New MLB System Strategies, Based on Statistics.

[BrewMaster]

20Jun11 Result: 0-1
Record Official Start 15May11: 65-65 (-0.99 units)

Scientific Approach 21Jun11:

COL, -179
OAK, -106 (np <+119)
ANA, -154 (np <-129)
CHC, -102, (np <+123)
ARZ, -121 (np <+104)
TB, -193


Filtered (TOR, DET)
System NO PLAY if >-150. Good Luck

[Tommygunn]

The TPR System, has STL as a play today?
I would not put a penny on this system, I don’t think it’s being updated this year for injuries?
TPR, how hot or cold a team is over the past 7 games Vs. the entire season.
STL L10 3-7
MIN?
Fade FAL?
Fade SDP?
TAM?
PHI?
WAS?

So your not going to play this system anymore? You don't think it will turn around?

[bigassos]

Complimentary Selection for 6/21/2011

Take Chi Cubs W/Garza over Chi W Sox W/Buehrle NO PLAY if CWS < -140

The play is on CUBS or on CWS?

[Tommygunn]

The play is on CUBS or on CWS?

It says:

Take Chi Cubs w/ Graza < -140

[Tommygunn]

20Jun11 Result: 0-1
Record Official Start 15May11: 65-65 (-0.99 units)

Scientific Approach 21Jun11:

COL, -179
OAK, -106 (np <+119)
ANA, -154 (np <-129)
CHC, -102, (np <+123)
ARZ, -121 (np <+104)
TB, -193


Filtered (TOR, DET)
System NO PLAY if >-150. Good Luck

So if Oak is +120 or more it's a np? or ANA -130 or more it's a np?

[Formulawiz]

It says:

Take Chi Cubs w/ Graza < -140

No it does'nt. Read the entire sentence.

[Tommygunn]

No it does'nt. Read the entire sentence.

You think it's a typo wiz or are the cubs only the play if cws are < -140 ???

That would be a first time I've seen sportrends put it like that.

[Formulawiz]

You think it's a typo wiz or are the cubs only the play if cws are < -140 ???

That would be a first time I've seen sportrends put it like that.

This is what it says

Take Chi Cubs W/Garza over Chi W Sox W/Buehrle NO PLAY if CWS < -140

It says NO play on CUBS if CWS ML drops below - 140

[Tommygunn]

This is what it says

Take Chi Cubs W/Garza over Chi W Sox W/Buehrle NO PLAY if CWS < -140

It says NO play on CUBS if CWS ML drops below - 140

Ok I got it hanks wiz

[Formulawiz]

ML plays went 1-1, -0.25 units
YTD 60-34, +17.85 units

By the way CUBS were not a play yesterday since CWS dropped below -140

Plays later today

[rask7rask7]

Thanx for explanations! GL

[ShivaBowl]

So your not going to play this system anymore? You don't think it will turn around?

I will not be wagering on TPR, until it starts making some since to me.
I don’t think it’s being updated for injuries and hot and cold teams. It may turn around, but as of right now the system doesn’t look right to me? Without filters TPR went 0-4 last night.
BOL

[Formulawiz]

Todays possible ML plays. Fav must be < -140

PHI?, ATL?

[ShivaBowl]

20Jun11 Result: 0-1 Record Official Start 15May11: 65-65 (-0.99 units) Scientific Approach 21Jun11: COL, -179 OAK, -106 (np <+119) ANA, -154 (np <-129) CHC, -102, (np <+123) ARZ, -121 (np <+104) TB, -193 Filtered (TOR, DET) System NO PLAY if >-150. Good Luck

.
Good post BM; I have all the info I need with SA and it saves me a ton of time!
Thank you, for all the extra work your putting in with the SA System....Nice Night$$
BOL

[ShivaBowl]

TPR system went 0-2 yesterday.
Start Date 05/01
53-63 –13.32u

H/A system went 2-0 yesterday.
Start Date 05/29
27-21 +2.55

P/T Power Plays went 0-2 yesterday.
Start Date 06/12
9-8 +1.00u
Working

[HoulihansTX]

Official start (May 15 - Current)
Overall
(108-94) +9.85Units

___________________
Added Filter: No Play -150 or higher.

June 21
Bullpen Projection System

Atl 8.67 W (-130)
Tampa 3.84 L (+125)
Cleve 3.42 L (+120)
Cubs 3.32L (+110)
Oak 2.04 W (+120)
Minny 1.70 W (+135)
Yanks 1.64 PPD

March 26 to May 14
Overall
(68-52) +22.56 Units

Official start (May 15 - Current)
Overall
(111-97) +10.4 Units
___________________
Added Filter: No Play -150 or higher.

June 22
Bullpen Projection System

Atl 7.68
Philly 6.25 (*Watch the line)
Yanks 5.86 (*Only GM1)
Tampa 4.94
Cubs 2.59
Wash 1.88

No Plays
Cleveland np L2 5.23
Detroit np L2 4.36
Boston np >-150 2.09


*Bart/Shiva, and I discussed different parameters for the BPR that were not specified by Sportrends. It also covers doubleheaders.
See Post 83
See Post 89
See Post 91

[ShivaBowl]

HoulihansTX: if you have the time today, could you post the line parameters IE:constraints
for the M/L System? I will be out all day today and it would be a big help!
I need all the plays, I don’t use the >-140 filter.
CLE yesterday

Thank you!
Bol

[ShivaBowl]

06/22/2011

TPR System Plays
BOS 2.7 R/L -1.5 –110
NYY 1.2 W/Garcia
STL 1.0
DET 1.1 No Play L/2

H/A System Plays
No Plays
SFO, 76.1—551.9 SFO L/5
HOU, 71.5—291.6 HOU L/3

P/T Plays
CLE, Strong # with P/T and BPR No Play CLE L/2
SEA,
OAK,
CWS, No Play if CWS -150 and over >-
ARZ, No play Per Staf’s Filter, PR-Runs N/G

[HoulihansTX]

Todays possible ML plays. Fav must be < -140 PHI?, ATL?

Atl np <-140
Cincy GM 2 np <-115 (Yankees pitcher <20IP)
Philly np<-130
CWS np <-165
Boston np <-165

[BrewMaster]

21Jun11 Result: 3-1
Record Official Start 15May11: 68-66 (+1.32 units)

Scientific Approach 22Jun11:

BAL, -131 (np < -116)
SD, -104
MLW, -123 (np < 102)
WAS, -130 (np<-105)
OAK, -139
FLA, -169
ARZ, -192
STL, -114

Filtered (DET, CIN, SF)
System NO PLAY if >-150. Good Luck

[Tommygunn]

Complimentary Selection for 6/22/2011

Take Atlanta W/Beachy over Toronto W/Reyes NO PLAY if > -140

[barts185]

Atl np <-140
Cincy GM 2 np <-115 (Yankees pitcher <20IP)
Philly np<-130
CWS np <-165
Boston np <-165

Checking to see if I'm doing something wrong, which I probably am.

For the ML

I thought PHI would be -120 or worse since the proj ML is STL -105 (so PHI +105 and 25 away from that would be -120).

I also get
SEA -105 or worse. (+120 -25)
COL +110 or worse. (+135 -25)


Open question (not just for HoulihansTX)

I guess part of the question is, when the home team is, for example, -120, and you want to compare values for the road team, are you starting at +120, or some other number?

[HoulihansTX]

Let's just ask Formula tomorro morning.
B/c obviously we have differing opinions on how to interpret, what is not specified. Once we come up with a solution that can be universally accepted, then problem is solved.

Bart, I think how I interpret the ML system changes with the leaves. Lol. Its hard for you to be wrong, when nothing is specfied. I dnt know if Sportrends uses 10cent/or 20cent lines. When you look @ their "current ML" column it seems as though they use 20cent lines. But hey, what do I know

[gryfyn1]

you cant 'flop' the lines like that, you have to compare the home teams line and work backwards.

Just because the home team is listed at -105 doesn't mean the vising team is +105.

like in the stl/phi game

-compare home team line (-105 to +135), 40 cent difference toward the visiting team
- you have 25 cent overlay so so you can have a move of 15 cents (listed overlay minus the minimum playable overlay)
- listed line is -155 which can move up 15 cents (-140)

[barts185]

you cant 'flop' the lines like that, you have to compare the home teams line and work backwards.

Just because the home team is listed at -105 doesn't mean the vising team is +105.

like in the stl/phi game

-compare home team line (-105 to +135), 40 cent difference toward the visiting team
- you have 25 cent overlay so so you can have a move of 15 cents (listed overlay minus the minimum playable overlay)
- listed line is -155 which can move up 15 cents (-140)

This is the question that I've been trying to get an answer for since last year. Sometimes it seems like what I'm doing with the line is correct. Sometimes it seems like it isn't.

If we can get a definite answer to this question, it would go a LONG way to removing a lot of questions about how it works (not all the questions, but a lot of them).

[HoulihansTX]

I'm all for only using the home team line as an indicator. I think that's how I used the system a year ago, but some how my line of thinkin became convoluted.

They way yesterdays Free play was listed almost cements that the home team line is the indicator.

[Small Timer]

you cant 'flop' the lines like that, you have to compare the home teams line and work backwards.

Just because the home team is listed at -105 doesn't mean the vising team is +105.

like in the stl/phi game

-compare home team line (-105 to +135), 40 cent difference toward the visiting team
- you have 25 cent overlay so so you can have a move of 15 cents (listed overlay minus the minimum playable overlay)
- listed line is -155 which can move up 15 cents (-140)

For some reason this makes a lot more sense then the actual MoneyLine system page on the website, thank you for your explanation, it makes the picking of ML teams seem much less arbitrary.

[Formulawiz]

The way I look at the ML system to make a play is as follows.

I look at the home team Proj ML and then compare it to the home team Current Line. There has to be at least a 25 cent difference. Here is where the problem may occur for some of you.
For ex: Lets assume the home team Proj ML is +110 and the HT ML is -110 and the AT ML is -115. As you can see there would not be a play on the HT since there is only a 20 cent diff. But if you compare it the the AT ML some of you would get confused by adding the +110 and -115 the AT is laying thinking there is a 25 cent diff when there is not.

[Formulawiz]

No ML plays yesterday.

Plays later today

[rask7rask7]

Good luck for today plays.

[Formulawiz]

Todays ML plays. Fav must be < -140

NYM?

[ShivaBowl]

TPR system went 1-2 yesterday.
Start Date 05/01
54-65 –14.32u

H/A system went 0-0 yesterday.
Start Date 05/29
27-21 +2.55u

P/T Power Plays went 0-2 yesterday.
Start Date 06/12
9-10 –1.00u

TPR System Plays
NYM, No Play if >-150

H/A System Plays
WAS, 129.9—1395.5

P/T Plays
SEA, No Play SEA L/2

[HoulihansTX]

Official start (May 15 - Current)
Overall
(111-97) +10.4 Units

___________________
Added Filter: No Play -150 or higher.

June 22
Bullpen Projection System

Atl 7.68 (No Play >-150)
Philly 6.25 (No Play >-150)
Yanks 5.86 (*Only GM1) W (+110)
Tampa 4.94 W (-115)
Cubs 2.59 L (+165)
Wash 1.88 W (-115)

March 26 to May 14
Overall
(68-52) +22.56 Units

Official start (May 15 - Current)
Overall
(114-98)54% +12.5 Units
___________________
Added Filter: No Play -150 or higher.

June 23
Bullpen Projection System

Philly 5.16
Mets 1.39

[ShivaBowl]

Atl np <-140
Cincy GM 2
Philly np<-130
CWS np <-165
Boston np <-165[/I]

Thanks TX: $$$

[BrewMaster]

Guys, I can't do SA today I'm in corporate meetings all day. Sorry!