Yeah I hear ya with SF. Line is actually dropping too, now at -148! 
These home teams had a ridiculous run so I'm not surprised that it's going to fall back down to earth a bit as I said in the beginning. Even after yesterday, home teams are 21-4 which is still 84%. I'm expecting 70-75% so there still room for it to drop.
I also expect this to start doing a lot better in June and July, once the season reaches a statistical flow. This system is heavily based on lines and in the early months most lines are based on projections, not actual team play. This lets teams like Washington get undervalued and the Cubs get overvalued. I'm worried that Boston might be overvalued in this game.
It also looks like I might add a filter that if the line moves 10 cents or more in the "right" direction = NO PLAY. It has happened 7 times that has resulted in losses and only 4 times for winners (regardless of site). That would have saved us from the Mets game yesterday. Not sure I can find a good reason behind that except that if the public is hammering a side, you usually don't want to be on the same side.
These home teams had a ridiculous run so I'm not surprised that it's going to fall back down to earth a bit as I said in the beginning. Even after yesterday, home teams are 21-4 which is still 84%. I'm expecting 70-75% so there still room for it to drop.
I also expect this to start doing a lot better in June and July, once the season reaches a statistical flow. This system is heavily based on lines and in the early months most lines are based on projections, not actual team play. This lets teams like Washington get undervalued and the Cubs get overvalued. I'm worried that Boston might be overvalued in this game.
It also looks like I might add a filter that if the line moves 10 cents or more in the "right" direction = NO PLAY. It has happened 7 times that has resulted in losses and only 4 times for winners (regardless of site). That would have saved us from the Mets game yesterday. Not sure I can find a good reason behind that except that if the public is hammering a side, you usually don't want to be on the same side.
3-0 Pit. I don't believe it. I jumped on Chi RL at the last second.....like I said I'll NEVER learn!
Didn't play the Giants but they ended up winning 
It's also 8-1 when home teams are playing an opponent on a losing streak of 3 or more (which qualifies for all three games today). With all three plays today against opponents on big losing streaks today, it'll be interesting to see what happens