CK's 2025 MLB Thread

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For those who like NBA

T-Wolves/Thunder OVER 218.5

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Guardians/Twinkies postponed-make sure that you get your money back

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Just heard some good news from Dr. Chao who indicates Hunter is all stretched out and ready to test his pitch limit-which of course was lower while in the bullpen where he threw harder instead of smarter

I am buying back

Giants-1.5 +149 RL Birdsong

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5/20/25

Rot.#920 Metropolitans-130 ML Holmes
Rot,#902 Fish+110 ML FF Weathers
Rot.#920 A's-1.5 +125 RL Hoglund 2 UNITS
Rot.#929 Royals+120 Lorenzen
Rot,#910 Dodgers-1.5 -110 Yamamoto
Rot,#904 Buccos+111 Falter
Rot.#927 Tigers-1.5 -105 RL Skubal
Rot.#925 Orioles+105 Akin
Rot.#930 Royals/Giants UNDER 8
Rot,#915 Guardians-105 Williams GAME 2
Rot.#912 Rays-110 Littell
Rot.#924Fathers/Jays UNDER 8.5

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This is a massive schedule today! Yikes! So I will be in full Billy Walters mode trying my best to spot the mistakes and blast away hopefully winning 2-3 more than i lose!

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Ok I know this one isn't gonna fly with most of you-but it's the chance I have to take considering that no one else has him on roster. I mean ZILCH. And his skill set actually sets up well against the opposition. I can actually win this one and still make a healthy profit losing all of the moves I am making today boys

CRUMBS POD

Keegan Akin (Orioles) 0% rostership

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Record Update

228-229-14 +8.25 UNITS

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I just freshly caught hell in the discord for placing Hayden Birdsong (Giants) at #21 (DNS) HOW COULD YOU PUT HIM SO LOW?!

Because he isn't striking everyone out in relief, still struggles with getting strikes, and doesn't have elite stuff? It's weird, I know. I don't like quoting high level stats, but it's not like he was insane in the pen - low ERA, yes, but a 1.29 WHIP, 25% K rate with a 10% walk rate. That is with max effort and getting saved when things are bad. All I'm saying is sure, go pick him up. I did! Just don't start him here. It's four-seamer/cutter (the slider is 88/89 with ~5 inches less drop this year) with a changeup that can be dope but goes in-and-out and he's unlikely to go efficiently through five. It COULD happen, just more likely to hurt.

Naturally as a result I am looking to pick up some Royals tomorrow boys. Against everyone!

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Just grabbed some

A's-135 (Ginn)

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joes looking for a chicken dinner tomorrow when the Cubs play the Fish are going to be in for a rude awakening. Ryan Weathers could very well give me another HUGE payday, Dude's only got 14% ownership OMG!

Walker Buehler's coming back for the Red Sox too-FADE CITY with Clay Holmes and the Metros

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SKINNY

The Metropolitans/Res Sox is one where the teams are not familiar with one another
Same with the Tigers/Cardinals and Royals/Giants
The Brews get the Orioles off of a loss when they were HUGE favorites-and the misery continues
The Cubs and Fish are all set for a huge scoring game today with the arms involved
The Astronauts will give Gordon enough runs to hang in there and win this one late-his skill set is kryptonite for Rays
The Guardians are catching the Twinkies off of a LONG road trip-and the Twinkies wives had a lot of honey do's in store
The Snakes and Dodgers are not playing indoors this time-the Marine Layer will help this one out

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I just saw something and I BET OUT of Dodgers ML by taking the Snakes+119 for the same amount risked

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5/19/25


Metropolitans/Red Sox UNDER 9
Tigers/Cardinals UNDER 8.5 Montero/Gray
Royals/Giants UNDER 7 Bubic/Ray
Astronauts+114 2 UNITS Gordon
Guadians+117 2 UNITS Allen
Cubs/Fish OVER 8.5 Brown/Cabrera
Snakes/Dodgers UNDER 9.5 Pfaadt/Knack
Brews-115 Preister

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Heat check

Grab some Bombers-1.5 +110 Fried
this to go along with the UNDER

and also 2 way the UNDER and Bombers-160 ML

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Whew! Noah Cameron gave me a sweet payday yesterday-and believe me- I was sweating it out a bit when he came out for the 6th frame and promptly gave up a dinger to Jordan Walker. He was pulled immediately after that and I got my wish with 6.1 frames and a 3/1/K/W. It felt like winning the Super Bowl when I got the call from the Commish.

Okay so after sniffing around a bit-I decided to go with one of my draft choices from last year that I have stashed in

Zebby Matthews who has 14% rostership and a sweet payout should he get the coveted 5/3/1/K/W. The Brews don't scare anyone with their bats of late, but this is indeed risky given the clear fact that the Brews are in a state of desperation

BUT FORGET ABOUT THAT IT'S ABOUT DANG TIME. Matthews hasn't been as electric in Triple-A as of late, mostly due to his lack of slider dominance, and despite getting a hefty serving of the bigs last year, I'm treating this like a mini-debut. If I were you, I'd roster Zebby and possibly play it safe in some leagues. This isn't your typical 10 teamer guy you take to remodel landscape your front yard.


1:30 Buccos-112 Skenes
1:30 Tigers/Jays UNDER 8.5
1:30 Guardians/Red Leggins UNDER 9
1:30 Braves-124 Schwellenbach
2:00 Royals-110 Wacha
2:00 Cardinals/Royals UNDER 8.5
4:00 Sailors/Fathers UNDER 7.5 Woo/King
4:00 A's/Giants UNDER 8.5
7:00 Metropolitans/Bombers UNDER 8.5 Peterson/Fried

Really brief-the Blunts were -320 yesterday and today are slight underdogs. Berrios is GOLD at home and at the same time the Tigers have a crisp pen. I fully expect the Guardians to win this one-but Ortiz also has spells where he forgets his command-Abbott is not to worry much about-he's in good form. The Braves have been underdogs each of the first two games in Beantown and now are favored. The Royals are close to cracking the Cardinals code and losing yesterday 1-0 is cause for a slow burning under coupled with a Royals win late in this one. Woo and King? I will take my chances-the Fathers may blow this move out of the water swinging for the fences-no team wants to get swept at home in a series. the A's and Giants also falls into the same categories as the Cardinals/Royals.

I have a ton of family baseball related stuff to do today with my son and one of his teammates at a local park. I won't be home until probably around 4:30 to 5 today-enjoy your Sunday

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The jays played for me-after the fact from my FF move-no sweat. It all comes together tomorrow

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Some of this chalk this weekend is absurd!

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3:00 Jays+100 ML FF Lauer
4:00 Rays/Fish OVER 8 Rasmussen/Alcantara
6:30 Red Leggins-103 FF ML Petty
7:00 Twinkies/Brews UNDER 7.5 Lopez/Myers
7:00 Cardinals/Royals UNDER 8.5 -105 Mikolas/Cameron
7:00 Braves/Red Sox UNDER 9.5 -120 Holmes/Giolito
7:00 Astronauts+104 Blanco 3 UNITS
8:30 Sailors/Fathers UNDER 8.5 -120 Hancock/Pivetta
9:00 A's/Giants UNDER 8 Severino/Roupp

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BET OUT of the Metropolitans/Bombers UNDER by taking the OVER 10. Something is p with this game

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Get down on

Metropolitans/Bombers UNDER 9.5

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For my CRUMBS POD today I am rolling with

(Royals) Noah Cameron. He kept the lights on with 6 frames earlier this year for me n a spot start when Cole Ragans was on the IL. This will in all likelihood be a very short stay on this level as Lugo isn't expected to be out for any sort of significant time.

This guy has 0% rostership and you know me-I am looking to always find a way to make 5 dimes or so on one move. I haven't figured out how I am gonna use him in this conventional way yet-gimme some hours

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Hard Rock backed TOTALS - will be on these too -LIVE BET in on them if you are tardy to the party

Metropolitans/Bombers UNDER 8.5
Tigers/Jays UNDER 8.5
Braves/Red Sox UNDER 7.5
Cardinals/Royals UNDER 8.5
Astronauts/Wanderers UNDER 7.5
Twinkies/Brews UNDER 7.5
Sailors/Fathers UNDER 8.5
A's/Giants UNDER 7.5

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5/16/25

6:30 Red Leggins+100 FF Singer
7:00 Fish+100 ML FF Meyer
7:00 Rays/Fish OVER 8 or 8.5 depending on your book Bradley/Meyer
7:30 Cardinals+126 Pallante (FULL GAME)
8:00 Brews+105 FF ML Patrick
7:00 Braves-110 Sale FULL GAME
7:00 Jays+105 FF Francis

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By far the best two moves on the board for the books are the Metropolitans and the Cardinals for value and situation with plus money involved

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Some more oddity here. The Jays were just -178 in their last game and are now underdogs of -130 and rising to the Tigers-how does that happen? The same can be said of the Braves who were -210 their last game and are now underdogs to the Red Sox. Talk about variance! Tigers and Red Sox are looking pretty good right now-I may break my cycle of taking home underdogs FF ML for the Jays game-that variance is pretty fierce and very noticeable. Let's check out how the line moves on those and get back to them after the books assume their position

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Right off the top there's line of the day. No doubt who the books will be rooting for in this one.

The Fish are 16-26 and the Rays are 20-23. The Fish are FAVORED -112 (O/U 8). This is definitely going to inspire bettors to take the Rays and eventually make the Fish into a dangerous underdog. When that happens I will be on them and the OVER. Let the patient waiting begin

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CRU,MBS POD Record 34-15 now and Bryce was one K away from gold-just about sums up my season LOL!

Today I am rolling with Cade Horton (Cubs) He only has 15% rostership which makes for a good split. I wonder if we'll see more than cut-fastball + sweeper. I love the fastball's ability to induce outs and the White Sox should abide.

Ok I will be back later on with the goods

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Ok so at some point in these crazy ass NBA playoffs order has o be restored in terms of a good number right?

The NBA 216.5 has gone over 70% this season

https://www.teamrankings.com/nba/odds-history/over-under/?season-filter=2024

Hell even the 216 is 57%

Only once during this series have the teams combined to have less than 216 points and that was game 4. this is an evident market over correction

Thunder/Nuggets OVER 216

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Right back at ya

Osvaldo Bido has only 2% rostership-so you know that the books are rooting for the A's today and so am I. They have an amazing way of blasting away in road games after giving up 7 or more runs their previous games. Matt Sauer in only (get this) 8 at bats vs the Athletics he has an ERA of .625; BOP .625; 1.500 SLG and 2.125 OPS with 2 dingers and a double. Bido 22 AB; 6K's; 2 BB; .227 ERA, 292 OBP; .364 SLG; .655 OPS

I rarely go over -140 for a favorite so the RL it is for the Orioles

Pale Hose (Wilson) OVER 3.5 K's +100
A's+175 Bido
Orioles-1.5 +145 RL Sugano 2 UNITS

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CRUMBS STREAMER POD RECORD 34-14

Alright-today it's basically who isn't starting deGrom and Brown-after that it's slim pickins! Sugano has shown stellar command-but not enough K's. So I am forced to dig deep into my bag of tricks to come up with a guy who can give me the golden 5/3/1/K/W ratio.
The Red Leggins are averaging AVERAGING 9 K's per game-so Bryce Wilson (Pale Hose) it is. He has a 3.24 WRA on the highway and his xwOBA is set at .322 which isn't that great-but he does average 18.8 K's vs the Red Leggins lineup and an ERA of .222 and an 88.7% exit velocity.

CRUMBS POD

Bryce Wilson (Pale Hose)

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Welp-can't say that I didn't tell y'all that Weathers is back and he looked fantastic!

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Damn.... I got Aaron Judged in the 8th frame! Dude is so awesome. He blasted the Sailors away

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El Paso NBA

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Ok here are my TOTALS (Already have Red Sox/Tigers UNDER 7.5)

Buccos/Metropolitans OVER 8 -110
Nats/Braves OVER 9 -115
Rox/Wanderers OVER 9 -109

That's it for MLB for today-lemme sniff out the NBA

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Taillon allowed NINE hits and 5 earned in his last start vs the Metropolitans-so he is in bad form. From the research the Cubs are 0-8 straight up when he takes the mound following a bad quality start.

Let's start whittling away at the big ML parlay starting now with this and continue on selectively chipping

Fish+0.5 -105 FF RL Weathers