CK's 2025 MLB Thread

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Red Leggins+114 BUY BACK 1 UNIT

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5/5/25

Bombers-1.5 +130 RL Rodon 2 UNITS
Fathers/Bombers OVER 8 Pivetta/Rodon

Braves-1.5 +130 RL Smith-Shawver 2 UNITS
Red Leggins/Braves OVER 8.5 1 UNIT

Cubs-1.5 +130 RL Boyd 2 UNITS
Giants/Cubs OVER 7.5 1 UNIT

Royals-1.5 -120 RL Ragans 2 UNITS
Pale Hose/Royals OVER 8 1 UNIT

Cardinals-1.5 +130 RL Mikolas 2 UNITS
Buccos/Cardinals OVER 8.5 1 UNIT

Nats-105 FF ML Irvin

Buccos+118 Mlodzinski 1 UNIT BUY BACK

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Ok so

Nats-105 FF Irvin

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Alright boys-I have Shane Smith ranked at #5 with only 12% of rostership-so he's my CRUMBS POD of the day for a 5/3/1/K/W ratio

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OMG! I have Shane Smith ranked as a top ten! I'm unsure if this is the right tier for Smith, who has yet to display legit stamina to go through six strong. Still, his stuff is legit and he's been productive across five frames constantly. The Royals may go on to hammer them in this situation as they are a robust 11-5 at home and the Pale Hose are 3-13 on the highway-yet and still the juice was worth the squeeze when he only has 12% of rostership.

Other landmines for today are Miles Mikolas. He has been shockingly effective and now he gets the Pirates. If there has ever been a trap play...You really don't need to take the chance. What, you want 5.0 IP of 1 ER, a 1.00 WHIP and 3 strikeouts? That's not worth the chance of obliteration. However in this setting you can't go against the Cardinals as an entire team. I also do have Mlodzinski rolling for me-I parked him at #20 yet he has only 1% of rostership. We want Bubba dangit! Don't be surprised if the Buccos give the Cardinals hell early in this one. Dudes got an xwOBA of .216 for today which is actually elite status

It's the debut of Ryne Nelson in the rotation now that Burnes is on the IL for shoulder soreness. He tossed just under 70 pitches last time out and could go closer to 80 here, though I'm not sold on the quality yet. Let him have a day as a proper starter and then I can assess.

Griffin Canning has been far better than expected, especially with his slider precision. This is too much to ask, though. I don't think the ceiling is worth this.

Jake Irvin (Nats) I'd have him in the second tier if not for Irvin falling to 90.1 mph in his last start. He was sitting 92 mph previously. Something feels wrong. However he is up against Luis Ortiz-his whiff potential is always there, but can he locate the heaters upstairs for enough strikes? The Nats got bats and they look good to go for the FF in this one.

I will be back much later on. I have already had today's offerings monitored-however I may end up betting OUT of one or more so it's best to update after the dust settles

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Oh baseball Gods-please don't have Nick Martinez get to fuckin around as it's apparent that he is coming out for the 6th frame

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And BTW there's an 88% chance of rain for the Snakes/Blunts game-be advised

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E-Rod has a ERA that is exploded and not indicative of how he pitches against the Blunts-a team that he has K'd up 32.2% of their 59 AB. His xwOBA for this one is in the .320 range-which is similar to Ranger Suarez- who is fresh off the IL and more than likely won't go the 5 frames necessary for a win qualification. By that time the Snakes will have figured out that he is just trying to get over. and out I have E-'Rod at #16 and Ranger at #18 so there's an underdog with a higher ranking here.

Tanner Bibee...he's not the arm of last season to be true-but HE'S FOUND HIS CUTTER, and I expect for this to ne in his repertoire from here on out. Bowden Francis has a sweet deliver and actually I have him #13 to Bibee's #9; but he's been not utilizing all of his arsenal for some odd reason lately. It's been 4 seamers and splitters basically and the rare curveball. So guys are sitting on his splitter knowing that it will come routinely after he throws a 4 seamer. This has to be fixed. Anyway through the first two games of this series the Jays were -158 on average and today only -115. I wouldn't be mad if the Guardians drop this one-not having Jose Ramirez is a major blow to their lineup

Royals (Lorenzen) is a gas can (xwOBA .442) and so is Gibson (xwOBA .345) and combined they have the highest xwOBA for today's slate of games-therefore I went with the OVER.

The lowest combined xwOBA's for today are the A's with Sears (..225) and Cabrerea (.172). The roof will also be open and you already know what that means for the total-joes are completely decidedly on the OVER and I am siding with the books and getting in the short line.

Taj Bradley has an xwOBA of .333 vs Bombers and Warren a ghastly .449. the Rays play in a cookie cutter stadium with the same dimensions as Yankee Stadium-so when I tell you that mediocre pitching vs these teams usually will lead to a lack of success for pitchers just know that hope isn't a good strategy

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CRUMBS PODS ARE 28-8 so far-looking for more today

The highest rated arm that I have for the CRUMBS POD is

Red Leggins Nick Martinez#10 with only 19% rostership

The top level ratios aren't pretty but he's solid, and the Nats have 275 K's this season already in 34 games-good for approx 8 K's per game. I mean what more do you want? I can definitely see the 5/3/1/K/W in him. Get it Nick-you got this

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5/4/25

Snakes+115 Rodriguez 2 UNITS
Guardians-102 Bibee 2 UNITS
Royals/Orioles OVER 9.5
A's/Fish UNDER 8.5
Rays/Bombers OVER 8.5

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NBA Clippers+100 ML 2 UNITS

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I just blasted away on a BET OUT of Arizona and another move

Blunts-125 Nola DOUBLE DOWN 2 UNITS
Red Leggins-1.5 +105 RL Lodolo 2 UNITS

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Astros-230
Giants-300
Red Leggins-190
Tigers-190

4 WAY ML PARLAY +346 ODDS

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5/3/25

Rot.#970 Guardians/Jays UNDER 4.5 -135 FF Williams/Gausman
Rot.#960 Nats/Red Leggins UNDER 4.5 FF -115 Williams/Lodolo
Rot.#964 Braves-118 Schwellenbach
Rot.#957 Snakes+107 Pfaadt
Rot.#956 Buccos-119 Falter
Rot.#975 Royals+100 Bubic

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Warriors-3.5 2nd half

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Snakes 10 hits and 2 runs; Blunts 6 hits 3 runs...darn!

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They are rooting for

Snakes
Orioles
Cardinals
Twins
Fish

I am already on a few of those-will add on Orioles, Snakes now

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Hard Rock backed bets coming up in a little bit

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I am STRICTLY utilizing what my confidant taught me about parlaying-we will see how it goes

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3 WAY ML PARLAY +187 ODDS

Red Leggins-180
Bombers-260
Giants-300

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Bounce Back Day!

5/2/25

Twinkies-107 Ryan 1 UNIT
Cardinals+107 Gray 1 UNIT
Fathers (Cease) OVER 6.5 K's (Buccos AVG 8.6K's per game anyway)
Fish+119 Bellozo 1 UNIT
Giants-1.5 -123 RL Ray 2 UNITS
Red Leggins-1.5 +122 RL Greene 2 UNITS
Nat/Red Leggins OVER 8.5 -105 1 UNIT
Bombers-1.5 -105 RL Fried 2 UNITS
Rays/Bombers OVER 8.5 -110 1 UNIT

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Clippers-3.5 2nd half

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Ok so

Knicks+100 ML

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I will be taking the Knicks this evening-just waiting for our runner to get here and then I can give you the number

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Wow! The Rays have forgotten how to hit-no sweat-I will just take my lumps for today and move on to tomorrow. There are 2 identified SIDES and TOTALS to work with so there's slim pickins.

Colin Rea pissed on the money and didn't get my 5/3/1/K/W too which didn't make me happy...

I am gonna run back Michael Wacha again tomorrow since he still only has 18% rostership

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1:00 Rot.#961 Twinkies-110 FF ML Woods-Richardson 1 UNIT
1:00 Rot.#964 Rays-1.5 +115 ML Baz 2 UNITS
1:00 Rot.#963 Royals/Rays OVER 7.5 -130 1 UNIT
1:00 Rot.#956 Metropolitans-1.5 +1115 RL Senga 2 UNITS
1:00 Rot.#955 Snakes/Metropolitans OVER 7.5 1 UNIT
9:30 Rot.#960 Giants-1.5 -105 Verlander 2 UNITS
9:30 Rot.#959 Rox/Giants OVER 7.5 1 UNIT



4 WAY ML PARLAY +5.43

Giants-275 ML
Metropolitans-170 ML
Rays-170 ML
Twinkies-110 FF ML

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Alright now that that's out the way-I will need s a few hours to see how the lines materialize for today's sides and totals

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I must be out of my mind...

Today's CRUMBS POD is

Cubs(Rea) 0%

I mean I drafted him for situations like this one so I must use him since I have him on my roster. And what's good about it-he is likely to get the 5/1/3/K/W against the Buccos

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Wanderers have left the bases loaded twice-once with one out and once with no outs and only have 1 run-that's what I mean by collateral damage-a game and outcome like this i will just throw it out and move on. It was the right call with bad luck which happens

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Blasting away on

Lakers-5.5

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Damn...I was just noticing something. The only team that has given me the double losses for my system are the Rays i this series vs the Royals, Very strange-they are a .500 team with a middling offense and middling pitching staff and yet they are blasting the Rays into submission in this series as big underdogs each night. That's awesome!

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Oh man!

Tomorrow's CRUMBS POD will obviously be my draft choice

Cubs (Rea) 0%

I got so much of a return off of his last performance I was embarrassed to mention it here on the thread because it would look like I was bragging.

This man has 0% rostership, which means that only I and the Commish would split the return if he gets the 5/3/1/K/W. We all know that Skenes is gonna get his for sure, but who wants to split a 99% guy's return? You're getting pennies on the dollar and it's basically not worth mentioning

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My MLB Record Update (Monitored at The Action Network)

148-143-10 (51%) +7.13 UNITS ROI +1.96

This is about to explode with what I am doing now tho. grecycle's thing is cool-there's just a whole lot more risk involved and one bad day can kill you betting all of that juice with 5 units at stake sometimes on a line that's -275 for instance.
Anyone who watched the Billy Walters interview clearly heard the man say that one of the worst issues for novice bettors is that they surrender too much vigorous. He is looking to make each move at the best odds and most of them at less than -110.

This plays into me going with the RL instead of the ML; and I will be upping the straight on the RL favorite side to 3 units soon. the total will stay at 1 unit because inmost cases I can only find a half or a point advantage at the most for those. As far as the sides are concerned I am seeing a +3.3 advantage for those. I am testing this system of mine out so I am taking it slow at first here. Y'all will know when make the switch to 3 units. If the ML's are to be involved use those specifically ONLY in ML parlays boys

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My CRUMBS POD is

Halos (Tyler Anderson#10) garnering only 18% of ownership this guy is the king of streaming and can easily get through 5 frames against a Sailors offense that is good but not great. It's puzzling that Hancock is such a prohibitive favorite for this one because the ceiling is too dang low for a guy ho hasn't perfected command of his offerings effectively; he needs to get that sinker inside and lean on the slider and changeup often. That's neither here nor there as it's not really the objective to get a team win in streaming-it's very individualized/ I can see Anderson getting through 5 and I don't see Hancock as is with eh plans that he exhibits on the bump getting through the Halos for 5 frames. An 82% share profit split is there for the money!

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NBA did me wrong yesterday, however my newfound MLB strategy is working pretty good. Are you guys seeing the type of scores that are happening?

Anyway here's today's list of my stuff

Rot.#924 Rays-1.5 +110 RL Rasmussen 2 UNITS
Rot.#923 Royals/Rays OVER 8.5 1 UNIT
Rot.#912 Blunts-1.5 -110 RL Sanchez 2 UNITS
Rot.#911 Nats/Blunts OVER 8.5 1 UNIT
Rot.#928 Wanderers-1.5 +140 RL Eovaldi 2 UNITS
Rot.#927 A's/Wanderers OVER 8 1 UNIT

ALSO Just to get it out of your systems

3 WAY ML PARLAY +264 I ODDS

Rays-185
Wanderers-150
Blunts-240