New MLB System Strategies, Based on Statistics.

[staf]

Here's a spreadsheet with my interpretation of the PTPP and my "lose by 2+" filter.

http://www.mediafire.com/?2vvka8vb540f357

[ShivaBowl]

STAF, could you post the P/T Plays today using your filters?
Thanks

[ShivaBowl]

I cannot do 4 Systems right now, if some one wants to post P/T plays please do.
thanks

[staf]

At 1:00 Boston is a PTPP

lose by 2+ system
Toronto is expected to lose by 2 runs but lost 2 and opponent won 7

I'll try to get the rest up before the 4 PM games start.

[ShivaBowl]

I would add a filter.... no more then a difference of 20IP,
in order to come up with a true, P-Power rating.
No Play IP >20
ATL np IP Diff >20
STL np IP Diff >20
FLA np IP Diff >20
LAA np IP Diff >20
CLE np IP Diff >20

[ShivaBowl]

[quote=staf;10358369] if the PT Power Plays picks a team that is expected to lose by 2 or more runs we should pass on that team. From the site: Predicted Runs - This system calculates the number of runs the starting pitcher and bullpen is expected to give up

BOS is in agreement with P/T and PR-Runs.
So your saying BOS is a play today? I thought it was a pass if in agreement with P/T?
Thanks

[barts185]

I would add a filter.... no more then a difference of 20IP,
in order to come up with a true, P-Power rating.
No Play IP >20
ATL np IP Diff >20
STL np IP Diff >20
FLA np IP Diff >20
LAA np IP Diff >20
CLE np IP Diff >20

I'm not sure if you are just giving an example, but there are only 3 teams today with a pitcher having pitched less than 20 innings.

ATL
HOU
KAN

[staf]

[QUOTE=ShivaBowl;10383207]

if the PT Power Plays picks a team that is expected to lose by 2 or more runs we should pass on that team. From the site: Predicted Runs - This system calculates the number of runs the starting pitcher and bullpen is expected to give up

BOS is in agreement with P/T and PR-Runs.
So your saying BOS is a play today? I thought it was a pass if in agreement with P/T?
Thanks

The number in the PR-Runs column is the amount of runs their opponent is expected to score, so they're predicting Boston will win 6-4.

[Formulawiz]

Does anyone have any statistical data on (PP) pitcher power found everyday in the sportrends chart. I use it all the time but have not kept any W/L records. EX: Look at STL Vs MIL today. Carpenter ERA 4.25 and Greinke ERA 4.83. Although Carpenter has a slightly better ERA, Greinke is superior in his PP rating. 84 vs 187. I spoke with sportrends and they indicated there are several stats that go into computing the PP value. Any thoughts?

[barts185]

I cannot do 4 Systems right now, if some one wants to post P/T plays please do.
thanks

Here's what I get for the P/T plays, but I really don't think I'm doing it the same way you've been doing it, so am afraid this will confuse things.

Just to be clear, I'm using the info from

http://sportrends.com/team_pr_mlb.htm

Lower scores are better, so the difference is on for the lower score.

For P-Power, if there's a difference of 20.0 or more (greater than 19.99 if you prefer), P-Power is on
For T-Power, if there's a difference of 100.0 or more (greater than 99.99 if you prefer), T-Power is on

If both are on, it's a one unit play.
If ONLY P-Power is on, it's a 0.5 unit play.

If not designated 0.5 below, it's a 1 unit play.
I'll comment on filters and the run difference.


CIN (SFG has a 7 run difference in their favor)
CUB (PHI has a 2 run difference in their favor)
FLA (ARI has a 2 run difference in their favor)
STL (STL has a 1 run difference in their favor, so this wouldn't come into play)
COL line is right at -150 so have to watch it (COL has a 3 run difference in their favor)
BOS (BOS has a 2 run difference in their favor)
0.5 TEX (TEX has a 3 run difference in their favor)
BAL (BAL has a 2 run difference in their favor)
DET (DET has a 2 run difference in their favor)
CWS (OAK has a 2 run difference in their favor)


ATL np both pitchers have less than 20 innings pitched (HOU has a 1 run difference in their favor, so this wouldn't come into play)
CLE np L2 (CLE has a 1 run difference in their favor, so this wouldn't come into play)
LAA np L2 / KAN W2 (KAN has a 2 run difference in their favor)

[barts185]

Does anyone have any statistical data on (PP) pitcher power found everyday in the sportrends chart. I use it all the time but have not kept any W/L records. EX: Look at STL Vs MIL today. Carpenter ERA 4.25 and Greinke ERA 4.83. Although Carpenter has a slightly better ERA, Greinke is superior in his PP rating. 84 vs 187. I spoke with sportrends and they indicated there are several stats that go into computing the PP value. Any thoughts?

Is the sportrends chart something that comes with the software, or is it something that is on the site?

[EXhoosier10]

Barts, hows this doing this year? Shiva still fudging his records?

[barts185]

Barts, hows this doing this year? Shiva still fudging his records?

It's actually - A LOT - better this year. Not perfect, but definitely a lot better.

Also, Shiva was not the one fudging records that I recall.

[staf]

PTPP
1 unit
Boston
Baltimore
Detroit
St Louis
Colorado
1/2 unit
Texas

Filtered
Cleveland (L2)
Cubs (lose by 2+)
Cincinnati (lose by 2+)
Atlanta (IP)
White Sox (lose by 2+)
Florida (lose by 2+)
Angels (L6, lose by 2+)

lose by 2+ system
Minnesota
Seattle

Filtered
Toronto (L2)
Cubs (agree with PTPP)
Cincinnati (agree with PTPP)
Tampa Bay (W4)
White Sox (agree with PTPP)
Florida (agree with PTPP)
Dodgers (L3)
Angels (L6, agree with PTPP)

[staf]

Here's the spreadsheet I use to download the tables from the Sportrends site, and make the initial calculations.

[ShivaBowl]

The number in the PR-Runs column is the amount of runs their opponent is expected to score, so they're predicting Boston will win 6-4.

Staf thank, you but PR-Runs column is what the teams starting pitcher and bullpen is expected to give up.
BOS only to give up 4 runs and TOR to give up 6 runs.
So from now on the filters for P/T Plays will be.
WE have a P/T play if the PR- Runs column is in agreement with PP and PT by 2 or more runs.
And no more then 20IP Diff and np if >-140
Thanks for your help. We are on the same page now.
Thanks again!
BOL

[barts185]

Staf thank, you but PR-Runs column is what the teams starting pitcher and bullpen is expected to give up.
BOS only to give up 4 runs and TOR to give up 6 runs.

You're both saying the same thing, just in different ways.



"PR-Runs column is what the teams starting pitcher and bullpen is expected to give up"

IS EXACTLY THE SAME AS

"the amount of runs their opponent is expected to score"



"BOS only to give up 4 runs and TOR to give up 6 runs."

IS EXACTLY THE SAME AS

BOS to score 6 and TOR to score 4


________________________________________ ______________

Or, if you want to think of it this way:

Runs a starter gives up + runs the bullpen gives up = runs the opponent scores.

[ShivaBowl]

[quote=barts185;10390143] You're both saying the same thing, just in different ways.
Thanks bart we are on the same page now!
You know all to well how these system can mass with your head
Thanks again, BOL

[ShivaBowl]

Does anyone have any statistical data on (PP) pitcher power found everyday in the sportrends chart. I use it all the time but have not kept any W/L records. EX: Look at STL Vs MIL today. Carpenter ERA 4.25 and Greinke ERA 4.83. Although Carpenter has a slightly better ERA, Greinke is superior in his PP rating. 84 vs 187. I spoke with sportrends and they indicated there are several stats that go into computing the PP value. Any thoughts?

WIZ, you’re not getting a true number on (PP) with MLW and STL, today,
because of the differences in IP, (STL IP 84) (MLW IP 41)

EX: Your getting a good (PP) number today with BOS and TOR
(BOS IP 45.0) (TOR IP 50.0) that’s only a difference of 5 IP.
Do you have thoughts, on this?
Thanks

[barts185]

[quote=ShivaBowl;10390409]

You're both saying the same thing, just in different ways.
Thanks bart we are on the same page now!
You know all to well how these system can mass with your head
Thanks again, BOL

I know all too well

Glad to help when I can - still having a lot of issues, but trying to help out as possible.

[ShivaBowl]

xxx

[grilldog24]

what system is working the best !!!!!!!!! money line i 've been following

[barts185]

what system is working the best !!!!!!!!! money line i 've been following

Since 06/11, would have the say the HA overs.

Glad that you've been able to find the ML plays.

[sunzal]

Since 06/11, would have the say the HA overs.

Glad that you've been able to find the ML plays.

I've been charting them all and playing the games that have the most systems on em.....usually will play when one team has 3 more than the other.....sometimes when 2.....very simple but having a ton of success over past few weeks..... I'm sure there's a more effective way to weigh the systems differently and strengthen certain system combinations, but that may take some time to figure....for now simple is working...thanks for all the work you all put in.....much appreciated

[grilldog24]

What are HA overs stand for ? Some one post the ml plays every day THANKS

[ShivaBowl]

TPR system went 2-1 yesterday.
TEX –136 L
DET –118 W
CIN +143 W
Start Date 05/01
48-53 –8.34u

H/A system went 2-2 yesterday.
MLW 2 units –132 W
SFO –153 L
OAK +100 L
ARZ –127 W
Start Date 05/29
13-7 +3.39u

H/A Total Plays went 7-1 yesterday.
½ Unit plays today
TOR & BOS Over 9 –115 W
PHI & CHC Over 7.5 –120 W
SFO & CIN Over 6.5 –110 W
BAL & TAM Over 7.5 –125 W
PIT & NYM Over 8 –115 L
MLW & STL Over 7.5 –115 W
FLA & ARZ Over 7.5 –110 W
COL & LAD Over 9 –110 W
Start Date 06/01
21-13 +4.98u

[ShivaBowl]

Thanks. And Yes Minny sucks, but this guy Colby Lewis for the Rangers is trash also.

Points Awarded: ShivaBowl gave HoulihansTX 10 SBR Point(s) for this post.

Nice call HoulihansTX, Thanks!

[rask7rask7]

Keep up the good work guys!

[Formulawiz]

Is the sportrends chart something that comes with the software, or is it something that is on the site?

Just on the website

[Formulawiz]

Yesterday's ML plays went 2-2, -0.1 units

YTD 48-28, +13.2 units

Plays later today

[Formulawiz]

Todays ML Plays. FAV must be < -140

PIT?, NYY?, CWS?. Check lines prior to game.

By the way it looks like sportrends added a new system for pitching called Due Factor. I guess it can be used in conjunction with the pitching power. Another tool for us.

[ShivaBowl]

Sportrends, has updated their Pitching and Team Overall Power Rating System.
I now have to scrap the old system and start a new P/T system as of today.

[HoulihansTX]

Official start (May 15 - Current)
Overall
(77-69) +4.60Units

___________________
Added Filter: No Play -150 or higher.

June 11
Bullpen Projection System

Brew Crew 3.60 W (-135)
Minny 2.96 W (+125)
San Fran 1.84 (No Play >-150)
Boston 1.49 W (+115)
San Diego 1.27L (-110)

March 26 to May 14
Overall
(68-52) +22.56 Units

Official start (May 15 - Current)
Overall
(80-70) +6.90Units
___________________
Added Filter: No Play -150 or higher.

June 12
Bullpen Projection System

Florida 4.74
Brew 3.38
San Fran 3.12
Balty 3.00
Minny 2.56
Pitt 1.88
Detroit 1.61

Yanks np>-150
San Diego np L2

[HoulihansTX]

Points Awarded: ShivaBowl gave HoulihansTX 10 SBR Point(s) for this post. Nice call HoulihansTX, Thanks!

Thanks.

And I see the new system, that they have started. It seems more convoluted than ever.

[grilldog24]

WHAT TIME DOES THE HA OVERS GET PUT UP ! NEVER PLAYED THEM BUT SOMEONE SAID THEY ARE THE PLAYS TO PLAY