New MLB System Strategies, Based on Statistics.

**ShivaBowl** · 06-18-11, 08:38 AM

06/18/11

Todays M/L plays, WIZ
FAV must be < -140
MIN?
TB
SEA?

TPR System Plays
NYY 1.3 No Play if NYY >-150
BOS 1.0 No Play >-150

H/A System Plays
LAA, 178.1 – 1169.3
TOR, 75.2 – 530.7
CHC, ½ Unit
BOS, n/p >-150

P/T Power Plays, LML
LAA
TOR
ATL ½ Unit
ATL, IP Dif <-20 P-Power Met. T-Power Met. P-DF N/G, T-DF N/G, P/Runs ok.

Scientific Approach, BM
WAS, -223
TEX, (NP <+100)
PIT, -127
CIN, -249
ANA, -188
HOU, -139
Filtered (NYY, SD, STL, DET, PHI)

Bullpen Projection System, TX:
Cubs 3.29
Cincy 2.98
Boston 2.68
Pitt 2.67
Seattle 2.48
Atl 1.83
Minny 1.47
Angels 1.42
Tampa 1.28

No Plays
Detroit np L2 5.28
CWS np L2 2.41
Dodgers np L2 1.77
Balty np(Wash W2) 1.72
Stl np L2 1.34

**HoulihansTX** · 06-18-11, 08:42 AM

Originally posted by HoulihansTX

[B][I][COLOR=Indigo]Official start (May 15 - Current)
Overall
(96-82) +9.35Units

___________________
Added Filter: No Play -150 or higher.

June 17
Bullpen Projection System

Angels3.87 W (+115)
Atl 3.51 L (+105)
Minny 3.46 W (-130)
Cincy 2.47 (No Play >-150)
Pitt 2.38 L (+140)
Boston 1.18 W (-130)

March 26 to May 14
Overall
(68-52) +22.56 Units

Official start (May 15 - Current)
Overall
(99-84) +10.5Units
___________________
Added Filter: No Play -150 or higher.

June 18
Bullpen Projection System

Cubs 3.29
Cincy 2.98
Boston 2.68
Pitt 2.67
Seattle 2.48
Atl 1.83
Minny 1.47
Angels 1.42
Tampa 1.28

No Plays
Detroit np L2 5.28
CWS np L2 2.41
Dodgers np L2 1.77
Balty np(Wash W2) 1.72
Stl np L2 1.34

**HoulihansTX** · 06-18-11, 08:47 AM

Originally posted by Formulawiz

Todays ML plays. FAV must be < -140 MIN?, TB, SEA?

Minny np <-105 np>-140
Tampa np<-120 np>-140
Colorado np<-115 np>-140
Seattle np<-140 np>-140
Cincy np<-135 np>-140

CWS np L2

BOL everyone

**BrewMaster** · 06-18-11, 09:29 AM

17Jun11 Result: 1-0
Record Official Start 15May11: 64-59 (+5.13 units)

Scientific Approach 18Jun11:

WAS, -223
TEX, (NP <+100)
PIT, -127
CIN, -249
ANA, -188
HOU, -139

Filtered (NYY, SD, STL, DET, PHI)
System NO PLAY if >-150. Good Luck

**Small Timer** · 06-18-11, 09:32 AM

Originally posted by HoulihansTX

Minny np <-105 np>-140
Tampa np<-120 np>-140
Colorado np<-115 np>-140
Seattle np<-140 np>-140
Cincy np<-135 np>-140

CWS np L2

BOL everyone

Wow those are some tight line constraints on that Seattle game.

**HoulihansTX** · 06-18-11, 10:03 AM

Originally posted by Small Timer

Wow those are some tight line constraints on that Seattle game.

I'm respecting Formulawiz's filters, and weeding out all games >-140.

Personally @>-150 is my cut off.

**chinoloco** · 06-18-11, 10:26 AM

Complimentary Selection for 6/18/2011

Take Minnesota W/Baker over San Diego W/Stauffer NO PLAY if > -140

**barts185** · 06-18-11, 12:05 PM

Originally posted by HoulihansTX

I'm respecting Formulawiz's filters, and weeding out all games >-140.

Personally @>-150 is my cut off.

I know I'm going to regret this, and if it causes issues, I won't even try again, but

Proj ML for Seattle is -105. Why does it have to be exactly -140, I thought it would be -130 to -140?

**Formulawiz** · 06-18-11, 01:49 PM

Originally posted by barts185

I know I'm going to regret this, and if it causes issues, I won't even try again, but

Proj ML for Seattle is -105. Why does it have to be exactly -140, I thought it would be -130 to -140?

Barts your 100% correct. The line must be between -130 & -140, but not above -140. If some people want to use -150 thats fine. It boils down to what ML you can tolerate. But for the record I am using -140.

**usernametaken** · 06-18-11, 01:52 PM

my game of the day is padres cause they have lost a few games and twins have won like 9 out of 10 and will be lazy as goes human nature

**HoulihansTX** · 06-18-11, 02:47 PM

Originally posted by barts185

I know I'm going to regret this, and if it causes issues, I won't even try again, but Proj ML for Seattle is -105. Why does it have to be exactly -140, I thought it would be -130 to -140?

Originally posted by Formulawiz

Barts your 100% correct. The line must be between -130 & -140, but not above -140. If some people want to use -150 thats fine. It boils down to what ML you can tolerate. But for the record I am using -140.

Independent reasoning.

I dont go over -150, b/c losing those types of bets hurts bankrolls.

I have a friend who doesnt go over -120 when laying down baseball bets. Its all arbitrary.

**sunzal** · 06-18-11, 03:02 PM

Originally posted by usernametaken

my game of the day is padres cause they have lost a few games and twins have won like 9 out of 10 and will be lazy as goes human nature

No offense but this thread is very effective on sticking with numbers and systems and keeping subjective opinions for other threads.....it's very refreshing to stick with numbers....

**barts185** · 06-18-11, 04:40 PM

I get DET as a np because COL is W2, I think that DET is only on a 1 game losing streak. Mentioning it for anyone keeping track of the W2 filter.

Good Luck,
Bart

**ShivaBowl** · 06-18-11, 05:21 PM

Originally posted by barts185

I get DET as a np because COL is W2, I think that DET is only on a 1 game losing streak. Mentioning it for anyone keeping track of the W2 filter. Good Luck, Bart

Thanks Barts185, BOL

**ShivaBowl** · 06-18-11, 05:34 PM

Originally posted by Formulawiz

Barts your 100% correct. The line must be between -130 & -140, but not above -140. If some people want to use -150 thats fine. It boils down to what ML you can tolerate. But for the record I am using -140.

Originally posted by HoulihansTX

Independent reasoning. I dont go over -150, b/c losing those types of bets hurts bankrolls. I have a friend who doesnt go over -120 when laying down baseball bets. Its all arbitrary.

All the systems are at no play if >-150
Maybe the Wiz could reconsider and move the M/L System to no play if >-150
This way we would all be on the same page?
I think we all can tolerate <-150 at this point?
BOL

**Formulawiz** · 06-19-11, 04:45 AM

ML system went 2-1, +0.7 units
YTD 58-33, +17.1 units

Plays later today.

**Formulawiz** · 06-19-11, 04:49 AM

Originally posted by ShivaBowl

All the systems are at no play if >-150
Maybe the Wiz could reconsider and move the M/L System to no play if >-150
This way we would all be on the same page?
I think we all can tolerate <-150 at this point?
BOL

As I mentioned in a earlier post I use -140 as a max filter. It has nothing to do with being on the same page at -150. Experience with this system tells me that -140 is where we should be at. I don't need to increase the number of games to play. There is no reason you can't use whatever your wallet can tolerate. For the W/L records, I am keeping -140 as a max ML.

**ShivaBowl** · 06-19-11, 05:23 AM

Originally posted by Formulawiz

As I mentioned in a earlier post I use -140 as a max filter. It has nothing to do with being on the same page at -150. Experience with this system tells me that -140 is where we should be at. I don't need to increase the number of games to play. There is no reason you can't use whatever your wallet can tolerate. For the W/L records, I am keeping -140 as a max ML.

That’s fine, but could please post all the M/L Plays for the day, regardless of the No Play if >-140 filter.
Thanks

**ShivaBowl** · 06-19-11, 05:24 AM

TPR system went 0-0 yesterday.
NYY >150 np
BOS >-150 np
Start Date 05/01
52-60 –11.26u

H/A system went 1-2 yesterday.
LAA, -136 L
TOR, +108 W
CHC, ½ Unit L
BOS, n/p >-150 np
Start Date 05/29
24-17 +4.27u

P/T Power Plays went 1-2 yesterday.
Start Date 06/12
6-7 –0.16u

**ShivaBowl** · 06-19-11, 05:29 AM

Originally posted by Formulawiz

As I mentioned in a earlier post I use -140 as a max filter. It has nothing to do with being on the same page at -150. Experience with this system tells me that -140 is where we should be at. I don't need to increase the number of games to play. There is no reason you can't use whatever your wallet can tolerate. For the W/L records, I am keeping -140 as a max ML.

Why the -140 filter this year? It did just fine last year without a -140 filter?
And what were the plays that went 2-1 yesterday?
Thanks

**ShivaBowl** · 06-19-11, 05:43 AM

ST system plays are up!
Thanks Sam

**Aussiecapper101** · 06-19-11, 06:20 AM

Keep at it guys, im with you this week

**rask7rask7** · 06-19-11, 06:21 AM

best of luck today !!

**ShivaBowl** · 06-19-11, 06:46 AM

06/19/2011

TPR System Plays
NYY 1.4 No Play if NYY > -150

H/A System Plays
PHI, No Play if PHI > -150
HOU, No Play if LAD > -150
WAS, No Play if WAS > -150
MLW
ARZ

P/T Power Plays
TOR
PHI No Play If PHI >-150
METS No Play, PR-Runs N/G Per Staf’s Filter

**HoulihansTX** · 06-19-11, 08:48 AM

Originally posted by HoulihansTX

Official start (May 15 - Current)
Overall
(99-84) +10.5Units

___________________
Added Filter: No Play -150 or higher.

June 18
Bullpen Projection System

Cubs 3.29 L (+130)
Cincy 2.98 L (-125)
Boston 2.68 (No Play >-150)
Pitt 2.67 L (+130)
Seattle 2.48 L (-130)
Atl 1.83L (-105)
Minny 1.47 W (-145)
Angels 1.42 L (-125)
Tampa 1.28 W (-140)

March 26 to May 14
Overall
(68-52) +22.56 Units

Official start (May 15 - Current)
Overall
(101-90) +5.65Units
___________________
Added Filter: No Play -150 or higher.

June 19
Bullpen Projection System

Seattle 3.13
Angels 2.35
Minny 2.11(Watch the line)
CWS 1.87
Cubs 1.16
Houston 1.14

No Plays
Cincy np L2 5.37
Detroit np L2 3.88
Pitt np L2 2.21

Tampa np >-150 1.38

**barts185** · 06-19-11, 09:15 AM

Question on the Bullpen Projection System Minny np due to line. I forget if you are just using opening lines, or will consider games if they move into range.

Minny now below -150 most places.

**HoulihansTX** · 06-19-11, 10:00 AM

Originally posted by barts185

Question on the Bullpen Projection System Minny np due to line. I forget if you are just using opening lines, or will consider games if they move into range. Minny now below -150 most places.

I use the openers, but this Minny line is worth watching.

I will change the status of Minny.

As always, wait until about 30 minutes until first pitch B4 making any bets.

BOL.

**chinoloco** · 06-19-11, 10:28 AM

Complimentary Selection for 6/19/2011

Take Washington W/Gorzelanny over Baltimore W/Jakubauskas NO PLAY if > -140

**Tommygunn** · 06-19-11, 11:56 AM

ML? SA? Bunch of games start in 15min

**BrewMaster** · 06-19-11, 12:00 PM

Record to be updated tomorrow.

Scientific Approach 19Jun11:

TOR, -237
WAS, -175

Filtered (TB, PHI, NYY, ATL, SD)
System NO PLAY if >-150. Good Luck

**rask7rask7** · 06-20-11, 05:37 AM

Good luck today .

**Formulawiz** · 06-20-11, 05:38 AM

Sorry had to leave early in the morning yesterday.
ML system went 1-0, +1.0 units
YTD 59-33, +18.1 units

Plays later today

**JVP3122** · 06-20-11, 06:29 AM

I'm a little confused about this >-150 filter. I would think that you would want the price to get larger than -150 as then it would be cheaper to play.

**Formulawiz** · 06-20-11, 06:41 AM

Todays ML plays. Fav must be < -140

ATL?, CWS?

**barts185** · 06-20-11, 07:48 AM

Originally posted by JVP3122

I'm a little confused about this >-150 filter. I would think that you would want the price to get larger than -150 as then it would be cheaper to play.

And once again, the incorrect use of mathematical symbols leads to this question.

In this thread, don't expect < or > to be used correctly from a math point of view.

No play if >-150 means no play if -151 or worse. So it would be a play at -150, -149, -148, -147, etc. and no play at -151, -152, -153, -154, etc.