CK's 2025 MLB Thread

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I just saw something and I BET OUT of Dodgers ML by taking the Snakes+119 for the same amount risked

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5/19/25


Metropolitans/Red Sox UNDER 9
Tigers/Cardinals UNDER 8.5 Montero/Gray
Royals/Giants UNDER 7 Bubic/Ray
Astronauts+114 2 UNITS Gordon
Guadians+117 2 UNITS Allen
Cubs/Fish OVER 8.5 Brown/Cabrera
Snakes/Dodgers UNDER 9.5 Pfaadt/Knack
Brews-115 Preister

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Heat check

Grab some Bombers-1.5 +110 Fried
this to go along with the UNDER

and also 2 way the UNDER and Bombers-160 ML

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Whew! Noah Cameron gave me a sweet payday yesterday-and believe me- I was sweating it out a bit when he came out for the 6th frame and promptly gave up a dinger to Jordan Walker. He was pulled immediately after that and I got my wish with 6.1 frames and a 3/1/K/W. It felt like winning the Super Bowl when I got the call from the Commish.

Okay so after sniffing around a bit-I decided to go with one of my draft choices from last year that I have stashed in

Zebby Matthews who has 14% rostership and a sweet payout should he get the coveted 5/3/1/K/W. The Brews don't scare anyone with their bats of late, but this is indeed risky given the clear fact that the Brews are in a state of desperation

BUT FORGET ABOUT THAT IT'S ABOUT DANG TIME. Matthews hasn't been as electric in Triple-A as of late, mostly due to his lack of slider dominance, and despite getting a hefty serving of the bigs last year, I'm treating this like a mini-debut. If I were you, I'd roster Zebby and possibly play it safe in some leagues. This isn't your typical 10 teamer guy you take to remodel landscape your front yard.


1:30 Buccos-112 Skenes
1:30 Tigers/Jays UNDER 8.5
1:30 Guardians/Red Leggins UNDER 9
1:30 Braves-124 Schwellenbach
2:00 Royals-110 Wacha
2:00 Cardinals/Royals UNDER 8.5
4:00 Sailors/Fathers UNDER 7.5 Woo/King
4:00 A's/Giants UNDER 8.5
7:00 Metropolitans/Bombers UNDER 8.5 Peterson/Fried

Really brief-the Blunts were -320 yesterday and today are slight underdogs. Berrios is GOLD at home and at the same time the Tigers have a crisp pen. I fully expect the Guardians to win this one-but Ortiz also has spells where he forgets his command-Abbott is not to worry much about-he's in good form. The Braves have been underdogs each of the first two games in Beantown and now are favored. The Royals are close to cracking the Cardinals code and losing yesterday 1-0 is cause for a slow burning under coupled with a Royals win late in this one. Woo and King? I will take my chances-the Fathers may blow this move out of the water swinging for the fences-no team wants to get swept at home in a series. the A's and Giants also falls into the same categories as the Cardinals/Royals.

I have a ton of family baseball related stuff to do today with my son and one of his teammates at a local park. I won't be home until probably around 4:30 to 5 today-enjoy your Sunday

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The jays played for me-after the fact from my FF move-no sweat. It all comes together tomorrow

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Some of this chalk this weekend is absurd!

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3:00 Jays+100 ML FF Lauer
4:00 Rays/Fish OVER 8 Rasmussen/Alcantara
6:30 Red Leggins-103 FF ML Petty
7:00 Twinkies/Brews UNDER 7.5 Lopez/Myers
7:00 Cardinals/Royals UNDER 8.5 -105 Mikolas/Cameron
7:00 Braves/Red Sox UNDER 9.5 -120 Holmes/Giolito
7:00 Astronauts+104 Blanco 3 UNITS
8:30 Sailors/Fathers UNDER 8.5 -120 Hancock/Pivetta
9:00 A's/Giants UNDER 8 Severino/Roupp

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BET OUT of the Metropolitans/Bombers UNDER by taking the OVER 10. Something is p with this game

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Get down on

Metropolitans/Bombers UNDER 9.5

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For my CRUMBS POD today I am rolling with

(Royals) Noah Cameron. He kept the lights on with 6 frames earlier this year for me n a spot start when Cole Ragans was on the IL. This will in all likelihood be a very short stay on this level as Lugo isn't expected to be out for any sort of significant time.

This guy has 0% rostership and you know me-I am looking to always find a way to make 5 dimes or so on one move. I haven't figured out how I am gonna use him in this conventional way yet-gimme some hours

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Hard Rock backed TOTALS - will be on these too -LIVE BET in on them if you are tardy to the party

Metropolitans/Bombers UNDER 8.5
Tigers/Jays UNDER 8.5
Braves/Red Sox UNDER 7.5
Cardinals/Royals UNDER 8.5
Astronauts/Wanderers UNDER 7.5
Twinkies/Brews UNDER 7.5
Sailors/Fathers UNDER 8.5
A's/Giants UNDER 7.5

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5/16/25

6:30 Red Leggins+100 FF Singer
7:00 Fish+100 ML FF Meyer
7:00 Rays/Fish OVER 8 or 8.5 depending on your book Bradley/Meyer
7:30 Cardinals+126 Pallante (FULL GAME)
8:00 Brews+105 FF ML Patrick
7:00 Braves-110 Sale FULL GAME
7:00 Jays+105 FF Francis

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By far the best two moves on the board for the books are the Metropolitans and the Cardinals for value and situation with plus money involved

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Some more oddity here. The Jays were just -178 in their last game and are now underdogs of -130 and rising to the Tigers-how does that happen? The same can be said of the Braves who were -210 their last game and are now underdogs to the Red Sox. Talk about variance! Tigers and Red Sox are looking pretty good right now-I may break my cycle of taking home underdogs FF ML for the Jays game-that variance is pretty fierce and very noticeable. Let's check out how the line moves on those and get back to them after the books assume their position

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Right off the top there's line of the day. No doubt who the books will be rooting for in this one.

The Fish are 16-26 and the Rays are 20-23. The Fish are FAVORED -112 (O/U 8). This is definitely going to inspire bettors to take the Rays and eventually make the Fish into a dangerous underdog. When that happens I will be on them and the OVER. Let the patient waiting begin

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CRU,MBS POD Record 34-15 now and Bryce was one K away from gold-just about sums up my season LOL!

Today I am rolling with Cade Horton (Cubs) He only has 15% rostership which makes for a good split. I wonder if we'll see more than cut-fastball + sweeper. I love the fastball's ability to induce outs and the White Sox should abide.

Ok I will be back later on with the goods

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Ok so at some point in these crazy ass NBA playoffs order has o be restored in terms of a good number right?

The NBA 216.5 has gone over 70% this season

https://www.teamrankings.com/nba/odds-history/over-under/?season-filter=2024

Hell even the 216 is 57%

Only once during this series have the teams combined to have less than 216 points and that was game 4. this is an evident market over correction

Thunder/Nuggets OVER 216

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Right back at ya

Osvaldo Bido has only 2% rostership-so you know that the books are rooting for the A's today and so am I. They have an amazing way of blasting away in road games after giving up 7 or more runs their previous games. Matt Sauer in only (get this) 8 at bats vs the Athletics he has an ERA of .625; BOP .625; 1.500 SLG and 2.125 OPS with 2 dingers and a double. Bido 22 AB; 6K's; 2 BB; .227 ERA, 292 OBP; .364 SLG; .655 OPS

I rarely go over -140 for a favorite so the RL it is for the Orioles

Pale Hose (Wilson) OVER 3.5 K's +100
A's+175 Bido
Orioles-1.5 +145 RL Sugano 2 UNITS

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CRUMBS STREAMER POD RECORD 34-14

Alright-today it's basically who isn't starting deGrom and Brown-after that it's slim pickins! Sugano has shown stellar command-but not enough K's. So I am forced to dig deep into my bag of tricks to come up with a guy who can give me the golden 5/3/1/K/W ratio.
The Red Leggins are averaging AVERAGING 9 K's per game-so Bryce Wilson (Pale Hose) it is. He has a 3.24 WRA on the highway and his xwOBA is set at .322 which isn't that great-but he does average 18.8 K's vs the Red Leggins lineup and an ERA of .222 and an 88.7% exit velocity.

CRUMBS POD

Bryce Wilson (Pale Hose)

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Welp-can't say that I didn't tell y'all that Weathers is back and he looked fantastic!

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Damn.... I got Aaron Judged in the 8th frame! Dude is so awesome. He blasted the Sailors away

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El Paso NBA

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Ok here are my TOTALS (Already have Red Sox/Tigers UNDER 7.5)

Buccos/Metropolitans OVER 8 -110
Nats/Braves OVER 9 -115
Rox/Wanderers OVER 9 -109

That's it for MLB for today-lemme sniff out the NBA

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Taillon allowed NINE hits and 5 earned in his last start vs the Metropolitans-so he is in bad form. From the research the Cubs are 0-8 straight up when he takes the mound following a bad quality start.

Let's start whittling away at the big ML parlay starting now with this and continue on selectively chipping

Fish+0.5 -105 FF RL Weathers

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Moving on

7:00 Rot.#907 Nats+145 Parker 2 UNITS
6:00 Rot.#934 Cardinals+125 Gray 2 UNITS

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Ryan Weathers (Fish) He's back! And throwing hard in his rehab starts! And it's the Cubs in a fresh off the injured list start. Stash him on the IL, then leave him there for today. We'll assess what to do after his outing tonight.

It's still looking like a good spot to fade the ML parlay and grab some Fish+1.5 tonight-from what I know about James Taillon he's not the best at K's. It's the Marlins and despite Taillon's lack of strikeouts, he could return one per inning. I would leave him off of my squads altogether

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Damn..so as vast as my knowledge of arms is I can't find much on him other than he missed some time in 2024 with a stress reaction in his right shoulder. Let's stand down on this-I think that this may be the game when Brandon Hyde figures out that he may need to start going the route of mixing and matching his pitching staff with complete bullpen games to save his job

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Hold on for a minute-I need to research Chayse McDermott of the Orioles-need to see if his skill set matches up with the Twinkies batters in game 2

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Oh forgot one

Brews+120 Henderson

Only if you know your arms would you take this move. I have Gavin trending DOWN and actually I have Henderson ranked above him so that tells you what kind of 4 seamer he has. he throws it 53% of the time and his changeup 40% with an occasional cutter and slider. Good stuff boys and girls

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Just an FYI

I will be on the Twinkies for BOTH games today vs the Orioles-just a matter of what number I end up getting

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STRAIGHTS

Twinkies+100 Oder Game 1 2 UNITS
Sailors+100 Castillo 2 UNITS

I will have more for the evening slots-but get on these now because of the value involved

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6:30 Rot.#916 Red Sox/Tigers UNDER 7.5 -125 Dobbins/Skubal

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Twins+100 (Game 1)
Sailors+100

2 WAY +300 ODDS

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ML PARLAY +1685

Metropolitans-275
Cubs-225
Tigers-225
Dodgers-275
Fathers-190
Blunts-185
Red Leggins-230
Wanderers-275

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I just grabbed some more A's

A's+145 FF ML