LTA's MLB Plays

**Love The Action** · 10-08-11, 05:59 PM

Originally posted by scaredmoney

Do you have evidence on the wind blowing in's effect at arlington? not all winds are created equal in all ballparks. In San Francisco, the wind blows out at 20+ every game. I think you are overestimating the wind here, I've seen plenty of 20+ mph blowing in winds this year from detroit to florida and they were all priced normally which implied the wind was a near non factor

I believe there was an article written which stated that a SE wind at Arlington essentially mitigates any wind tunnel effect that you might otherwise find. Google it...I don't have time right now but will look later if I remember.

However, that's not applicable to my model. I assign a weight for weather dependent variables based upon certain benchmarks. A 12mph wind is one of those benchmarks, regardless of the ballpark or location. Your point is well taken that wind effects certain ballparks differently, however, at this point I just don't have time to research that specific effect upon each ballpark and I simply choose to rely on physics which has shown that a 12mph wind slows the trajectory of a baseball under general conditions.

Good luck tonight...gotta hit dinner soon and finish off my NCAAF card.

What are the odds you stick around under this new handle through tomorrow night's games...I'm putting up -1000

**scaredmoney** · 10-08-11, 06:04 PM

Originally posted by Love The Action

I believe there was an article written which stated that a SE wind at Arlington essentially mitigates any wind tunnel effect that you might otherwise find. Google it...I don't have time right now but will look later if I remember.

That's true from what I understand the wind tunnel is when it blows in from left.

However, that's not applicable to my model. I assign a weight for weather dependent variables based upon certain benchmarks. A 12mph wind is one of those benchmarks, regardless of the ballpark or location. Your point is well taken that wind effects certain ballparks differently, however, at this point I just don't have time to research that specific effect upon each ballpark and I simply choose to rely on physics which has shown that a 12mph wind slows the trajectory of a baseball under general conditions.

Your blanket application of "physics" is faulty. The physics of a 10 mph wind in wrigley blowing has more affect than a 30 mph wind blowing out in any other park. Do you just not care that wind is almost never reflected in totals outside of arlington and wrigley?

What are the odds you stick around under this new handle through tomorrow night's games...I'm putting up -1000

0%

**Krazymojo** · 10-08-11, 06:23 PM

any pick on whos gonna win?

**scaredmoney** · 10-08-11, 06:57 PM

Rain is coming for sure by the 4th....That means Ogando for the Rangers and Phil Coke for the Tigers. think about that

**Redscot** · 10-08-11, 07:05 PM

Originally posted by scaredmoney

Rain is coming for sure by the 4th....That means Ogando for the Rangers and Phil Coke for the Tigers. think about that

First compelling argument for me either way.......

**Donnie Brasco** · 10-08-11, 07:17 PM

Ur boy cj got out of that one!

**rwd201** · 10-08-11, 08:05 PM

Rain should stay clear of the park

**rwd201** · 10-08-11, 08:41 PM

here comes the rain

**815Sox** · 10-08-11, 08:52 PM

I am just going to hedge this at 5dimes through a live bet. I did pretty dang good in hockey today, so better safe than sorry. BOL everyone for whatever you choose to do.

**Donnie Brasco** · 10-08-11, 10:35 PM

Sox what u doing on the live play?

**mt675826** · 10-09-11, 12:07 AM

YES! All those rain delays did was cause me to dip into my Sunday beers. Stayed up for this nail biter and glad I did, caught the side and the under.

**815Sox** · 10-09-11, 12:11 AM

Originally posted by Donnie Brasco

Sox what u doing on the live play?

I just bet the over at 7.5. Obviously wish I would have stayed with it, but rather safe than sorry. I went 4-1 in hockey today, so I didn't want to risk that (I put 2 units on the under on this game)

**mt675826** · 10-09-11, 12:27 AM

Originally posted by 815Sox

I just bet the over at 7.5. Obviously wish I would have stayed with it, but rather safe than sorry. I went 4-1 in hockey today, so I didn't want to risk that (I put 2 units on the under on this game)

Nice! I was really, really tempted to do the same but refrained. I also just hit a 4 event NHL parlay that I stayed up for, the Pens/Flames over, Coyetes/Sharks over, Pens ML and Sharks ML. That and the two MLB bets were all I did, 6/6 on the night. Happy (Canadian) thanksgiving!

**Redscot** · 10-09-11, 06:17 AM

Originally posted by mt675826

Nice! I was really, really tempted to do the same but refrained. I also just hit a 4 event NHL parlay that I stayed up for, the Pens/Flames over, Coyetes/Sharks over, Pens ML and Sharks ML. That and the two MLB bets were all I did, 6/6 on the night. Happy (Canadian) thanksgiving!

Congrats! Nice night.

**Redscot** · 10-09-11, 06:18 AM

Originally posted by 815Sox

I just bet the over at 7.5. Obviously wish I would have stayed with it, but rather safe than sorry. I went 4-1 in hockey today, so I didn't want to risk that (I put 2 units on the under on this game)

Nice night in Hockey, those your picks or are you tailing?

**Redscot** · 10-09-11, 06:19 AM

Feel fortunate with that under, under the circumstances

. Nice call again LTA, let's keep on rollin' today my man

**Trivial** · 10-09-11, 06:25 AM

Damn. Betwen preparing for Thanksgiving and Yom Kupur I missed this play completely. Oh well. For those celebrating, Happy Thanksgiving. Also missed all the ncaaf plays too that were posted yesterday. Take care and lets cash again today. Waiting for todays plays.

**Love The Action** · 10-09-11, 06:41 AM

I had no idea Canada celebrated Thanksgiving, much less in October! Happy Canadian Thanksgiving to all of my Canadian brothers out there! As an American, I know that you guys generally have our back when it comes to serious political issues and America does the same for you. So for that, I say

**Love The Action** · 10-09-11, 06:42 AM

Originally posted by mt675826

YES! All those rain delays did was cause me to dip into my Sunday beers. Stayed up for this nail biter and glad I did, caught the side and the under.

**Love The Action** · 10-09-11, 06:42 AM

Originally posted by 815Sox

I just bet the over at 7.5. Obviously wish I would have stayed with it, but rather safe than sorry. I went 4-1 in hockey today, so I didn't want to risk that (I put 2 units on the under on this game)

Nice night...

**Love The Action** · 10-09-11, 06:43 AM

Originally posted by Redscot

Feel fortunate with that under, under the circumstances

. Nice call again LTA, let's keep on rollin' today my man

**Love The Action** · 10-09-11, 06:50 AM

MLB Final Numbers for Regular Season 2011

418 - 378 = +38.03x

MLB 2011 Playoff Recap 10/8/11

1 - 0 = +1x

They scored five runs after six innings and no runs in the seventh, eighth or ninth with multiple rain delays. We got a bit of luck, but we also beat the closer by five cents so it was a good play nonetheless. Besides, after losing out on over 37x in profit to really bad late inning beats during the last three months of the regular season, we deserved this one.

MLB 2011 Playoffs

10 - 5 = +5.332x

Good luck on Sunday!

**Trivial** · 10-09-11, 06:52 AM

Originally posted by Love The Action

I had no idea Canada celebrated Thanksgiving, much less in October! Happy Canadian Thanksgiving to all of my Canadian brothers out there! As an American, I know that you guys generally have our back when it comes to serious political issues and America does the same for you. So for that, I say

Thank you my brother. Our two countries are definitely the best of friends.

**Trivial** · 10-09-11, 08:13 AM

Thanksgiving in Canada is always the second Monday in October.

**Trivial** · 10-09-11, 08:20 AM

Lines are now out for today. Looks like the overs are juiced again today.

**Donnie Brasco** · 10-09-11, 08:35 AM

Originally posted by 815Sox

I just bet the over at 7.5. Obviously wish I would have stayed with it, but rather safe than sorry. I went 4-1 in hockey today, so I didn't want to risk that (I put 2 units on the under on this game)

Hey sox u have a hockey thread or u follow someone?

**Love The Action** · 10-09-11, 08:56 AM

MLB 2011 Playoffs 10/9/11

Play #1

Cardinals/Brewers under (7.5)(+100) 1.5x (Locked)

Here's another one that you should probably get on now (if you like it) before the under starts getting juiced. I was able to get this one at +100 which is currently available at 5D, while most other outlets are at -105. I expect this one closes at -110 on the under at Pinny/5d and probably -115 at most other outlets. Most bets will be on the over -- over 75% as I type -- because of the strength of these offenses. However, both pitchers have outstanding advanced stats and have found some success against these lineups. Both pitchers have a WAR score over 3.5; Greinke has a FIP, xFIP, tERA and SIERA under 3, with Garcia in the 3.3 range; Greinke has a whopping K% over 28% while Garcia is at 19% showing us that both can get strikeouts; both guys can also get groundball outs with GB/FB scores as high as 1.92 by Garcia and 1.54 by Greinke; plus, both guys performed well despite relatively unlucky BABIPs around .320 and low LOB% under 70%. Most importantly, down the stretch run in September/October, both pitchers posted xFIP scores under 2.86 which is very impressive and proved their ability to step up in crunch time. Against these lineups, both pitchers have found mixed success but success nonetheless. Greinke has fared well against Pujols and most other Cardinals, but struggled a bit with Berkman and Holliday. On the other side, Garcia has fared well against most Brewers, especially Braun and Fielder, but struggled a bit against Bettencourt, Hart and McGehee. In this game, however, we have two strong bullpens that are rested and ready to go if either starter gets into trouble. Remember, both teams have guys such as Westbrook and Narveson to step into this one and help out if required similar to how Ogando and Porcello helped out our under yesterday. With this being the post-season and a national league game, both managers will be looking to play small ball and advance runners with bunts and situational hitting. This strategy generally lends itself to the under because, even though it is usually successful in scoring one run, it can also end up stopping big scoring innings. The ump is Darling who is long time under guy with a strike rate over 63%, so he should only help this play. It's time for Greinke to step up and perform the way he is capable of performing after struggling against the D-backs in his last start and I think he gets it done today. Even though Garcia performed well in his playoff start, there is a lot riding on this game and he needs to prove his ability to be a big game pitcher. I expect both guys to be ultra-prepared and ready to go today in what both understand is pivotal game in this series. The game will be in the dome at Milwaukee, where even if the roof is open we will have wind blowing in from the SE, or directly in from centerfield, at about 8 mph by gametime. Based on the start time, we should have some shadow issues through the roofs glass panneling right around the middle of the game which should also help this play. I have this game at 6.5, which is a full run of variance between my model and the posted line and I'm going to roll with the under for 1.5x. Good luck.

**Donnie Brasco** · 10-09-11, 09:03 AM

I love it when u talk bases!

**Trivial** · 10-09-11, 09:17 AM

I agree with Donnie. I love this play. I am highly debating whether to pay the juice and go to under 8. I know it isn't the exact play, but to get it to under 8 for -115 doesn't seem like that bad of an idea to me.

**815Sox** · 10-09-11, 09:22 AM

Originally posted by Redscot

Nice night in Hockey, those your picks or are you tailing?

A little of both, more so mine... the dogs have been way underrated the first two days in the NHL. If you are looking for someone to tail I would recommend DG, but I would give a few days to right himself.

LTA - Thanks for the play, I was eyeing that under last night. Always good to be on the same wavelength with LTA.

**Adm. Cowpollock** · 10-09-11, 09:28 AM

Great analysis LTA. Any perspective on if or how Greinke will be affected by all the media attention over his calling Carpenter a "phony?" Those (dumb) remarks have caused a stir and I've gotta wonder if it's on Greinke's mind when he takes the mound. This is a guy with an anxiety disorder, of course...

Congrats on the under yesterday, spot on ... but man, there sure is a lack of big-time clutch hitting in many of these postseason games. Or is it great pitching...? LOL

**815Sox** · 10-09-11, 09:28 AM

Originally posted by mt675826

Nice! I was really, really tempted to do the same but refrained. I also just hit a 4 event NHL parlay that I stayed up for, the Pens/Flames over, Coyetes/Sharks over, Pens ML and Sharks ML. That and the two MLB bets were all I did, 6/6 on the night. Happy (Canadian) thanksgiving!

Thank You. I am near Chicago, so its not thanksgiving for me yet, but I have to say I love Canada. Actually, I would probably move up there (at least Toronto or Vancouver), I loved both of those places when I visited.

**815Sox** · 10-09-11, 09:31 AM

Originally posted by Adm. Cowpollock

Great analysis LTA. Any perspective on if or how Greinke will be affected by all the media attention over his calling Carpenter a "phony?" Those (dumb) remarks have caused a stir and I've gotta wonder if it's on Greinke's mind when he takes the mound. This is a guy with an anxiety disorder, of course...

I know when he was still with the Royals they had him on medication and the anxiety/depression stuff was pretty under control. I am assuming the Brewers are doing the same thing. From what I understand, its more common for the South American and Caribbean guys to get depressed and be put on meds due to homesickness. Being homesick sucks, I get it pretty bad myself, so I could only image what its like to be homesick and has to perform in a high stress market everyday.

**Trivial** · 10-09-11, 09:31 AM

815 : Where in chi-land? I am from the Toronto area, but lived in Naperville, IL for 4 years doing consulting. I am back up north now.

**Love The Action** · 10-09-11, 09:37 AM

Originally posted by Adm. Cowpollock

Great analysis LTA. Any perspective on if or how Greinke will be affected by all the media attention over his calling Carpenter a "phony?" Those (dumb) remarks have caused a stir and I've gotta wonder if it's on Greinke's mind when he takes the mound. This is a guy with an anxiety disorder, of course...

Congrats on the under yesterday, spot on ... but man, there sure is a lack of big-time clutch hitting in many of these postseason games. Or is it great pitching...? LOL

I can say with almost certainty that the very last thing in the world a top competitive athlete such as Greinke would be thinking about would be whether fans or press are mad at him for some remarks he made. This guy is going to be studying scouting reports and thinking about how to attack hitters on the mound. Truthfully, I had to look up the comments you are referencing, but it means absolutely nothing. That's the sort of stuff that the press builds up so they have something to write about. However, that means nothing to the players on the field while they are playing. Plus, this isn't football where bulletin board material may have a small impact on the field. Baseball is about individual matchups with guys going 100% on each at bat, pitch or play. Do you really think that, while Greinke is about to pitch against Pujols, that he is thinking "oh I wonder if everyone is still mad about what I said?" I would say that is doubtful. Also, I would say that the whole social anxiety thing is way overblown and I would not put much credence in that angle.