LTA's MLB Plays

[Love The Action]

excellent write up, LTA.
good luck tomorrow! cheers.

Another winning day, LTA!

im seeing a 2-1, 3-2 type of game in toronto this afternoon. another nice one here. Good Luck

great job yesterday Lta.. Them damn padres gave it up..Bol on your plays today.

Great job LTA

Thanks guys....good luck today!

[Love The Action]

who me

Looking forward to another solid weekend my man.

How has the NFL been to you in the past?

My most profitable sports have historically been, in order of profitability, NBA, MLB, NCAAF and NFL.

Last season, I ended up a little over +26x in NCAAF. However, I went pretty big in the Super Bowl on the under and ended up down 4x for the season in NFL. NFL was the only sport I did not turn a profit in last year by the end of the season and has me determined not to make the same mistakes. As we know, the tide has turned a bit in the NFL and it took me some time to adjust to the overwhelming over trend that occurred last season. I think I have made the necessary adjustments to my totals model based on the new rule changes and we should be good-to-go this season.

However, unlike other "cappers" around here, the month of September remains a huge MLB month for me. Rather than stop betting MLB come September like so many others, that is actually one of my strongest and most aggressive MLB months because of the playoff races and the opportunity to cash some big-game unders. During the month of September, I generally apply an aggressive approach in MLB while I take a more conservative approach in NFL and NCAAF and wait for team/player tendencies and trends to develop a bit.

[LockPickMaster]

LTA, do you cap NCAA basketball

[Love The Action]

MLB 8/13/11

Play #1

LAA/Toronto under (7) 1.5x (Locked)

I'm sure this will be one of tomorrow's bigger public plays and I think the public rides this under all the way to the bank. Weaver is coming off the suspension after throwing over 120 pitches in his last start so this rest couldn't have come a better time. I expect Weaver to be fresh and ready to roll. Although Weaver might be set to regress at some point with a BABIP coming in pretty low in the .240's and LOB% over 80%, he has a high enough K% at 22% to keep rolling and that is exactly what I think happens on Saturday afternoon. Romero has been up and down this year, but has pitched well in his last three starts after a rough July. Two of those starts were against the lefty-challenged Baltimore, but the other was against a surprisingly decent lefty hitting team in TB. I think motivation plays a key and I expect Romero to be motivated to face off against Weaver in the only game going on in the afternoon. The Angels are actually a decent left handed hitting team with team stats in the middle of the pack, but Romero knows the whole world is watching and I expect him to be prepared to face the pressure. Plus, Romero has historically pitched much better at home where his splits evidence a significant advantage in Toronto (e.g. K% 25% at home this year compared to 18% on the road, FIP 3.08 at home and 4.5 on the road, etc.) I won't go through all the stats, but both pitchers have no-hit stuff capability. I have this one coming in at 6.8, so it's not exactly like there is a ton of value per my model, but I don't base my plays strictly on the numbers alone. I think this is an intense game tomorrow and the ump is a notorious under guy with a high strike rate, so I see no reason not to pull the trigger on the under here and I am doing just that for 1.5x.

This is my only play today so far.

I will most likely be playing SD/Cincy under and KC/CSW under. Even though I wanted to lock those plays in last night because I knew I would get a worse price today, I held off because I felt it more advantageous to know the result of the LAA/Toronto under before I lock in those other plays. The result of the early game will influence how I stake the other two unders (if at all) and I didn't want to risk losing profit on a Homer Bailey-dependent under. Sure enough, the SD/Cincy and KC/CWS unders were hit by sharp money over the night and now sit with heavy juice which takes much of the value out of those plays. Therefore, the importance of cashing this early play is magnified.

As of right now, it looks like the LAA/Toronto total might drop to 6.5 or at least stay with heavy juice on the under and we will have beaten yet another closer. Good luck today guys...let's get this early game under!

[shadow13]

LAA/UN

[NCCapper]

Thanks for the tip!

[Love The Action]

LTA, do you cap NCAA basketball

No, other than some action plays, I really didn't play NCAAB too much last season. I felt that, although there was money to be made in NCAAB, the books presented some challenges to someone like myself who primarily invests in the totals markets.

The books realized the totals market in NCAAB was vulnerable to sharp money and made some adjustments last season which resulted in less totals released or a later release time for the earlier part of the season. Plus, I feel that you are better off playing totals in a market where games are played on a more regular basis than NCAAB because you can get a better feel for team trends, the opportunity for streaks, etc.

Because of my historical success in NBA, I felt it was better to concentrate on the investment opportunities in that market rather than split my time between NBA and NCAAB. This is also the case this year with MLB and WNBA. I thought my MLB investment process was hurt when I was splitting time between MLB and WNBA. Because of my historical success in MLB, I decided to concentrate primarily on MLB and that decision has proved successful.

Now that I am a father, I really have to be more efficient in the time I allocate to sports investing and need to limit myself to my most successful investment portfolios. The sheer amount of games, conferences and players makes NCAAB an extreme challenge. I am a firm believer that if I cannot concentrate on something 100%, then my odds of profiting are already limited and the expected value of all my plays is diminished. Therefore, I did not seriously play the NCAAB market last year.

[Dexter]

However, unlike other "cappers" around here, the month of September remains a huge MLB month for me. Rather than stop betting MLB come September like so many others, that is actually one of my strongest and most aggressive MLB months because of the playoff races and the opportunity to cash some big-game unders. During the month of September, I generally apply an aggressive approach in MLB while I take a more conservative approach in NFL and NCAAF and wait for team/player tendencies and trends to develop a bit.

same here...

[Redscot]

Re-post from BigD's thread because I value your opinion my man.

Thoughts on Fla./SF under? Vasquez sporting a low 2's era over his last 10 starts, Timmy on the bump and both teams struggling to score runs Fla. avg 3rpg and SF 2.3rpg over there last 10 games against RHP. Looks like line will move to 7. Very tempted, but it means trusting Vazquez .

Where do you have this on capped bro?

On the early under with you, now see no Bautista, can't hurt. GL

[Dexter]

MLB 8/13/11

Play #1

LAA/Toronto under (7) 1.5x (Locked)

I'm sure this will be one of tomorrow's bigger public plays and I think the public rides this under all the way to the bank. Weaver is coming off the suspension after throwing over 120 pitches in his last start so this rest couldn't have come a better time. I expect Weaver to be fresh and ready to roll. Although Weaver might be set to regress at some point with a BABIP coming in pretty low in the .240's and LOB% over 80%, he has a high enough K% at 22% to keep rolling and that is exactly what I think happens on Saturday afternoon. Romero has been up and down this year, but has pitched well in his last three starts after a rough July. Two of those starts were against the lefty-challenged Baltimore, but the other was against a surprisingly decent lefty hitting team in TB. I think motivation plays a key and I expect Romero to be motivated to face off against Weaver in the only game going on in the afternoon. The Angels are actually a decent left handed hitting team with team stats in the middle of the pack, but Romero knows the whole world is watching and I expect him to be prepared to face the pressure. Plus, Romero has historically pitched much better at home where his splits evidence a significant advantage in Toronto (e.g. K% 25% at home this year compared to 18% on the road, FIP 3.08 at home and 4.5 on the road, etc.) I won't go through all the stats, but both pitchers have no-hit stuff capability. I have this one coming in at 6.8, so it's not exactly like there is a ton of value per my model, but I don't base my plays strictly on the numbers alone. I think this is an intense game tomorrow and the ump is a notorious under guy with a high strike rate, so I see no reason not to pull the trigger on the under here and I am doing just that for 1.5x.

glad to see you on this one as well....

[BigDan]

LTA i for the most part am not all that great at nba, not bad but certainly not great and honestly i dont play a real lot of nba gms after Christmas (until playoffs), maybe a few a week, as im pretty much full time on college hoops, i think we will work out well together cause w/o trying to sound cocky i typically punish ncaa bb like no other sport ( the guys that know me around here would back that up im sure). I will certainly be up in your NBA threads cause like you i dont really have time to focus on nba and ncaa but unlike you my focus is much better served in what i feel is the most beatable sport by far (for me anyway). Hopefully you can get me some units in NBA while im getting you on board with my college plays (far warning i play a ton of gms, typically 3-7 a day thru the week and anywhere from 10-20 on sat) but ive found in college hoops there so many lines worth betting on a consistent basis that this the only way to go for me..

[BigDan]

im with both you guys dex and LTA, typically in the past i normally just get burtn out on baseball by this time but that the reason i waited till june to jump in as i wanted to keep interest these last 2 months and im all for slow rolling col and nfl the 1st month....hopefully we can continue to bang out winners. really like the group of guys we have around here now as it reminds me of back in the day in ncaa bb with me, ice miners, a fw others (sorry my memory sux with names) and all the guys who used to be up in my thread (you know who you are, if you know who i am anyway)...your boy 2DB...

[Redscot]

Glad to hear that about College hoops BigD. Between you and LTA should give me a big help on the college sports, which I really have not dabbled in much other than the occasional bet.

[freshguy222]

bigdan, will you make a thread for ncaa? still looking for a good capper in college basketball

[blackeyeshamus]

following the heavily juiced under 1x.
thank you very much, gentlemen!
rolling with the halos on ML 1x, as well.
good luck all around today! let's get 'em!

[blackeyeshamus]

by the way:
ncaa football is my favorite game,
and I intend to win 100 units on the college gridiron.
following you all the way! baseball is my nemesis...
good luck, bros. LTA, big dan, redscot, dexter, LPM.
good luck all around! let's get 'em!

[Redscot]

by the way:
ncaa football is my favorite game,
and I intend to win 100 units on the college gridiron.
following you all the way! baseball is my nemesis...
good luck, bros. LTA, big dan, redscot, dexter, LPM.
good luck all around! let's get 'em!

Right on brother, same to you and all the rest of the positive vibes crew here at SBR.

[blumpkin]

Laa/Tor just moved to U 6.5

[BigDan]

bigdan, will you make a thread for ncaa? still looking for a good capper in college basketball

i will do daily's and post my thoughts and plays (like i do in baseball and have did with ncaa bb in the past), i will not do a season long or really promote my record as i prefer to keep it low key as i find it much better to have a core of solid guys around (like the ones we have in baseball atm) than a bunch of ppl looking for a savior (which i am clearly not).

[Love The Action]

Re-post from BigD's thread because I value your opinion my man.

Thoughts on Fla./SF under? Vasquez sporting a low 2's era over his last 10 starts, Timmy on the bump and both teams struggling to score runs Fla. avg 3rpg and SF 2.3rpg over there last 10 games against RHP. Looks like line will move to 7. Very tempted, but it means trusting Vazquez .

Where do you have this on capped bro?

On the early under with you, now see no Bautista, can't hurt. GL

That's a pass for me, but can't disagree with your logic. Nevertheless, Vazquez has poor history against the scuffling Giants lineup and at some point they are going to put a few runs on the board. I have that one set at 6.9, so I think it's accurately priced at that 6.5 to 7 range. I could see this hitting 7 and those that bet it at 6.5 losing. BOL if you play it

[Love The Action]

glad to see you on this one as well....

Same here...let's get it Dex!

[BigDan]

That's a pass for me, but can't disagree with your logic. Nevertheless, Vazquez has poor history against the scuffling Giants lineup and at some point they are going to put a few runs on the board. I have that one set at 6.9, so I think it's accurately priced at that 6.5 to 7 range. I could see this hitting 7 and those that bet it at 6.5 losing. BOL if you play it

had about the same thoughts here. 1st glance i really wanted to get on it but you rigth Vazquez is always susceptible to a blowup and SF really needs to proove to themselves they cn score runs, if they dont today not sure they ever will.

[Love The Action]

LTA i for the most part am not all that great at nba, not bad but certainly not great and honestly i dont play a real lot of nba gms after Christmas (until playoffs), maybe a few a week, as im pretty much full time on college hoops, i think we will work out well together cause w/o trying to sound cocky i typically punish ncaa bb like no other sport ( the guys that know me around here would back that up im sure). I will certainly be up in your NBA threads cause like you i dont really have time to focus on nba and ncaa but unlike you my focus is much better served in what i feel is the most beatable sport by far (for me anyway). Hopefully you can get me some units in NBA while im getting you on board with my college plays (far warning i play a ton of gms, typically 3-7 a day thru the week and anywhere from 10-20 on sat) but ive found in college hoops there so many lines worth betting on a consistent basis that this the only way to go for me..

Awesome...I look forward to following your NCAAB thread

[shocktopme]

by the way: ncaa football is my favorite game, and I intend to win 100 units on the college gridiron. following you all the way! baseball is my nemesis... good luck, bros. LTA, big dan, redscot, dexter, LPM. good luck all around! let's get 'em!

Yeah college football rocks!!!!!My favorite too!!!!!!!

[Love The Action]

Laa/Tor just moved to U 6.5

We beat yet another closer

Good luck

[shocktopme]

.

Lets gettem LTA.....Im on board Angels/Jays under......Shoulda jumped on under 6.5 too but ran outta time.....ROCK ON!!!

[unamed1]

Got it at u7 -125, a little heavier than I wanted but looks good and the TX Under 7 -110--now the hard part, the wait lol

[shocktopme]

.

I think that SOB Jays fan that steals pitching signs and waves arms when breaking ball comin showed up today!!!!*LOL*

[slyone66]

rough start to the day.

[Love The Action]

rough start to the day.

Sorry bud...unfortunately, that sort of thing comes with the business. However, I would much rather lose in a blowout like, than one of those 9th inning bullpen losses like we suffered three times this week already.

Nothing we can do but move on. Three more plays coming up and the card is complete. Good luck tonight

[Love The Action]

MLB 8/13/11

Play #1

LAA/Toronto under (7) 1.5x (Locked)

I'm sure this will be one of tomorrow's bigger public plays and I think the public rides this under all the way to the bank. Weaver is coming off the suspension after throwing over 120 pitches in his last start so this rest couldn't have come a better time. I expect Weaver to be fresh and ready to roll. Although Weaver might be set to regress at some point with a BABIP coming in pretty low in the .240's and LOB% over 80%, he has a high enough K% at 22% to keep rolling and that is exactly what I think happens on Saturday afternoon. Romero has been up and down this year, but has pitched well in his last three starts after a rough July. Two of those starts were against the lefty-challenged Baltimore, but the other was against a surprisingly decent lefty hitting team in TB. I think motivation plays a key and I expect Romero to be motivated to face off against Weaver in the only game going on in the afternoon. The Angels are actually a decent left handed hitting team with team stats in the middle of the pack, but Romero knows the whole world is watching and I expect him to be prepared to face the pressure. Plus, Romero has historically pitched much better at home where his splits evidence a significant advantage in Toronto (e.g. K% 25% at home this year compared to 18% on the road, FIP 3.08 at home and 4.5 on the road, etc.) I won't go through all the stats, but both pitchers have no-hit stuff capability. I have this one coming in at 6.8, so it's not exactly like there is a ton of value per my model, but I don't base my plays strictly on the numbers alone. I think this is an intense game tomorrow and the ump is a notorious under guy with a high strike rate, so I see no reason not to pull the trigger on the under here and I am doing just that for 1.5x.

Play #2

Astros/Dodgers under (6) 1x (Locked)

Wandy has held his own this year on the road, whereas before he was only reliable at home. I was impressed by his last performance against AZ where he held them to 2 earned runs. If he can provide a similar performance at Chavez Ravin, I think we should have no problem cashing this game. Kershaw is a beast and coming off a 4 earner run performance. I expect that he cuts that number in half this game. Generally, after a low scoring game like yesterday, I am hesitant to roll under again. However, with these two weak-hitting teams, who are even worse against lefties, I have to roll under yet again. Campos is the ump with a strike rate over 63% and solid under lean. I have this one at 5.5 and it's going to take 7 runs to lose, so I'm rolling with the under for 1x.

Play #3

Padres/Reds under (8.5)(-115) 0.50x (Locked)

I really like this play, but it's difficult to trust Bailey here after his recent performance. However, I am going to give him the benefit of the doubt and roll with the under here for 0.50x. Stauffer struggled early in his previous start against the Mets as well, but I like both pitchers to bounce back. The Padres are hitting better of late, but are still a weak offense that can be limited by Bailey. The Reds offense has struggled against righties, hitting a mere .218 BA in their last ten games. The ump has a strike rate right at 63%, but really doesn't lean one way or the other. I have this one at 7.7 and I don't see it going over 8, so I will take the under here for 0.50x.

Play #4

KC/CWS under (8)(+100) 0.50x (Locked)

Peavy has impressed lately and so has Hochevar. I didn't think Peavy would get to the point where he could make it past the 100 pitch mark successfully, but he has done so in his last three starts. Perhaps I am late backing him here and that is why I will keep it light at 0.50x. There is rain in Chicago, so that could make things a bit more reliant on the bullpen, however, both offenses are scuffling a bit here and hitting unders in bunches of late. The ump has a big over lean, but that could be coincidence. He has a strike rate of 63.2% and that is good enough for me. Despite the weather concerns, I think this one is a quick, low-scoring games that ends under 2 1/2 hours and under 8 runs, so I'm rolling with the under for 0.50x.

[Love The Action]

Play #2

Astros/Dodgers under (6) 1x (Locked)

Wandy has held his own this year on the road, whereas before he was only reliable at home. I was impressed by his last performance against AZ where he held them to 2 earned runs. If he can provide a similar performance at Chavez Ravin, I think we should have no problem cashing this game. Kershaw is a beast and coming off a 4 earner run performance. I expect that he cuts that number in half this game. Generally, after a low scoring game like yesterday, I am hesitant to roll under again. However, with these two weak-hitting teams, who are even worse against lefties, I have to roll under yet again. Campos is the ump with a strike rate over 63% and solid under lean. I have this one at 5.5 and it's going to take 7 runs to lose, so I'm rolling with the under for 1x.

Play #3

Padres/Reds under (8.5)(-115) 0.50x (Locked)

I really like this play, but it's difficult to trust Bailey here after his recent performance. However, I am going to give him the benefit of the doubt and roll with the under here for 0.50x. Stauffer struggled early in his previous start against the Mets as well, but I like both pitchers to bounce back. The Padres are hitting better of late, but are still a weak offense that can be limited by Bailey. The Reds offense has struggled against righties, hitting a mere .218 BA in their last ten games. The ump has a strike rate right at 63%, but really doesn't lean one way or the other. I have this one at 7.7 and I don't see it going over 8, so I will take the under here for 0.50x.

Play #4

KC/CWS under (8)(+100) 0.50x (Locked)

Peavy has impressed lately and so has Hochevar. I didn't think Peavy would get to the point where he could make it past the 100 pitch mark successfully, but he has done so in his last three starts. Perhaps I am late backing him here and that is why I will keep it light at 0.50x. There is rain in Chicago, so that could make things a bit more reliant on the bullpen, however, both offenses are scuffling a bit here and hitting unders in bunches of late. The ump has a big over lean, but that could be coincidence. He has a strike rate of 63.2% and that is good enough for me. Despite the weather concerns, I think this one is a quick, low-scoring games that ends under 2 1/2 hours and under 8 runs, so I'm rolling with the under for 0.50x.

Card is final at the above four plays. I'm out for the night to have some drinks with the wife and friends. We'll play it light tonight and protect the winnings we have earned so far this week. Good luck to everyone on their plays!

[Redscot]

Card is final at the above four plays. I'm out for the night to have some drinks with the wife and friends. We'll play it light tonight and protect the winnings we have earned so far this week. Good luck to everyone on their plays!

Have a good one with the Fam tonight LTA, will be rooting your plays in for ya here.

[slyone66]

with you for the day LTA, and very true about the jays blow out. thanks for the picks have a great nite out. you deserve it

[Love The Action]

Damn...just woke up to find yesterdays debacle...sorry guys. Stauffer got lit up by the reds, rain delays hurt us in the sox game and we just missed cashing the dodgers under by one run thanks to couple bad innings. Glad I purposefully avoided the scores last night, but waking up to a hangover and a bloodbath is not what I had in mind for Sunday morning.

Oh well, we all know the drill...that's just baseball and we move onto the next card. Going to do that right now...back later with some plays. Hopefully, we can still spot some value and beat the line moves. I will update the records after tonight. We are still up over two units on the week, so lets have a big day and build on that!