Betting Favorites - Season Thread

Panekkkk · 05-06-10, 05:54 PM

No time tonight. Not making any official plays tonight altho I think both atl n cubs will win gl all

HighVoltage · 05-06-10, 05:56 PM

I think you are wise to wait on the road dogs.

Panekkkk · 05-06-10, 06:30 PM

Just saw the Cubs score! Wow, good thing I held off. Books are overvaluing Cubs and undervaluing the Nats.

Panekkkk · 05-06-10, 08:10 PM

Ended up betting Zona ML and RL as personal play. Didn't get a chance to post it in time but lookin good! Really wanted to take Texas on a gut play but I couldn't do it. Been on a huge run... Sometimes you just gotta kick back and relax.

Panekkkk · 05-07-10, 11:42 AM

No plays today. TB meets the road filter but I will hold off on road plays until some statistical flow is reached (June 1st). By then I should have a better idea of filters. A wise man once pointed out that betting on good team yields profit, while betting on losing teams doesn't (strictly from a unit perspective). I may simply apply this mantra to road teams from June onward :P

Will continue posting home games as they come up!

Several systems pointing towards Giants +1.5 and ML. I'll be personally playing it despite the juice on the RL.

Panekkkk · 05-07-10, 11:48 AM

Huge line drop on TB too from -153 to -122 ... Beware!

NickS8753 · 05-07-10, 11:58 AM

very interesting....

GGPLAYER · 05-07-10, 12:03 PM

Originally posted by Panekkkk

Huge line drop on TB too from -153 to -122 ... Beware!

Did you see the line drop on the StL/Pitt game? What do you make of that?

Panekkkk · 05-07-10, 12:07 PM

Not sure! Saw others talking about it. Pirate bats have been hot and being such a huge dog at home is pretty rare.

Actually, just checked it out.

Since 2004 that's never happened before, that a team scores 10 or more runs as a huge dog at home and is a huge dog again in the first game of a series at home. Pretty crazy that it's never happened in the last 6 years.

Panekkkk · 05-07-10, 12:08 PM

In fact, teams who scored 8 or more runs as +140 or greater dogs in their last game at home, and are +140 or greater dogs in their next game at home and it's the first game of the series are 4-0 since 2006.

That would make me either bet the Pirates, or not touch it. Pirates +2.5 sounds good too! At least it did before the line moved.

GGPLAYER · 05-07-10, 12:20 PM

Originally posted by Panekkkk

In fact, teams who scored 8 or more runs as +140 or greater dogs in their last game at home, and are +140 or greater dogs in their next game at home and it's the first game of the series are 4-0 since 2006.

That would make me either bet the Pirates, or not touch it. Pirates +2.5 sounds good too! At least it did before the line moved.

Wow...I was going to go big on the Cards but this makes me think twice. Carp on the hill for StL too. Interesting

Panekkkk · 05-07-10, 12:28 PM

Yeah, I wanted to go big on STL too but with the line movement and the fact that this kind of situation has barely ever happened in the last 6 years will make me back off. Gotta think the Cards will win it though...

GGPLAYER · 05-07-10, 03:20 PM

Originally posted by Panekkkk

Huge line drop on TB too from -153 to -122 ... Beware!

I'm thinking of playing Oak here based on that line movment. Pit and Atl as dogs too. What do you think?

Panekkkk · 05-07-10, 04:20 PM

Not sure what to think. I don't really have an opinion either way. Just because there's some reverse line movement doesn't mean Oakland is a lock. Tough to go against a team that's 12-1 on the road but it's not going to last forever and if they're going to lose a game in this series its probably this one. I'm on SF tonight and I think that's it for me. Taking things slow and waiting for some home teams with this system ;P

Panekkkk · 05-07-10, 04:31 PM

Likin' Detroit tonight too.

Panekkkk · 05-07-10, 05:14 PM

GG, Decided to take Pitt +1.5 and ML for a small play :P

GL

Panekkkk · 05-07-10, 06:16 PM

Just missed playing the over on the Tigers game. Wind blowing around 15-25 MPH out of the stadium! Literally missed by seconds

Panekkkk · 05-07-10, 06:21 PM

Error by Cedeno would have ended the inning, instead leads to 2 runs for the Cards...

Panekkkk · 05-07-10, 09:04 PM

Giants bet all lined up to win on the +1.5 and Giants top it in the top of the 9th only to lose by 2 from a 2-run HR in the bottom of the ninth...

That kind of stuff drives you crazy. Same thing going on with the Pirates game...

Panekkkk · 05-10-10, 09:17 AM

May 11, 2010

Two home games for today. As mentioned, I have cut-off road games until I get some more data. Not such a huge fan of these play since Maine has been less than stellar and Washington are still being devalued by the books but I'll stick with it. Also, I HATE THE CUBS.

HOME

2* Mets -150
2* Cubs -151

STD

Home: 2-0 for +4.00 units
Road: 3-2 for +0.18 units

GGPLAYER · 05-10-10, 09:51 AM

Originally posted by Panekkkk

May 11, 2010

Two home games for today. As mentioned, I have cut-off road games until I get some more data. Not such a huge fan of these play since Maine has been less than stellar and Washington are still being devalued by the books but I'll stick with it. Also, I HATE THE CUBS.

HOME

2* Mets -150
2* Cubs -151

STD

Home: 2-0 for +4.00 units
Road: 3-2 for +0.18 units

Your system has been very strong so far with home teams so I'll roll with the Cubs too even though I hate them as well. Between them and Boston you have no idea how much money they have cost me this year.

Panekkkk · 05-10-10, 09:52 AM

Originally posted by Panekkkk

May 11, 2010

Two home games for today. As mentioned, I have cut-off road games until I get some more data. Not such a huge fan of these play since Maine has been less than stellar and Washington are still being devalued by the books but I'll stick with it. Also, I HATE THE CUBS.

HOME

2* Mets -150
2* Cubs -151

STD

Home: 2-0 for +4.00 units
Road: 3-2 for +0.18 units

Just a reminder that if the line at Pinnacle moves 10 cents or more in the opposite direction = NO PLAY.

Panekkkk · 05-10-10, 09:55 AM

I know, I hesitate with them but they should get a bit of spark from promoting Castro (it'll be is first home game). Lilly has to be better as well. He got rocked on his last start on a day that the wind was blowing out of Cubs stadium and the total was set at 14.5 or something ridiculous like that. He has pretty decent numbers vs. the Fish, especially against Hanley Ramirez (Hanley 1 for 10 lifetime vs. Lilly) which is what I like to see.

Atilano is a bit of a wild card for Washington but the Mets are playing really good ball now so I'll roll with 'em.

GGPLAYER · 05-10-10, 01:44 PM

Originally posted by Panekkkk

Just a reminder that if the line at Pinnacle moves 10 cents or more in the opposite direction = NO PLAY.

Met's line is moving in the correct direction so I'm going to lock it in now before it goes any higher. Cubs seem to holding and I don't see it dipping 10 cents by game time.

Panekkkk · 05-10-10, 01:48 PM

Yeah, I ended up grabbing the Mets game at -153. Gonna sit on the Cubs line. It might dip a bit but I also don't see it dipping 10 by game time! Starting to like the Phils a lot as well with Gonzalez and Tulo (probably) both out. Might parlay all three for a half unit or so.

GGPLAYER · 05-10-10, 01:58 PM

Hope NYM wins because I paid the extra juice...got them at -161. Thanks for the tip on the Philly game.

Panekkkk · 05-10-10, 06:43 PM

Mets load the bases with 1 out and get nothin'!

Atilano 30 pitches in the first tho :P

Panekkkk · 05-10-10, 08:42 PM

Well, not lookin' good. Mets have had a ton of chances ... 19 LOB so far is all I have to say. Pathetic. 12 LOB for the Cubs so far as well. Hate betting against Washington this year and on the Cubs.

Still time

Panekkkk · 05-10-10, 08:56 PM

God dammit the Cubs suck... GIDP with 2 men on 1 out.

Rush · 05-10-10, 08:59 PM

Damn panekkk you got a lot of points. Can you loan me 50 or 100 for the night I have a strong play at 10

Panekkkk · 05-10-10, 09:15 PM

Mets are 1 and 12 with RISP. TV goin' off. On to tomorrow!

GGPLAYER · 05-11-10, 08:58 AM

Cubs continue to screw me. Met's had their chances all night.

Panekkkk · 05-11-10, 09:04 AM

Originally posted by Panekkkk

May 10, 2010

Two home games for today. As mentioned, I have cut-off road games until I get some more data. Not such a huge fan of these play since Maine has been less than stellar and Washington are still being devalued by the books but I'll stick with it. Also, I HATE THE CUBS.

HOME

2* Mets -150
2* Cubs -151

STD

Home: 2-2 for -2.03 units
Road: 3-2 for +0.18 units

Well, my suspicions were right. Hated both those games and they didn't fail to disappoint. Home teams were due for a loss. As you said GG, Mets had their chances. Mets had 12 hits and 2 walks and managed only 2 runs... Pretty damn pathetic. Still think we were on the right side of that one. I blame Jose Reyes and Ike Davis for their combined 9 LOB. Wright couldn't get a clutch hit to save his career. Nothing to say about the Cubs. Never touchin' them again no matter what any system says

Thankfully my plays outside of the system keep hitting and saved me from a bad night (Phillies and Angels)!

Panekkkk · 05-11-10, 09:06 AM

May 11, 2010:

HOME:

2* Boston -160
2* Giants -150

Really hard to back Dice-K so I might hold off on that one, but love the Giants. Lots of sharps seem to be backing them tonight so I'm locking in early.

10 cent or greater move = No play.

GGPLAYER · 05-11-10, 10:07 AM

Originally posted by Panekkkk

May 11, 2010:

HOME:

2* Boston -160
2* Giants -150

Really hard to back Dice-K so I might hold off on that one, but love the Giants. Lots of sharps seem to be backing them tonight so I'm locking in early.

10 cent move = No play.

I locked in SF early too. Eveyrone is on them which always makes me uneasy....sort of like yesterday with the Mets. I think of Boston like I do the Cubs....HATE them. Every time I bet on them I lose. I took Tor +1.5 last night so I got a little revenge.