LTA's MLB Plays

[mt675826]

Thank You. I am near Chicago, so its not thanksgiving for me yet, but I have to say I love Canada. Actually, I would probably move up there (at least Toronto or Vancouver), I loved both of those places when I visited.

Canada is an overall pretty good place, I'm on the east coast though (NS) and it sucks, high taxes, few jobs, and no pro sports whatsoever - no market... People are great though. We have a QMJHL team, get the occasional pre season games for NHL/CFL but that's it. Decent (at best) college/university scene. Lots of dumb hippies and blind US bashing around here but I'm not one that dislikes the US. I love America and would move there in a heartbeat.

Again I'm going to follow and go on the Brewers under. Last time I was on the fence and always avoided their home games for unders but it worked out. Hoping for the same. GL.

[Adm. Cowpollock]

I can say with almost certainty that the very last thing in the world a top competitive athlete such as Greinke would be thinking about would be whether fans or press are mad at him for some remarks he made. This guy is going to be studying scouting reports and thinking about how to attack hitters on the mound. Truthfully, I had to look up the comments you are referencing, but it means absolutely nothing. That's the sort of stuff that the press builds up so they have something to write about. However, that means nothing to the players on the field while they are playing. Plus, this isn't football where bulletin board material may have a small impact on the field. Baseball is about individual matchups with guys going 100% on each at bat, pitch or play. Do you really think that, while Greinke is about to pitch against Pujols, that he is thinking "oh I wonder if everyone is still mad about what I said?" I would say that is doubtful. Also, I would say that the whole social anxiety thing is way overblown and I would not put much credence in that angle.

Hmmmm. I'm thinking it could be a wild card. You can bet Cards fans will be yelling, even chanting, "phony" when Greinke's on the mound. It was a pretty antagonistic remark that the press and Cardinals fans have seized on, especially after Carp's shutout gem. From what I've read, Greinke is a very emotionally and mentally sensitive guy. He's customarily quiet ... "awkward," Braun called him the other day ... and his "phony" comment and other remarks about Carpenter were completely out of character.

This is a guy who was on the DL for anxiety disorder in 2006 and out of baseball for like six months because of his affliction. He battled a lot of self-doubt. So when fans are yelling or chanting "phony," does the word get stuck in his head, does he start wondering if he's a phony? Given his apparently sensitive mentality, does it affect him?

I have no idea. Just thinking out loud. But I can't dismiss it as irrelevant and non-factor, though it may turn out to be. As Yogi Berra famously said, "90 percent of the game is half-mental." LOL. Thanks & GLTA.

[Redscot]

Hmmmm. I'm thinking it could be a wild card. You can bet Cards fans will be yelling, even chanting, "phony" when Greinke's on the mound. It was a pretty antagonistic remark that the press and Cardinals fan have seized on, especially after Carp's shutout gem. From what I've read, Greinke is a very emotionally and mentally sensitive guy. He's customarily quiet, and his "phony" comment and other remarks about Carpenter were completely out of character.

This is a guy who was on the DL for anxiety disorder in 2006 and out of baseball for like six months because of his affliction. He battled a lot of self-doubt. So when fans are yellilng or chanting "phony," does the word get stuck in his head, does he start wondering if he's a phony? Given his apparently sensitive mentality, does it affect him?

I have no idea. Just thinking out loud. But I can't dismiss it as irrelevant and non-factor, though it may turn out to be. As Yogi Berra famously said, "90 percent of the game is half-mental." LOL. Thanks & GLTA.

Great Avatar my man, Red was a classic!

As per the emotional issues, you are right about Greinke,it is well documented how he struggled with his social disorder. One thing I will say from my experience, these demons most often show up in the down time of players. For the most part these guys are most at home when they are playing the game that they have had a lifetime of success in getting to the highest level of their profession. It's when the adrenaline wears off and the other aspects of the game kick in (handling press/fans/downtime/etc.) that they are more susceptible to self doubt/depression etc. Not saying it doesn't happen.........but I do agree with LTA that it is often blown out of proportion (like everything else) by the media.

[MasterEOD]

LTA,
I'm in for the long haul with you...can't argue your commitment and attention to the small details. All the best....

[Blackroc78]

MLB 2011 Playoffs 10/9/11

Play #1

Cardinals/Brewers under (7.5)(+100) 1.5x (Locked)

Here's another one that you should probably get on now (if you like it) before the under starts getting juiced. I was able to get this one at +100 which is currently available at 5D, while most other outlets are at -105. I expect this one closes at -110 on the under at Pinny/5d and probably -115 at most other outlets. Most bets will be on the over -- over 75% as I type -- because of the strength of these offenses. However, both pitchers have outstanding advanced stats and have found some success against these lineups. Both pitchers have a WAR score over 3.5; Greinke has a FIP, xFIP, tERA and SIERA under 3, with Garcia in the 3.3 range; Greinke has a whopping K% over 28% while Garcia is at 19% showing us that both can get strikeouts; both guys can also get groundball outs with GB/FB scores as high as 1.92 by Garcia and 1.54 by Greinke; plus, both guys performed well despite relatively unlucky BABIPs around .320 and low LOB% under 70%. Most importantly, down the stretch run in September/October, both pitchers posted xFIP scores under 2.86 which is very impressive and proved their ability to step up in crunch time. Against these lineups, both pitchers have found mixed success but success nonetheless. Greinke has fared well against Pujols and most other Cardinals, but struggled a bit with Berkman and Holliday. On the other side, Garcia has fared well against most Brewers, especially Braun and Fielder, but struggled a bit against Bettencourt, Hart and McGehee. In this game, however, we have two strong bullpens that are rested and ready to go if either starter gets into trouble. Remember, both teams have guys such as Westbrook and Narveson to step into this one and help out if required similar to how Ogando and Porcello helped out our under yesterday. With this being the post-season and a national league game, both managers will be looking to play small ball and advance runners with bunts and situational hitting. This strategy generally lends itself to the under because, even though it is usually successful in scoring one run, it can also end up stopping big scoring innings. The ump is Darling who is long time under guy with a strike rate over 63%, so he should only help this play. It's time for Greinke to step up and perform the way he is capable of performing after struggling against the D-backs in his last start and I think he gets it done today. Even though Garcia performed well in his playoff start, there is a lot riding on this game and he needs to prove his ability to be a big game pitcher. I expect both guys to be ultra-prepared and ready to go today in what both understand is pivotal game in this series. The game will be in the dome at Milwaukee, where even if the roof is open we will have wind blowing in from the SE, or directly in from centerfield, at about 8 mph by gametime. Based on the start time, we should have some shadow issues through the roofs glass panneling right around the middle of the game which should also help this play. I have this game at 6.5, which is a full run of variance between my model and the posted line and I'm going to roll with the under for 1.5x. Good luck.

[Love The Action]

Hmmmm. I'm thinking it could be a wild card. You can bet Cards fans will be yelling, even chanting, "phony" when Greinke's on the mound. It was a pretty antagonistic remark that the press and Cardinals fans have seized on, especially after Carp's shutout gem. From what I've read, Greinke is a very emotionally and mentally sensitive guy. He's customarily quiet ... "awkward," Braun called him the other day ... and his "phony" comment and other remarks about Carpenter were completely out of character.

This is a guy who was on the DL for anxiety disorder in 2006 and out of baseball for like six months because of his affliction. He battled a lot of self-doubt. So when fans are yelling or chanting "phony," does the word get stuck in his head, does he start wondering if he's a phony? Given his apparently sensitive mentality, does it affect him?

I have no idea. Just thinking out loud. But I can't dismiss it as irrelevant and non-factor, though it may turn out to be. As Yogi Berra famously said, "90 percent of the game is half-mental." LOL. Thanks & GLTA.

It's a professional job's athlete to block all that stuff out. What's the difference from the fans yelling "phony" at Greinke like they might today from when fans have yelled "you suck" or something that makes fun of his anxiety or whatever like they have for his whole career?

Professional athletes get stuff yelled at them all game at every game, from when they were in college/minors all the way through the pros. When the they get to the majors, they should know how to block it out. Greinke's numbers are very, very solid...he earned those numbers with people yelling things at him all year and all of his career, so why would that be different today? Plus, they are playing in Milwaukee, so there will be more people supporting Greinke than yelling "phony" at him.

If anything, I think Greinke can use all that stuff as motivation. I don't know about you, but if I made a comment like that, it is because I have confidence in myself to perform at a high level and would cherish the opportunity to prove myself. Think about it, if Greinke has all these anxiety problems and hates having the attention on himself, why would he intentionally bring that attention on himself by making those comments? He would only do that if he had the confidence that he could back up his talk and to prove those anxiety issues are over. Now that I think about it, I think those comments only add to this play. I think those comments show Greinke is confident in himself and that his anxiety is not an issue.

See how I turned that "angle" around? My point is that motivational type angles in baseball really should not be used too heavily in your capping as they do not have as much precedence like in other sports such as football. Again, I'm not disrespecting you at all...I just think that angle has no impact on today's game.

In addition, I know all about Greinke's anxiety issues. However, he's dealt with it and that stuff gets overblown. If anything, he can take a xanax or something and get his ass out there.

[Trivial]

LTA : Are you coming back later today with a play on game #2, or just sticking with the Brewers game. Will come back later to check it out. Just wanting to make sure I don't miss another. Thanks again for everything.

[Adm. Cowpollock]

It's a professional job's athlete to block all that stuff out. What's the difference from the fans yelling "phony" at Greinke like they might today from when fans have yelled "you suck" or something that makes fun of his anxiety or whatever like they have for his whole career?

Professional athletes get stuff yelled at them all game at every game, from when they were in college/minors all the way through the pros. When the they get to the majors, they should know how to block it out. Greinke's numbers are very, very solid...he earned those numbers with people yelling things at him all year and all of his career, so why would that be different today? Plus, they are playing in Milwaukee, so there will be more people supporting Greinke than yelling "phony" at him.

If anything, I think Greinke can use all that stuff as motivation. I don't know about you, but if I made a comment like that, it is because I have confidence in myself to perform at a high level and would cherish the opportunity to prove myself. Think about it, if Greinke has all these anxiety problems and hates having the attention on himself, why would he intentionally bring that attention on himself by making those comments? He would only do that if he had the confidence that he could back up his talk and to prove those anxiety issues are over. Now that I think about it, I think those comments only add to this play. I think those comments show Greinke is confident in himself and that his anxiety is not an issue.

See how I turned that "angle" around? My point is that motivational type angles in baseball really should not be used too heavily in your capping as they do not have as much precedence like in other sports such as football. Again, I'm not disrespecting you at all...I just think that angle has no impact on today's game.

In addition, I know all about Greinke's anxiety issues. However, he's dealt with it and that stuff gets overblown. If anything, he can take a xanax or something and get his ass out there.

Probably right, LTA. It does strike me as peculiar circumstances, though. I've got StL at +3.5 ... not because of the "phony" thing, but rather because of Greinke's 3.00 1.42 .275 September and his last outing vs. Arizona. (Short rest, I know, but...). Having owned him in fantasy ball the last two years and watched his ups and downs, Greinke's the sort of pitcher who's gotta prove to me he can twirl on the big bright postseason stage. Loving that StL momentum too. Good luck!

[Love The Action]

Probably right, LTA. It does strike me as peculiar circumstances, though. I've got StL at +3.5 ... not because of the "phony" thing, but rather because of Greinke's 3.00 1.42 .275 September and his last outing vs. Arizona. (Short rest, I know, but...). Having owned him in fantasy ball the last two years and watched his ups and downs, Greinke's the sort of pitcher who's gotta prove to me he can twirl on the big bright postseason stage. Loving that StL momentum too. Good luck!

Good luck buddy...

[Love The Action]

LTA : Are you coming back later today with a play on game #2, or just sticking with the Brewers game. Will come back later to check it out. Just wanting to make sure I don't miss another. Thanks again for everything.

Might have another play....

[Donnie Brasco]

I should grabbed greinke at -140, back up to 145, think the brewers take the home opener.

[Donnie Brasco]

Just like u said, the under is now -105

[Trivial]

Just saw the same. Under 8 now -125

[Trivial]

Thanks LTA

[Love The Action]

Just saw the same. Under 8 now -125

Where..on 5D?

That's the same "price" as 7.5 (+100). You are basically buying the half run. I don't think you need it in this game, but it's never a bad idea to have the protection of the push.

This is a similar situation to when we had the Carpenter/Halladay matchup at 7 (-125) and some outlets had 6.5 (+100). I wanted to pay the juice in that instance, because it was a bigger play and because I wanted the protection of the push from a final score that ends on the key total of 7. In this case, I probably would not buy that protection because we cash a game that ends in 7. It's you're call. Good luck.

[Trivial]

Thanks LTA. Ya, just wanted the added protection as you say for a push. My friend who is in Vegas got it for me.

[Donnie Brasco]

Alcs game postponed

[Love The Action]

Alcs game postponed

I heard...I think that helps Detroit more than Texas because this gives some of their tired bullpen a rest and creates more flexibility options for Verlander. Assuming that he performs better...

[Redscot]

Alcs game postponed

That's a break for Detroit, gets their pitching back in line.

[Trivial]

I guess no pick now. :-)

[815Sox]

815 : Where in chi-land? I am from the Toronto area, but lived in Naperville, IL for 4 years doing consulting. I am back up north now.

I actually live in Rockford, IL 815 is our area code. Things are.. well they are terrible here. We have terrible unemployment, lots of crime and lots of greedy politicians who want to try to close every service available to people and stealing kids education away from them. They are about to close our last mental health facility, which will put people who are sick and unable to care for themselves out onto the street without treatment and medication. Our school system is one of the top 10 worst in the nation and we were recently ranked the 10th most dangerous place to live in Forbes. Naperville is a nicer place to live, they have great schools out there.

I am very very lucky as I was born into a very good family. Living here and seeing people struggling to survive makes you very grateful for what you have. I was a social worker for a few years so I have seen how bad it gets for some people.

Times are tough everywhere though. Thankfully we have hobbies and sports that can help take our minds off of it. As bad as it is here, there are places much worse. I am really hoping for a Midwest World Series (Crew vs Tigers).

I heard...I think that helps Detroit more than Texas because this gives some of their tired bullpen a rest and creates more flexibility options for Verlander. Assuming that he performs better...

I think it will help Detroit and I do not expect Verlander to struggle like that again. I have seen him pitch quite a few times and watched him develop due to him being in the same conference as my Sox. The Sox only beat him once this year and were competitive one or two more times thanks to Konerko's ability to crush fastballs. When Verlander first came up you could tell that he had to be a chance to be great, especially as he became more familiar with the league. Two or three years ago, he was able to beat almost every team except for the Sox and the Twins, probably because of familiarity. Once he started beating those two you knew it was really time for him to shine. His stuff had become that good, even if you knew what he was going to do you couldn't get to him.

[Donnie Brasco]

Our under is taking a beating i see

[815Sox]

Not the start we wanted, but I think they will settle down and lock in.

[Donnie Brasco]

Hey sox u got any hockey plays today?

[815Sox]

I am playing Winnipeg Jets (1st 60 min) -½ +134* vs Montreal Canadiens for a small play. Lots of people are liking the Jets, so who knows how that will go. Its either a good or bad sign.

[Trivial]

815 : ya. I have been through Rockford and unfortunately, I agree with your assessment but glad you are okay. Unfortunately most of my friends right now in Naperville/Aurora are unemployed right now. I know. I feel very fortunate to have moved back to Toronto before things got bad. Glad to hear you are well.

[Trivial]

Lets hope the score was jitters. Garcia was rocky.

[Trivial]

Oh oh

[Love The Action]

MLB Final Numbers for Regular Season 2011

418 - 378 = +38.03x

MLB 2011 Playoff Recap 10/9/11

0 - 1 = -1.5x

Pinny closed at -109, only once cent off my prediction of -110, so I still think this was a solid play just bad result. Garcia had no command and Greinke just gave up too many long balls. Nothing you can do but tip your hat to over backers and move on.

MLB 2011 Playoffs

10 - 6 = +3.832x

Before today, we cashed seven straight plays in baseball since last Tuesday which got us back in the black for the playoffs. Can't complain about that. New week starts tomorrow and let's try to start another streak. Good luck.

[815Sox]

We will get em tomorrow. Cannot win them all. Thanks for the play and writeup as always.

[Love The Action]

Wow...great Breaking Bad episode...that guy in my avatar is a bad ass!

[Krazymojo]

BB was so sick tonight amazing season finale and what can you say about Walter doing that to the kid to get Jesse on his side lol

[Love The Action]

BB was so sick tonight amazing season finale and what can you say about Walter doing that to the kid to get Jesse on his side lol

I know, right....he is the true kingping...not Gus...Mr. White is fuking ruthless!

I wonder where they are going go with the final 16 episodes. They said there is going to one final season consisting of 16 episodes that they are going to split into two parts.

I guess Walt and Jessie start cooking again...what else could they do at this point. Plus, you still have the Mike wild card out there. Is he going to stay loyal and try to avenge Gus by going fter Walt? Should be a great final season.

[Krazymojo]

I was thinking the exact same thing with Mike total wild card left it in the air. And what if they somehow bring back Gus, like a miracle and survives.

[Love The Action]

I was thinking the exact same thing with Mike total wild card left it in the air. And what if they somehow bring back Gus, like a miracle and survives.

The news said three guys died, but you are right...they did make it seem like Gus might have survived...fuk...can't wait till next season