Betting Favorites - Season Thread

[Panekkkk]

May 17 2010

HOME

2* ATL -140
2* STL -159
2* LAD -159

All plays are a go despite line movements. Adding some parlays as well:

PARLAYS

All plays, +2.5 = 1.2 units to win 1
All plays, ML = 1 unit to win 3.59 units

Well, Atlanta game was the difference between cashing 10 units and only cashing 1 unit. Close game too with the Braves having more than enough chances to tie the game but came up short! Back in the positive tho.

STD
Home: 8-5 for +1.01 units
Road: 3-2 for +0.18 units

Parlays

1-1 +0 units

[Panekkkk]

No plays today.

Getting more and more excited as more data comes in. 2/3 plays hit ML and RL yesterday. Will begin to vary unit sizes by the end of the month.

[Panekkkk]

MAY 19, 2010

POTENTIAL PLAYS

HOME

Arizona -147
White Sox -154

ROAD

Brewers -146

Not so thrilled about these plays so I may play them for small units only. The Diamondback's line has already jumped nearly 20 points which, as a filter, has not performed well. Curious about the White Sox qualifying but I think the edge is in the fact that their bats woke up yesterday. Tough to lay on a team on an 8-game losing skid in the Brewers as well. So, as always, gonna let these sit. Will finalize later tonight but I might just hold off. I really like Arizona but I hate the huge line jump.

[Panekkkk]

All three plays a go, but each for one unit only.

[Panekkkk]

MAY 19, 2010

POTENTIAL PLAYS

HOME

Arizona -147
White Sox -154

ROAD

Brewers -146

Not so thrilled about these plays so I may play them for small units only. The Diamondback's line has already jumped nearly 20 points which, as a filter, has not performed well. Curious about the White Sox qualifying but I think the edge is in the fact that their bats woke up yesterday. Tough to lay on a team on an 8-game losing skid in the Brewers as well. So, as always, gonna let these sit. Will finalize later tonight but I might just hold off. I really like Arizona but I hate the huge line jump.

Only game I liked ended up winning (D-Backs). Didn't have time to wait for the line movements and the Brewers line ended up dropping 15 points which would have made it a no play .

STD

Home: 9-6 for +0.49 units
Road: 3-3 for -1.25 units

Parlays

1-1 +0 units

[Panekkkk]

May 20, 2010

POTENTIAL PLAYS

HOME

2* Braves -150
2* Dodgers -160

PARLAY

Both plays, ML 1 unit

As always, will confirm as the day progresses. 10 cent or greater line movement = NO PLAY.

[Panekkkk]

All plays stand. Gotta parlay now due to time difference.

[Panekkkk]

So much for the Braves ...

[GGPLAYER]

I had the under.....7 runs with 2 outs.

[Panekkkk]

Yeah, Hanson just exploded. If Atlanta ends up losing today that will mark 4 home teams that have lost when the line has moved 10 cents or more in their favor (e.g., -140 to -150, -155, etc.) while only 3 teams have won with similar line movements. Same trend for the road teams which might make that a good filter moving forward. Basically when the public starts hammering a line, time to back off!!!

I just want to get enough data on this to start getting it going in full swing!

[Panekkkk]

!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

!!!!!!!!!

!!!

!

I normally never throw-in the towel in baseball and call a game over early ... but I figured an 8-run lead meant the game was over. Never been on the right side of such a comeback! That was sick. My condolences to Reds-backers.

[Panekkkk]

May 20, 2010

POTENTIAL PLAYS

HOME

2* Braves -150
2* Dodgers -160

PARLAY

Both plays, ML 1 unit

As always, will confirm as the day progresses. 10 cent or greater line movement = NO PLAY.

Well, hard to even consider the Braves game a win...

STD

Home: 11-6 for +4.49 units
Road: 3-3 for -1.25 units

Parlays

2-1 +1.64 units

[GGPLAYER]

!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

!!!!!!!!!

!!!

!

I normally never throw-in the towel in baseball and call a game over early ... but I figured an 8-run lead meant the game was over. Never been on the right side of such a comeback! That was sick. My condolences to Reds-backers.

Good for you buddy. Like you said it seems we are never on the right side of games like that. Unreal...what a 9th!

[Panekkkk]

May 23, 2010

HOME

2* Atlanta -142

ROAD

2* Oakland -113
1* Florida -132

STD

Home: 11-6 for +4.49 units
Road: 3-3 for -1.25 units

Parlays

2-1 +1.64 units

Waiting for lineups to finalize. Line dropping heavy for Braves because Heyward, McCann and Jones out... Probably a no play with so many starters out. Braves boast a strong bench though.

[Panekkkk]

Also have two strong under systems pointing to Minny/Mil under 10 (bought up 0.5). With no Mauer in the lineup I love it even more!

[Panekkkk]

Looking like I might scratch both Oakland and Braves...

[Panekkkk]

May 23, 2010

HOME

2* Atlanta -142

ROAD

2* Oakland -113
1* Florida -132

STD

Home: 11-6 for +4.49 units
Road: 3-3 for -1.25 units

Parlays

2-1 +1.64 units

Waiting for lineups to finalize. Line dropping heavy for Braves because Heyward, McCann and Jones out... Probably a no play with so many starters out. Braves boast a strong bench though.

Looks like Florida will be the only play going forward.

[Panekkkk]

May 23, 2010

HOME

2* Atlanta -142

ROAD

2* Oakland -113
1* Florida -132

Waiting for lineups to finalize. Line dropping heavy for Braves because Heyward, McCann and Jones out... Probably a no play with so many starters out. Braves boast a strong bench though.

Oakland ended up winning as well but held off because of some weird numbers. Can't complain with a win though . Slow 'n steady


STD

Home: 11-6 for +4.49 units
Road: 4-3 for -0.25 units

Parlays

2-1 +1.64 units

[Panekkkk]

Also have two strong under systems pointing to Minny/Mil under 10 (bought up 0.5). With no Mauer in the lineup I love it even more!

Big hit on this

[Panekkkk]

May 24, 2010

3* Rays -155
1* Rays RL

STD

Home: 11-6 for +4.49 units
Road: 4-3 for -0.25 units

Parlays

2-1 +1.64 units

Play stands regardless of line movement.

So I've been tracking this intensely for a while now and only posting the strongest plays. As expected, the system is picking up as the season moves along with line makers no longer relying on projections. With no filters at all, the system is 24-7 since May 14th... Home teams are 35-10 so far, unfiltered, since the start of the season. I'm still trying to be very selective and improve the win percentage with filters but with the system hitting at a higher clip now I might start playing all plays and just playing higher units on select plays. Braves (road team) met the system today but I won't be making it official.

GL all

[Panekkkk]

The only guy with good #'s against Garza hits 2 HR's off him for 2 of Boston's 3 hits so far

[Panekkkk]

7 hits and 4 walks and 19 LOB and only 2 runs for the Rays after 5 innings. Rays can't buy a hit with RISP but get 2 men on base every inning!

[Panekkkk]

May 26, 2010

3* Rays -155
1* Rays RL

Catching up on record. Haven't been any plays the last two days. Tough break with that Rays game.

Home: 11-7 for -0.16 units
Home RL: 0-1 -1 units
Road: 4-3 for -0.25 units

Parlays

2-1 +1.64 units

One play today

[Panekkkk]

May 29, 2010

3* Giants -155
1.5* Giants RL +145

[Panekkkk]

May 29, 2010

3* Giants -155
1.5* Giants RL +145

Home: 12-7 for +2.84 units
Home RL: 1-1 +1.175 units
Road: 4-3 for -0.25 units

Parlays

2-1 +1.64 units

[Panekkkk]

May 30th, 2010

2* Angels -150
1* Angels -1.5 +140

Home ML: 12-7 for +2.84 units
Home RL: 1-1 +1.18 units
Road ML: 4-3 for -0.25 units
Parlays: 2-1 +1.64 units
Overall: +5.41 units

[Panekkkk]

Line dropping, probably because Hunter is questionable. Don't have time to wait to see lineups so play has been booked, but I'd probably wait to see if Hunter is in.

[Panekkkk]

May 30th, 2010

2* Angels -150
1* Angels -1.5 +140

Lucky comeback.

Home ML: 13-7 for +4.84 units
Home RL: 2-1 +2.58 units
Road ML: 4-3 for -0.25 units
Parlays: 2-1 +1.64 units
Overall: +8.81 units

[Panekkkk]

May 31, 2010

HOME
2* Cards -153

ROAD
1* Cubs -133
1* Rays -135 (don't like this play so may lay off)

Thinking of adding RL to the Cubs play but they've screwed me so hard this year I'm not sure what to make of it. Road teams are 10-3 against teams who have lost 3 or more games with 9 of those 10 wins cashing on the RL.

Home ML: 13-7 for +4.84 units
Home RL: 2-1 +2.58 units
Road ML: 4-3 for -0.25 units
Parlays: 2-1 +1.64 units
Overall: +8.81 units

[Panekkkk]

Adding 0.5* Cubs RL +123

[Panekkkk]

May 31, 2010

HOME
2* Cards -153

ROAD
1* Cubs -133
0.5* Cubs RL
1* Rays -135 (don't like this play so may lay off)

Thinking of adding RL to the Cubs play but they've screwed me so hard this year I'm not sure what to make of it. Road teams are 10-3 against teams who have lost 3 or more games with 9 of those 10 wins cashing on the RL.

Home ML: 14-7 for +6.84 units
Home RL: 2-1 +2.58 units
Road ML: 4-4 for -1.58 units
Road RL: 0-1 -0.5 units
Parlays: 2-1 +1.64 units
Overall: +8.98 units

Well, home teams continue to rip it up, now hitting at 66% since starting the thread and over 80% since April.

[Panekkkk]

Cards win big for a small positive night. I seriously gotta lay off the road teams. Oh yah, and **** the Cubs. Never again.

[Panekkkk]

JUNE 1ST UPDATE -- READY FOR LIFTOFF

Okay, we're finally into June and I have enough data to play around with. It's still going to take some time analyzing the data and I'm completely avoiding road teams for now until I can figure out what's going on there. But I'll update some stats:

Home teams ML
38-11 (78%) since May 8th, 2010 for +22.12 units if you were to play each game for 1 unit straight no filters
14-7 (67%) since I started posting in this thread

Home teams RL
30-19 (61%) for +22.68 units if you were to play each game for 1 unit straight no filters -- (that's an astounding win % when you consider ROI; I'm not sure if that makes me happy or scares me as it may be due for a correction). That means that 30 of 38 wins did not cover the RL

Home teams opponent TT under (special thank to Holy Grail for making me think about this)
35-2-12 for about +22.4 units if you were to play each game for 1 unit straight no filters

I will continue to play ONLY home games from here on out. The win % is about what I had hoped (around 75%) though it's still a bit high and I expect it to drop a bit. If it stays at 70% through June and July I should clear 40 units.

I will still vary home game units according to some additional filters (e.g., if opponent has lost 3 or more). I'm expecting big things for this moving forward! The funny thing is I could probably just play the opponent TT's under and the home team RL for maximum ROI. Gotta think the RL record will drop though so I'll stick to the ML.

Good luck everyone.

[Panekkkk]

No plays today. I hate the Cubs.

[baazigar]

cubs and the mets. hate em hate em!!