Betting Favorites - Season Thread

[GGPLAYER]

Orioles getting lots of men on but two double plays in 2 innings is not the way to start

Just had the bases loaded in the 4th but NYY got out with little damage. Birds are putting a lot of guys on the pads. Still a chance. By the way go Minny!

[Panekkkk]

Yeah, Baltimore game is done. They had a chance to get to Petite early which probably would have changed the outcome. I hit 3 big dogs earlier in the season that met the same trend as this Baltimore game so I was a little skeptical to see it hit 4 in a row! Shoulda held off :P

[Panekkkk]

Avila HR ... Second of the game. Nailbiting time.

All 4 Tigers runs on HR. Seriously... Close it out!

[Panekkkk]

NICE! Game over.

[GGPLAYER]

NICE! Game over.

Man I was sweating it out there. Did you make Tex a play...I was too late and missed it.

[Panekkkk]

Yeah I took Tex and took the under on a separate system play, but Oakland out to a 2 nothing start will make it tough for both to cash. Good thing is that if Tex loses the under might cash so I may push. Still looking to win both :P

[Panekkkk]

YES!!! Baltimore covers!

[GGPLAYER]

YES!!! Baltimore covers!

yes two homers in the 9th. Tailed you on that one but did not do the ML play.

[Panekkkk]

May 5th

POTENTIAL PLAYS

HOME:

2* Twins -150
2* Red Sox -162

ROAD:

1* Rangers -128
1* Braves -145

Remember, if line near closing is 10 cents or more in the opposite direction = NO PLAY. Otherwise, all are a go. I'm not so confident about the Red Sox pick since it's right near the cut-point of -165. But, I can't go against the system now.

STD

Home: 0-0 for 0 units
Road: 2-1 for +0.47 units

1 down :P

[Panekkkk]

yes two homers in the 9th. Tailed you on that one but did not do the ML play.

Nice one! They were flirting with that 2-run cushion but finally crossed it. If they could pull out the win ... Well, that's asking too much.

[Panekkkk]

Don't know why they didn't pinch-hit Montanez... the guy is terrible.

[NBAStats]

Through 5 innings the Rangers have 7 baserunners to 6 for Oakland, but trail 3-0. Not a bad play by any means, just shitty results so far. For the Twins though.

[jolmscheid]

Hey Panekkk...this looks really promising!

[jolmscheid]

I will definitely be tailing you on your picks my man!

[jolmscheid]

BTW....I was AT the Twins Game at Target Field! It was a nailbiter...I wish the weather woulda been a bit better though...Ah well

[Panekkkk]

Looks like the Rangers are done. I pushed with the under but I'm still questioning these road games. Hopefully Boston and Atlanta can get us a 3-1 night!

[Panekkkk]

Adding a PERSONAL PLAY for thread followers. This is not part of the Betting Favorites system so play at your own risk

1.5* Orioles +2.5 -140
0.75* Orioles ML +255

This is a system play that has already cashed 3 big dogs this season (which incidentally makes it a bit less likely that this will cash today). But because it's a system play I have to play it. A little hint behind the play: Teams don't like losing 3 games in a row as large dogs in the same series.

Nice comeback for the O's to add some units.

[Panekkkk]

Atlanta booked. Ortiz in the lineup causing Boston line to drop a little.

[NBAStats]

Can market agreement price out one of your plays? For example you liked a team at -115 and the market agreed with you so much it moved to -155. Are there cases when it becomes a no play for you due to a huge price change?

[Panekkkk]

Can market agreement price out one of your plays? For example you liked a team at -115 and the market agreed with you so much it moved to -155. Are there cases when it becomes a no play for you due to a huge price change?

No, if it moves in that direction it will not price me out. At least not for home teams. Maybe when I get some more data I'll be able to say that for sure for road teams but right now, steady as she goes.

[Panekkkk]

May 5th

POTENTIAL PLAYS

HOME:

2* Twins -150
2* Red Sox -162

ROAD:

1* Rangers -128
1* Braves -145

Remember, if line near closing is 10 cents or more in the opposite direction = NO PLAY. Otherwise, all are a go. I'm not so confident about the Red Sox pick since it's right near the cut-point of -165. But, I can't go against the system now.

STD

Home: 2-0 for +4.00 units
Road: 3-2 for +0.18 units

Home teams continue their amazing streak! (21-2 since April).

[Collecting]

Nice man, will be interested in tomorrows picks.

[HighVoltage]

Good work, Panekkkk

[Panekkkk]

3-1 on the night adding just under 4 units! On to tomorrow. At first glance, looking like 3 or so plays tomorrow, but mostly road games. Still not sure what to make of those.

[GGPLAYER]

3-1 on the night adding just under 4 units! On to tomorrow. At first glance, looking like 3 or so plays tomorrow, but mostly road games. Still not sure what to make of those.

Great job. I missed the Bos and Atl plays. I was out and not sure if I should have locked them in before I left work. I guess that will be a call I will have to make in the future. Liking what you've come up with here and I'm looking to try it out. Been doing chase systems and things are'nt going as well as I hoped.

[quick$]

thanks for sharing this system. Looks promising so far (including that April record ).
Question if you don't mind. Do you play all favorites that are under -165 or do you also
cap those favorites prior to making it a play?....today there are 8 games that meet the #1 criteria so far.
GL with the season. Hope you hit/pass your goal by July.

[Panekkkk]

thanks for sharing this system. Looks promising so far (including that April record ).
Question if you don't mind. Do you play all favorites that are under -165 or do you also
cap those favorites prior to making it a play?....today there are 8 games that meet the #1 criteria so far.
GL with the season. Hope you hit/pass your goal by July.

Thanks quick,

The "core" of the system caps picks between -120 and -165. I'm now gathering lots of additional data to see if I can add additional filters to improve the record. So to answer your question, I don't just play all favs under -165. Usually of all the favs in that range the system picks about 1/4.

[Panekkkk]

2 games meeting the system so far: Braves and Cubs... However, I have not yet listed these as potential plays. Cubs line is moving heavily -155 when I capped it up to -163 now.

What do you guys think? Both are road teams and I'm still not sold on my road team filters. Pouring over the data to see where the better edge comes up. I have to think that the Cubs win today but I HATE laying on them. Washington is also pretty damn unpredictable even despite the pitching matchup. What works in our favour though is the fact that Washington threw all their bullpen aces out last night so I'm thinking that with the starting pitching matchup, if Hudson goes deep, Atlanta wins.

[Panekkkk]

Great job. I missed the Bos and Atl plays. I was out and not sure if I should have locked them in before I left work. I guess that will be a call I will have to make in the future. Liking what you've come up with here and I'm looking to try it out. Been doing chase systems and things are'nt going as well as I hoped.

Chase systems are a tricky beast! Tried some in hockey and got killed with the juice on the +1.5 PL. Sticking to nice granny-style conservative plays now . Finally made back my hockey losses.

[GGPLAYER]

2 games meeting the system so far: Braves and Cubs... However, I have not yet listed these as potential plays. Cubs line is moving heavily -155 when I capped it up to -163 now.

What do you guys think? Both are road teams and I'm still not sold on my road team filters. Pouring over the data to see where the better edge comes up. I have to think that the Cubs win today but I HATE laying on them. Washington is also pretty damn unpredictable even despite the pitching matchup. What works in our favour though is the fact that Washington threw all their bullpen aces out last night so I'm thinking that with the starting pitching matchup, if Hudson goes deep, Atlanta wins.

Interesting you have the Cubs because that was going to be a guess of mine for your plays today. I am already on them and locked it in at -150. I am pot committed to that series since I am doing a 3 game chase. Chi offense has been terrible but their pitcher today is the best they have and Chi has to break out of this mini-slump. I also HATE laying anything on the Cubs since they are big disappoint thus far and seem to under peform a lot. Atl looks interesting. Wash is not Wash of old but I like your angle of a used up Wash pen. Tough one to call. I might just stay away from that one and wait till you get some more home plays and/or some different road teams. I'll be honest I'm pretty gun shy to bet anything anymore after the last two weeks I have had. Good luck

[GGPLAYER]

Chase systems are a tricky beast! Tried some in hockey and got killed with the juice on the +1.5 PL. Sticking to nice granny-style conservative plays now . Finally made back my hockey losses.

If Chi loses today or even if they win I think I'm going to revert back to my conservative ways. I chased in the NBA but I did not have to lay the chalk I do in baseball and it's not worth losing 10-15 units to win 1.

[GGPLAYER]

2 games meeting the system so far: Braves and Cubs... However, I have not yet listed these as potential plays. Cubs line is moving heavily -155 when I capped it up to -163 now.

What do you guys think? Both are road teams and I'm still not sold on my road team filters. Pouring over the data to see where the better edge comes up. I have to think that the Cubs win today but I HATE laying on them. Washington is also pretty damn unpredictable even despite the pitching matchup. What works in our favour though is the fact that Washington threw all their bullpen aces out last night so I'm thinking that with the starting pitching matchup, if Hudson goes deep, Atlanta wins.

Do you take the opening line of the day or the opening line? Example on Pinny the Cubs are listed as opening at -140 but that was on 5/5. The first line for today (5/6) was -144. That can make a big difference in how to watch the 10 cents move rule. I have noticed in other games where the line dropped the "wrong" way and that team has lost. Makes me nervous becasue I already bet Min but line has dropped from -232 down to -205. I know you don't look at games opening over -165 so should I not be as concerned about games over -200?

[Panekkkk]

I take the line at the time when I cap the play. The "core" of the system depends heavily on lines so if they move out of range before I cap then it's a no go. I find the best time to do this right in the morning (10 am) before the public starts hammering plays. That's just how it's worked for this system so I'm not going to second guess it now :P. Wish I could say more

Cubs line is moving STEEP!!! Another filter might eliminate the ATL play so I might just play the cubs but the price is getting out of control.

If you're tailing, I'd say you can't go wrong with the home games. With that said, the run is a bit ridiculous at 21-2 so I'm scared it's going to move towards a correction!!!

Let's hope it sticks

[Collecting]

Just the two away games today eh? BOL man, looks like its doin great for ya!

[Panekkkk]

Just the two away games today eh? BOL man, looks like its doin great for ya!

Still letting these games marinate. Not sure if I will make them potential plays yet or continue to accrue more data on the road teams. I have some other potential filters in mind but we'll see how they play out.