Betting Favorites - Season Thread

[holygrail3]

another stat you should know is that 27.8% of games are 1 run games.

So if you predict 75% winners, 72.2% of that is 54.1%. covering RL odds at 54.1% is way more than plus 40 units through July.

hell, i'm up 8 units in 10 days, on my favs ats plays. average line has been +120. ML average has been -170. And i never play a RL with worse than (-110) odds.

take these favs ats, or buy 1.0 lines on each of them. and collect more units by seasons end.

plenty of articles through googling buying a 1.0 runline in MLB. it's a formula to get a free amount on the runline, but breaking even when they win by 1.

good luck and i'll keep my eye on it.

[Panekkkk]

another stat you should know is that 27.8% of games are 1 run games.

So if you predict 75% winners, 72.2% of that is 54.1%. covering RL odds at 54.1% is way more than plus 40 units through July.

hell, i'm up 8 units in 10 days, on my favs ats plays. average line has been +120. ML average has been -170. And i never play a RL with worse than (-110) odds.

take these favs ats, or buy 1.0 lines on each of them. and collect more units by seasons end.

plenty of articles through googling buying a 1.0 runline in MLB. it's a formula to get a free amount on the runline, but breaking even when they win by 1.

good luck and i'll keep my eye on it.

Thanks for the info grail

You have to remember that these are home teams only, which cover the RL fewer times on average than road teams (because the bottom of the ninth is scratched when a home team wins in regulation time and the sudden-death nature of overtimes for home teams). Home teams since 2004 have covered the RL in wins 68.8% of the time, meaning that 31.2% are 1-run games. Not much of a discrepancy but still something to consider.

If we assume 70% win rate * 0.688 = 0.4816. The good thing is that RL's for home teams are always + money, and are average +120 for my home games so far which yields profit even if we assume the average 68.8% home game RL win percentage.

The thing is that this system uses run predictions, and is currently hitting at RL clip of 78.9% on wins, well above the average.

Also, Pinnacle has -1 lines so no need for a calculator .

I'm still trying to think of the best way to play this since I do predict that home teams will continue to hit near 70% winners (last year, although my record keeping was much worse, home teams were definitely hitting around 70%).

Also keep in mind that there are very few plays, it averages to less than 1 per day which is why I need to maximize profit on each play.

Any suggestions on how I should bet these then? I was going to continue ML, RL and opponent TT under varying units according to other filters.

For the best ROI though I could probably just hit the -1 line instead of ML. That would also reduce big losing days.

Suggestions?

[holygrail3]

i'm very anti anything laying -170 odds. i try not to go beyond -120, -125 max.

good to know, i didn't split up the 1 run game study, just overall.

i would def say that the under team total seems to be the best play overall. usually around -110 sometimes better sometimes worse.

i'm not telling you to change, plus units is plus units no matter how you got there.

[venture]

So if your playing a road fav you should take the -1rl, no matter what?

[holygrail3]

panekk might have kept more stats on this than me, but through early May - all roads favs less than -200 were:

93-78 SU
77-94 ATS

i do not have it broken down any other way. we were just calculating win% and ATS %.

did you know that home dogs (-150) to (-199) are 31-28 (+1.5). Usually at EV or +110.

Conversely, the small favs below (-149) were 63-49 ATS, very plus money. avg line +145.

[Panekkkk]

So if your playing a road fav you should take the -1rl, no matter what?

No, all this discussion refers to home teams only. I'm not sure why road teams are performing so poorly. The only time I'll play a road team for this system is if their opponent has lost their last 3 or more.

[Panekkkk]

i'm very anti anything laying -170 odds. i try not to go beyond -120, -125 max.

good to know, i didn't split up the 1 run game study, just overall.

i would def say that the under team total seems to be the best play overall. usually around -110 sometimes better sometimes worse.

i'm not telling you to change, plus units is plus units no matter how you got there.

The cutoff for this system is -164 (anything beyond is a no-play). But the average line is -146.

[holygrail3]

ok, then i like it much more.

then if they are only -145 or less. i would def suggest 1 unit ML, 1 unit RL, 1 unit dog under. i'm not sure of your varying amounts but i really try to avoid that.

you know for sure that at the worst you will go =31.2% of 70 is 48.2%. 48.2% on avg plus +120,+125 line is profitable. Over 100 plays at 48.2% with an avg of +120 (which is extremely low avg if your cutoff is -145, FLA is -153 right now, and +120.)

thats 6.0 units at a very low 1.2 units per win. over 100 plays. will add some variance though.

we'll probably come to the same team total unders, since the team your going against has been losing and they probably aren't averaging many runs in their recent games.

[Panekkkk]

Thanks for all the insight.

Just to clarify, the average line is -146 while the cutoff is -164.

As I think you've pointed out, the opponents team total under is linked to their performance. I think 4 of the 11 home team losses went under the opponent TT and 1 pushed.

I've identified a few filters that really improve the results so I will be varying units but very selectively.

Ill probably go 2 units ML, 1 RL, 1 TT under except for varied units

I really don't have time to calculate the ROI for all the dif strategies

[Panekkkk]

June 2, 2010

2* Mariners -146

That's it for today. No RL or TT for this one.

GL

STD
Home ML: 14-7 for +6.84 units
Home RL: 2-1 +2.58 units
Road ML: 4-4 for -1.58 units
Road RL: 0-1 -0.5 units
Parlays: 2-1 +1.64 units
Overall: +8.98 units

[Panekkkk]

June 2, 2010

2* Mariners -146

That's it for today. No RL or TT for this one.

GL

Opponent team total under ended up hitting as well

STD
Home ML: 15-7 for +8.84 units
Home RL: 2-1 +2.58 units
Road ML: 4-4 for -1.58 units
Road RL: 0-1 -0.5 units
Parlays: 2-1 +1.64 units
Overall: +10.98 units

[Panekkkk]

2* Dodgers -152

Line has moved to -164 since I ran the #'s which greatly reduces win%. With Chipper Jones and Saito out though I'm gonna roll with it.

[Panekkkk]

2* Dodgers -152

Line has moved to -164 since I ran the #'s which greatly reduces win%. With Chipper Jones and Saito out though I'm gonna roll with it.

On a roll right now . 16-7 since starting thread, 39-11 overall (home teams). Only playing home teams now

STD
Home ML: 16-7 for +10.84 units
Home RL: 2-1 +2.58 units
Road ML: 4-4 for -1.58 units
Road RL: 0-1 -0.5 units
Parlays: 2-1 +1.64 units
Overall: +15.06 units

[Panekkkk]

Update:

White Sox were a home play yesterday, but I wasn't feeling it, and they lost! Pretty happy with that considering the few # of losses. White Sox qualify again today but I'm holding off. Even if they win I'm happy to have screened one loss. Buerhle has terrible #'s versus Indian batters and the White Sox just can't hit.

One road team today that I'll play, not as an official system play but here it is:

2* Red Sox ML
1* Red Sox RL
1* Baltimore TT under

Road teams that qualify in this scenario (vs. opponents on a 3-game or more losing streak) are 10-4. The RL has hit 9 out of those 10 wins and opponent's team total under is an amazing 12 of 14!!! If you hate laying juice I suggest just betting the TT under and Red Sox RL.

I'm also heavy on Rockies and Cardinals. If you're worried about the juice parlay ML 2 units and parlay RL 1 unit. Can't see either of these teams losing and have great system trends pointing towards both. Got a huge chunk of my bankroll riding on today so I'm really hoping for a sweep.

GL all

STD
Home ML: 16-7 for +10.84 units
Home RL: 2-1 +2.58 units
Road ML: 4-4 for -1.58 units
Road RL: 0-1 -0.5 units
Parlays: 2-1 +1.64 units
Overall: +15.06 units

[holygrail3]

nothing the last 2 days panekk?

[Panekkkk]

Well Sunday day was a day of death!!! Lost big on all plays and of 4 road plays to play, I chose Boston, who lost. The other three won. No more road plays. No home plays the last few days. Only one today. The # of plays will pick up shortly as better teams begin playing at home.

June 9th, 2010

One play today:

3* Washington -163
1.5* Washington RL +129
1.5* Pit TT Under

System plays meeting this criteria are 12-2, all 12 covering the RL, and 10 of 12 covering the opponent TT under! Let's hope this continues.

STD
Home ML: 16-7 for +10.84 units
Home RL: 2-1 +2.58 units
Road ML: 4-4 for -1.58 units
Road RL: 0-1 -0.5 units
Parlays: 2-1 +1.64 units
Overall: +15.06 units

[Panekkkk]

I do hate betting against new pitchers so I might lessen the unit count. Going to research Pirates' starter since I know NOTHING about him. Pirates also hit Lannan quite well. The thing is that this system is all about lines, so much of that is taken care of. With the Pirates getting absolutely DOMINATED yesterady, and now on a three-game losing streak, it's quite likely that they're bats will fall silent. Lannan's pitched well enough lately.

FYI, the Pirates are 3-16 when on a losing streak of 3 and playing on the road. The under is an amazing 3-13-2 in those games!

[Panekkkk]

I'm also thinking of parlaying Yanks ML and Rangers ML. I really can't see either of those teams losing and have strong trends for both.

[Panekkkk]

nothing the last 2 days panekk?

It's been quiet lately. White Sox met the home team system but I avoided both games, and they split 1-1 (which was great because I avoided some units lost)! Nothing since then. One play today (above).

[Panekkkk]

Lincoln actually has decent #'s for the Pirates. Strasburg throws first game for Nats and now Pirates throw a rookie right back at them!

[Panekkkk]

Touted hitting prospect being called up for the Pirates as well.

[Panekkkk]

Well Sunday day was a day of death!!! Lost big on all plays and of 4 road plays to play, I chose Boston, who lost. The other three won. No more road plays. No home plays the last few days. Only one today. The # of plays will pick up shortly as better teams begin playing at home.

June 9th, 2010

One play today:

3* Washington -163
1.5* Washington RL +129
1.5* Pit TT Under

System plays meeting this criteria are 12-2, all 12 covering the RL, and 10 of 12 covering the opponent TT under! Let's hope this continues.

STD
Home ML: 16-7 for +10.84 units
Home RL: 2-1 +2.58 units
Road ML: 4-4 for -1.58 units
Road RL: 0-1 -0.5 units
Parlays: 2-1 +1.64 units
Overall: +15.06 units

Okay, line has dropped 20 points and corrected itself. No longer meets system. NO PLAY. Kinda wanted some action

[Panekkkk]

Still might throw some on Washington for fun, considering the Pirates woeful road record when on a 3-game losing streak. That alone is enough to sell me for some small action. No system play though.

[EXhoosier10]

Touted hitting prospect being called up for the Pirates as well.

Are we talking about Pedro Alvarez? I can't find anything for who the callups will be for Pitt today...

EDIT: Just kidding, Jose Tabata is the one they're calling up

[Dwell]

Are we talking about Pedro Alvarez? I can't find anything for who the callups will be for Pitt today... EDIT: Just kidding, Jose Tabata is the one they're calling up

No, his name be Jose Tabata. More of a speed guy.

[holygrail3]

we have Washington projected to win by 0.63 runs.

So far Favorites projected to win by 0.5 - 1.0 runs are only (24-20 SU).

On top of that, they were 15-19 SU, and have gone on a tear the last few days.

GL on Lannan. He scares me here.

Saying that, Pittsburgh is the worst statistical team in just about every category in MLB this year.

only 3.26 runs per game
allow 5.60 runs per game
.236 team average
6.2 runs per game allowed on the road

the bullpen has actually pitched pretty well after those Milwaukee blowouts early and gotten back into the middle of the pack, ranking by WHIP.

[Panekkkk]

Thanks grail!

The line took a huge dive which cancelled the play when I reran the #'s. Won't be touching Washington but it'll be interesting to see what happens.

I rarely ever rerun the system but I'm wondering if I should start tracking the #'s prior to gametime. The thing is, if it ain't broke, why fix it? The Rays actually would qualify now if I were to rerun the #'s. Generally I hold off because public tends to have much more of an influence later to gametime.

Home teams last year were 34-7 (backchecked data from last year using current criteria) from June to August when I began this.

[Panekkkk]

Exactly, it's tough to NOT bet against a team that's 3-16 on the road when on a losing streak of 3 since 2008. If they win, it'll be a 2-1, 3-2 kind of game. I honestly doubt they'll win now.

[holygrail3]

i know what you're saying. We have a NCAA hoops system that is 100% based on the $$$ % on each line. If certain lines match to our research they qualify.

We learned quickly to have a cutoff of about 5-5:30 EST. The squares come home from work and quick get their bets in and skew the real betting %. All on the favorites ML and spread.

You should def have a cutoff time for however your coming to your plays.

[holygrail3]

wait till they post the lineups and make sure C.Guzman isn't playing right field....

[Panekkkk]

Yeah, I generally run the #s between 10 and 11 am. Seems to work best. As you say, after a certain time, lines get hammered! Just wish there was a few more plays. Getting bored over here lol!

[LostBankroll]

Alot of good shit in here. I will be attending tonights game in DC. BOL on your plays.

[Panekkkk]

Well, both WSH and TB won and covered the RL. Sadly, I bet neither and instead lost on the Giants TT.

[Panekkkk]

Two HOME team plays for today:

3 * Nationals ML (waiting for line to drop on this one before placing)
1.5 * Nationals RL
1.5* Pirates TT U

1* Rockies ML
1* Rockies RL
1* Astros TT U

STD
Home ML: 16-7 for +10.84 units
Home RL: 2-1 +2.58 units
Parlays: 2-1 +1.64 units
Overall: +15.06 units

Have a feeling that these might split but I'm hoping for the best!

[Panekkkk]

Getting screwed on errors early