[therber2]

Hello Ladies and Gents,

Some of you know me from here and there; I have received some requests to stick around. I'll use this OP to state guidelines. First off, no backstabbers, and troublemakers so if you know who you are, please don't make an appearance . Anyone else who wants to post their plays here with me, and help me out with my betting systems I am more than happy. If you are not sure if you are that person chances are you are most welcome here. Also, I don't care what other thread you are posting in. Just please, no bullshit here or preaching.

Onto business. Disclaimer: What I normally like to do is run my plays at SBR as experiments. These are recreational bets that have a great track record of making you money if you choose to go with them. There isn't a solid money management system here (although I do use one particular method if anyone needs assistance), so you may (and I know this sounds odd) want to cherrypick or take the plays for what they are worth. I have a betting system in the accounts where I am playing the more consistent plays, and the ones here are only meant to enhance my picks. For me this is record keeping and experimentation. If the record/units earned here goes south, it happens; if the dry runs succeed I'll know that something is being done right.

There are some folks that like to tell you to follow their picks, all of them or none at all; no cherry picking. Their picks; however, are given at inconvenient times and were placed by the provider at a specific time where the line was much different, and the fact is the play could be a dud by the time it has been posted. Also no silly family secrets here or anything like that. This thread, if I can maintain it, is meant to be informative for everyone. If you have questions, ask. Not trying to show off or raise my ego from a bunch of newbs following me. If I don't respond to a question or comment because I missed the post my email is therber2@gmail.com or PM me, and I appologize in advance. I'd like to see quality posters here. This may include young people or old; I do not discriminate in this area like some ignorant people here do. That said, if you are new to betting I will try my best to help you out, but NEVER come to me saying that I lost you all of your money. Play at your own risk, and let's have some fun.

Will post plays for Monday soon.

-therber2

PS. The title of this thread means that most of the time you are going to be seeing a larger card as what I post is experimental. Word to the wise: this is not normally a way you would want to bet. Record stands current as of April 6th in the signature. Most of you that are going to be viewing this thread have seen where I post normally at SBR or you have seen my free pick blog. Points are always welcome here, and if received will be put towards a good cause of my choosing.

[therber2]

TB Rays +1.5 -125 (1 unit)
BOS/TB u9 -130 (3 units)
lean on the Nats for value but no play
Chicago Cubs -113 (1 unit)
CHI/NYM u8.5 -105 (1 unit)
STL Cardinals -120 (1 unit)
STL/ARI u9.5 EV (2 units)
SFO Giants -122 (3 units)
Royals -103 (2 units)
KC/TOR o9 -120 (1 unit)
Detroit Tigers +1.5 -125 (2 units)
Baltimore O's +1.5 -150 (1 unit)
Baltimore O's +146 (2 units) Thought they were false dogs. Not sure now so I am striking the play.
BAL/SEA u8 +101 (2 units)

Good luck to all who chose to follow any of these.

[2daBank]

nice intro, actually a thread i think is worth coming to
really like the tb/sox under and the stl/zona under as well......gl

[therber2]

nice intro, actually a thread i think is worth coming to
really like the tb/sox under and the stl/zona under as well......gl

Welcome 2daBank. Thanks for the comments on those games. Don't have money placed on anythings yet so I SHOULD tell you. Plays are subject to change before gametime. I would say, if you are really liking one bring it up in the thread. If you guys can contribute, and I see solid results (with reasons as to why you are playing the team or total), I take things into consideration.

If people post I don't care if you get your posts in late or whatever just try to keep a record so we can see how you are doing. If someone is cold we'll try to figure out why or if someone is hot, what are they doing?

[therber2]

Turns out the +1.5 wasn't needed. Just did it because there was just a bit heavier than a lean on TB, and they were big dogs. Close on the total; we'll get em next time.

[therber2]

TB Rays +1.5 -125 (1 unit)
BOS/TB u9 -130 (3 units)
lean on the Nats for value but no play
Chicago Cubs -113 (1 unit)
CHI/NYM u8.5 -105 (1 unit)
STL Cardinals -120 (1 unit)
STL/ARI u9.5 EV (2 units)
SFO Giants -122 (3 units)
Royals -103 (2 units)
KC/TOR o9 -120 (1 unit) PUSH
Detroit Tigers +1.5 -125 (2 units)
Baltimore O's +1.5 -150 (1 unit)
Baltimore O's +146 (2 units) Thought they were false dogs. Not sure now so I am striking the play.
BAL/SEA u8 +101 (2 units)

Good luck to all who chose to follow any of these.

.....

[therber2]

4-5-1 -5.9 units

[therber2]

Minnesota Twins -146 (4 units)
Twins -1.5 135 (1 unit)
Cincinnati Reds +120 (5 units)
Cubs -105 (1 unit)
LAA -129 (.5 units)

[therber2]

TOR B'Jays -140 (1 unit)
KC/TOR o9 -110 (1 unit)

[therber2]

TEX/BOS u9.5 -120 (1 unit)
DET/LAA o9 +104
SFO Giants -120 (5 units)

[therber2]

Just posted this in the blog get it while its hot.

3rd Period DET Wings o1
SFO Giants ML

+225 (1 unit)

and

3rd Period DET -200
SFO Giants ML

+185 (1 unit)

Take them both small equal units.

Take:

DET/PNX o1.5 3rd period (3 units)

**Side note: Don't normally do parlays. Tread lightly. Glad the three bets turned out cash positive though.

[sammy3]

B.O.L.

[therber2]

Minnesota Twins -146 (4 units)
Twins -1.5 135 (1 unit)
Cincinnati Reds +120 (5 units)
Cubs -105 (1 unit)
LAA -129 (.5 units)

TOR B'Jays -140 (1 unit)
KC/TOR o9 -110 (1 unit)

TEX/BOS u9.5 -120 (1 unit)
DET/LAA o9 +104
SFO Giants -120 (5 units)

Just posted this in the blog get it while its hot.

3rd Period DET Wings o1
SFO Giants ML

+225 (1 unit)

and

3rd Period DET -200
SFO Giants ML

+185 (1 unit)

Take them both small equal units.

Take:

DET/PNX o1.5 3rd period (3 units)

pending

[therber2]

7-6 +5.54 units For today. Join us tomorrow. Hope some of you cashed.

[therber2]

REDs/LOS o8.5 -120 (3 units)
BOS -180 (3 units) **
Padres -125 (1 unit)
Col Rockies -110 (1 unit)
Pirates +1.5 -140 (1 unit)
PIT/MIL o8 -115 (1 unit)
ATL +1.5 -125 (1 unit)
CHI/NYM u8.5 -105 (1 unit)
STL/ARI u9 -110 (1 unit)
Minn -175 (1 unit)
OAK +130 (2 units) **
DET +156 (1 unit)
Det +1.5 -125 (2 units)
BALti +1.5 -125 (1 unit)

...the big card

I will try to condense this tomorrow as more information rolls in. For now, too tired to continue work. If anyone has some thoughts on these plays please share.

Plays with ** indicate a team with good recent run production at home.

[therber2]

REDs/LOS o8.5 -120 (3 units)
BOS -180 (3 units) **
Padres -125 (1 unit)
Col Rockies -110 (1 unit)
Pirates +1.5 -140 (1 unit)
PIT/MIL o8 -115 (1 unit) PUSH
ATL +1.5 -125 (1 unit)
CHI/NYM u8.5 -105 (1 unit)
STL/ARI u9 -110 (1 unit)
Minn -175 (1 unit)
OAK +130 (2 units) **
DET +156 (1 unit)
Det +1.5 -125 (2 units)
[B]BALti +1.5 -125 (1 unit)[/B]

...the big card

I will try to condense this tomorrow as more information rolls in. For now, too tired to continue work. If anyone has some thoughts on these plays please share.

Plays with ** indicate a team with good recent run production at home.

Not a bad day. Here is something I got in an email this morning from the folks at Statfox. Should prove a bit a useful later. The reason I am putting this here is because I found myself in complete agreement with statfox on one thing: " StatFox ranks bullpen performance at the top of its list in terms of handicapping importance. With that in mind, here's another powerful baseball betting system from StatFox that you can put to use this season:

* Play Against - Road underdogs with a money line of +100 to +150 - AL team with a low on-base percentage (<=.320) with a poor bullpen whose WHIP is 1.550 or worse on the season, against a team with a good bullpen (WHIP <=1.350), (36-7 over the last 5 seasons.) (83.7%, +27.4 units. Rating=4*) The situation's record this season is: (1-0 +1 units)."

[therber2]

6-7-1 +2.41

Note to self and anyone interested:
"* Play On - Road teams vs. the money line (DENVER) - off an upset loss as a home favorite, extremely well rested team - playing 3 or less games in 10 days (52-32 since 1996.) (61.9%, +48.3 units. Rating=4*) The situation's record this season is: (7-2 +5 units)."
(In same promo email).

I am going to consider this bet. My buddy was just telling me the other day how much he likes this bet and another one. Every once in a while you might see some plays from other sports if they are good enough. FYI

[Just Enough]

good to see you'll be around therbs. GL this season bro.

[darkenergy]

Not a bad day. Here is something I got in an email this morning from the folks at Statfox. Should prove a bit a useful later. The reason I am putting this here is because I found myself in complete agreement with statfox on one thing: " StatFox ranks bullpen performance at the top of its list in terms of handicapping importance. With that in mind, here's another powerful baseball betting system from StatFox that you can put to use this season: * Play Against - Road underdogs with a money line of +100 to +150 - AL team with a low on-base percentage (<=.320) with a poor bullpen whose WHIP is 1.550 or worse on the season, against a team with a good bullpen (WHIP <=1.350), (36-7 over the last 5 seasons.) (83.7%, +27.4 units. Rating=4*) The situation's record this season is: (1-0 +1 units)."

I was originally liking Cleveland Indians the most today due to divisional rivalry, and Cleveland's unpredictable, thinking they can pull out an upset today against hottie Twins. But, I think I lay it off.
Thanks therber2 for posting this tips.
BOL today

[therber2]

good to see you'll be around therbs. GL this season bro.

Hey JE,

Thanks for stopping by; feel free to post your plays. You can carry over your record from wherever if you want to. I know that you are a good capper, and I am wanting to come up with more picks.

My process usually goes like this: intense capping over night with an early big card, and then I scope out what some of my slick guys are on, and edit the card. This is a varible, but always smaller adjustment unless there is consensus.
Others who I am looking to join would be shoebox, Dexter, Foghorn (who is due for a grandslam comeback), oda11 (just cause I like him...oh and your cappings not bad either), of course Solo if he is willing to pop in and out. Sorry if I forgot anyone; I have too many deadlines for work now, and don't want to half ass a card for you guys today. However, I hope you guys consider what I just wrote above.

A couple of strong leans for today are:
Rockies (Jimenez)
Tigers (Verlander)

I'd probably be putting more weight on Rockies, but about equal.

[therber2]

I was originally liking Cleveland Indians the most today due to divisional rivalry, and Cleveland's unpredictable, thinking they can pull out an upset today against hottie Twins. But, I think I lay it off.
Thanks therber2 for posting this tips.
BOL today

No problem DE, like I said before this service helps me out as much as it does you guys once things get rolling. It is SOO good to breath easy here, and not have people crawling all over my back. This is MY thread now, and I want to help you all out no charge; we work together brutha.

I agree with Cleveland; haven't checked the line, but I'll bet they are dogs maybe even bigger dogs somewhere like +150. If so Cleveland is VALUE Minn is hot, and Cleveland is getting hot. This is a good situation to take a bet on +1.5 Cleveland, and a little on that dog line. Don't worry if you lose these little bets. It is worth the risk. You take controlled risks, and you'll be fine.

[darkenergy]

Like I say in other thread, I like this play the most, but after saw your criteria I back off a bit. But still probably throw out .25x for a shake of pride
BTW, Indians +184, RL-125.

I also lean Pitt today, but after all R. Wolf only loss to Pitt 1 in last 8 matches

[oda11]

I like you as well

BOL this season therber!

[darkenergy]

'sup oda
Who are you on today bro?

[oda11]

Sup DE, didn't cap anything, busy at work, just tailing today, BOL!

[saints7011]

just found your thread , BOL this season...

[therber2]

This is something I run all the time in the background. This and bullpen and slugging rates produces my picks along with miscelaneous factors that you should feel free to inquire about. Please take this seriously, it is worth gold and my gift to you.

Calling Jerseyshop, this one is especially for you. Credit where credit is due; Jersey is the brains around here, and never ceases to impress me. He is running a new study this season that should be killer. Please check out his thread.

Also, I am looking for an assistant to track something for me and keep it in a shared google doc excel sheet or post it here daily. In exchange you will have access to what I am posting here. Looking for someone dedicated, hardworking, and friendly.

What needs to be tracked is this: (same format as the other sheet attached here)
%= #innings with runs allowed / innings played

Do this for each team, and I will need you to go back a bit to April 4th. Create a daily roster, and we'll look at each other's results and come up with a good way to correlate these two things.

For example, team high on run production list and low on give up innings = good play; A great starting point. This should be gold for totals as well.

Cheers fellas!

[therber2]

Like I say in other thread, I like this play the most, but after saw your criteria I back off a bit. But still probably throw out .25x for a shake of pride
BTW, Indians +184, RL-125.

I also lean Pitt today, but after all R. Wolf only loss to Pitt 1 in last 8 matches

See, told you they'd be big dogs. Actually this brings up a great thought:

Some of you guys should try this: look over the card for the day but DO NOT look at the lines. Choose the teams you like and jot down a small range where you think the line will be. Where the line falls based on you expectation can tell you so very much

I'd like to take the Indians RL. Let me look into it more. For a dog that big I think the RL should be cheaper, but the books must see the value that I am seeing. Think the way they do and you can beat them.

[therber2]

I like you as well

BOL this season therber!

Could we bring ol' honey buns here to SBR?

[therber2]

just found your thread , BOL this season...

Hi Saints,

I've decided that the focus for the location of my picks will be here at SBR, and I will maintain the blog on the side. They've always been good to me here at SBR, and just because one guy made his own mistakes and wants to take them out on me doesn't mean I should leave a good place. Fact is, he does represent a large part of SBR, but maybe that is because options are limited. Who knows?

Saints, go ahead and post the plays that you like here, and you can carry over your record from whereever you want. As previously stated, I am looking for more

-Tom

[JerseyShop101]

Therber2,

Looks and sounds great!

[JerseyShop101]

See, told you they'd be big dogs. Actually this brings up a great thought:

Some of you guys should try this: look over the card for the day but DO NOT look at the lines. Choose the teams you like and jot down a small range where you think the line will be. Where the line falls based on you expectation can tell you so very much

I'd like to take the Indians RL. Let me look into it more. For a dog that big I think the RL should be cheaper, but the books must see the value that I am seeing. Think the way they do and you can beat them.

That is actually great advice. I think everybody has fell into that category in the beginning of their gambling days, of liking a team, but seeing the odds sways you off the game or WORSE- it completely changes your mind and you bet the opposite, only to have your original team you handicapped win outright. Been there, done that. Especially at the racetrack.

[therber2]

That is actually great advice. I think everybody has fell into that category in the beginning of their gambling days, of liking a team, but seeing the odds sways you off the game or WORSE- it completely changes your mind and you bet the opposite, only to have your original team you handicapped win outright. Been there, done that. Especially at the racetrack.

Yeah, I think doing this (guessing the line and the checking) can save you a lot of grief. If you guess what the line should be and it is unfavorable however you judge that then maybe a NO PLAY is in order.

Jersey thanks for stopping by. Your thoughts are always welcome!

[therber2]

Don't have time now for the big card, but I'll leave you with one play that I really like:

Dodgers -110 (5 units)
Indians +1.5 -120 (1 units)
PIT/MIL YES (1 unit)
Detroit -105 (3 units)

Lean: I think Verlander will cleanup today, but haven't looked into it much.
Edit: Yes, he will. :-) Give it a decent sized bet folks.

[therber2]

Like I say in other thread, I like this play the most, but after saw your criteria I back off a bit. But still probably throw out .25x for a shake of pride
BTW, Indians +184, RL-125.

I also lean Pitt today, but after all R. Wolf only loss to Pitt 1 in last 8 matches

Glad you pointed out those Indians to me today. The numbers all checked, and I went with my hunch on these boys, and....$$$

I am looking into Detroit right now. I am a big fan of Verlander especially when he is in the cleanup a series (against Angels). Stay tuned...I'll let you know the verdict.