Now that we are into May I will start posting my "Betting Favorites" system. As the name suggests, this system ONLY bets favorites. I have been working hard to develop filters to keep this system hitting near 70% meaning that it is profitable over the long term. At most, there may be 3-4 plays a day, but there are often none. This system is meant to produce a nice return over the long-term.
I started this last year as well, but have since continued to refine the filters: http://forum.sbrforum.com/baseball-h...al-system.html. The core of the system picks the plays, these additional live filters shape the plays the system picks.
"Live" Rules/Filters
1. Exclude favorites of -165 or greater (in regards to the "reference line" only -- this will not affect any plays once I have posted them even if the line moves past -165 to -170 for example)
2. Exclude games in which the closing line is 10 cents or more in the opposite direction according to Pinnacle
3. Home teams = 2 units
4. Road teams = 1 unit
5. I will soon begin parlaying these games as well since that too has proven profitable. I will only begin this once I am satisfied with my filters (need more data to confirm)
In regards to Rule #2, I will post my plays every morning. The line posted will be the "reference" line. If near closing time, the line has moved 10 cents or more in the opposite direction of the reference line, according to Pinnacle, that game is no longer a play. This means that plays will be finalized within 5-30 minutes prior to game time. I may not always be at the computer to post "FINAL" plays so if you choose to tail, the onus is on you to watch the line prior to game time. Waiting to bet does not seem to affect the road teams, since the line has moved a sum of +3 in the opposite direction, whereas the line has moved a sum of -84 cents for home teams.
YTD:
Home teams 19-2
Road teams 11-3
There is some bias in the road teams data since I have used the last month to develop additional filters that have given those results. No new filters have been added to the home teams, and the result is really astonishing so I expect a few losses shortly to bring the average back down.
Tail at your own risk, and be cautious of the road plays for now, since those filters are still in development. GL all, I hope to have around 70+ units by the end of July (August seemed too unpredictable last year).
GL
I started this last year as well, but have since continued to refine the filters: http://forum.sbrforum.com/baseball-h...al-system.html. The core of the system picks the plays, these additional live filters shape the plays the system picks.
"Live" Rules/Filters
1. Exclude favorites of -165 or greater (in regards to the "reference line" only -- this will not affect any plays once I have posted them even if the line moves past -165 to -170 for example)
2. Exclude games in which the closing line is 10 cents or more in the opposite direction according to Pinnacle
3. Home teams = 2 units
4. Road teams = 1 unit
5. I will soon begin parlaying these games as well since that too has proven profitable. I will only begin this once I am satisfied with my filters (need more data to confirm)
In regards to Rule #2, I will post my plays every morning. The line posted will be the "reference" line. If near closing time, the line has moved 10 cents or more in the opposite direction of the reference line, according to Pinnacle, that game is no longer a play. This means that plays will be finalized within 5-30 minutes prior to game time. I may not always be at the computer to post "FINAL" plays so if you choose to tail, the onus is on you to watch the line prior to game time. Waiting to bet does not seem to affect the road teams, since the line has moved a sum of +3 in the opposite direction, whereas the line has moved a sum of -84 cents for home teams.
YTD:
Home teams 19-2
Road teams 11-3
There is some bias in the road teams data since I have used the last month to develop additional filters that have given those results. No new filters have been added to the home teams, and the result is really astonishing so I expect a few losses shortly to bring the average back down.
Tail at your own risk, and be cautious of the road plays for now, since those filters are still in development. GL all, I hope to have around 70+ units by the end of July (August seemed too unpredictable last year).
GL
B2B errors plates another Indian. Looking like it might just be one of those games. First 4 Indian runs all came on 2 outs with a few infield singles.
What you're doing will provide positive results for the season. Good choice of filters. Will make it a point to drop/pop in to see how things are going. 
