New MLB System Strategies, Based on Statistics.

[barts185]

Todays ML plays. FAV must be < -140

LAA must be at -140 to be a play, no more or no less.

The projected ML for LAA is +115, not -115, so I'm not sure how they can only be a play at exactly -140.

[staf]

[B][I][COLOR=#4b0082]

Could someone takeup the duties of backtracking, or tracking from this point forth how well the system do when plays overlay? Yesterday was awesome. I hope every cashed, and have a great week.

Here's what I get:
Betting with the majority
Since April 25th 303-269 +38.80 units
Since May 15th 197-166 +25.45 units

Betting on games with one or more prediction on only one of the teams (non-conflicting)
Since April 25th 252-210 +49.43 units
Since May 15th 156-132 +18.13 units

Just for the record, I stopped tracking predictions posted in this thread about a month ago.
The last month's information is based on my own interpretations of the sportrends tables and also includes my lose by 2+ system/filter from the PTPP page and excludes the H/A system.

[barts185]

Here's what I get:
Betting with the majority
Since April 24th 303-269 +38.80 units
Since May 15th 197-166 +25.45 units

Betting on games with one or more prediction on only one of the teams (non-conflicting)
Since April 25th 252-210 +49.43 units
Since May 15th 156-132 +18.13 units

Just for the record, I stopped tracking predictions made in this thread about a month ago.
The last month's information is based on my own interpretations of the sportrends tables and also includes my lose by 2+ system/filter from the PTPP page and excludes the H/A system.

Thanks.

Do you have an updated record or spreadsheet for your lose by 2+ system?

[Formulawiz]

The projected ML for LAA is +115, not -115, so I'm not sure how they can only be a play at exactly -140.

I am not sure what your looking at but LAA is between -135 and -137 now.

[Tommygunn]

I am not sure what your looking at but LAA is between -135 and -137 now.

Barts isn't talking about the current line he's talking about the projected line. LAA are projected at +115 not -115. So anything between -110 and -140 is a play. Not just -140 that you posted in your original ML picks.

[barts185]

I am not sure what your looking at but LAA is between -135 and -137 now.

I'm looking at your post where you say "LAA must be at -140 to be a play, no more or no less."

Then I'm looking at the ML page, where it shows the projected ML for LAA to be +115.

Then I'm asking why LAA must be exactly -140? I would understand if the projected ML for LAA was -115. But the projected ML for LAA is +115 so I don't understand how you go from that to -140, a difference of 55 cents instead of 25 cents.

[staf]

Thanks.

Do you have an updated record or spreadsheet for your lose by 2+ system?

The lose by 2+ system, since May 12th, is 103-80 +26.48 units.
Using the old PTPP as a filter would remove 31 wins, 45 loses, and a loss of 11.76 units, thus resulting in 72-35 +38.24 units.

I've been asked if we should bet more on a team if there are more predictions on them.
The answer to this is no.
Prior to May 15th this would have worked, but since May 15th the teams with 2+ predictions haven't been doing any better than the ones with just one prediction.

[Formulawiz]

When I first looked at LAA they were -115. I think sportrends changed LAA to +115 after I posted early this morning at 7:00 am. Therefore LAA would be a play

[Small Timer]

Here's what I get:
Betting with the majority
Since April 25th 303-269 +38.80 units
Since May 15th 197-166 +25.45 units

Betting on games with one or more prediction on only one of the teams (non-conflicting)
Since April 25th 252-210 +49.43 units
Since May 15th 156-132 +18.13 units

Just for the record, I stopped tracking predictions posted in this thread about a month ago.
The last month's information is based on my own interpretations of the sportrends tables and also includes my lose by 2+ system/filter from the PTPP page and excludes the H/A system.

Thanks for the info, looks like I should be paying closer attention to overlaps, I only noticed themhaphazardly at times.

[agos]

Impressive records, Staf.

[Formulawiz]

ML system went 1-0, +1 unit

YTD 68-38, 21.3 units

Plays later today

[Formulawiz]

Todays ML plays. FAV must be < -140

TOR, BAL, TB, SD, LAA, SEA

[ShivaBowl]

The lose by 2+ system, since May 12th, is 103-80 +26.48 units. Using the old PTPP as a filter would remove 31 wins, 45 loses, and a loss of 11.76 units, thus resulting in 72-35 +38.24 units. I've been asked if we should bet more on a team if there are more predictions on them. The answer to this is no. Prior to May 15th this would have worked, but since May 15th the teams with 2+ predictions haven't been doing any better than the ones with just one prediction.

Your information is correct.
Staf, if you would like to takeover the P/T System and post it daily, let me know?
PM me, Thanks

[ShivaBowl]

Barts isn't talking about the current line he's talking about the projected line. LAA are projected at +115 not -115. So anything between -110 and -140 is a play. Not just -140 that you posted in your original ML picks.

Right, no one cares about the books line, we cant control line movement < >
If your posting plays that have line constraints then post the line parameters for that play.
I am getting tired with the back and fourth again this year with the M/L system.

[ShivaBowl]

TPR system went 0-1 yesterday.
Start Date 05/01
57-66 –12.32u

H/A system went 1-0 yesterday.
Start Date 05/29
35-23 +7.69u

P/T Power Plays went 1-0 yesterday.
Start Date 06/12
13-11 +1.75

TPR System Plays
Filter No Play if >-150
BOS 1.9
TOR 1.1
KC 1.2 No play SD W/2

H/A System Plays
Filter No Play if >-150
PHI 94.1—850.6
CWS 61.5—292.7
OAK 55.5—380.2 No Play OAK >-150
FYI: H/A numbers do not support plays on DET or the NYY.

[ShivaBowl]

I need someone to takeover the P/T System.
I will help you in anyway I can.
Thanks

[BrewMaster]

27Jun11 Result: 1-2
Record Official Start 15May11: 82-74 (+7.92 units)

Scientific Approach 28Jun11:

NYM, -115 (np <+110)
NYY, -227
BOS, -182
PIT, -115 (np <+110)
CIN, -299
WAS, -145 (np >-120)
ATL, -140 (np >-115)

Filtered (STL, KC, SF)
System NO PLAY if >-150. Good Luck

[Tommygunn]

I need someone to takeover the P/T System.
I will help you in anyway I can.
Thanks

I would but I'm still learning the systems. I don't really feel comfortable posting a systems plays till I have trailed for a year and am sure my posts are correct.

[Tommygunn]

Take Chi W Sox W/Floyd over Colorado W/Hammel NO PLAY if COL < -130

[HoulihansTX]

Official start (May 15 - Current)[/i][/b]
Overall
(127-105)54% +19.05 Units

___________________
Added Filter: No Play -150 or higher.

June 27
Bullpen Projection System

KC 4.61 L (+145)
Atl 3.79 W (+105)
Wash 2.67L (+125)
Dodgers 1.11 W (+105)

March 26 to May 14
Overall
(68-52) +22.56 Units

Official start (May 15 - Current)
Overall
(129-107)54% +19.15 Units
___________________
Added Filter: No Play -150 or higher.

June 28
Bullpen Projection System

Cleve 6.73
Balty 5.80
Wash 4.72
Atl 3.96
CWS 3.82
San Fran 3.41 (Only GM1)
Cincy 3.25
Toronto 2.76
Philly 1.82 **

No Plays
Yanks np(Brew W2) 8.46
KC np(Padres W2) 3.35
Oak np >-150 1.41
Mets np(Det W2) 1.29
TX np L2 1.02


**(Phillies Closer, Madson, put on DL today)

[joeytunes]

brew...im i wrong mil is on a 3 game win streak so that makes nyy no play?

[joeytunes]

and mets

[Tommygunn]

Can someone else do P/T for today?

[barts185]

When did P/T change from lower being better to higher being better for the P-Power and T-Power ratings? I -KNOW- that earlier in the year, the wording was that the lower the number, the better the rating. I now see that at some point it was changed to say that the higher the number, the better the rating.

Makes a little bit of a difference.

[BrewMaster]

brew...im i wrong mil is on a 3 game win streak so that makes nyy no play?

Recently, we've been nullifying the filter if it is countered by the team being on a Winning or Losing streak. I.e. MLW W3, however, NYY W2, therefore NYY = play.

If I'm wrong on this, please correct me guys. Thanks.

[barts185]

Recently, we've been nullifying the filter if it is countered by the team being on a Winning or Losing streak. I.e. MLW W3, however, NYY W2, therefore NYY = play.

If I'm wrong on this, please correct me guys. Thanks.

I think the only one doing this is Formulawiz. A while ago, I asked if this was going to be used as the new filter, didn't get any replies, and I think (not positive) that others have still been eliminating the plays.

[gryfyn1]

okay I looked at the PPTP plays and it looks like this; ill be wordy as Im not sure i'm correct.

Teams which Quailfy under the p-power (20 pt overlay) and t-power (100 pt overlay)

Phi @ -135)
TB @ -150
CHW @ +124
Oak @ -175(filter @ -175)
Milw @ +118(filter as NYY w)
KC @ +111(Filtered as SD W2)

Im not sure where to factor in the 'due factor' but

Teams that qualify for both due factors

KC @ +111
Oak @ -175

Not sure if this has any meaning but, the following teams qualify in Tpower and T due factor

Stl, Tx, LAD, WSH, CHW, Oak, KC

[Tommygunn]

okay I looked at the PPTP plays and it looks like this; ill be wordy as Im not sure i'm correct.

Teams which Quailfy under the p-power (20 pt overlay) and t-power (100 pt overlay)

Phi @ -135)
TB @ -150
CHW @ +124
Oak @ -175(filter @ -175)
Milw @ +118(filter as NYY w)
KC @ +111(Filtered as SD W2)

Im not sure where to factor in the 'due factor' but

Teams that qualify for both due factors

KC @ +111
Oak @ -175

Not sure if this has any meaning but, the following teams qualify in Tpower and T due factor

Stl, Tx, LAD, WSH, CHW, Oak, KC

Wash qualifies for both too

[gryfyn1]

Wash qualifies for both too

your correct, i miscalculated that.

[agos]

Good luck everyone on your bets!

[ShivaBowl]

Thanks G1 and TG, I will get back to you.
BOL

[Formulawiz]

ML plays went 3-2, +0.55 units

YTD 71-40, +21.65

Plays later today

[ShivaBowl]

TPR system went 0-2 yesterday.
Start Date 05/01
57-68 –14.73u

H/A system went 1-1 yesterday.
Start Date 05/29
36-24 +7.69u

P/T Power Plays went 1-1 yesterday.
Start Date 06/12
14-12 +1.98

TPR System Plays
Filter No Play if >-150
BOS 1.8 N/P PHI W/2
TOR 1.1 N/P L/2
KC 1.2 N/P L/2

H/A System Plays
Filter No Play if >-150
TEX

P/T Plays
Filter No Play if >-150
LAA
NYM
SFG
MLW, np NYY W/3

[ShivaBowl]

Filters; I have been using with P/T

IP: Less then a differential of 20IP to be considered play.
P-Power 20pts Higher
T-Power 100pts Higher
Pitch-DF Lower
Team- DF Lower
PR-Runs?
No Play if > -150

Take a look at LAA today,
IP Diff <-20
P-Power >+20
T-Power >+100
Pitch-DF And Team DF Even but PR Runs
favor LAA at 0, so I made LAA a play today.

SFG, is a perfect P/T Play today, all the # are in line.

NYM, if the Pitch-DF were higher, I would drop the NYM today,
due to the fact that the PR-Runs, doesn’t favor the NYM.
BOL

[HoulihansTX]

Official start (May 15 - Current)
Overall
(129-107)54% +19.15 Units
___________________
Added Filter: No Play -150 or higher.

June 28
Bullpen Projection System

Cleve 6.73 L (+150)
Balty 5.80 L (-135)
Wash 4.72 L (+115)
Atl 3.96 W (+100)
CWS 3.82L (+120)
San Fran 3.41 (Only GM1) W (-130)
Cincy 3.25 L (+140)
Toronto 2.76 L (-135)
Philly 1.82 ** W (-135)

March 26 to May 14
Overall
(68-52) +22.56 Units

Official start (May 15 - Current)
Overall
(132-114)54% +14.45 Units
___________________
Added Filter: No Play -150 or higher.

June 29
Bullpen Projection System

Cleve 5.62
Atl 4.66
Cincy 4.60
Yanks 4,18
Balty 3.76
Dodgers 3.39
SF 3.21
Philly 1.85
TX 1.63
Oak 1.47

No Play
Wash np L2 4.72
CWS np L2 3.82
Toronto np L2 3.74
KC np L2 3.35