New MLB System Strategies, Based on Statistics.

**BrewMaster** · 06-09-11, 03:02 PM

Originally posted by staf

If a team is expected to lose by 2 or more runs.

Basically I'm saying this is something worth tracking as a possible filter to add to the pt power plays.

Here's what I'm doing:

Today, Pittsburgh is a PT Power Play and is expected to give up 5 runs.
Their opponent is expected to give up 0 runs, so Pittsburgh is expected to lose by 5 runs.

I haven't tracked how a difference of only 1 would do as the site says to use a difference of 2 or more.

Another thing I've been tracking since 5-12 is, the teams expected to lose by 2 or more runs are 61-47 +16.45 units. Passing on the 35 games agreeing with the PT Power Plays would improve it to 49-24 +26.28 units.

It's too bad Sportrends doesn't have a database of these tables so we could properly back-test them.

Staf, would you mind starting another daily approach? With percentages like this, I think its worth sharing in the thread. It helps others think of creative ways to "play" with the filters. You could even call it The Staf System!

**barts185** · 06-09-11, 03:14 PM

Originally posted by grilldog24

money line plays up yet ?

Yes, they are up. Have been since early morning. Starting to wonder if this is just your way of getting a post for points.

I mean, it is REALLY that hard to look back a few posts and see today's date with the plays posted?

**losemyloot** · 06-09-11, 03:45 PM

Originally posted by staf

If a team is expected to lose by 2 or more runs.

Basically I'm saying this is something worth tracking as a possible filter to add to the pt power plays.

Here's what I'm doing:

Today, Pittsburgh is a PT Power Play and is expected to give up 5 runs.
Their opponent is expected to give up 0 runs, so Pittsburgh is expected to lose by 5 runs.

I haven't tracked how a difference of only 1 would do as the site says to use a difference of 2 or more.

Another thing I've been tracking since 5-12 is, the teams expected to lose by 2 or more runs are 61-47 +16.45 units. Passing on the 35 games agreeing with the PT Power Plays would improve it to 49-24 +26.28 units.

It's too bad Sportrends doesn't have a database of these tables so we could properly back-test them.

Staf, did you see my post yesterday about using these two systems? I think we are somewhat on the same page but I am a little confused on your wording above. In your example with Pittsburgh are you considering them a "no play" since PT is favoring Pitt but PR has Arizona as the pick. I really think sportstrends intends to have these two systems working together and canceling each other out when they don't agree.

**sunzal** · 06-09-11, 03:46 PM

Amen

**losemyloot** · 06-09-11, 03:54 PM

Originally posted by staf

If a team is expected to lose by 2 or more runs.

Basically I'm saying this is something worth tracking as a possible filter to add to the pt power plays.

Here's what I'm doing:

Today, Pittsburgh is a PT Power Play and is expected to give up 5 runs.
Their opponent is expected to give up 0 runs, so Pittsburgh is expected to lose by 5 runs.

I haven't tracked how a difference of only 1 would do as the site says to use a difference of 2 or more.

Another thing I've been tracking since 5-12 is, the teams expected to lose by 2 or more runs are 61-47 +16.45 units. Passing on the 35 games agreeing with the PT Power Plays would improve it to 49-24 +26.28 units.

It's too bad Sportrends doesn't have a database of these tables so we could properly back-test them.

Staff is this kinda what you've been doing? (see paragraph below)

I have been thinking about combining both the PT Power Plays and the PR Plays to come up with picks. Basically the two systems would be used to filter the plays of the other one. I was thinking that if it is a play in one of the systems it has to have the same lean in the other system (not necessarily be a pick in the other system just have the same lean on a game) I just found it odd that these two systems are displayed on the same page and contradict each other often. I am assuming that in situations where they do agree or at least slightly agree these might be good plays.

**grilldog24** · 06-09-11, 04:13 PM

just dont look back to 500 in morning lol

**staf** · 06-09-11, 04:57 PM

Originally posted by losemyloot

Staf, did you see my post yesterday about using these two systems? I think we are somewhat on the same page but I am a little confused on your wording above. In your example with Pittsburgh are you considering them a "no play" since PT is favoring Pitt but PR has Arizona as the pick. I really think sportstrends intends to have these two systems working together and canceling each other out when they don't agree.

The PR is using the team expected to win by 2 or more runs and therefore is picking Arizona. What I'm saying is, if the PT Power Plays picks a team that is expected to lose by 2 or more runs we should pass on that team.

From the site:
Predicted Runs - This system calculates the number of runs the starting pitcher and bullpen is expected to give up

In addition to this I've also been tracking the teams expected to lose by 2 or more runs.

Today's teams expected to lose by 2+ are
Pittsburgh -5 (pass-agrees with PTPP)
White Sox -4
San Diego -2
San Francisco -2

Filtered out
Yankees -3 (L2)
Cubs -5 (IP 15)
Florida (L7)

**grilldog24** · 06-09-11, 05:22 PM

thanks ! i dont go back to the morning posts my bad lol

**ShivaBowl** · 06-10-11, 06:21 AM

Originally posted by staf

If a team is expected to lose by 2 or more runs. Basically I'm saying this is something worth tracking as a possible filter to add to the pt power plays. Here's what I'm doing: Today, Pittsburgh is a PT Power Play and is expected to give up 5 runs. Their opponent is expected to give up 0 runs, so Pittsburgh is expected to lose by 5 runs. I haven't tracked how a difference of only 1 would do as the site says to use a difference of 2 or more. Another thing I've been tracking since 5-12 is, the teams expected to lose by 2 or more runs are 61-47 +16.45 units. Passing on the 35 games agreeing with the PT Power Plays would improve it to 49-24 +26.28 units. It's too bad Sportrends doesn't have a database of these tables so we could properly back-test them.
Points Awarded:
ShivaBowl gave staf 50 SBR Point(s) for this post.

I’m covering for Losemyloot this week I will post the P/T and P/R run plays.
Also, I will be using Stafs formula will see how it works out?
Thanks Staf, I will be sending you a PM... I would like you to help out if you have the time.
Again thank you, nice work!
Shiva

**ShivaBowl** · 06-10-11, 06:27 AM

Originally posted by losemyloot

Staff is this kinda what you've been doing? (see paragraph below) I have been thinking about combining both the PT Power Plays and the PR Plays to come up with picks. Basically the two systems would be used to filter the plays of the other one. I was thinking that if it is a play in one of the systems it has to have the same lean in the other system (not necessarily be a pick in the other system just have the same lean on a game) I just found it odd that these two systems are displayed on the same page and contradict each other often. I am assuming that in situations where they do agree or at least slightly agree these might be good plays.

Lets give it a shot and see how it works out.
BOL

**ShivaBowl** · 06-10-11, 06:52 AM

Originally posted by staf

Another thing I've been tracking since 5-12 is, the teams expected to lose by 2 or more runs are 61-47 +16.45 units. Passing on the 35 games agreeing with the PT Power Plays would improve it to 49-24 +26.28 units.

Staf; have you been using the no play if >-130 filter, on the above result’s?
Thanks

**ShivaBowl** · 06-10-11, 06:53 AM

TPR system went 1-1 yesterday.
TEX –124 L
CIN –105 W
Start Date 05/01
46-49 –5.83u

H/A system went 2-0 yesterday.
ATL –115 W
SDP –123 W
Start Date 05/29
9-4 +2.45u

H/A Total Plays went 3-1 yesterday.
Start Date 06/01
14-10 +4.19u

Losemyloot P/T Power Plays 06/09
2-1 +0.64
PIT +105 L
MIN +114 W
CIN ½u –105 W
Start Date 05/01
73-90 –11.40 Units

Plays later on today.

**staf** · 06-10-11, 07:16 AM

Originally posted by ShivaBowl

Staf; have you been using the no play if >-130 filter, on the above result’s?
Thanks

I've been using -175 as the odds filter

**TheAntFather** · 06-10-11, 08:01 AM

Keep up the good work.

**Formulawiz** · 06-10-11, 08:07 AM

ML system went 1-2, -1.25 units
YTD 46-24, +15.6 units

Plays later today

**Formulawiz** · 06-10-11, 09:39 AM

Todays ML plays must be < -140

PIT, COL?, SD?, TB?, CWS

**rask7rask7** · 06-10-11, 10:24 AM

Good luck for today plays.

**BrewMaster** · 06-10-11, 01:11 PM

Guys I'm stuck in meetings all day so I won't be able to post SA plays until later this evening

**Tommygunn** · 06-10-11, 02:21 PM

Originally posted by BrewMaster

Guys I'm stuck in meetings all day so I won't be able to post SA plays until later this evening

Thanks Brew. I appreciate all of your guy's work (brew,houli,wiz,shiva,loose). If you can try and get them posted before 7 when the first games start that would be great.

BOL

**ShivaBowl** · 06-10-11, 04:07 PM

06/10/11
TPR System Plays
DET 1.8
CWS 1.0
CIN 1.0
TEX 2.0 no play MIN W/2

H/A System Plays
ATL, SDP, SFO

H/A Total Plays
SDP & WAS Over 6 –115
SFO & CIN Over 7 -110

P/T Power Plays
CHC R/L +1.5 –125
ARZ
MIN
COL 1/2U
CIN

**BrewMaster** · 06-10-11, 04:11 PM

09Jun11 Result: TBD
Record Official Start 15May11: TBD

Scientific Approach 10Jun11:

SEA, -127
PIT, -142
STL, -239
KC, -132
SF, -183

Filtered (TB, TOR, WAS, TEX)
System NO PLAY if >-150. Good Luck. Will update record when I can.

**Tommygunn** · 06-10-11, 04:41 PM

Originally posted by ShivaBowl

06/10/11
TPR System Plays
DET 1.8
CWS 1.0
CIN 1.0
TEX 2.0 no play MIN W/2

H/A System Plays
ATL, SDP, SFO

H/A Total Plays
SDP & WAS Over 6 –115
SFO & CIN Over -110

P/T Power Plays
CHC R/L +1.5 –125
ARZ
MIN
COL 1/2U
CIN

Hey Shiva SF & Cinn Over How Much? 7 ?

Thanks

**barts185** · 06-10-11, 05:12 PM

Haven't seen the Bullpen Projection System posted yet today, sorry if I missed it and this is confusing things.

Also, I haven't come up to speed on whatever staf is doing, this is just the normal system. I'm still having a lot of issues, but trying to help when I can.

June 10
Bullpen Projection System

Pittsburgh 1.92
Arizona 5.08
Milwaukee 3.26
Minnesota 1.47
Kansas City 3.32

filtered out

Philadelphia 2.28 np line / CUB w2
Houston 1.6 np ATL w2
Washington 1.57 np L2
Baltimore 1.21 np TAM W2 (both teams are on 3 game winning streak)
NY Yankees 6.58 np line close but too high / L2
Oakland 1.13 np L2 (or L10

)

Good Luck,
Bart

**rask7rask7** · 06-11-11, 05:27 AM

I like Scientific: 3-2 yesterday

**Formulawiz** · 06-11-11, 06:06 AM

ML system went 0-2, -2.3 units
YTD 46-26, +13.3 units

Plays later today

**HoulihansTX** · 06-11-11, 06:38 AM

Originally posted by HoulihansTX

Official start (May 15 - Current)
Overall
(73-64) +5.25Units

___________________
Added Filter: No Play -150 or higher.

June 9
Bullpen Projection System

Cincy 5.03 W (-105)
Atl 4.99 W (-115)
Houston 3.72 L (+105)
Philly 3.61 (No Play >-150)
Dodgers 2.96 L (+100)

March 26 to May 14
Overall
(68-52) +22.56 Units

Official start (May 15 - Current)
Overall
(75-66) +5.25Units
___________________
Added Filter: No Play -150 or higher.

June 10
Bullpen Projection System

Pittsburgh 1.92 L (-110)
Arizona 5.08 L (+130)
Milwaukee 3.26 W (-110)
Minnesota 1.47 L (+140)
Kansas City 3.32 W (+145)

filtered out

Philadelphia 2.28 np line / CUB w2
Houston 1.6 np ATL w2
Washington 1.57 np L2
Baltimore 1.21 np TAM W2 (both teams are on 3 game winning streak)
NY Yankees 6.58 np line close but too high / L2
Oakland 1.13 np L2 (or L10 )

Special thanks to Bart, for covering in my absence

**Formulawiz** · 06-11-11, 08:13 AM

Todays ML plays. Must be < -140

ARI, STL, COL?, SD, CWS

**HoulihansTX** · 06-11-11, 08:23 AM

Originally posted by HoulihansTX

Official start (May 15 - Current)
Overall
(75-66) +5.25Units

___________________
Added Filter: No Play -150 or higher.

June 10
Bullpen Projection System

Pittsburgh 1.92 L (-110)
Arizona 5.08 L (+130)
Milwaukee 3.26 W (-110)
Minnesota 1.47 L (+140)
Kansas City 3.32 W (+145)

Official start (May 15 - Current)
Overall
(77-69) +4.60Units
___________________
Added Filter: No Play -150 or higher.

June 11
Bullpen Projection System

Brew Crew 3.60
Minny 2.96
San Fran 1.84 (Watch the line)
Boston 1.49
San Diego 1.27

Yanks np >-150
Pitt np L2

**BrewMaster** · 06-11-11, 09:33 AM

10Jun11 Result: TBD
Record Official Start 15May11: TBD

Scientific Approach 11Jun11:

SEA, -181
OAK, -169
STL, -171
ARZ, -237
KC, -155

Filtered (TOR, TB, ATL)
System NO PLAY if >-150. Good Luck. Will update record when I can.

**BrewMaster** · 06-11-11, 09:35 AM

Thanks for the help Barts!

**ShivaBowl** · 06-11-11, 09:43 AM

TPR system went 0-3 yesterday.
Start Date 05/01
46-52 –9.41u

H/A system went 2-1 yesterday.
Start Date 05/29
11-5 +2.92u

H/A Total Plays went 0-2 yesterday.
Start Date 06/01
14-12 +2.05u

P/T Power Plays went 1-4 yesterday
Start Date 05/01
74-94 –15.15 Units

**Small Timer** · 06-11-11, 09:52 AM

Originally posted by HoulihansTX

Official start (May 15 - Current)
Overall
(77-69) +4.60Units
___________________
Added Filter: No Play -150 or higher.

June 11
Bullpen Projection System

Brew Crew 3.60
San Fran 1.84 (Watch the line)
Boston 1.49
San Diego 1.27

Yanks np >-150
Minny np L2
Pitt np L2

Welcome back Houli, Sportrend website has Minny only having lost one, though I do have reservations about playing them with their current lineup.

**HoulihansTX** · 06-11-11, 10:25 AM

Originally posted by Small Timer

Welcome back Houli, Sportrend website has Minny only having lost one, though I do have reservations about playing them with their current lineup.

Thanks. And Yes Minny sucks, but this guy Colby Lewis for the Rangers is trash also.

**ShivaBowl** · 06-11-11, 10:36 AM

06/11/11
TPR System Plays
TEX 1.9
DET 1.6
CIN 1.0

H/A System Plays
MLW 2 units
SFO
OAK
ARZ

H/A Total Plays
½ Unit plays today
TOR & BOS Over 9 –115
PHI & CHC Over 7.5 –120
SFO & CIN Over 6.5 –110
BAL & TAM Over 7.5 –125
PIT & NYM Over 8 –115
MLW & STL Over 7.5 –115
FLA & ARZ Over 7.5 –110
COL & LAD Over 9 -110

**Dollar Bin** · 06-11-11, 11:10 AM

Shiva-

According to Staf's post #810 and #812 the pr runs are the number of runs that pitcher is expected to give up. So, using his interpretation, the Chicago White Sox are predicted to give up 3 runs and the A's are only supposed to give up 1. Seems you are doing the opposite.

If you are interpreting it different why use his suggested filter? Wouldn't it be backwards?