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  • mt675826
    SBR Rookie
    • 03-14-11
    • 30

    #4236
    Not that people should go higher, just that LTA's units wagered reflected exactly what I was thinking - quite confident in the Cards/Phils under (so 2x), even with the price, but less so with AZ/MIL (1.5x). I was thinking the same thing before I even opened this thread and him doing .5 less on the AZ/MIL made me want to stay away from it. I expected both unders to be his picks but as I said I shy away from Brewers unders and the lower wager just added to my doubt on that pick. Although of all times to consider a Brewers under, at home... this might be a good one.

    Basically, higher confidence, higher wager. And vice versa. I was thinking under and expected him to as well, but was just wondering what his reason for not doing 2x for each might have been given the similar totals and circumstances (great pitching, defensive approach, small ball, game 5, etc.). Sorry if it was unclear.
    Comment
    • No coincidences
      SBR Aristocracy
      • 01-18-10
      • 76300

      #4237
      Hey LTA -- did you see Texas is +105 in Game 1 but -125 to win the series vs. Detroit? Interesting.
      Comment
      • upscope
        SBR MVP
        • 04-26-11
        • 2837

        #4238
        What is preferred

        U 7 -125
        U 6.5 +105
        Comment
        • Love The Action
          SBR Posting Legend
          • 11-08-10
          • 10952

          #4239
          Per my above post, I am actually playing the Cards/Phillies under (7)(-125) for 2.5x and the AZ/Mil under (7.5)(-120) for 1.5x.

          I love both unders, but the cards/phillies has few more factors supoorting that play and my model likes that play just a bit more than the az/mil under so I am staking the plays accordingly.

          As a side note, both totals are starting to move in favor of the under and I expect a half run drop soon. Therefore, if you also like them, you may want to lock them up now. Good luck.
          Comment
          • Love The Action
            SBR Posting Legend
            • 11-08-10
            • 10952

            #4240
            Originally posted by upscope
            What is preferred

            U 7 -125
            U 6.5 +105
            In essence, they are almost equal in "price." However, I only like this play at 2.5x if you can get 7. That is very important as your probability of losing increases if you play 6.5. GL
            Comment
            • Love The Action
              SBR Posting Legend
              • 11-08-10
              • 10952

              #4241
              Originally posted by No coincidences
              Hey LTA -- did you see Texas is +105 in Game 1 but -125 to win the series vs. Detroit? Interesting.
              I did....this series goes to the rangers but the books will get plenty of verlander money game 1. Dont underestimate the loss of young if he can't go in the alcs. He has been their best/hottest hitter by far over the last couple weeks.....gl
              Comment
              • gshock1
                SBR Hall of Famer
                • 12-04-09
                • 5366

                #4242
                What sides do you lean on LTA?

                BTW - keep up the great work. I really respect and value your perspective on all sports.
                Comment
                • Redscot
                  SBR MVP
                  • 05-16-11
                  • 2571

                  #4243
                  If you are digging the unders and feeling adventurous parlaying the 2 dogs with the unders gives like a 19-1 payout. Not advocating this play just info.
                  Comment
                  • BigBoi
                    SBR MVP
                    • 04-01-11
                    • 1084

                    #4244
                    LTA, my under in STL/PHIL moved to 6.5. Still take it?
                    Comment
                    • Love The Action
                      SBR Posting Legend
                      • 11-08-10
                      • 10952

                      #4245
                      Originally posted by gshock1
                      What sides do you lean on LTA?

                      BTW - keep up the great work. I really respect and value your perspective on all sports.
                      Originally posted by BigBoi
                      LTA, my under in STL/PHIL moved to 6.5. Still take it?
                      See above...already responded to these same questions...good luck!
                      Comment
                      • Love The Action
                        SBR Posting Legend
                        • 11-08-10
                        • 10952

                        #4246
                        It's a bit disconcerting that Pinny and few others are not dropping the total to 6.5, instead deciding to juice the hell out of 7 at one of the highest amounts I've seen all year. Just drop already....
                        Comment
                        • Love The Action
                          SBR Posting Legend
                          • 11-08-10
                          • 10952

                          #4247
                          Well that sucked...come on Axford...
                          Comment
                          • 815Sox
                            SBR MVP
                            • 09-13-10
                            • 1078

                            #4248
                            just end it already.. solo shot
                            Comment
                            • Redscot
                              SBR MVP
                              • 05-16-11
                              • 2571

                              #4249
                              We should be ok LTA.

                              This is baseball! Love games like this. You can have your 9-7 games public, not for me. Every AB, every decision, What a catch by Young earlier! Wow!

                              Let's get this under and move on
                              Comment
                              • Redscot
                                SBR MVP
                                • 05-16-11
                                • 2571

                                #4250
                                Originally posted by 815Sox
                                just end it already.. solo shot
                                We still have some wiggle room here. Honestly, I'd like to see the D-back win this one.
                                Not on the side, (have a parlay,but it isn't significant) just like there team better.
                                Comment
                                • mt675826
                                  SBR Rookie
                                  • 03-14-11
                                  • 30

                                  #4251
                                  Originally posted by Love The Action
                                  Per my above post, I am actually playing the Cards/Phillies under (7)(-125) for 2.5x and the AZ/Mil under (7.5)(-120) for 1.5x.

                                  I love both unders, but the cards/phillies has few more factors supoorting that play and my model likes that play just a bit more than the az/mil under so I am staking the plays accordingly.

                                  As a side note, both totals are starting to move in favor of the under and I expect a half run drop soon. Therefore, if you also like them, you may want to lock them up now. Good luck.
                                  Thanks a ton for your analysis and input, always worth a look and it's much appreciated.

                                  And yeah got the two unders in a parlay, really glad I didn't puss out on the Brewers under!
                                  Comment
                                  • Love The Action
                                    SBR Posting Legend
                                    • 11-08-10
                                    • 10952

                                    #4252
                                    Originally posted by Love The Action
                                    MLB 2011 Playoffs 10/7/11

                                    Play #1

                                    D-Backs/Brewers under (7.5)(-120) 1.5x (Locked)

                                    Play #2

                                    Cards/Phillies under (7)(-125) 2.5x (Locked)
                                    Play #2

                                    Added 0.50 for total of 3x Cards/Phils under (7)(-125) (Locked)


                                    Good luck!
                                    Comment
                                    • Krazymojo
                                      SBR Sharp
                                      • 12-01-10
                                      • 444

                                      #4253
                                      damn missed the extra .5
                                      Comment
                                      • Love The Action
                                        SBR Posting Legend
                                        • 11-08-10
                                        • 10952

                                        #4254
                                        Originally posted by Redscot
                                        You can have your 9-7 games public, not for me. Every AB, every decision, What a catch by Young earlier! Wow!

                                        Let's get this under and move on
                                        Agree 100%. This is true baseball, the way it was meant to be played. Especially National League ball...I'm not an AL guy at all.
                                        Comment
                                        • Love The Action
                                          SBR Posting Legend
                                          • 11-08-10
                                          • 10952

                                          #4255
                                          Unreal...Doc gives up a run scoring double to Skip freeking Shumaker...wtf
                                          Comment
                                          • kingsr
                                            SBR MVP
                                            • 01-23-10
                                            • 1983

                                            #4256
                                            One down, one to go!
                                            Comment
                                            • Trivial
                                              SBR MVP
                                              • 11-22-09
                                              • 1328

                                              #4257
                                              Thanks again LTA. I wish there was some way I could ship you some beer through SBR as a small token of my appreciation for all your work.
                                              Comment
                                              • Redscot
                                                SBR MVP
                                                • 05-16-11
                                                • 2571

                                                #4258
                                                That first one went well , nice call my man.
                                                Halladay will tighten the screws now, let's hope for somenice fast smooth sailing innings for a while.
                                                Comment
                                                • 815Sox
                                                  SBR MVP
                                                  • 09-13-10
                                                  • 1078

                                                  #4259
                                                  Originally posted by Redscot

                                                  We still have some wiggle room here. Honestly, I'd like to see the D-back win this one.
                                                  Not on the side, (have a parlay,but it isn't significant) just like there team better.
                                                  I could have gone either way. I live pretty close to Wisconsin (can be at the IL/WI border in 10 or 15 minute drive) so I sorta like the Brewers. But I am an American League guy through and through. It would be cool to see a Brewers/Cards series, I'd rather have that than the Phils/Brew Crew series that everyone has expected for the past few months.
                                                  Comment
                                                  • Love The Action
                                                    SBR Posting Legend
                                                    • 11-08-10
                                                    • 10952

                                                    #4260
                                                    I was hoping we would get some clarity on the Delmon Young injury. Leyland is trying to be coy, but I suspect he plays.
                                                    Comment
                                                    • Redscot
                                                      SBR MVP
                                                      • 05-16-11
                                                      • 2571

                                                      #4261
                                                      Originally posted by Love The Action
                                                      I was hoping we would get some clarity on the Delmon Young injury. Leyland is trying to be coy, but I suspect he plays.
                                                      Jimbo is definitely a coy mofo. It's what made his demonstrative move with Verlander not being available for game 5 all the more interesting to me. He could have had the Yanks thinking it possible, but slammed the door shut with the public BP session.
                                                      Comment
                                                      • Love The Action
                                                        SBR Posting Legend
                                                        • 11-08-10
                                                        • 10952

                                                        #4262
                                                        Originally posted by Redscot
                                                        Jimbo is definitely a coy mofo. It's what made his demonstrative move with Verlander not being available for game 5 all the more interesting to me. He could have had the Yanks thinking it possible, but slammed the door shut with the public BP session.
                                                        Agreed. Not sure why he just stayed quiet. Perhaps he just didn't want Verlander to deal with any questions and bs. Verlander has really dominated that dangerous Texas lineup...
                                                        Comment
                                                        • bfour
                                                          SBR Wise Guy
                                                          • 01-14-08
                                                          • 690

                                                          #4263
                                                          Originally posted by Love The Action
                                                          I was hoping we would get some clarity on the Delmon Young injury. Leyland is trying to be coy, but I suspect he plays.
                                                          I'd bet he plays early for offense and gets pulled for defense if they're ahead in the 7th or 8th.
                                                          Comment
                                                          • Redscot
                                                            SBR MVP
                                                            • 05-16-11
                                                            • 2571

                                                            #4264
                                                            Since Carp's short start loss, you have been flawless bro, no easy task . Great job, looking forward to the rest of the playoffs
                                                            Comment
                                                            • BigDan
                                                              Restricted User
                                                              • 04-28-11
                                                              • 5104

                                                              #4265
                                                              Comment
                                                              • CdeQ
                                                                SBR Rookie
                                                                • 08-10-11
                                                                • 16

                                                                #4266
                                                                BOOM!!!
                                                                Comment
                                                                • Redscot
                                                                  SBR MVP
                                                                  • 05-16-11
                                                                  • 2571

                                                                  #4267
                                                                  Originally posted by BigDan
                                                                  I know if you made a few bucks off this game it pales in comparison to the victory. You called it BigD, Congrats! Happy for you and the fact the the Phil's are KTFO!
                                                                  Comment
                                                                  • BigDan
                                                                    Restricted User
                                                                    • 04-28-11
                                                                    • 5104

                                                                    #4268
                                                                    Originally posted by Redscot
                                                                    I know if you made a few bucks off this game it pales in comparison to the victory. You called it BigD, Congrats! Happy for you and the fact the the Phil's are KTFO!

                                                                    Comment
                                                                    • MasterEOD
                                                                      SBR Rookie
                                                                      • 09-04-11
                                                                      • 46

                                                                      #4269
                                                                      great job LTA...wish I would have tailed last night also. Look forward to your insight for the championship series...
                                                                      Comment
                                                                      • Trivial
                                                                        SBR MVP
                                                                        • 11-22-09
                                                                        • 1328

                                                                        #4270
                                                                        Comment
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