LTA's MLB Plays

[BigBoi]

Under Florida/SF? Under TB/NYY? Over CHI/ATL? Under LA/HOU? Under Cincy/SD?

[shortdog]

Bouce bck Lta..I know u will have a great day today

[slyone66]

we all have chitty days , we just move on. GL with your plays today LTA

[Love The Action]

MLB 8/14/11

Play #1

Cubs/Braves under (7.5)(+100) 1x (Locked)

I'm pissed I didn't get this at 8 last night but, there's nothing we can do about this now. Plus, it's never a bad thing to see a line drop where 70% of the public is on the over. There are quite a few angles at play here at that I like for the under. Garza has been dominate of late, which validates our high opinion of him throughout the season. He has been a victim of shabby defense and poor Cubs play in general. However, his advanced stats show him to be one of the better pitchers in the league and his value to the Cubs is huge with a 3.2 WAR. In addition, he is also having a career year in terms of K% over 23%, GB/FB over 1.5 and FIP, xFIP and SIERA all around 3.15. On the other side, Beachy has also been very good for a youngster. He has impressed with a K% over 26% which is great and FIP, xFIP, and tERA all in the mid to high 3's but a dominate SIERA at 3.12. The Cubs has never seen Beachy pitch, so Beach has the advantage in this matchup against the Cubs hot lineup. The ump has a huge strike rate over 64%, so that is good to see in support of the under here. As mentioned, the total opened at 8 and has subsequently dropped at all major outlets despite the majority of all bets on the over. I have this one set at 7, so we have a little value here which would have been much greater at a total of 8 (this would have been a 2x play if we could have gotten the early 8 number). Finally, with a 10mph wind blowing in from left field, I am going to roll with the under here for 1x. Good luck!

[crazymonkey]

MLB 8/14/11

Play #1

Cubs/Braves under (7.5)(+100) 1x (Locked)

I'm pissed I didn't get this at 8 last night but, there's nothing we can do about this now. Plus, it's never a bad thing to see a line drop where 70% of the public is on the over. There are quite a few angles at play here at that I like for the under. Garza has been dominate of late, which validates our high opinion of him throughout the season. He has been a victim of shabby defense and poor Cubs play in general. However, his advanced stats show him to be one of the better pitchers in the league and his value to the Cubs is huge with a 3.2 WAR. In addition, he is also having a career year in terms of K% over 23%, GB/FB over 1.5 and FIP, xFIP and SIERA all around 3.15. On the other side, Beachy has also been very good for a youngster. He has impressed with a K% over 26% which is great and FIP, xFIP, and tERA all in the mid to high 3's but a dominate SIERA at 3.12. The Cubs has never seen Beachy pitch, so Beach has the advantage in this matchup against the Cubs hot lineup. The ump has a huge strike rate over 64%, so that is good to see in support of the under here. As mentioned, the total opened at 8 and has subsequently dropped at all major outlets despite the majority of all bets on the over. I have this one set at 7, so we have a little value here which would have been much greater at a total of 8 (this would have been a 2x play if we could have gotten the early 8 number). Finally, with a 10mph wind blowing in from left field, I am going to roll with the under here for 1x. Good luck!

vegas insider has the public pounding the under with 75% on it

[Love The Action]

MLB 8/14/11

Play #1

Cubs/Braves under (7.5)(+100) 1x (Locked)

I'm pissed I didn't get this at 8 last night but, there's nothing we can do about this now. Plus, it's never a bad thing to see a line drop where 70% of the public is on the over. There are quite a few angles at play here at that I like for the under. Garza has been dominate of late, which validates our high opinion of him throughout the season. He has been a victim of shabby defense and poor Cubs play in general. However, his advanced stats show him to be one of the better pitchers in the league and his value to the Cubs is huge with a 3.2 WAR. In addition, he is also having a career year in terms of K% over 23%, GB/FB over 1.5 and FIP, xFIP and SIERA all around 3.15. On the other side, Beachy has also been very good for a youngster. He has impressed with a K% over 26% which is great and FIP, xFIP, and tERA all in the mid to high 3's but a dominate SIERA at 3.12. The Cubs has never seen Beachy pitch, so Beach has the advantage in this matchup against the Cubs hot lineup. The ump has a huge strike rate over 64%, so that is good to see in support of the under here. As mentioned, the total opened at 8 and has subsequently dropped at all major outlets despite the majority of all bets on the over. I have this one set at 7, so we have a little value here which would have been much greater at a total of 8 (this would have been a 2x play if we could have gotten the early 8 number). Finally, with a 10mph wind blowing in from left field, I am going to roll with the under here for 1x. Good luck!

Play #2

Tigers -1 RL (0.50x ML (-140); 0.50x -1.5 RL (+120))

We have a huge starting pitching mismatch with Fister going for the Tigers and Reyes going for the Orioles. The Tigers are a top 10 MLB team offensively against left handed starters and are also in the upper echelon of wins against lefties. Fister's 3.2 WAR is a +2.7 differential in favor of Fister. Fister also dominates Reyes by more than one point in FIP, xFIP, tERA and SIERA. With the better K%, GB/FB and WHIP, Fister and the Tigers have a big advantage in that department. With the Tigers advantage in SP and hitting today (although the Orioles have a solid history against Fister), I am going to roll with the Tigers even though this is one of the bigger public-backed plays. Good luck!

[BigDan]

Fading balty almost always means you be with the majority, i know the masses in general are not that bright but doesnt take a rocket scientist to continually bet against these clowns.

gl today

[Love The Action]

vegas insider has the public pounding the under with 75% on it

Vegasinsider only provides betting percentages from sportsbook.com. That does not represent a true sample of where the the best are coming from because those percentages are limited to one book. However, I will say that the betting percentages have come down since I made the play as they were in the high 60% low 70% and are now fluctuating at the high 50%'s according to SI last time I checked. I will also say that if you are looking to find a free service to use for betting percentages, I would recommend Sportspy as way more effective than Vegasinsider. Sportspy uses info from multiple books.

Regardless, the whole idea of fading the public is much less effective than it once was, say, five or more years ago. The "public" in general is better informed because the readily accessible information via the internet. The betting percentages is one of the last thing and least weighed factors I look at when making a play.

Good luck

[crazymonkey]

thanks for the info. BOL today

[slyone66]

gl with your plays LTA, lets get them today.

[CdeQ]

Bounce back day...

[shocktopme]

Vegasinsider only provides betting percentages from sportsbook.com. That does not represent a true sample of where the the best are coming from because those percentages are limited to one book. However, I will say that the betting percentages have come down since I made the play as they were in the high 60% low 70% and are now fluctuating at the high 50%'s according to SI last time I checked. I will also say that if you are looking to find a free service to use for betting percentages, I would recommend Sportspy as way more effective than Vegasinsider. Sportspy uses info from multiple books. Regardless, the whole idea of fading the public is much less effective than it once was, say, five or more years ago. The "public" in general is better informed because the readily accessible information via the internet. The betting percentages is one of the last thing and least weighed factors I look at when making a play. Good luck

Damn!!!LTA does his homework better than anyone here!!!!Gonna rebound today my friend.....Lets get some wins!!!!

[BennyFang]

Any merit to Dodgers/Astros un 7? Any thoughts appreciated.

[Love The Action]

Any merit to Dodgers/Astros un 7? Any thoughts appreciated.

I certainly lean that way, but have not gone in-depth on that game yet. Obviously, the concern is Lyles. I want to dig into the numbers and see if we can find any nuggets to support him here. The Dodgers knocked around Wandy last night (because of poor team defense), so they could easily hit Lyles. I would prefer to have this at 7.5, but it does not look as though we are going to get there as the juice has started to shift towards the under. The ump has no lean but a decent strike rate. I like it Mr. Fang, but I need to look at it more. Back later on that one.

Also looking at the Boston/Mariners over pretty hard, the KC/CWS under and maybe Texas ML.

Wish I would have played my lean on the Angels, as they jumped all over Cecil early. I was scared off by Cecil's recent success and the formidable lineup that Haren will face today. I guess we'll find out if holding off was the right call or not.

[BigDan]

i like Lyles, sure he is inconsistent but the kid has very good stuff and not exactly like lad are world beaters. Wandy been shit on the road were as some of Lyles better gms have came at Arlington and mil, like his chances to limit lad in CR today....already played the under 7....off for the day....GL LTA and friends

[Love The Action]

MLB 8/14/11

Play #1

Cubs/Braves under (7.5)(+100) 1x (Locked)

I'm pissed I didn't get this at 8 last night but, there's nothing we can do about this now. Plus, it's never a bad thing to see a line drop where 70% of the public is on the over. There are quite a few angles at play here at that I like for the under. Garza has been dominate of late, which validates our high opinion of him throughout the season. He has been a victim of shabby defense and poor Cubs play in general. However, his advanced stats show him to be one of the better pitchers in the league and his value to the Cubs is huge with a 3.2 WAR. In addition, he is also having a career year in terms of K% over 23%, GB/FB over 1.5 and FIP, xFIP and SIERA all around 3.15. On the other side, Beachy has also been very good for a youngster. He has impressed with a K% over 26% which is great and FIP, xFIP, and tERA all in the mid to high 3's but a dominate SIERA at 3.12. The Cubs has never seen Beachy pitch, so Beach has the advantage in this matchup against the Cubs hot lineup. The ump has a huge strike rate over 64%, so that is good to see in support of the under here. As mentioned, the total opened at 8 and has subsequently dropped at all major outlets despite the majority of all bets on the over. I have this one set at 7, so we have a little value here which would have been much greater at a total of 8 (this would have been a 2x play if we could have gotten the early 8 number). Finally, with a 10mph wind blowing in from left field, I am going to roll with the under here for 1x. Good luck!

Play #2

Tigers -1 RL (0.50x ML (-140); 0.50x -1.5 RL (+120))

We have a huge starting pitching mismatch with Fister going for the Tigers and Reyes going for the Orioles. The Tigers are a top 10 MLB team offensively against left handed starters and are also in the upper echelon of wins against lefties. Fister's 3.2 WAR is a +2.7 differential in favor of Fister. Fister also dominates Reyes by more than one point in FIP, xFIP, tERA and SIERA. With the better K%, GB/FB and WHIP, Fister and the Tigers have a big advantage in that department. With the Tigers advantage in SP and hitting today (although the Orioles have a solid history against Fister), I am going to roll with the Tigers even though this is one of the bigger public-backed plays. Good luck!

Play #3

Boston/Seattle over (9)(-105) 1x (Locked)

I wanted to hold off on this one as long as possible to see if Youk is playing for Boston or if anyone else is getting rested. However, one of my locals jumped to -115 on the over so I figured it best to lock it now. The Red Sox are top 3 in most offensive categories against lefties and I do not think much of Furbush at this point. I like Boston to score over 6 runs today. The question is whether Seattle can get 3 or more runs off Wakefield and I think they will. They are brutal offensively, but I trust they can get some runs off Wakefield. In addition, the Seattle bullpen is weak and especially as far as available guys for today. The ump is pretty neutral, although, I prefer a strike rate in the 62% percentile for overs and this guy is a bit over 63%. Nevertheless, I have to roll with the over here and I will do just that for 1x. Good luck!

[BennyFang]

Thanks guys....look forward to the analysis. BOL on the early games.

[JR007]

Good Luck today !!!...

[Love The Action]

MLB 8/14/11

Play #1

Cubs/Braves under (7.5)(+100) 1x (Locked)

I'm pissed I didn't get this at 8 last night but, there's nothing we can do about this now. Plus, it's never a bad thing to see a line drop where 70% of the public is on the over. There are quite a few angles at play here at that I like for the under. Garza has been dominate of late, which validates our high opinion of him throughout the season. He has been a victim of shabby defense and poor Cubs play in general. However, his advanced stats show him to be one of the better pitchers in the league and his value to the Cubs is huge with a 3.2 WAR. In addition, he is also having a career year in terms of K% over 23%, GB/FB over 1.5 and FIP, xFIP and SIERA all around 3.15. On the other side, Beachy has also been very good for a youngster. He has impressed with a K% over 26% which is great and FIP, xFIP, and tERA all in the mid to high 3's but a dominate SIERA at 3.12. The Cubs has never seen Beachy pitch, so Beach has the advantage in this matchup against the Cubs hot lineup. The ump has a huge strike rate over 64%, so that is good to see in support of the under here. As mentioned, the total opened at 8 and has subsequently dropped at all major outlets despite the majority of all bets on the over. I have this one set at 7, so we have a little value here which would have been much greater at a total of 8 (this would have been a 2x play if we could have gotten the early 8 number). Finally, with a 10mph wind blowing in from left field, I am going to roll with the under here for 1x. Good luck!

Play #2

Tigers -1 RL (0.50x ML (-140); 0.50x -1.5 RL (+120))

We have a huge starting pitching mismatch with Fister going for the Tigers and Reyes going for the Orioles. The Tigers are a top 10 MLB team offensively against left handed starters and are also in the upper echelon of wins against lefties. Fister's 3.2 WAR is a +2.7 differential in favor of Fister. Fister also dominates Reyes by more than one point in FIP, xFIP, tERA and SIERA. With the better K%, GB/FB and WHIP, Fister and the Tigers have a big advantage in that department. With the Tigers advantage in SP and hitting today (although the Orioles have a solid history against Fister), I am going to roll with the Tigers even though this is one of the bigger public-backed plays. Good luck!

Play #3

Boston/Seattle over (9)(-105) 1x (Locked)

I wanted to hold off on this one as long as possible to see if Youk is playing for Boston or if anyone else is getting rested. However, one of my locals jumped to -115 on the over so I figured it best to lock it now. The Red Sox are top 3 in most offensive categories against lefties and I do not think much of Furbush at this point. I like Boston to score over 6 runs today. The question is whether Seattle can get 3 or more runs off Wakefield and I think they will. They are brutal offensively, but I trust they can get some runs off Wakefield. In addition, the Seattle bullpen is weak and especially as far as available guys for today. The ump is pretty neutral, although, I prefer a strike rate in the 62% percentile for overs and this guy is a bit over 63%. Nevertheless, I have to roll with the over here and I will do just that for 1x. Good luck!

Play #4

Royals/White Sox under (8)(+100) 1x (Locked)

[ebbearsfb1]

******* tigers.. I've been trapped

[blumpkin]

bosox over 9 just went to +105 on bm

[Love The Action]

bosox over 9 just went to +105 on bm

Dropped back to 8.5 at most places...not a good sign but I'm still rolling with the over here.

We've had some early struggles with bloop singles in the Cubs game, Fister getting rocked by Markakis and poor defense by the Royals.

Perhaps hungover capping does not suit me

We'll see...you never what will happen and the gambling gods owe us some late inning wins after the three bullpen disasters we experienced this week on our bigger plays. I remain confident in the BoSox play and I have a fifth play coming up. Good luck bud...I hope we can make some money today.

[Love The Action]

MLB 8/14/11

Play #1

Cubs/Braves under (7.5)(+100) 1x (Locked)

I'm pissed I didn't get this at 8 last night but, there's nothing we can do about this now. Plus, it's never a bad thing to see a line drop where 70% of the public is on the over. There are quite a few angles at play here at that I like for the under. Garza has been dominate of late, which validates our high opinion of him throughout the season. He has been a victim of shabby defense and poor Cubs play in general. However, his advanced stats show him to be one of the better pitchers in the league and his value to the Cubs is huge with a 3.2 WAR. In addition, he is also having a career year in terms of K% over 23%, GB/FB over 1.5 and FIP, xFIP and SIERA all around 3.15. On the other side, Beachy has also been very good for a youngster. He has impressed with a K% over 26% which is great and FIP, xFIP, and tERA all in the mid to high 3's but a dominate SIERA at 3.12. The Cubs has never seen Beachy pitch, so Beach has the advantage in this matchup against the Cubs hot lineup. The ump has a huge strike rate over 64%, so that is good to see in support of the under here. As mentioned, the total opened at 8 and has subsequently dropped at all major outlets despite the majority of all bets on the over. I have this one set at 7, so we have a little value here which would have been much greater at a total of 8 (this would have been a 2x play if we could have gotten the early 8 number). Finally, with a 10mph wind blowing in from left field, I am going to roll with the under here for 1x. Good luck!

Play #2

Tigers -1 RL (0.50x ML (-140); 0.50x -1.5 RL (+120))

We have a huge starting pitching mismatch with Fister going for the Tigers and Reyes going for the Orioles. The Tigers are a top 10 MLB team offensively against left handed starters and are also in the upper echelon of wins against lefties. Fister's 3.2 WAR is a +2.7 differential in favor of Fister. Fister also dominates Reyes by more than one point in FIP, xFIP, tERA and SIERA. With the better K%, GB/FB and WHIP, Fister and the Tigers have a big advantage in that department. With the Tigers advantage in SP and hitting today (although the Orioles have a solid history against Fister), I am going to roll with the Tigers even though this is one of the bigger public-backed plays. Good luck!

Play #3

Boston/Seattle over (9)(-105) 1x (Locked)

I wanted to hold off on this one as long as possible to see if Youk is playing for Boston or if anyone else is getting rested. However, one of my locals jumped to -115 on the over so I figured it best to lock it now. The Red Sox are top 3 in most offensive categories against lefties and I do not think much of Furbush at this point. I like Boston to score over 6 runs today. The question is whether Seattle can get 3 or more runs off Wakefield and I think they will. They are brutal offensively, but I trust they can get some runs off Wakefield. In addition, the Seattle bullpen is weak and especially as far as available guys for today. The ump is pretty neutral, although, I prefer a strike rate in the 62% percentile for overs and this guy is a bit over 63%. Nevertheless, I have to roll with the over here and I will do just that for 1x. Good luck!

Play #4

Royals/White Sox under (8)(+100) 1x (Locked)

Play #5

Astros/Dodgers under (7)(-105) 1x (Locked)

In a rush as I'm looking at one more game as well. Kuroda has dominated the Dodgers in the past and has solid advanced numbers all year. Lyles has struggled, but by all accounts has solid stuff and has the magic word of "potential." By all accounts, this guy should be a stud but has to work on a lot of the same things many young pitchers struggle with (e.g. control, adjustments, developing another pitch, etc.). The Dodger as not an offensive powerhouse and I think Lyles could have a nice game. If he can give us a quality start today and limit the Astros can limit the Dodgers to 4 runs, we should cash this game under. The ump has no lean but a solid 63.3% strike rate. I expect both starting pitchers to perform well today and I'm rolling with the under for 1x.

[BiffTFinancial]

Play #5 Astros/Dodgers under (7)(-105) 1x (Locked) In a rush as I'm looking at one more game as well. Kuroda has dominated the Dodgers in the past and has solid advanced numbers all year. Lyles has struggled, but by all accounts has solid stuff and has the magic word of "potential." By all accounts, this guy should be a stud but has to work on a lot of the same things many young pitchers struggle with (e.g. control, adjustments, developing another pitch, etc.). The Dodger as not an offensive powerhouse and I think Lyles could have a nice game. If he can give us a quality start today and limit the Astros can limit the Dodgers to 4 runs, we should cash this game under. The ump has no lean but a solid 63.3% strike rate. I expect both starting pitchers to perform well today and I'm rolling with the under for 1x.

like it LTA, on it. BOL to you.

[Love The Action]

That's it for today...hopefully, we can salvage a small losing day and save a profitable week. Going to take a nap and sleep off this hangover. Good luck on everyone's plays.

[Love The Action]

ESPN Sunday Night Action Parlay (Not for records win or lose)

Cardinals ML (-150)/Over (8)(-120) 0.25x to win 0.53x

I usually roll with the Sunday night under trend, but we'll break that today. We've had a crap Saturday and Sunday which ended up costing us a small loss on the week. I like Jackson to win in a higher scoring game. GL

[Love The Action]

MLB Recap 8/13/11

0 - 4 = -3.75x

MLB Recap 8/14/11

0 - 3 - 2 = -3.25x

Disappointed in the Red Sox today. They can't get more than three runs off Furbush? Fister and the Tigers also disappointed today.

MLB Season 2011

340 - 305 = +31.5x

Tough weekend after a solid week. If it wasn't for two huge bullpen collapses by the Padres and one by the Royals earlier in the week, we would have been profitable by three units despite this weekend's results. As it is, we end up taking a loss just under one unit for the week after this crazy weekend. Good luck to those playing the Sunday night game and good luck to everyone next week. Time to start on Monday's card. The grind does not stop until the world series winner is decided.

[Love The Action]

MLB 8/15/11

Giants/Braves under (7)(-120) 1x (Locked)

Writeup to come...GL.

[pacocn]

Lta, back from camping, love that under it has already dropped
to 6.5

[Redscot]

Time to shake the cobwebs and get back to the grind. Looking forward to a good week LTA.

[Love The Action]

Time to shake the cobwebs and get back to the grind. Looking forward to a good week LTA.

What do you think of the Mets/Padres today? Play on the Padres or do the Mets get it done? I lean Padres, but after last week's bullpen meltdown which burned us, I have my doubts...

[pacocn]

Lta, I played the Mets the line says alot,
and I think Senor Dickey is going to like that
park in SD, We also know Pads can't hit at home.

[MrXYZ]

My book's got the Giants/Braves under 7.0 -135. Still worth taking?

[Redscot]

What do you think of the Mets/Padres today? Play on the Padres or do the Mets get it done? I lean Padres, but after last week's bullpen meltdown which burned us, I have my doubts...

Posted this elsewhere but figured worth posting it here. Talking in general regarding the Mets:

The Mets are a good team to fade the next month.

1) They have exceeded expectations up to this point, may be slightly overvalued
2) Their core are vets or everyday players that don't have anything to prove per se in the waning months of the season (Wright, Bay, Pagan to an extent). (I compare this in comparison to guys in contract years or other teams like Royals/Astros etc. who have young dudes coming up looking to make a mark, and now! These teams may suck but will play more care free and with a sense of urgency to make their mark. The Muts young dudes are not the cream of their crop, they are guys who could be good role players one day. Can't expect them to continue to carry the load.
3) The inevitable air going out of the balloon, when you realize that even your wildest imagination's of competing this year have finally died.
4) Collins has done a great job, but at this stage in the season instead of being inspiring could start to grate on players a bit who are distraught and not feeling rah-rah, especially vets.
5) The Staff has pitched over their heads, they will regress some imo. The pen is a shell of its former self.

Take it for what it's worth, I am a die hard Muts fan and they have over performed thus far, they could continue.

Obviously they will win some games, haven't looked into today's game yet but will post my thoughts when I do bro.

Haven't looked into K.C. Yanks today but my first feel is could be a tough spot for our boy Paulino. Yanks game got called nice and early yesterday, they didn't have to sit around in the clubhouse, got some good rest on a travel day. Have you capped that one yet?

[Love The Action]

Posted this elsewhere but figured worth posting it here. Talking in general regarding the Mets:

The Mets are a good team to fade the next month.

1) They have exceeded expectations up to this point, may be slightly overvalued
2) Their core are vets or everyday players that don't have anything to prove per se in the waning months of the season (Wright, Bay, Pagan to an extent). (I compare this in comparison to guys in contract years or other teams like Royals/Astros etc. who have young dudes coming up looking to make a mark, and now! These teams may suck but will play more care free and with a sense of urgency to make their mark. The Muts young dudes are not the cream of their crop, they are guys who could be good role players one day. Can't expect them to continue to carry the load.
3) The inevitable air going out of the balloon, when you realize that even your wildest imagination's of competing this year have finally died.
4) Collins has done a great job, but at this stage in the season instead of being inspiring could start to grate on players a bit who are distraught and not feeling rah-rah, especially vets.
5) The Staff has pitched over their heads, they will regress some imo. The pen is a shell of its former self.

Take it for what it's worth, I am a die hard Muts fan and they have over performed thus far, they could continue.

Obviously they will win some games, haven't looked into today's game yet but will post my thoughts when I do bro.

Haven't looked into K.C. Yanks today but my first feel is could be a tough spot for our boy Paulino. Yanks game got called nice and early yesterday, they didn't have to sit around in the clubhouse, got some good rest on a travel day. Have you capped that one yet?

Thanks for the Mets analysis...i will look that over more closely.

No play in KC. You know I'm a Paulino fan, but his splits against lefties are really bad. I can't back him against those lefty bombers. I wanted the under too until they switched from Nova to AJ. No play all the way around in that one.

At work now, but I might have a few more later. Kind of a crappy card today though...