LTA's MLB Plays

**Redscot** · 08-16-11, 08:37 PM

Originally posted by Love The Action

Wow...congrats bud. So is he going to finish last couple years of high school or off to college at a young age? Either way, that is quite an accomplishment and you should be very proud. It is clear you and your wife have done a great job as parents and that's the most important job we all have. Good work Red!

Thanks my man. Wife is no joke. Yup, gonna finish off his last 2 years of H.S. in the States, better opportunities for baseball and education. He could have joined a big league camp here, but it's a meat market, short sighted money. All about the college scholarship.

**BernardMadoff** · 08-16-11, 08:40 PM

good luck

**Love The Action** · 08-16-11, 08:50 PM

Originally posted by BernardMadoff

good luck

Same to you Bernie!

**Love The Action** · 08-16-11, 08:51 PM

Man...bullpen curse strike again as Salas blows the push in the Cardinals game and who knows what else...

**Redscot** · 08-16-11, 08:53 PM

Originally posted by Love The Action

Man...bullpen curse strike again as Salas blows the push in the Cardinals game and who knows what else...

Yeah man, I was rocking the under on this one. What gives.

**Love The Action** · 08-16-11, 09:22 PM

Originally posted by Redscot

Yeah man, I was rocking the under on this one. What gives.

Looks like the Stros bullpen is going to blow my Cubs under as well...a calculated risk that failed

**Love The Action** · 08-16-11, 09:36 PM

Really like the Giants tomorrow over the Braves. With Jurrjens coming off the DL, who knows what he's going to be able to provide. As you know, I like fading pitchers coming off the DL and with Cain getting +128, I think there's some value as I have the Giants at about +120. Need to look a little closer but that's a pretty strong lean.

**alamo** · 08-16-11, 09:36 PM

Jones just sent one out of the ball park in Pittsburgh so that one is done too

**alamo** · 08-16-11, 09:51 PM

3 More outs for a miracle under in Houston. We need this one bad guys so lets cheer it on

**Love The Action** · 08-16-11, 10:05 PM

Originally posted by alamo

Jones just sent one out of the ball park in Pittsburgh so that one is done too

Yeah...the Cards are cooked. It's going to be very hard for them to come back from this kind of deficit to Milwaukee. That was a strong situational play with the Cards in an almost must-win situation to keep pace with the Brewers and their ace on the mound against a guy that is pitching over his head.

Everyone that was touting the Cardinals bullpen after the trade must be very disappointed. However, not as disappointed as us.

**Love The Action** · 08-16-11, 10:06 PM

And now we get Marmoled...unreal

**Dexter** · 08-16-11, 10:06 PM

brutal beat in hou....thankfully it wasnt a large play

**Love The Action** · 08-16-11, 10:09 PM

Originally posted by Dexter

brutal beat in hou....thankfully it wasnt a large play

It is what it is...however, when you lose seven plays representing about 12x of profit in the last week because of ninth inning bullpen collapses, it gets a bit frustrating. But that's MLB for you...

**Redscot** · 08-16-11, 10:37 PM

Originally posted by Love The Action

It is what it is...however, when you lose seven plays representing about 12x of profit in the last week because of ninth inning bullpen collapses, it gets a bit frustrating. But that's MLB for you...

I had the Cubs side too!

Wow! I have always been semi interested in the FF, seriously considering exploring that side of capping a bit more. Eliminates a lot of variables really in this day and age where you see 3-4 pitchers from the 6th on as the norm.

Oh well, the house got their money back tonight

, not the first time.

Tomorrow is another day.

**Love The Action** · 08-16-11, 10:41 PM

MLB 8/17/11

Play #1

Giants ML (+130) 1.5x (Locked)

Play #2

LAD/Brewers under (7.5)(-115) 1x (Locked)

I'll try to get some notes about these up tomorrow. GL.

**Love The Action** · 08-16-11, 10:45 PM

Originally posted by Redscot

I had the Cubs side too!

Wow! I have always been semi interested in the FF, seriously considering exploring that side of capping a bit more. Eliminates a lot of variables really in this day and age where you see 3-4 pitchers from the 6th on as the norm.

Oh well, the house got their money back tonight

, not the first time.

Tomorrow is another day.

The ones you would win in the FF and lose full game versus lose FF and win full game, generally even out in my experience. But if you think you have the edge FF, you have to take it...

**hawley** · 08-16-11, 11:19 PM

LTA this is getting silly now

tough beat bro

**Full-Grown** · 08-17-11, 01:39 AM

I feel your pain LTA. I had the under in St Louis as well as the Cubs and the under. Nasty day.

**aussieH** · 08-17-11, 04:04 AM

Keep up the hard work LTA

**Love The Action** · 08-17-11, 07:19 AM

MLB Recap 8/17/11

2 - 2 = -0.17x

Our two losses were directly attributable to ninth inning bullpen collapses. So far, in the last 10 days, we have lost 7 plays worth 12x from that same situation. That tells me we are about to start winning some games in the late innings because we sure have not received the benefit of late innings wins to date...

MLB Season 2011

342 - 308 = +30.13x

Time to get back on track. Good luck.

**Love The Action** · 08-17-11, 07:39 AM

Originally posted by Love The Action

MLB 8/17/11

Play #1

Giants ML (+130) 1.5x (Locked)

Jurrjens is coming off the DL for a knee injury. I always tend to fade pitchers coming off the DL and especially when I can get Cain at +130. I have the Giants at +120 in this one, despite their recent struggles. Both Cain and Jurrjens are in the top echelon of NL pitchers, but a healthy Cain versus a rusty Jurrjens gives us the advantage. Situationally, this is a must-win for the Giants. They are slipping in the standings and need a win here. I think there are enough factors to roll with the Giants and I am doing just that for 1.5x. GL.

Play #2

LAD/Brewers under (7.5)(-115) 1x (Locked)

Eavoldi is one of the top Dodgers' prospects and Greinke's numbers point to dominance in the 2h of the season. Greinke is 14-3 o/u and I predict a run of unders for Greinke as the playoff races heat up. I generally hate taking unders in Brewers, but they have cashed both games of this series so far. Perhaps I am late to the under party, but I have to roll that way with Eavoldi having the advantage of the Brewers unfamiliarity with him. Guccione is the ump who seems to have an over lean, but that is really just circumstance when you look deeper. He has a 63.1% strike rate (I like anywhere over 63%) and his previous season do not show an over tendency. I like the under here and am rolling that way for 1x. GL.

There are my thoughts on our first two plays. Will probably have a few more...good luck today!

**Redscot** · 08-17-11, 07:43 AM

Originally posted by Love The Action

There are my thoughts on our first two plays. Will probably have a few more...good luck today!

I was impressed with Eavoldi watching his last start. Like the plays LTA, GL today

**Love The Action** · 08-17-11, 07:51 AM

Originally posted by Redscot

I was impressed with Eavoldi watching his last start. Like the plays LTA, GL today

Good luck today Red

**Love The Action** · 08-17-11, 08:12 AM

Might make a play on the Detroit Lions against the Browns this weekend as a pre-season action play. I have to get my football threads up soon.

Looks like I will cash that easy 2x prop winner I posted in my old NBA thread on the NFL starting its regular season on time on Sept 8th. That will have been the easiest 2x I ever made once it hits my account...it was obvious from day 1 that the NFL would not miss games. The NBA, on the other hand, is a different story and i would not be surprised if they miss the whole season...

**GGALLERT** · 08-17-11, 10:16 AM

Hall of Fame Game?????

Originally posted by Love The Action

Might make a play on the Detroit Lions against the Browns this weekend as a pre-season action play. I have to get my football threads up soon.

Looks like I will cash that easy 2x prop winner I posted in my old NBA thread on the NFL starting its regular season on time on Sept 8th. That will have been the easiest 2x I ever made once it hits my account...it was obvious from day 1 that the NFL would not miss games. The NBA, on the other hand, is a different story and i would not be surprised if they miss the whole season...

LTA, was there any disclosures counting the Hall of Fame Game? I know i got smashed by that game getting cancelled.

**Love The Action** · 08-17-11, 10:22 AM

Originally posted by GGALLERT

LTA, was there any disclosures counting the Hall of Fame Game? I know i got smashed by that game getting cancelled.

Nope...that didn't hurt my bet. My bet is on the regular season games start on time (Sept 8th). Preseason has no bearing on my play.

How is the baby and fam? GL today

**shortdog** · 08-17-11, 10:39 AM

Bol today rta

**investing4us** · 08-17-11, 11:06 AM

Mil is 22-2-4 since mid July on the unders. Good luck LTA. I will tail you on this play.

**GGALLERT** · 08-17-11, 11:09 AM

Originally posted by Love The Action

Nope...that didn't hurt my bet. My bet is on the regular season games start on time (Sept 8th). Preseason has no bearing on my play.

How is the baby and fam? GL today

Fam is doing awesome, little one needs to sleep a little more but all in stride...

Remember these beats will go our way also...

**Love The Action** · 08-17-11, 03:27 PM

Originally posted by Love The Action

MLB 8/17/11

Play #1

Giants ML (+130) 1.5x (Locked)

Jurrjens is coming off the DL for a knee injury. I always tend to fade pitchers coming off the DL and especially when I can get Cain at +130. I have the Giants at +120 in this one, despite their recent struggles. Both Cain and Jurrjens are in the top echelon of NL pitchers, but a healthy Cain versus a rusty Jurrjens gives us the advantage. Situationally, this is a must-win for the Giants. They are slipping in the standings and need a win here. I think there are enough factors to roll with the Giants and I am doing just that for 1.5x. GL.

Play #2

LAD/Brewers under (7.5)(-115) 1x (Locked)

Eavoldi is one of the top Dodgers' prospects and Greinke's numbers point to dominance in the 2h of the season. Greinke is 14-3 o/u and I predict a run of unders for Greinke as the playoff races heat up. I generally hate taking unders in Brewers, but they have cashed both games of this series so far. Perhaps I am late to the under party, but I have to roll that way with Eavoldi having the advantage of the Brewers unfamiliarity with him. Guccione is the ump who seems to have an over lean, but that is really just circumstance when you look deeper. He has a 63.1% strike rate (I like anywhere over 63%) and his previous season do not show an over tendency. I like the under here and am rolling that way for 1x. GL.

Play #3

Reds -1RL (-120) 1x (Locked)

Reds kill lefties and have a huge advantage in starting pitchers today. GL.

Play #4

Blue Jays -1RL (-120) 1x (Locked)

Blue Jays have superior pitching and offense today. GL.

Sorry, busy with work and capping so cant provide full writeups from my phone. Might have another play or two as well. Good luck.

**Redscot** · 08-17-11, 03:43 PM

Originally posted by Love The Action

Play #3

Reds -1RL (-120) 1x (Locked)

Reds kill lefties and have a huge advantage in starting pitchers today. GL.

Play #4

Blue Jays -1RL (-120) 1x (Locked)

Blue Jays have superior pitching and offense today. GL.

Sorry, busy with work and capping so cant provide full writeups from my phone. Might have another play or two as well. Good luck.

Really like the Toronto play tonight, Morrow should be in a good spot here.

**Love The Action** · 08-17-11, 04:21 PM

Probably playing padres -1rl as well....

**Redscot** · 08-17-11, 04:33 PM

Originally posted by Love The Action

Probably playing padres -1rl as well....

Don't need to twist my arm on that one. On it fairly big. GL if you play it bud.

**Jago2008** · 08-17-11, 04:41 PM

I love the Cinn. pick. Cuetto has been dominant.

Padres also a solid pick as Latos has been great @ Petco (then again who isn't), but what has changed is Padres offense is averaging 6.8 runs per game in the last 10 games.

**Redscot** · 08-17-11, 05:27 PM

Wow. Had a sizable bet on Oak -1 R/L. Feel lucky to get the push at this point.

Unreal. I wan'em dead, all Bp's can catch the bozack right now.

Sorry had to vent. Let's get these night games fellas.