Jersey...would you mind PM'ing me the updated percentage list?
If not, it's fine, I'll just use the lastest one you have posted.
If not, it's fine, I'll just use the lastest one you have posted.
-
Comment -
Thanks guys, running late, writeups to follolw later:
DAY 25 - July 4th PLAYS:
CINN -127
COL -200
CWS -122
STL/CINN UNDER 9.5 -110
NYM/PHILLY UNDER 10 -110
LOS/SD UNDER 8 -115
ARIZ/COL UNDER 9.5 -110Comment -
DAY 24 - July 3rd Results:
CWS +122 (7%,16%) WINNER
ATL/WAS UNDER 9.5 -120 (48%,58%) LOST
NYM/PHILS UNDER 10 -120 (49%,40%) BEST BET WINNER
STL/CINN UNDER 9.5 -110 (50%,45%) BEST BET LOST
2-2 -0.08
Really felt bad on that STL/Cinn under. Only 3 runs scored going into the 8th inning, then Pujols grand slam then worse. OUCH!
YTD (24 DAYS)
9% and Up Plays: 45-21 68% +21.71
UNDERS: 38-22-2 63% +13.25
Total: 83-43-2 65% +34.96
Overall 117-83-4 59% +24.01Comment -
Been busy busy.
For the Best Bets: 3 of them today
CHICAGO WHITE SOX -122 BEST BET
Sorry this game is already playing of course, but just to show you its a huge 20% difference. 2 teams continuing to go in opposite directions. Again sorry for posting so late today.
CWS 41-99 41%
KAN 21-100 21%
Also their recent streaks:
CWS 39-90 43%
KAN 3-36 8%
NYM/PHILLY UNDER 10 -110 BEST BET
NYM 23-106 22%
PHI 15-81 19%
41%
These last 12 games stats are very very low. Fernando Nieve has a 2.25 ERA and last 3 starts 2.35 ERA. MOYER hasn't done well 6.05 and 5.82, but when he faced the mets on June 11th, he only gave up 3 runs in 6 innings, in the Phils 6-3 win.
LOS/SD UNDER 8 -115 (45%,45%) BEST BET
LOS 21-96 22%
SDG 23-98 23%
45%
Both terrible Recent streaks:
LOS 7-57 12%
SD 10-53 19%
Here's the numbers for all the plays today:
DAY 25 - July 4th PLAYS:
CINN -127 (-1%,9%)
COL -200 (9%,4%)
CWS -122 (8%,20%) BEST BET
STL/CINN UNDER 9.5 -110 (51%,45%)
NYM/PHILLY UNDER 10 -110 (50%,41%) BEST BET
LOS/SD UNDER 8 -115 (45%,45%) BEST BET
ARIZ/COL UNDER 9.5 -110 (59%,48%)
Comment -
Just wanted to throw this out there (Its not a system play) , yesterday when I was checking the stats, whenever a team scored in 6 or more innings a game (I only came across 4 instances of this recently) they were 4-0 in the next game played.
Yesterday, Washington and Cleveland both scored in 6 innings each.
Washington (+114) beat ATL today 5-3. So now its 5-0.
Cleveland -115 plays Oakland later.Comment -
Thanks again
Parlayed NYM/PHILLY UNDER 10 -110 BEST BET
with giants ml and angels ml and it went in! +450
Cant wait for your picks tonight
Do you have any stats for the under best bet picks so far? I think you are doing really good with themComment -
1-2 on the sides and 2-2 on the totals...I guess the Col loss hurt a lot if you played it to win 1 unit...
GL todayComment -
Bit by the late innings again, and bit by that COL heavy chalk
1st 5 innings would of been 5-2, but thats not our system.
DAY 25 - July 4th RESULTS:
CINN -127 (-1%,9%) WINNER
COL -200 (9%,4%) LOST
CWS -122 (8%,20%) BEST BET LOST
STL/CINN UNDER 9.5 -110 (51%,45%) WINNER
NYM/PHILLY UNDER 10 -110 (50%,41%) BEST BET WINNER
LOS/SD UNDER 8 -115 (45%,45%) BEST BET LOST
ARIZ/COL UNDER 9.5 -110 (59%,48%) LOST
3-4 -2.47Comment -
DAY 26 - July 5th PLAYS:
CINN +130 (-1%,12%)
CWS EV (8%,19%) BEST BET
LAA-167 (7%,9%)
STL/CINN UNDER 8.5 -110 (51%,46%)
NYM/PHILLY UNDER 8.5 -105 (49%,38%) BEST BET
GL TODAY!
YTD (25 DAYS)
9% and Up Plays: 46-23 67% +19.49
UNDERS: 40-24-2 63% +13.00
Total: 86-47-2 65% +32.49
Overall 120-87-4 58% +21.54
Comment -
I'll do the breakdown later, but overall they are:
28-24 54% +1.91
Comment -
Hey Jersey,
Some backchecking of this system produced some interesting results. It has been fairly profitable this season so far but in years past has broken about even; however, if you bet only on home teams who scored in 6 or more innings the previous game (whether on the road or at home) would have produced the following results:
2005: 22-7 for $1575 betting for (to win 1 unit or risking 1 unit depending on line)
2006: 23-19 for $335
2007: 28-22 for -$30
2008: 25-13 for $1105$
2009: so far 13-6 for $580
So this system is fairly profitable over all, not sure about jumping on it halfway through the season since 2 seasons have yielded less than the profit this system has achieved so far so it might be a loser from this point on. But definitely great system starting next year.Comment -
I've backtracked this for 2009 as well and I have it at 19-17 for the year. It is especially poor during the first month of the season (which makes sense).
Recently, the past 60 days it is 13-5 on the ML and 11-7 on the RL (if the 6-inning scoring team is considered the favorite in the next game). I will do a little more back checking to see how it fairs when the opponent changes between the 2 games, if they have a day off in between, etc.Comment -
These are the games I have down as 6-inning or more scoring, regardless - home or away:
Date Team #i Inn Sc. NextGame
06-Apr ARI 6 Lost
07-Apr SF 6 Lost
09-Apr CLE 6 Lost
10-Apr MINN 6 Lost
10-Apr DET 6 Won
13-Apr WAS 6 Won
13-Apr TOR 6 Lost
13-Apr TB 6 Lost
15-Apr TOR 6 Won
15-Apr TEX 6 Lost
18-Apr CLE 6 Lost
19-Apr LOS 6 Lost
22-Apr TB 7 Lost
22-Apr DET 6 Lost
24-Apr TOR 6 Lost
25-Apr PITT 6 Won
25-Apr NYY 6 Lost
26-Apr LAA 6 Won
28-Apr SEA 6 Lost
29-Apr SF 6 Won
02-May KC 7 Won
05-May STL 6 Won
12-May COL 6 Lost
13-May ATL 6 Won
13-May HOU 6 Won
13-May MINN 6 Won
21-May PHI 7 Won
21-May MINN 6 Won
25-May CWS 7 Won
10-Jun STL 6 Won
11-Jun TB 6 Won
13-Jun LAA 7 Won
15-Jun MILW 6 Won
16-Jun TB 6 Lost
17-Jun MILW 6 Lost
18-Jun TOR 6 Lost
18-Jun ARI 6 Lost
23-Jun BOS 6 Won
25-Jun NYY 6 Won
27-Jun CWS 6 Won
29-Jun MILW 6 Won
03-Jul CLE 6 Won
03-Jul WAS 6 Won
24-19 56%
7-14 early on, then 17-5 last 60 days, and 16 of last 20 80%.
Please check yours with mine.Comment -
I get the exact same results, but remember, this system is far more profitable if you bet the team at HOME. If the team scores in 6 or more innings the previous game (whether on the road or at home, doesn't matter), then bet them the next game at home is 13-6 so far this season. 2004 however was largely not profitable using this system.Comment -
-Comment -
tuscani, you're right, I forgot to mention that I only counted them if they scored in 6 or more innings AND actually won that game. For example, WSH on 4/13 did not win so I did not count it.
I did some more analysis. Again assuming the team WON the game where they scored in 6 or more innings. Excluding April to allow teams to settle into rotations etc:
ML: 14-5
RL (+1.5): 16-3
RL (-1.5): 12-7
Next game was next day (ML): 14-4
Next game was w/ same opponent (ML): 10-2Comment -
Assuming the team won didn't make that much of a difference in terms of final profit over the last 5 years although it did help the system remain more in the positive. 2004 was just a bitch for this system and it lost regardless.
+1.5 would have gained 1 W in 2008/2009 that I see so far but it would have lost you far more $ on the vig for the losses.Comment -
Thanks guys, not looking good for today right now. Need White Sox to come back.Comment -
Just a little xtra for you guys
TB small slump in scoring:
TB 3-27 11% and 7-36 19%
TEX 15-33 45% and 18-60 30%
+
Feldman - a hot pitcher at HOME
=
NO SCORE 1ST INNING EV 1.2 units
TEX TO SCORE 1ST +140 1 unit
IF Texas' Feldman gets 3 quick outs in top of 1st:
You win .20 if TEX scores in btm 1st or
You win .20 if TB scores first in 2d or later inning or
You win 2.60 if Tex scores first in 2d or later inning.
3 OUTS and your guaranteed $$$
Comment -
DAY 26 - July 5th RESULTS:
CINN +130 (-1%,12%) LOST
CWS EV (8%,19%) BEST BET LOST
LAA-167 (7%,9%) WINNER
STL/CINN UNDER 8.5 -110 (51%,46%) LOST
NYM/PHILLY UNDER 8.5 -105 (49%,38%) BEST BET WINNER
2-3 -1.10Comment -
Ok, Looking to get back on track today!
5 PLAYS - 5 WINNERS!!!!!
DAY 27 - July 6th PLAYS:
NYY -143 (3%,13%) BEST BET
WAS +175 (-8%, 11%) BEST BET
CINN/PHILLY UNDER 9 -125 (51%,48%)
ARI/SD UNDER 10.5 -110 (48%,45%) BEST BET
DET/KC UNDER 9 -115 (49%,48%)
NYY 36 89 0.40 0.13 12-28 43%
TOR 24 90 0.27 6-30 20%
13% and Current streaks show 2 teams going opposite directions!
COL 22 93 0.24 13-66 20%
WAS 30 86 0.35 0.11% 12-25 48%
11% and Great Streak Support! Luv the +175 in this spot, even going up against Col's Marquis, who is by the way only 2-4 against Washington.
CIN 25 89 0.28 11-36 31%
PHI 18 88 0.20
0.48
Philly still below average combined with Hamels career ERA of 1.25 and WHIP of 0.944 against Cincy = UNDER
ARI 23 103 0.22 11-57 19%
SDG 25 110 0.23 15-74 20%
0.45
Both teams below average and streaks support the UNDER especially at 10.5!
DET 26 104 0.25 8-43 19%
KAN 25 107 0.23 9-52 17%
0.48
Same here as both teams below average and streaks support the UNDER
LETS MAKE MONEY!!!
YTD (26 DAYS)
9% and Up Plays: 47-25 65% +18.49
UNDERS: 41-25-2 62% +12.90
Total: 88-50 64% +31.39
Overall 123-90-4 58% +21.68Comment -
The Ari/Sdg game is an oddball. 10.5 is ridiculously high but both starting pitchers have absolutely brutal numbers which is what is inflating this line. Garland gave up 6 ER last outing against SD and has a >7.5 ERA at home!Comment -
DAY 27 RESULTS
1-4 -378
Here's the OVERALL BALANCE SHEET for the LAST 17 DAYS:
DATE DAY # W L T Units W L T % YTD Units BB W BB L Units BB W BB L % Units
20-Jun 11 2 8 0 -8.50 62 45 3 58% 10.06 1 2 -1.75 9 7 56% 0.46
21-Jun 12 8 5 0 2.13 70 50 3 58% 12.19 3 1 2.00 12 8 60% 2.46
22-Jun 13 4 1 0 2.82 74 51 3 59% 15.01 1 1 -0.18 13 9 59% 2.28
23-Jun 14 3 5 0 -2.65 77 56 3 58% 12.36 1 2 -1.25 14 11 56% 1.03
24-Jun 15 6 2 0 3.70 83 58 3 59% 16.06 3 2 0.70 17 13 57% 1.73
25-Jun 16 2 4 0 -2.95 85 62 3 58% 13.11 0 3 -3.75 17 16 52% -2.02
26-Jun 17 6 5 0 0.59 91 67 3 58% 13.70 1 2 -1.00 18 18 50% -3.02
27-Jun 18 6 3 0 3.38 97 70 3 58% 17.08 1 2 -1.15 19 20 49% -4.17
28-Jun 19 4 4 0 -1.26 101 74 3 58% 15.82 0 0 0.00 19 20 49% -4.17
29-Jun 20 3 4 0 -1.50 104 78 3 57% 14.32 2 1 0.95 21 21 50% -3.22
30-Jun 21 4 2 0 3.72 108 80 4 57% 18.04 2 0 3.40 23 21 52% 0.18
01-Jul 22 3 1 0 2.00 111 81 4 58% 20.04 1 1 0.00 24 22 52% 0.18
02-Jul 23 4 0 0 4.05 115 81 4 59% 24.09 2 0 2.05 26 22 54% 2.23
03-Jul 24 2 2 0 -0.08 117 83 4 59% 24.01 1 1 -0.10 27 23 54% 2.13
04-Jul 25 3 4 0 -2.47 120 87 4 58% 21.54 1 1 -0.22 28 24 54% 1.91
05-Jul 26 3 3 0 0.14 123 90 4 58% 21.68 2 1 1.09 30 25 55% 3.00
06-Jul 27 2 4 0 -2.78 125 94 4 57% 18.90 2 2 -2.53 32 27 54% 0.47
YTD (27 DAYS)
9% and Up Plays: 47-27 64% +16.06
UNDERS: 42-27-2 61% +11.65
Total: 89-54 62% +27.61
Overall 125-94-4 57% +18.90Comment -
DAY 28 - JULY 7th PLAYS:
MILW -150 (4%,9%)
NYY -143 (2%,11%)
CWS -169 (1%,11%)
LOS/NYM UNDER 8.5 -120 (48%,38%) BEST BET
DET/KC UNDER 8.5 -115 (49%,47%) BEST BET
TURNING IT AROUND TODAY!
YTD (27 DAYS)
9% and Up Plays: 47-27 64% +16.06
UNDERS: 42-27-2 61% +11.65
Total: 89-54 62% +27.61
Overall 125-94-4 57% +18.90Comment -
DAY 28 - JULY 7th RESULTS:
MILW -150 (4%,9%) LOST
NYY -143 (2%,11%) WINNER
CWS -169 (1%,11%) WINNER
LOS/NYM UNDER 8.5 -120 (48%,38%) BEST BET WINNER
DET/KC UNDER 8.5 -115 (49%,47%) BEST BET LOST
3-2 +0.35Comment -
DAY 29 - JULY 8th PLAYS:
LOS DODGERS -150 (3%,11%) BEST BET HOT PLAY
COL -170 (9%,-5%)
NYY -140 (3%,11%)
CWS -145 (0%,10%)
LOS/NYM UNDER 8.5 EV (47%,39%) BEST BET
STL/MIL UNDER 9.5 -115 (55%,48%)
TOR/TB UNDER 9 -120 (57%,48%) BEST BET
Best Bets:
I really like the Dodgers here as the Mets are just terrible right now - dead last 30th place in both my spreadsheets at 22% and 14%.
LOS 72 283 0.254
NYM 63 288 0.219
0.47
LOS 24 96 0.250 0.11
NYM 14 100 0.140
0.39
Mets are 2-36 6% compared to LOS 12-27 44%.
For even more of a comparison:
Mets are just 14 of last 100 14%
NYY 17-38 45% - Yanks have 3 more and in 62 innings less!!!
CLE 16-34 47%
LAA 17-42 40%
CWS 17-44 39%
The numbers also support LOS/NYM UNDER 8.5.
TOR/TB UNDER 9 looks good as both below average and current streaks also support the under, TOR 10-50 (20%), and TB 6-47 (13%).
Note: With CWS and CLE hot bats I seriously considered taking the Over also but the line is at 9.5, if it was at 9, I'd pull the trigger.
YTD (28 DAYS)
9% and Up Plays: 49-28 64% +16.56
UNDERS: 43-28-2 61% +11.50
Total: 92-56 62% +28.06
Overall 128-96-4 57% +19.25Comment -
I just want to throw this out there, what I've noticed recently. I'm going to track the last 3 games stats- it only consists of the amount of scored innings, no total innings or percentage needed. I noticed when these matched our picks the winning percentage was higher.
Just add the previous 3 games scored inning total:
If there is a difference of 8 or more the higher is a PLAY.
If the total is 13 or under, the Under is a play.
If the total is 21 or more, the Over is a play.
Here's the last 3 days:
Diff of 8 or more is a PLAY 2-0
13 or less is UNDER 7-0-2
21 or more is OVER 4-0
I just want to see how this does today. 7 plays fit this criteria and it matches 3 of the plays we made today, LOS, LOS/NYM Under, and TOR/TB Under, which are all the Best Bets.
PIT 3
HOU 8 Under 8 -110
ATL 6
CUB 7 Under 9 +105
WAS 6
COL 6 Under 10.5 EV
FLA 5
SFO 5 Under 8 EV
LOS 12 LOS -150
NYM 1 Under 8.5 EV
TOR 6
TAM 5 Under 9 -120
We might be able to use this a tool to get a higher winning percentage, we'll see.
Comment -
4-3 +0.30 for Jul 8thComment -
DAY 30 - JUL 9th PLAYS:
NYY -112 (2%,10%)
CWS -125 (2%,15%)
COL -125 (8%,-3%)
LOS/NYM UNDER 9 -120 (48%,40%)
BOS/KC UNDER 9.5 -115 (53%,45%)
MIL/STL UNDER 9 -110 (56%,48%)
Separate from our system -
As noted when a team scored in 6 or more innings, they have won the next game 25-19 58%, but have won 17 out of the last 21, and 20 out of the last 25 80%, and has won 7 in a row. COL -125 and TB -120 both had 6 yesterday.
13-May ATL 6 Won
13-May HOU 6 Won
13-May MINN 6 Won
21-May PHI 7 Won
21-May MINN 6 Won
25-May CWS 7 Won
10-Jun STL 6 Won
11-Jun TB 6 Won
13-Jun LAA 7 Won
15-Jun MILW 6 Won
16-Jun TB 6 Lost
17-Jun MILW 6 Lost
18-Jun TOR 6 Lost
18-Jun ARI 6 Lost
23-Jun BOS 6 Won
25-Jun NYY 6 Won
27-Jun CWS 6 Won
29-Jun MILW 6 Won
03-Jul CLE 6 Won
03-Jul WAS 6 Won
04-Jul TEX 6 Won
08-Jul COL 6
08-Jul TB 6
YTD (29 DAYS)
9% and Up Plays: 52-29 64% +18.06
UNDERS: 44-30-2 60% +10.30
Total: 96-59 62% +28.36
Overall 132-99-4 57% +19.55Comment -
Main system, 3-3 -0.60, so it was a much needed TB win today for me to get in the plus.Comment -
Here's the last 27 plays in the "6orMoreScInningsSystem" with closing lines:
I hope this continues in the future!
Date/Team/#Inn Sc.In/NextGameResult/NextDayline
29-Apr SF 6 Won -108
02-May KC 7 Won +120
05-May STL 6 Won -152
12-May COL 6 Lost -150
13-May ATL 6 Won -191
13-May HOU 6 Won -114
13-May MIN 6 Won -111
21-May PHI 7 Won +152
21-May MIN 6 Won -141
25-May CWS 7 Won +178
10-Jun STL 6 Won -116
11-Jun TB 6 Won -250
13-Jun LAA 7 Won -179
15-Jun MIL 6 Won -142
16-Jun TB 6 Lost +105
17-Jun MIL 6 Lost -105
18-Jun TOR 6 Lost -102
18-Jun ARI 6 Lost +119
23-Jun BOS 6 Won -167
25-Jun NYY 6 Won -171
27-Jun CWS 6 Won +100
29-Jun MIL 6 Won +111
03-Jul CLE 6 Won -113
03-Jul WAS 6 Won -102
04-Jul TEX 6 Won +126
08-Jul COL 6 Won -137
08-Jul TB 6 Won +108
YTD: 27-19 59%
STREAK: 9 WINS +9.45 units
LAST 23: 19-4 83% +22.99
LAST 27: 22-5 82% +24.69
Comment -
DAY 31 - JULY 10TH PLAYS:
COL -140 (9%,-3%)
PHILLY -164 (4%,9%)
CWS +112 (3%,12%) BEST BET
CINN/NYM UNDER 8.5 EV (47%,43%) BEST BET
SD/SF UNDER 8.5 +105 (48%,48%)
GOOD LUCK!
YTD (30 DAYS)
9% and Up Plays: 54-30 64% +18.81
UNDERS: 45-32-2 58% +8.95
Total: 99-62 62% +27.76
Overall 136-102-4 57% +19.95Comment -
Jersey, as pointed out before: If you use the 6+ innings system but only bet when the team is at home the next game, the system is much more profitable.Here's the last 27 plays in the "6orMoreScInningsSystem" with closing lines:
I hope this continues in the future!
Date/Team/#Inn Sc.In/NextGameResult/NextDayline
29-Apr SF 6 Won -108
02-May KC 7 Won +120
05-May STL 6 Won -152
12-May COL 6 Lost -150
13-May ATL 6 Won -191
13-May HOU 6 Won -114
13-May MIN 6 Won -111
21-May PHI 7 Won +152
21-May MIN 6 Won -141
25-May CWS 7 Won +178
10-Jun STL 6 Won -116
11-Jun TB 6 Won -250
13-Jun LAA 7 Won -179
15-Jun MIL 6 Won -142
16-Jun TB 6 Lost +105
17-Jun MIL 6 Lost -105
18-Jun TOR 6 Lost -102
18-Jun ARI 6 Lost +119
23-Jun BOS 6 Won -167
25-Jun NYY 6 Won -171
27-Jun CWS 6 Won +100
29-Jun MIL 6 Won +111
03-Jul CLE 6 Won -113
03-Jul WAS 6 Won -102
04-Jul TEX 6 Won +126
08-Jul COL 6 Won -137
08-Jul TB 6 Won +108
YTD: 27-19 59%
STREAK: 9 WINS +9.45 units
LAST 23: 19-4 83% +22.99
LAST 27: 22-5 82% +24.69
16-6 so far this season.Comment
