LTA's MLB Plays

[Love The Action]

http://www.chicagotribune.com/sports...,4468090.story

Thanks....kenny is losing all credibility...

[Redscot]

That was already known and expected when I made the play...lewis is horrible against lefties so its to detroits advantage to play dirks tonight...

This Delmon Young fascination kills me . Dude is an average hitter, poor/average defender, poor/average base runner....Dirks is definitely an upgrade for this game.

[Love The Action]

LTA you have 126,000 views on this thread... you realize how ridiculous and awesome that is @ the same time. Perhaps you're avatar is correct, just don't go around poisoning young children bro, I'm sure you catch my drift - those that haven't seen BREAKING BAD won't understand.

I'll leave that up to mr. white...he's just ruthless...

Is that a lot of views? I dont know about that stuff....i only started this thread in mid july after the all star break...before the break, I posted all my mlb plays in my nba thread...

[Adm. Cowpollock]

This Delmon Young fascination kills me . Dude is an average hitter, poor/average defender, poor/average base runner....Dirks is definitely an upgrade for this game.

Totally agree red, Detroit lost nothing except bench depth when Raburn swapped in for Young a couple games ago. Delmon's not a bad player, but he'll never have a bust at Cooperstown. Let's play ball and hit that 4.5 over in 5!

[Love The Action]

This Delmon Young fascination kills me . Dude is an average hitter, poor/average defender, poor/average base runner....Dirks is definitely an upgrade for this game.

Finally....someone that knows what the heck they are talking about. Sometimes the stupidity around here really frustrates me....

[No coincidences]

Finally....someone that knows what the heck they are talking about. Sometimes the stupidity around here really frustrates me....

Tigers haven't hit in the postseason -- Delmon has. Dirks is a rookie. I'm not saying Delmon is good, but given what he did in the NYY series, you have to give him some credit.

[815Sox]

Thanks....kenny is losing all credibility...

If Konerko does decide to go into coaching or managing, I'd imagine he would be good. But obviously not right now, what that says more to me than anything is that he was running the clubhouse after Ozzie checked out around August.

Totally agree red, Detroit lost nothing except bench depth when Raburn swapped in for Young a couple games ago. Delmon's not a bad player, but he'll never have a bust at Cooperstown. Let's play ball and hit that 4.5 over in 5!

Delmon Young played like garbage until he got to Detroit, he is doing well right now. But I think he will be a streaky player for the rest of his career at best. Raburn has hit some very clutch homers this year for Detroit. I saw one in person in Chicago, it sucked.

[asdfghasdfgh]

MLB 2011 Playoffs 10/11/11

Play #1

Tigers -1RL (+101) 1x (Locked)

I missed the move from -125 to its current price in the -138 range. I have the Tigers set at -140 so there's not a lot of value left on the moneyline. Because I think this one is either a Tigers romp or a loss, I'm going to avoid the juice and risk the push. Off to a meeting so no time for an in depth writeup but Fister is a huge advantage over Lewis and its now or never for detriot. I'm rolling with the Tigers on the -1rl for 1x. Good luck.

I'm on the moneyline. GL to us both.

[Redscot]

If Konerko does decide to go into coaching or managing, I'd imagine he would be good. But obviously not right now, what that says more to me than anything is that he was running the clubhouse after Ozzie checked out around August.

Agreed. To me Konerko has to be the most underrated, unheralded player over the last decade +. I have a lot of respect for that guy and his approach.

[815Sox]

That was already known and expected when I made the play...lewis is horrible against lefties so its to detroits advantage to play dirks tonight...

Good to know, Just so you know I wasn't questioning the pick or anything. I am on it myself. I think Detroit does well tonight.

[Love The Action]

Tigers haven't hit in the postseason -- Delmon has. Dirks is a rookie. I'm not saying Delmon is good, but given what he did in the NYY series, you have to give him some credit.

Again...the point isnt about giving young credit...hes a decent player...its about getting another LEFTY bat in the lineup against a pitcher who is horrible against lefties.

[No coincidences]

Again...the point isnt about giving young credit...hes a decent player...its about getting another LEFTY bat in the lineup against a pitcher who is horrible against lefties.

I get that, but I'm not sure if Dirks is ready for this stage. This is the biggest game of the Tigers' season so far. I hope the kid isn't overwhelmed by the pressure, though I wouldn't blame him if he was.

[Redscot]

Under really gathering some steam here late.

[Trivial]

Indeed. Even for the STL/MIL pick tomorrow, the under in most places is already 7 -105.

[Love The Action]

Good to know, Just so you know I wasn't questioning the pick or anything. I am on it myself. I think Detroit does well tonight.

I know...I don't care if you were, in fact, I always support people that question my plays or reasoning behind it. That's what spurs discussion and leaning. Don't worry bud...I'm not someone that gets bent out of shape when someone questions my plays. I use that as an opportunity to discuss reasoning. I view this thread as open to all ideas about games whether they agree or disagree with my own.

Let's cash our Detroit tickets bud...good luck

[Love The Action]

Under really gathering some steam here late.

Yeah...I leaned under but only at 9. I wouldn't play under 8.5 in this spot because I could see Lewis giving up a couple big innings and then who knows what happens after that. I would feel safe at 9, but not at 8.5.

[Love The Action]

If Konerko does decide to go into coaching or managing, I'd imagine he would be good. But obviously not right now, what that says more to me than anything is that he was running the clubhouse after Ozzie checked out around August.



Delmon Young played like garbage until he got to Detroit, he is doing well right now. But I think he will be a streaky player for the rest of his career at best. Raburn has hit some very clutch homers this year for Detroit. I saw one in person in Chicago, it sucked.

Konerko is great, don't get me wrong. I respect the guy big time. My point was that for Kenny to consider a player/manager in this day in age is ludicrous with the other experienced managerial candidates out there. To me, the Ventura signing was a big mistake. Kenny just wants to be known as a genius if it works out...

[Love The Action]

Bullshit ducksnorts scoring a run...

[Trivial]

Bullshit ducksnorts scoring a run...

Just one run. We'll get there.

[815Sox]

Konerko is great, don't get me wrong. I respect the guy big time. My point was that for Kenny to consider a player/manager in this day in age is ludicrous with the other experienced managerial candidates out there. To me, the Ventura signing was a big mistake. Kenny just wants to be known as a genius if it works out...

Yeah I am not totally sure how I feel about it yet. I like the Parent signing as bench coach. I feel like the whole Ventura signing is either going to work out great or be terrible, Sox fans turn quickly, even on somebody like Ventura. As for the Konerko thing, yeah that was totally absurd. At the very least, It wouldn't be fair to Konerko to put on all that extra responsibility. The Sox just need to let him focus on being the best player he can be. He has had some great years considering his age, but that is not a guarantee by any means. How would people react if he had a bad year on the field as the player manager? How would he be expected to handle Dunn and Rios if they suck again as well as be a team member.

As for the game, I am not worried right now. My main concern is for Detroit to get going, I don't want Lewis to get too confident. This crowd is ready to get going, they need something to cheer for. I am flipping between this game and two other hockey games lol.

[Love The Action]

Yeah I am not totally sure how I feel about it yet. I like the Parent signing as bench coach. I feel like the whole Ventura signing is either going to work out great or be terrible, Sox fans turn quickly, even on somebody like Ventura. As for the Konerko thing, yeah that was totally absurd. At the very least, It wouldn't be fair to Konerko to put on all that extra responsibility. The Sox just need to let him focus on being the best player he can be. He has had some great years considering his age, but that is not a guarantee by any means. How would people react if he had a bad year on the field as the player manager? How would he be expected to handle Dunn and Rios if they suck again as well as be a team member.

As for the game, I am not worried right now. My main concern is for Detroit to get going, I don't want Lewis to get too confident. This crowd is ready to get going, they need something to cheer for. I am flipping between this game and two other hockey games lol.

Good luck with your hockey...if NBA doesn't get going by the time MLB is over, I will start making some NHL line movement plays. I've also dusted off an old hockey totals model I've messed with...going to track that for awhile...

[Redscot]

I am impressed with Fisters approach thus far tonight, and he hasn't gotten the benefit of the outside corner. Detroit needs to try and capitalize on this momentum here.....

[Love The Action]

Uh oh...Victor Martinez looks like he hurt himself on that home run swing....

[815Sox]

If the Tigers lose V Mart, that is really going to hurt them for the rest of the series. The protection provided by VMart is huge for Miggy.

[Love The Action]

MLB 2011 Playoffs 10/12/11

Play #1

Brewers/Cardinals under (7) (+100) 1x (Locked) (Subject to buy out for weather concerns)

Locking this one in now at plus odds. FYI - we do have some rain concerns to deal with. If this one looks like the rain will affect the starting pitchers I may have to buy out before game time tomorrow. Otherwise, this is a solid play that I would have liked to play for a higher stake but for the weather issues and the ump assignments. Both pitchers have performed outstanding sans Carpenter's three day rest debacle. We all know both of these guys have great advanced stats, so I won't go there. But once again we see this pitching matchup pits two guys who have also fared well against the opposing lineups. Out of the two lineups, only Fielder and Weeks have hit Carpenter and only Furcal, Berkman and Pujols have hit Gallardo. Those are some pretty respectable names, but this is the playoffs. Runs are at a premium during the playoffs and I expect the same on Wednesday. Unfortunately, the ump is Holbrook and he's a notorious over guy with a pathetic 61.7% strike rate (call some strikes azzhole!!) so this is a big wild card on this play and along with the weather holds me back from making this a bit bigger. Nevertheless, the wind should be blowing across the field so that not the worst case scenario. I have this one at 6.2 and I don't think this one hits 8. I expect all bets heavily on the over, but the under to close at 7 (-110) or more, so we're getting great value at 7 (+100). I'm rolling with the under for 1x. Good luck.

Play #2

Rangers ML (-108) 1x (Locked)

I really hope Detroit wins tonight because that sets up perfectly for a play on the Rangers in this spot. I am thinking about adding to this play and may do so down the road. In this case, we see a pretty solid pitching advantage to Harrison, despite both pitchers having very poor results against the opposing lineups. Nevertheless, if you look at the advanced stats, it's pretty clear the Rangers should take this game when you weigh what is proving be a Texas lineup that is superior to an ailing Detroit lineup. Plus, if Martinez is hurt for this game with a potential oblique injury, that could be the series right there with no one available to protect Cabrera. Harrison has a better WAR, SIERA, K% and comparable GB/FB to Porcello, but his situational splits are also glaringly in his favor. When you consider Harrison had a better FIP and xFIP in September/October, performed much better in high leverage situations and has better platoon splits (L/R) than Porcello, it's pretty clear you have to side with Harrison in this spot, especially considering the offensive and really the bullpen advantage as well. If the Tigers can win tonight, this makes this game ultra important for the Rangers so they can face Verlander up 3-1 as opposed to tied 2-2. If not, they will be looking to close it out. Either way, I have the Rangers at -116 in this game, so we're also getting great value. To me, everything points to the Rangers in this spot and I'm rolling with Texas for 1x and maybe more down the line. Good luck.

[No coincidences]

Make sure you get Porcello as the starter, just in case Verlander goes. I don't think he will unless the Tigers lose.

[Love The Action]

Make sure you get Porcello as the starter, just in case Verlander goes. I don't think he will unless the Tigers lose.

I did. Good point for all you guys out there if you like this play. Make sure you check off Harrison/Porcello and not action/action or Harrsion/action.

[playz]

I did. Good point for all you guys out there if you like this play. Make sure you check off Harrison/Porcello and not action/action or Harrsion/action.

WHats your recond for the year, how many units are you up/down?

[Love The Action]

WHats your recond for the year, how many units are you up/down?

Geez...you can't even just look back a couple pages? Let me guess...you're not one for making much of an effort for stuff in life huh?


Just kidding bud...just check a couple pages for my record after yesterday...

[No coincidences]

I did. Good point for all you guys out there if you like this play. Make sure you check off Harrison/Porcello and not action/action or Harrsion/action.

I'd say the chances of Verlander starting if Detroit wins tonight would be less than 1%. If they lose, though, I'd bump it to 50%.

[815Sox]

Good luck with your hockey...if NBA doesn't get going by the time MLB is over, I will start making some NHL line movement plays. I've also dusted off an old hockey totals model I've messed with...going to track that for awhile...

I'd be really interested to see the results of that. I lost a tough one tonight, but that is how it goes. So far I've had a very good start.

Glad the Tigers hit it tonight, got the RL +114!

[asdfghasdfgh]

Nice cash.

[MasterEOD]

LTA,
Nice cash tonight...saved me from my pathetic attempt at betting on NHL. Already in for the under in the STL game and ml on TEX. Keep up the great work. By the way would love to see you do some serious damage in the NHL arena. Alot of good value in most of those games...

[Love The Action]

MLB Final Numbers for Regular Season 2011

418 - 378 = +38.03x

MLB 2011 Playoff Recap 10/10/11

1 - 0 = +1.01x

A nice win on the Tigers -1RL, as the Tigers offense beats up Lewis and Fister dominates just as we predicted. This sets up tomorrow's play on the Rangers perfectly...

MLB 2011 Playoffs

12 - 6 = +6.112x

Back to the grind...two plays on Wednesday...good luck.

[Jago2008]

Nice call on the Tigers LTA, the Texas offense ran into the buzzsaw that is Doug Fister. Thank God the under hit, that fly ball out by Napoli in the top of the 9th almost made me have a 4 unit loss and fist-wall meeting, instead I'm up .10U YEARSCHE.... (sarcasm), with a 1U parlay under 8 1/2(+105)- todays game, and Cardinals RL(+150) 2morrow still alive. On a flyer here, hope that hits.

Fister 7 2/3 innings of 2 run baseball- game, set, match bro.

In any case nice call, Leyland had some questionable calls bringing in Uehara (spelling?) to relieve after his poor outing earlier; regardless Detroit showed some pride and poise in earning this win, any fan of Detroit should be proud of the performance 2night.