2.76 FIP, 3.28 xFIP, 3.29 tERA and 3.45 SIERA. Plus, with a GB/FB of 1.55, McCarthy can also get much needed ground ball outs. Neither player has a BABIP which would lead you to believe huge regression is imminent. The ump is Jim Reynolds who before this year had a big history for overs, but this year has had more of an under lean. I really like this play and if both teams weren't hitting so well at the moment, I would make it at least 2.5x play. I may still add to this one so let's see where the line goes. Although, I suspect the under to get juiced pretty quickly. However, because of both teams' recent over streaks, I think we see the public hit the over big time. If we see the line stay stead at 8 or drop, this play should be good to go. I'm rolling with the under here for 1.5x. Good luck.

Play #3

Braves/Mets under (7.5)(-115) 1x (Locked)

We cashed Friday's under in this series and we'll give it another shot on Saturday with Hanson and Niese going. Both pitchers are young up and coming pitchers looking to establish themselves. Hanson has a 3.29 FIP, 3.69 xFIP, 3.40 tERA and 3.58 SIERA, 26.4 K%, WHIP of 1.12 and a GB/FB over 1. Those numbers are dominant. On the other side, Niese has just as good numbers with a 3.30 FIP, 3.22 xFIP, 3.74 tERA and 3.31 SIERA with a 20% K% but an awesome GB/FB of 1.8. The history against the opposing lineups are average so I don't see that aspect playing too much of role here. I think both pitchers are hungry after having a few hiccups recently and are ready to role in this game. The ump is Bellinos with his 63.34% strike rate and his 1-4 o/u record in games set at 7.5 (not that meaningful but a fun stat). Based on the foregoing, I'm rolling with the under for 1x. Good luck.

Play #4

Philly/Giants under (6.5)(-120) 1x (Locked)

I hate paying -120 for any total but I'm going to take the bait here. This may very well be a trap because of the recent head to head matchup between Hamels and Cain which ended in a 3 run total and the tendency for the following game in such situations to go over. However, I think tonight's game will actually influence the public to pound the over a little bit more than the aforementioned game. Nevertheless, I predict you will see the total drop to 6 by mid morning tomorrow which is why I am locking it in now. Cain and Hamels have pitched well all year. Cain is coming off a start where he gave up 5 runs. That actually helps us because it may influence others to bet the over and because he generally bounces back with a 1-2 run performance in his next start. I won't run through all the numbers but both pitchers have great advanced stats. Although there is a poor history against these lineups outside of the most recent game, I still think we see the under on Saturday. The ump has a strike rate over 63% but is otherwise pretty neutral. The intensity is ratcheted up in this series now after all the shenanigans on Friday and I think that intensity lends itself to the under with such talented starting pitchers on the mound. I'm rolling with the under for 1x. Good luck .

Play #5

Cards/Marlins under (8)(+100) 1x (Locked)

I jumped on this one as soon as I saw the books start to drop the juice on the over, despite the majority of bets staying in that direction. Even though Nolasco has a horrible past against the Cardinals, I think we see him pitch well today. The Cardinals lineup is missing Molina and Freese and I think that helps keep this one under the posted total. Nolasco has had a solid season and if you take a few bad outtings out of his stats, they would be truly dominant. Plus, his splits show a pitcher that historically has performed better at home this year despite some rough outtings including when we backed him on the under against the Padres and he gave up a million in the first inning. Nevertheless, this is a new day and I think we see a solid performance from Nolasco today. On the other side, Carpenter pitched poorly in his last outting and I expect him to bounce back today against a lineup that is missing Infante but will probably have a sore Ramirez read to go. How effective he will be is another story. Carpenter has been solid again this year after a rough start and posts numbers similar to Nolasco with both having encountered some tough luck with BABIPs around .330, but FIP, xFIP and SIERA in the low to mid 3's. With both pitchers around a 1.4 GB/FB, I think we see some ground ball double plays tonight. The ump is has a strike rate over 63% and that is good enough for me even with his 13-9 o/u record and 8.9 r/p/gm average. I'm rolling with the under here for 1x. Good luck.

[JR007]

Good Luck Today

[Love The Action]

Good Luck Today

Same to you JR

[Love The Action]

I have a pretty strong over lean in the Cubs/Reds game but probably no play for me...we'll see.