LTA's MLB Plays

[Love The Action]

Good luck tonight. Like that Cleveland play. Masterson is very tough on right handed batters and should dominate that right handed heavy Sox line-up.

Thanks...you too!

I don't understand why the price on the tribe has dropped so much, but I'm sure glad it did....

[Redscot]

Boy did we get great value jumping that Zona line early. Phillies lineup causing some serious movement. Nice call my man.

[Love The Action]

MLB 8/18/11

Play #1

Boston/KC under (8.5)(-115) 1x (Locked)

Even though I think Beckett regresses throughout this last part of the season, I think he keeps the Royals in check today limiting them to no more than a couple runs through 7 innings. As we all know, Beckett's numbers have been dominate all year. His K% is around 22%, WHIP under 1, BAA under .200 and FIP, xFIP, tERA and SIERA all in the 3.3 to 3.5 range. Even though his BABIP is way low at .233 and his LOB% way high over 83%, his ability to get key strikeouts shows that, even though he is due to regress, perhaps that regression may not be so dramatic. Yes, he gave up 5 runs in his last outting, however, based on this season, whenever he has given up 3 or more runs, he bounces back by allowing less than 3 earned runs in his next game. A small sample size for sure, yet it shows Beckett's short term tendencies and perhaps he is using his mind more than his physical tools for the first time in his career. On the other side, Hochevar has pitched well of late and has the ability to keep the ball on the ground. With Ortiz out, the Boston offense has missed his punch and has been struggling coming into this one. Both teams home/away splits show the under has hit more often than not when Boston is on the road and when KC is at home. I have this one set at 7.8 and it's going to take a final score of 9 to beat me, so I think we have enough value here to pull the trigger on the under. I think this one ends up with a 5-2 type game and I'm rolling with the under for 1x. GL.

Play #2

Diamondbacks ML (+140) 1x (Locked)

Worley has posted solid numbers, but I think you see this line stay steady at +140 or even drop a bit as the day goes on. I have a fair line of +129 for this one, so we are getting over 10 cents of "value" here. I am not one to fade the Phillies this season, especially since the Pence trade. However, even though Worley has never faced the Diamondbacks heading into this game which gives him a solid advantage, I think the D-backs steal this series and knock Worley around a bit today. Worley's advanced splits show he has already started to regress a bit as his numbers have gotten worse from June to July and from July to August. Plus, the guy is rocking a BABIP around .200 with a LOB over 80% when pitching in Philly, so I think those numbers start to really regress. On the other side, Kennedy has been dominate winning 7 games in a row and posting season numbers that support that streak with a K% over 20%, WHIP at 1.1 and FIP, xFIP, tERA and SIERA all in the 3.5 range. Plus, over a very small sample size of 59 AB's, Kennedy has just dominated the Philly lineup holding them to a BAA of .153 and OPS of .452. We are getting over 10 cents of "value" with Kennedy on the mound today, so I see no reason not to take a chance with the D-backs at such a good price. Every year, there are one or two teams who overachieve their way into the playoffs. The D-backs have made a believer out of me after doubting them because of the loss of Drew. I thought that would really hurt their offense and faded them right after his injury. That was a mistake and I lost a few units because of it. I'm not saying the D-backs will win the world series, however, they are shaping up to be this year's "little engine that could" just like the 2010 Giants, 2003 Marlins, 2005 White Sox and 2008 Cardinals or any of the teams in the past who overcame perceived weaknesses, got hot late in the season and were able find playoff success. I think the D-backs have momentum coming into this game. Yes, they ended up losing what was a close game until the late innings, but they did beat Doc in Philly in the first game of the series which must have given them a confidence boost. I don't think Kennedy and the D-backs are intimidated at all by the Phillies and I think they have the clear edge in starting pitching today. In addition, the D-backs actually have an offense that rates a bit better than Philly, with a slightly better bullpen and defense which is tops in the league as opposed to Philly who rates in the bottom third of the league in that category. Let's see where the line movement takes us today, but I expect the D-backs price to stay steady or for a drop. I don't expect a run on the Phillies, so I locked in the D-backs early for 1x. GL.

Play #3

Nationals -1 RL (+105) 1x (Locked)

Running really late for work, so I will just say this. Arroyo has pitched well of late but the advantage in starting pitching here is significant with Zimm having a +3.8 edge in WAR and over 1 point advantage in FIP, xFIP, tERA and SIERA with a huge advantage in K% as well. Zimm will be shut down soon because of his innings cap and I expect him to close strong. With that said, I would rather risk the push and take the Natties at plus odds as opposed to eating -140 juice. I guess the huge plus odds on the 1.5 RL gives us a hint that the books expect a close a game, however, I will take my chances. The Natties are a great home team and the Reds are a poor road team. I will always back the huge starting pitching disparity in this situation every time and will back the Natties here at home with Zimm on the amount for 1x. GL.

Play #4

Indians ML (-113) 1x (Locked)


We have two starting pitchers going in opposite directions. Humber is regressing while Masterson has been masterful. Masterson holds a significant edge in advanced stats despite Humbers career year. I have this one at -119, as a result of Humbers recent slide. Even though he has not faced the tribe before, I still expect struggles. The sox have been a poor home team and their offense will struggle without Pierzynski. These teams are evenly matched outside of tonights starters, but the tribe has a significant edge in that category and I am backing them for 1x. GL.

Play #5

Yankees -1.5 RL (-135) 0.75x (Locked)

I generally don't play -1.5 RL's, however, I just could not pass this up once I saw the twins lineup. Sabathia dominates lefties and all but two twins are lefties tonight. Additionally, when facing lefties, the yanks also dominate as evidenced by their 60%+ winning percentage against lefties over the last two years. Finally, the yanks have owned the twins over the last few years, especially in the playoffs. There is just too much in favor of the yanks not to play them in this spot. I'm rolling with the yanks, but because of the high juice and possible loss on a one run game, I will stake it at 0.75x. GL.

[Love The Action]

Looks like we will crush the closer in all of our plays, especially that AZ play. I predicted that line movement spot on. Good luck tonight. I am still considering the blue jays, but probably will pass on that one. Im feeling a big night tonight....lets get this cash money!

[gunnersgun]

Really like ur threads/write ups lta...while i personally don't have the balls to take the d'backs and yanks rl (i just hate taking rl, too painful when they win by 1), i'm gonna ride with you on the indians. here's hoping that your streak of ridiculous 9th inning absurdity is over, or at least that the indians go unaffected

[shortdog]

Bol Lta.. A true professional

[Love The Action]

Really like ur threads/write ups lta...while i personally don't have the balls to take the d'backs and yanks rl (i just hate taking rl, too painful when they win by 1), i'm gonna ride with you on the indians. here's hoping that your streak of ridiculous 9th inning absurdity is over, or at least that the indians go unaffected

I hate -1.5 RL's too, but I think the yanks roll tonight.

Lets get that indians play

Thanks for dropping by...good luck on all your plays

[BiffTFinancial]

BOL, LTA. on Tribe/CWS under, and Tribe ML sure is tempting.

[Love The Action]

Boy did we get great value jumping that Zona line early. Phillies lineup causing some serious movement. Nice call my man.

Lets do it Red

I'm very excited about this card...i think we have some winners!

[Love The Action]

Bol Lta.. A true professional

Thanks bud...good luck tonight!

[Love The Action]

BOL, LTA. on Tribe/CWS under, and Tribe ML sure is tempting.

I lean under in that tribe game as well, but I also think Humber gets knocked around, so I like the ML a little better. Good luck on all your plays Biff!

[Redscot]

Lets do it Red

I'm very excited about this card...i think we have some winners!

Feelin' good about it too bro. Gonna kick my book while he is down 4 Units on the Dodger under , you and Biff Tee gave me the little extra confidence I needed to go big on it. Here's hoping you kill it tonight.

[BiffTFinancial]

I lean under in that tribe game as well, but I also think Humber gets knocked around, so I like the ML a little better. Good luck on all your plays Biff!

yeah, Humber is my biggest concern. Masterson and pens both solid. makes Tribe ML a good hedge, gonna have to think about it since don't like playing side and total in same game. that said, Masterson is who my money is on.

[Love The Action]

Feelin' good about it too bro. Gonna kick my book while he is down 4 Units on the Dodger under , you and Biff Tee gave me the little extra confidence I needed to go big on it. Here's hoping you kill it tonight.

Nice call my man! You almost needed that extra run as the last two innings were kind of scary I'm sure.

Be careful...big night tonight...your book might just cut you off after we cash these tickets

Good luck!

[JA's Winners]

http://forum.sbrforum.com/baseball-h...all-picks.html check them out and let me know what you think...

[Love The Action]

http://forum.sbrforum.com/baseball-h...all-picks.html check them out and let me know what you think...

Looks pretty solid, but how come so many parlays? The books love that parlay action and will take your money more often than not. Stick with straight bets and a few low unit action parlays and the books will start hating you because you take all their money!

Nice calls in that LAD game...bol

[Redscot]

Been a good afternoon, and liking tonight's card a lot so **** it. Got me a Lotto ticket tonight: I am actually on Zona but if they lose hopefully my dollar and a dream hits .

5Parlay

965 AT Cleveland Indians
-1½ +140

8/18/2011 8:10:00 PM 967 AT Toronto Blue Jays
-1½ +155

8/18/2011 10:05:00 PM 954 AT Philadelphia Phillies
-1½ +150

8/18/2011 7:05:00 PM 956 AT Washington Nationals
-1½ +150

8/18/2011 7:05:00 PM 970 AT Los Angeles Angels
-1½ +165

8/18/2011 10:05:00 PM 100/10036 # 54046

[Love The Action]

Been a good afternoon, and liking tonight's card a lot so **** it. Got me a Lotto ticket tonight: I am actually on Zona but if they lose hopefully my dollar and a dream hits .

5Parlay

965 AT Cleveland Indians
-1½ +140

8/18/2011 8:10:00 PM 967 AT Toronto Blue Jays
-1½ +155

8/18/2011 10:05:00 PM 954 AT Philadelphia Phillies
-1½ +150

8/18/2011 7:05:00 PM 956 AT Washington Nationals
-1½ +150

8/18/2011 7:05:00 PM 970 AT Los Angeles Angels
-1½ +165

8/18/2011 10:05:00 PM 100/10036 # 54046

Should have played the Dbacks!

J/k....good luck!

[GoggsViggs]

With u guys on Yankees RL and tribe.

Also on steelers-3 and the under

[Love The Action]

With u guys on Yankees RL and tribe.

Also on steelers-3 and the under

[Love The Action]

So....any chance this AZ/Philly game gets postponed

[Redscot]

Was about to offer something encouraging regarding a bullpen battle then I query'd this:

http://www.fangraphs.com/teams.aspx?pos=all&lg=nl&stats=pit&type=1&season=2011&month=3&season1=2011

filter it for SIERA

Doh!

[Love The Action]

Was about to offer something encouraging regarding a bullpen battle then I query'd this:

http://www.fangraphs.com/teams.aspx?pos=all&lg=nl&stats=pit&type=1&season=2011&month=3&season1=2011

filter it for SIERA

Doh!

LOL, but that's only over the last 30 days...on the season Philly is still better but only by about .2. Plus, I would argue Putz is one of the hotter closers going right now. Down three though is not good. Still prefer the rainout

[Love The Action]

Humber getting knocked out Stewart having to pitched really hurts our Tribe play...

[Redscot]

Humber getting knocked out Stewart having to pitched really hurts our Tribe play...

Let's see what happens second time through the lineup.....

[Love The Action]

I better stop following today's games and start capping tomorrow before I get too pissed

[investing4us]

yanks looking good, back to back homers by swisher and jones. 6-2 yanks

[alamo]

How long more before they decide to abandon the Diamondbacks game ????

Is the bet void if they abandon ?

[investing4us]

Oh fudge they started the zona game.

[alamo]

Oh fudge they started the zona game.

[Love The Action]

MLB 8/19/11

Play #1

Mariners ML (-115) 1x (Locked)

Writeups to come...

[Redscot]

MLB 8/19/11

Play #1

Mariners ML (-115) 1x (Locked)

Writeups to come...

You the James Brown Of SBR my man. Might have to jump back and kiss yourself.
Nat's are in and a few in the balance. Tonight the Gods (variance) repay your devotion (number crunching). At least I hope so. You have been murdering the lines for the last month, yet can only ticket you for misdemeanor's. Obviously I am feeling no pain, wishing you a good finish to the night bro.

[alamo]

Cash the miracle under in Boston Boys ! 6 runs scored after 3 inns I had written it off but they only managed 1 in the next 6 !!! Happy Days !!!!

[Redscot]

Cash the miracle under in Boston Boys ! 6 runs scored after 3 inns I had written it off but they only managed 1 in the next 6 !!! Happy Days !!!!

[GoggsViggs]

group win on yanks and tribe! Love it