Betting Favorites - Season Thread

Panekkkk · 05-11-10, 10:52 AM

Yeah I hear ya with SF. Line is actually dropping too, now at -148!

These home teams had a ridiculous run so I'm not surprised that it's going to fall back down to earth a bit as I said in the beginning. Even after yesterday, home teams are 21-4 which is still 84%. I'm expecting 70-75% so there still room for it to drop.

I also expect this to start doing a lot better in June and July, once the season reaches a statistical flow. This system is heavily based on lines and in the early months most lines are based on projections, not actual team play. This lets teams like Washington get undervalued and the Cubs get overvalued. I'm worried that Boston might be overvalued in this game.

It also looks like I might add a filter that if the line moves 10 cents or more in the "right" direction = NO PLAY. It has happened 7 times that has resulted in losses and only 4 times for winners (regardless of site). That would have saved us from the Mets game yesterday. Not sure I can find a good reason behind that except that if the public is hammering a side, you usually don't want to be on the same side.

Panekkkk · 05-11-10, 10:56 AM

Yeah I wanted to take the Jays +1.5 or +2.5! Can't believe the game opened like that and then held at 7-6 for the second half of the game!

Panekkkk · 05-11-10, 12:21 PM

Both lines dropping steadily. Bos almost a no play, which makes me feel better about letting it go!

Bad_Cat · 05-11-10, 12:48 PM

This looks really interesting. Good Luck Panek.

Panekkkk · 05-11-10, 05:03 PM

Originally posted by Bad_Cat

This looks really interesting. Good Luck Panek.

Thanks Bad Cat! It's still a work in progress. Hoping to have it refined for June.

Panekkkk · 05-11-10, 05:07 PM

Both plays hovering around no-play territory. Already locked in SF but it probably won't qualify for this system. Boston definite no play.

GGPLAYER · 05-12-10, 09:19 AM

Originally posted by Panekkkk

Both plays hovering around no-play territory. Already locked in SF but it probably won't qualify for this system. Boston definite no play.

Wish I held off on booking that SF play. Next time I see everyone is on a team like that and NYM Monday night I'm making it a no play or betting the other team.

trojanman · 05-12-10, 09:45 AM

been watching with interest Pane......what you like today - early card.....thx.

Panekkkk · 05-12-10, 10:02 AM

Originally posted by Panekkkk

May 11, 2010:

HOME:

2* Boston -160 NO PLAY
2* Giants -150

Really hard to back Dice-K so I might hold off on that one, but love the Giants. Lots of sharps seem to be backing them tonight so I'm locking in early.

10 cent or greater move = No play.

Turns out that the Giants play qualified and lost while Boston won! The Giants line did dip heavily but rose back up. One thing I have not really been able to track are plays that moved 10 cents or more AT ANY POINT throughout the day. Before I had filtered just using closing line.

One play for today:

BREWERS -155

Gotta run but have some interesting comments and notes. Remember, and I cannot stress this enough, this is a work in progress!

STD

Home: 2-3 for -5.03 units
Road: 3-2 for +0.18 units

Bad_Cat · 05-12-10, 10:06 AM

Hi Panek, i decided to start my underdog and totals thread. This should be interesting with my underdog thread and your favorite thread. Good Luck.

Panekkkk · 05-12-10, 01:15 PM

No Braun in the lineup is really hurting the Brew Crew

Panekkkk · 05-14-10, 10:20 AM

Originally posted by Panekkkk

Turns out that the Giants play qualified and lost while Boston won! The Giants line did dip heavily but rose back up. One thing I have not really been able to track are plays that moved 10 cents or more AT ANY POINT throughout the day. Before I had filtered just using closing line.

One play for today:

BREWERS -155

:

Gotta run but have some interesting comments and notes. Remember, and I cannot stress this enough, this is a work in progress!

STD

Home: 2-4 for -8.19 units
Road: 3-2 for +0.18 units

Was gone for the weekend. Catching up now. System is on life support! Of course, as soon as I start posting it hits a huge losing streak. The thing is, even without any filters at all, home teams are 24-8 since the start of the season for +24 units. But, that of course can't be verified since I only started posting in May! No matter as I'll just keep chuggin' along. I suggest no one tail this until things start improving.

Another lesson learned from the Brewer's game: Even with the potential for lines to move against us, I will NEVER be locking in a pick until I see the lineups unless I have to. No Braun meant at least 1/4th of Brewer's run production gone. When Jim Edmonds and Jody Gerut are your 2-3 batters you're in trouble....

Panekkkk · 05-14-10, 10:23 AM

May 14th, 2010

Potential Plays:

HOME

2* Giants -142

Only two home teams have qualified on losing streaks of 3 or more and both won. This time we have the Giants on a losing streak of 3 vs. a team on a winning streak of 5. I also HATE Wellemeyer so I might just hold off on this one. Gonna let it sit ;P

Home: 2-4 for -8.19 units
Road: 3-2 for +0.18 units

Panekkkk · 05-14-10, 10:26 AM

Also have a VERY strong system trend telling me to play the Cubs ML and RL... However, Cubbies are my arch nemesis this year

Dwell · 05-14-10, 11:16 AM

I've been staring at the screen for the past hour trying to convince myself that betting on the cubs is a horrible idea, and that I shouldn't do it...

GGPLAYER · 05-14-10, 01:15 PM

Originally posted by Panekkkk

Also have a VERY strong system trend telling me to play the Cubs ML and RL... However, Cubbies are my arch nemesis this year

Ha...I hate this team and now I hate StL even more. Lot of people saying bet the Cubs today. Part of me wants to take them so I guess I'm sick in the head and I'll never learn.

GGPLAYER · 05-14-10, 01:41 PM

3-0 Pit. I don't believe it. I jumped on Chi RL at the last second.....like I said I'll NEVER learn!

Panekkkk · 05-15-10, 12:02 AM

You're not alone GG ... At least that finally sealed it. Never again

Panekkkk · 05-15-10, 12:02 AM

Originally posted by Panekkkk

May 14th, 2010

Potential Plays:

HOME

2* Giants -142

Only two home teams have qualified on losing streaks of 3 or more and both won. This time we have the Giants on a losing streak of 3 vs. a team on a winning streak of 5. I also HATE Wellemeyer so I might just hold off on this one. Gonna let it sit ;P

Home: 3-4 for -6.19 units
Road: 3-2 for +0.18 units

Turning the tide. Finally.

Panekkkk · 05-15-10, 09:23 AM

May 15 2010

HOME

2* Rockies GM 2 -149

Not loving the selections lately. Can't wait for the schedules to change. Will obviously wait to see what happens with GM1 before I pull the trigger on this one. A nice 5-game winning streak would be nice!

Also, hate talking this much chalk but RAYS large...

Home: 3-4 for -6.19 units
Road: 3-2 for +0.18 units

Panekkkk · 05-15-10, 10:54 PM

Originally posted by Panekkkk

May 15 2010

HOME

2* Rockies GM 2 -149

Not loving the selections lately. Can't wait for the schedules to change. Will obviously wait to see what happens with GM1 before I pull the trigger on this one. A nice 5-game winning streak would be nice!

Also, hate talking this much chalk but RAYS large...

Home: 4-4 for -4.19 units
Road: 3-2 for +0.18 units

Making ground.

Panekkkk · 05-16-10, 09:28 AM

Couple of plays for today.

May 16 2010

2* Marlins -163
2* Angels -155 GM1

Considering Giants. Line is -165 which is right on the cutoff. Problem is both plays are teams going for sweeps. Gonna sit on it. Will play both posted games unless I state otherwise. As always, if line moves 10 cents or more = NO PLAY.

STD
Home: 4-4 for -4.19 units
Road: 3-2 for +0.18 units

Panekkkk · 05-16-10, 04:20 PM

Originally posted by Panekkkk

Couple of plays for today.

May 16 2010

2* Marlins -163

2* Angels -155 GM1

Considering Giants. Line is -165 which is right on the cutoff. Problem is both plays are teams going for sweeps. Gonna sit on it. Will play both posted games unless I state otherwise. As always, if line moves 10 cents or more = NO PLAY.

STD
Home: 6-4 for -0.19 units
Road: 3-2 for +0.18 units

On a roll with 3 straight winners. Looking for one more with the Angels.

Panekkkk · 05-16-10, 05:31 PM

Angels get it done

Didn't play the Giants but they ended up winning

Panekkkk · 05-17-10, 10:50 AM

May 17 2010

2* ATL -140
2* STL -159
2* LAD -159

Don't like going against Washington but finally starting to get back into the plus with four straight winners so I'm gonna keep things rolling. Washington has been a huge killer of the road teams so far this year and is 1-1 as an opponent of the home teams. A sweep today would be nice! As always, if line moves 10 cents or more = NO PLAY. Still refining road filters. Will have them finished come June.

STD
Home: 6-4 for -0.19 units
Road: 3-2 for +0.18 units

Panekkkk · 05-17-10, 11:58 AM

I've identified some really simple road filter that vastly improves the road records so I"ll be testing that going forward and will probably implement it shortly. Road teams who qualify for this system who are playing against opponents on losing streaks of 3 or greater are 10-2. For home teams they are 8-1. All three home teams today are playing opponents on 3-game losing streaks which makes me want to parlay all three ML and +2.5 (risking enough units to win back the ML parlay which should be about equal $). Of the 8 home teams losing with no filters, only 2 have lost by more than 2.

Dwell · 05-17-10, 12:08 PM

Like the card, let's do this.

killawookie · 05-17-10, 01:56 PM

Any reason your staying away from RLs?

Panekkkk · 05-17-10, 03:04 PM

Originally posted by killawookie

Any reason your staying away from RLs?

Waiting to collect more data. Will probably start betting RL's for select games starting in June. There is definitely some units to be made there.

Panekkkk · 05-17-10, 03:05 PM

The RL is actually 21-14 on home teams with no additional filters!

It's also 8-1 when home teams are playing an opponent on a losing streak of 3 or more (which qualifies for all three games today). With all three plays today against opponents on big losing streaks today, it'll be interesting to see what happens

Similarly, the RL is 9-3 for road teams playing opponents on big losing streaks...

Wow... This one simple filter is $...

Panekkkk · 05-17-10, 05:44 PM

May 17 2010

HOME

2* ATL -140
2* STL -159
2* LAD -159

STD
Home: 6-4 for -0.19 units
Road: 3-2 for +0.18 units

All plays are a go despite line movements. Adding some parlays as well:

PARLAYS

All plays, +2.5 = 1.2 units to win 1
All plays, ML = 1 unit to win 3.59 units

Panekkkk · 05-17-10, 06:59 PM

Heyward GIDP with men on first and third, 1 out

Panekkkk · 05-17-10, 07:12 PM

Another GIDP ... One of those games.

Panekkkk · 05-17-10, 07:48 PM

Every Braves batter swinging at the first pitch. Apparently they have never heard of "working the count". Pelfrey only 76 pitches through 6 innings... siiigh...

Panekkkk · 05-17-10, 08:03 PM

Make that 3 GIDPs for the Braves. And on a 2-0 count. Baseball baffles me sometimes.