CK's 2025 MLB Thread

[atthehalf]

FILTERED 4/10/25

Surprisingly I found that Bailey Ober is in bad form right now and on top of that he has bad numbers vs the Royals-especially Bobby Witt Jr. and the Royals got shut out on Wednesday night. Over she blows

Let's keep the poker chips moving y'all. It's a long season and before you know it-there will come along some HUGE moves for conventional sides and totals for y'all.

I know that the Red Sox are the move when they are in jeopardy of losing 4 straight to the Jays-but Buehler is not off to a good start and Bassitt is clearly in a happier place right now.So I don't know if the SIDE is the way to go. The totals for this series have been 8.5, 8, and 8 for the first 3 games and this one opened up at 9 despite 2 UNDERS and a PUSH. You know the drill

Jonathan Cannon (Pale Hose)doesn't do much right against the Guardians with a line of 19 AB; 4K; 1BB, .368 AVG; .400 OBP; .632 SLG; 1.032 OPS and on top of that this season he has a 47.8% Hard Hit rate and 15.4% walk rate. Conversely I don't necessarily trust Gavin Williams to cover a 1.5 line with the Pale Hose needing a win in the series. He isn't so hot this year and the ONLY thing that he is doing decently is his hard hit rate is 26.9%. That's it. Look at it this way-the Pale Hose had 8 hits to the Guardians 3 and lost a nail biter on Wednesday Advantage to the Pale Hose miraculously. At least they won't have to see Clase at the end of the game who was used on Wednesday. Throw out the +1.5. Go for the gusto. I won't be taking a - ANYTHING for this opportunity.

My CRUMBS POD Streamer for today is (Halos) Jose Soriano#5 who is appearing on only 25% of rostership which is absurd given the level of his talent. The sinker and curve are working and the slider has been cooking against right hand batters-plus it's the Rays right? Sign me up for a potential split of the 75% pie. Intersecting fantasy streaming and conventional sides and totals always starts slow and then builds up like a campfire where it's for s'mores and storytelling at first for the kids and then adults getting cozy and drinking whiskey later on.

Pure joes fade for the Rox to avoid a super sweep

Rot.#907 Halos+110 ML FF Soriano#5 (HD)
Rot.#905 Pale Hose+185 ML Cannon FULL GAME
Rot.#905 Pale Hose/Guardians OVER 7.5 +100 FULL GAME 2 UNITS
Rot.#909 Twinkies/Royals OVER 4.5-110 FF Ober#2/Wacha#6 (Ober is in bad form right now)
Rot.#902 Rox+100 Feltner(DNS) FULL GAME 2 UNITS
Rot.#911 Jays/Red Sox OVER 9.5 +105 Bassitt#7/Buehler#9 FULL GAME 2 UNITS
Rot.#904 Braves-130 ML FF Schwellenbach#1

[atthehalf]

Alright-for tomorrow grab some Jose Soriano (Halos). With only 25% rostership I stand to get a nice amount of change back with a good split should he get me 5 frames and the golden 3/1 K/W ratio. I love these chunks of money my streamers bring in, and I am buying LOW right now for stocks at bargain prices-although they went up again today with trump announcing that he is putting a 90 day freeze on some tariffs. The joes have no idea that this is exactly when you should be snapping up positions instead of selling. Hold your ground on the Magnificent 7 and purchase even more United States Steel Corporation (X) which his trading now at $45.14

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So far the Bombers and Dodgers did me in for the RL's which is to be expected and is collateral damage. Other than that the systematic approach for today is doing just fine

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Rest in the sky Frank Robinson

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The BIG BOARD has been updated with a few surprises

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UNFILTERED 4/9/25

Basically I am going to make moves on all of the teams that are in jeopardy of being swept with full game moves and simultaneously attempting to not spend over -140 vigorously. So that means I will take a few hits making RL move-however it is in the spirit of a long season's returns. These are all FULL GAME moves

Wanderers+130 Mahle
Bombers-1.5 +115 RL Fried
Fish+1.5 -115 RL Meyer
Dodgers-1.5 -110 RL Knack
Twinkies-110 Ryan
Red Sox-130 Houck
Rox+1.5 -130 RL Senzatela
Rays-140 Pepiot


Other moves

Astronauts (Brown) OVER 7.5 K's +115
Pale Hose+140 ML FF Burke
Red Leggins+120 ML FF Martinez

[atthehalf]

There are enough teams in jeopardy of being swept tomorrow to not have to do any homework. Just runlines and fun times

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Ah damn...another managerial decision cost me. Gillespie gets pulled with a 2-2 score through 4 frames and got pulled. Then Faucher here comes in for relief and immediately gives up two runs in the bottom of the 5th. I hate it when coaches do that

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Guys you don't have to go strictly DM when you have questions. I don't bite LOL!

Ok so a reader wants to know more about the Fish/Metropolitans moves and also why i am not as detailed as I was on the thread from last year.

First things first

Here's Holmes historic line vs the Fish

24 AB; 8K; 3BB; .333 AVG, .407 OBP; .333 SLG; .741 OPS

Here's Gillespie's history vs Metropolitans

20 AB; 7K; 0BB, .200 AVG; .200 OBP; .350 SLG; .550 OPS

Holmes HH % this season 37.9%; Gillespie's 41.7 (not much difference)
Holmes K% this season 21.7%; Gillespie's 23.3% (not much difference)

Holmes BB% 13.9%; Gillespie's 9.3%

Holmes whiff% 16.9; Gillespie's 25.4%

The only stat where Holmes is better than Gillespie is the flyball vs groundballs where Holmes has a GB% of 69.0% and Gillespie 34.5% and flyballs Holmes 3.4% and Gillespie 20.7. However the weather in the Bronx is going to be COLD with a high of 44degrees so there's that.

Ad for all of the money that he is paid Juan Soto only has 10% barrels this season. there are 6 players on the Fish with higher barrel percentage than him right now! If not for Pete Alonso the Metropolitans would be having all kinds of issues.

Part two

It's the silence that I enjoy about posting here-it's also the reason why I don't go as much into detail. grecycle99 doesn't interact much either and his system is killing it

[atthehalf]

The Blunts beat the Dodgers in a series. Now comes the reality that our hero can shut them down. Chris Sale has had 78 at bats vs the Blunts. he has k'd up 35 of those. That's ownership. Aces gonna ace

Skenes is great when the Buccos need him to be; and against Sonny he will deliver. Dude's given up only 3.4% barrels so far this season, Roll with him AND Sonny Gray-just not in THIS platform


Ragans-Aces gonna ace

Crochet-Aces gonna ace

Peralta has K'd up 44.7% of the Rox he has faced. Aces gonna ace (even at Coors Field) NEXT

Keep riding the Roupp train until the wheels fall off. As the proud manager that I am to have drafted him when no one else even thought about it-I am set up for continual large paydays reminiscent of a few years back when I drafted Spencer Strider before anyone even knew who he was. I purchased my 4 Runner courtesy of Strider that season. I see more of the same with this guy-he's got electric stuff

Besides- I need some magic CRUMBS. Most of the aces are owned high as hell so there won't be much fantasy profit at all

Connor Gillespie? I mean Holmes isn't a -200 pitcher to begin with and Gillespie gives me an opportunity to be on the 99% of collections

4/8/25 FILTERED


Rot.#905 Fish+0.5 +140 Gillespie (1%)
Rot.#905 Fish Team Total OVER 3.5 +185
Rot.#918 Red Sox-130 FF RL Crochet#2 (99%)
Rot.#922 Royals-135 ML FF Ragans#5 (99%)
Rot.#908 Braves-125 ML FF Sale#4 (99%)2 UNITS
Rot.#925 Wanderers/Cubs OVER4.5 100 FF Corbin#29 DNS/Taillon#21
Rot.#909 Brews (Peralta#12 (95%)) OVER K's -140
Rot.#912 Giants-135 FF ML Roupp#16 (7%) CRUMBS POD
Rot.#930 A's+0.5 -125FF RL Springs#17 (37%)

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Damn... the Fish took out Bellozo with the score 1-0 in the 5th. Why? Coaches decisions will lose a move faster than anything

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Berrios got subbed in for Lucas-so make sure to get your money back for that move from your book as the LISTED are not facing one another

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Landen Roupp (Giants) will be the CRUMBS POD Streamer for tomorrow. He's only on 7% of rosters so a nice 93% share is a distinct possibility.

So blast away with him on all platforms, 10 teamer and 12 teamers especially

[atthehalf]

Massive schedule tomorrow full of oodles of value. It's like poker. You play multiple hands all day and night. You won't win every hand. Poker isn't designed that way. You will literally fold more than you win. But when you do win you want it to be epic and stack those chips. Chris Sale to the rescue boys

[atthehalf]

Bellozo is so cold blooded that there isn't even a K's line for him-yet the FF is lined at 4. I took the 3.5 because I always try to avoid vigorous as a preference,

Because of the weak hitting shown by the Sailors-some of the boys in the discord were looking at Wesneski as their potential POD until I pointed out that against the Sailors he has a poor line of .375 AVG; .444 OBP; .625 SLG; and 1.069 OPS-which his almost at the golden 1.100 that I like to take an opposing team total to go over.

Zach Eflin has a weird stat of K'ing up 39.2% of the Snakes batters that he has faced over 51 at bats with a .176 AVG and .423 OPS and .216 SLG. It's weird. Gallen of course has stellar numbers vs the orioles and any team for that matter-still Eflin's numbers are a tad better so the juice is worth the squeeze.

Easton Lucas is the pride and joy of the Jays farm system and he gets the start today. I drafted him during the off season (of course no one paid that any mind while making NBA moves) and have him raring to go with a neat 100% share at stake. I seriously doubt that he goes the full 5 frames but there's always a good chance right? Who doesn't like volume money?

[atthehalf]

FILTERED FOR 4/7/25

First off I drafted Valente Bellozo (Fish) appearing on 0% of rosters) and also Easton Lucas (Jays) also appearing on 0% of rosters.

Should either of those two go f or 5 frames and a 3/1 K/W ratio I will be a happy man even if I lose each and every other move for today. The potential share percentage of a 100% is ignorant


3:00 Rot.#960 Tigers+130 FF ML Mize#19 DNS (15% of rosters)
6:30 Rot.#961 Jays+115 FF ML Lucas (DRAFT 0% of rosters)
7:00 Rot.#955 Fish/Metropolitans UNDER 3.5 +115 Bellozo (DRAFT 0% rosters)/Senga#6
7:30 Rot.#968 Wanderers+110 FF ML Eovaldi#1
9:30 Rot.#969 Orioles+120 FF ML Eflin#12 (71% of rosters)
9:30 Rot.#969 Orioles (Eflin#12) OVER 4.5 +100 K's
9:30 Rot.#957 Red Leggins+128 FF ML Greene#3 (94% rosters)
9:30 Rot.#966 Sailors-0.5 -105 FF RL Gilbert#2 9
9:30 Rot.#966 Sailors Gilbert OVER 6.5 K's +105 (K's up 40% of HOU bats)

[atthehalf]

Use this instead

[atthehalf]

Don't use this boys-you will lose lightning fast

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I am not saying that I am the cause of this-I did tear up the Hard Rock sportsbook with moves on pitcher's K's last season and there ae individuals in my league who are cozy with some of the higher ups there-but the numbers that they are offering for K's is ridiculous. Like Alcantara is over 4.5 K's -170. As likely as it is to happen-I ain't putting that type of risk on any move for MLB. I already spoke on Glasnow's number. Looks like I will have to go with my non name brand selections for K's which suits me just fine

[atthehalf]

Glasnow is OVER 6.5 K's -155. Those who know how I get down obviously know that i don't make many moves over -135 and this won't be one of them. Big board will be updated with this move as a scratch