Tracking "Number of Innings in which a Run is Scored In" SYSTEM

[JerseyShop101]

Rough Diamond day for me: 2-6 -5.05


Since All Star Break (26 days):Sides14%and Up: 29-19 (60%) +6.01Unders: 50-33-4 (60%) +13.55Total: 79-52-4 (60%) +19.56Teams 31%and Up (min 7% diff)LAST 21 Days: 52-43-1 (55%) +5.10

[JerseyShop101]

Wednesday Plays: (Only 4)

[JerseyShop101]

3-1 +2.20 yesterday.

Since All Star Break (27 days):Sides14%and Up: 29-19 (60%) +6.01Unders: 50-33-4 (60%) +13.55Total: 79-52-4 (60%) +19.56Teams 31%and Up (min 7% diff)LAST 22 Days: 55-44-1 (55%) +7.30

[JerseyShop101]

Thursday plays:

[threeg5]

Thursday plays:

that image thing ain't working on my browser what about everyone elses?

[EXhoosier10]

that image thing ain't working on my browser what about everyone elses?

I think the pictures don't work a day or 2 later. Gunna make it hard for anybody who is new to the thread

[JerseyShop101]

Oops, sry guys.

1-1 0.00 yesterday.

Very big card for Friday with a whopping 10 plays making the cut (9 sides and 1 Under)............

[JerseyShop101]

Friday plays:

Atl (12%) -136
KC (11%) EV
Tex (10%) +128
Min (10%) -180
Ari (10%) -110
Oak (10%) -152
SF (8%) -133
Laa (8%) -147
NYY (7%) -155
Cubs/Pitt (45%) Under no line yet

[JerseyShop101]

NEW SYSTEM - INDIVIDUAL TEAM TOTALS

With the 4-6 day yesterday, the normal system has been staying stagnant, so doing a new approach.

Looking over the past stats- standing out has been playing the Under for the lower percentage and playing Over for the Higher percentage teams INDIVIDUAL TEAM TOTALS.

Using the Last 10 days and giving each team a RATING of +1 for each "4 or more innings scored", and a - minus 1 for each "2 or less Innings Scored". 3 Innings scored is Neutral and receives a 0.

The OVER is a play if the Teams Rating is 2 or higher and the Line is 4.5 or less.

The UNDER is a play if the Teams Rating is -1 or lesser, and the line is 4.5 or higher.

SATURDAYS PLAYS ARE:

FLA Over 4.5 -110
DET Under 5 -115
PHI Under 4.5 -115
CIN Under 4.5 +103
ARI Under 4.5 -125
PIT Under 4.5 -105

[JerseyShop101]

New System started off with a win!

FLA Over 4.5 -110
DET Under 5 -115
PHI Under 4.5 -115
CIN Under 4.5 +103
ARI Under 4.5 -125
PIT Under 4.5 -105 - Only 1 run scored - WINNER

In a rush to ensure I got my Pit Under, I didn't look back at my sheet to notice that the Cubs were an Under play with this system also.

Here is todays chart:

Team/Rating/Play
FLA 3 OVER 4.5 -110
MIL 2
TAM 2
ATL 1
LAA 1
NYY 1
TEX 1
COL 0
HOU 0
KAN 0
MIN 0
STL 0
BOS -1
OAK -1
WAS -1
ARI -2 UNDER 4.5 -125
CWS -2
SDG -2
TOR -2
CIN -3 UNDER 4.5 +103
CLE -3
CUB -3 ?
NYM -3
DET -4 UNDER 5 -115
PHI -4 UNDER 4.5 -115
SEA -4
SFO -4
BAL -5
PIT -6 Under 4.5 -105 WINNER
LOS -7

On the next page I will show you yesterdays chart, which has alongside the teams rating, the actual runs scored for every team.

[JerseyShop101]

FRIDAY's CHART and RESULTS:

Team/Rating/Actual Runs Scored
ATL 3 2 L
TAM 3 2 L
FLA 2 6 W
KAN 2 0 L
COL 1 5 P
MIN 1 11 W
NYY 1 4 L
OAK 1 7 W
HOU 0 2
MIL 0 11 W
STL 0 9
TEX 0 4
ARI -1 4 P
BOS -1 8 L
LAA -1 6 L
WAS -1 2 W
CWS -2 8 L
SDG -2 2 W
SEA -2 2 W
SFO -2 0 W
CIN -3 0 W
CLE -3 0 W
CUB -3 17 L
TOR -3 5 L 5--3
DET -4 1 W
NYM -4 3 W
PHI -4 3 W
BAL -5 16 L
LOS -5 1 W
PIT -6 2 W 5--1

The -2s and lesser finished 10-4 regardless of the Tm Total Line. -4 and lesser a nice 5-1.

I am using for the Unders the line of 4.5 or higher, to see if we get a higher win percentage.

The OVER is a play if the Teams Rating is 2 or higher and the Line is 4.5 or less.
The UNDER is a play if the Teams Rating is -2 or less, and the line is 4.5 or higher.

[JerseyShop101]

Help me root these in, I couldn't parlay the team totals at Cris, so I put in a 1st5Inn parlay using these same games:

08/15/2009 by ONLINE at 12:02 PM [Ticket #: 60553290] PARLAY (6 TEAMS)
08/15/2009 @ 12:05 PM MLB [1902] TOTAL u5½-105 (1H PIT PIRATES vrs 1H CHI CUBS)( Z DUKE-L / GORZELANNY-L ) WINNER
08/15/2009 @ 03:10 PM MLB [1904] TOTAL u4½-105 (1H PHI PHILLIES vrs 1H ATL BRAVES)( C HAMELS-L / K KAWAKAMI-R ) WINNER
08/15/2009 @ 07:10 PM MLB [1906] TOTAL u5-115 (1H LA DODGERS vrs 1H ARI D'BACKS)( H KURODA-R / D DAVIS-L )
08/15/2009 @ 05:10 PM MLB [1907] TOTAL o5-105 (1H COL ROCKIES vrs 1H FLA MARLINS)( A COOK -R / VANDENHURK -R )
08/15/2009 @ 06:10 PM MLB [1912] TOTAL u5-115 (1H WAS NATIONALS vrs 1H CIN REDS)( J MARTIN-R / J CUETO-R )
08/15/2009 @ 06:05 PM MLB [1922] TOTAL u4½-110 (1H KAN ROYALS vrs 1H DET TIGERS)( L HOCHEVAR-R / E JACKSON-R )
30.00 1459.80

2 down 4 to go.

[AceofSP2107]

i really like how you get your math and do this and am going to root it in and follow

[JerseyShop101]

Thanks AceoSp,

1st 2 in are winners!

FLA Over 4.5 -110
DET Under 5 -115
PHI Under 4.5 -115 - Only 3 runs scored - WINNER
CIN Under 4.5 +103
ARI Under 4.5 -125
PIT Under 4.5 -105 - Only 1 run scored - WINNER


Florida in a rain delay.

[JerseyShop101]

3-2 +0.85 for DAY 1

Here's the last 2 days, showing good progress, this is regardless of line:

UNDERS
-7 1--0
-6 2--0
-5 2--1
-4 5--2
Total: 10-3

-3 3--4
-2 5--2
Total: 8-6

As you can see, -4 and less is starting off great at 10-3, and -6 and less are undefeated at 3-0.


Here's todays chart and plays:

MIL 2 Over 4.5 -110
STL 2
COL 1
LAA 1
TAM 1
TEX 1
ATL 0
MIN 0
ARI -1
FLA -1
HOU -1
NYY -1
SDG -1
WAS -1
CIN -2 Under 4.5 -120
CUB -2
CWS -2 Under 4.5 -120
DET -2
KAN -2
BOS -3 Under 4.5 -110
CLE -3 Under 4.5 -125
OAK -3
TOR -3
PHI -4
BAL -5 Under 5.5 -125
NYM -5
SFO -5
PIT -6
SEA -6
LOS -7 Under 5 -115


The majority of the negative ratings have a line of 3.5 or 4, but for it to be a play, the line must be 4.5 or higher.

MIL Over 4.5 -110
CIN Under 4.5 -120
CWS Under 4.5 -120
BOS Under 4.5 -110
CLE Under 4.5 -125
BAL Under 5.5 -125
LOS Under 5 -115

[AceofSP2107]

do you mean DOG OR ANG

[Engine]

3-2 +0.85 for DAY 1

MIL 2 Over 4.5 -110
STL 2
COL 1
LAA 1<-------------Angels
TAM 1
TEX 1
ATL 0
MIN 0
ARI -1
FLA -1
HOU -1
NYY -1
SDG -1
WAS -1
CIN -2 Under 4.5 -120
CUB -2
CWS -2 Under 4.5 -120
DET -2
KAN -2
BOS -3 Under 4.5 -110
CLE -3 Under 4.5 -125
OAK -3
TOR -3
PHI -4
BAL -5 Under 5.5 -125
NYM -5
SFO -5
PIT -6
SEA -6
LOS -7 Under 5 -115<---------- Dodgers

do you mean DOG OR ANG

I would guess Dodgers...

[AceofSP2107]

Jersey... good plays today i think they still came to a positive .... i was just wondering would you be able to look into props like { teams with the most hits }when there matched up }would you be able to filter anythign like that or
( runs scored in the fist ING )

[JerseyShop101]

Jersey... good plays today i think they still came to a positive .... i was just wondering would you be able to look into props like { teams with the most hits }when there matched up }would you be able to filter anythign like that or
( runs scored in the fist ING )

My plays went 4-3 +0.35, but the on all the plays of -2 or less, they did very well again regardless of the line.

Here's Sunday's:
UNDERS-70--1-60--1-52--1-40--0-33--1-24--09--4


Here's the last 3 days:
UNDERS-71--1-62--1-54--2-45--2-36--5-29--227--13

I haven't checked into team with most hits though, something else to look at .

[JerseyShop101]

Sunday Unders
-7 0-1
-6 0-1
-5 2-1
-4 0-0
-3 3-1
-2 4-0
Total: 9-4

LAST3Days Unders
-7 1-1
-6 2-1
-5 4-2
-4 5-2
-3 6-5
-2 9-2
Total: 27-13 (68%)

[EXhoosier10]

Jersey, I was wondering what website you use to import all of your innings scored data. I'm looking around and everything I find doesn't show all 10+ innings for extra inning games.

Your help, and your system, is much appreciated

[JerseyShop101]

Jersey, I was wondering what website you use to import all of your innings scored data. I'm looking around and everything I find doesn't show all 10+ innings for extra inning games.

Your help, and your system, is much appreciated

I use sqdl and covers mainly, just add the dot com to the end of course.

[JerseyShop101]

DAY 2 4-3 +0.35

Again, taking all "Picks" regardless of line is doing very well.

Here's the Last 3 days stats:

3 DAYS:
UNDERS
-7 1--1
-6 2--1
-5 4--2
-4 5--2
-3 6--5
-2 9--2
Total: 27--13

OVERS
3 0--2
2 5--1
Total: 5--3

Grand Total: 32-16 (67%)

[JerseyShop101]

Here's Monday's Chart. My picks are in BOLD.

LOSD -7 Under 3.5 -125
PIT -6 Under 4.5 -135
SFO -6 Under 4.5 -110
NYM -5 Under 4.5 -125
BAL -4 Under 5 -115
BOS -4 Bye
DET-4 Bye
PHI -4 Bye
SDG -4 Under 3.5 -120
SEA- 4 Bye
TOR -4 Bye
ARI -3 Under 3.5 -125
CIN -3 Bye
CLE-3 Bye
CWS -3 Under 5 -130
NYY -3 Under 5 +100
OAK -3 Under 3.5 -120
CUB -2 Under 4 -130
WAS -2 Bye
ATL -1
KAN-1
HOU 0
MIN 0
TAM 0
TEX 0
LAA 1
MIL 1
COL 2 Bye
FLA 3 Bye
STL 3 Over 4 -130

[curious]

Hey Jersey, wouldn't it help the W/L ratio to filter these with the pitching matchup?

[JerseyShop101]

Hey Jersey, wouldn't it help the W/L ratio to filter these with the pitching matchup?

Yes, but just trying to see if this has potential on its own merit. Already having to make a change........

[JerseyShop101]

5-6-1 Yesterday


4 DAYS:
UNDERS
-7 2--1
-6 2--3
-5 5--2
-4 5--3--1
-3 8--7
-2 10--2
Total: 32--18--1

OVERS
3 0--3
2 5--1
Total: 5--4

Grand Total: 37--22--1 (63%)

[JerseyShop101]

CHANGE:

Changing to include 3 Innings Scored as a +.5 rating, otherwise 2/3rds (20 out of 30 would have a -2 or less rating) since so many teams are scoring in less than 3 innings.

Now instead of a rating of +2 or -2 to be a possible consideration for a play, it is now changed to +2.5 and -2.5.

Here's today's chart. My plays are in BOLD.

LOS -7.5 Under 4.5 -105
DET -4 Under 3.5 +100
PIT -4 Under 4.5 -125
SFO -4 Under 4.5 -115
NYM -3.5 Under 3.5 -120
SEA -3.5 Under 4 -105
CLE -3 Under 5 -120
OAK -3 Under 3.5 -140
ARI -2.5 Under 4.5 -125
CIN -2.5 Under 3 -130
BOS -2
TOR -2
ATL -1.5
BAL -1.5
CUB -1.5
NYY -1.5
WAS -1.5
CWS -1
SDG -1
TAM -0.5
MIN 0
PHI 0
HOU 0.5
KAN 0.5
TEX 1
LAA 2
COL 2.5 Over 5 -115
MIL 3 Over 4.5 -110
STL 3 Over 3.5 +105
FLA 5.5 Over 4.5 +105

[AceofSP2107]

yo JS again with the hits again wondering who you think your best pick would be ? LAD with a nice night bet

[EXhoosier10]

Been following this thread for a few weeks now and I'm hoping (along with my bankroll) that you've figured out another winning system.

[JerseyShop101]

yo JS again with the hits again wondering who you think your best pick would be ? LAD with a nice night bet

I luv FLA and MILW, not only for the Team Overs, but also to win their games. Small play on STL +169 or better also, (was +181 earlier).

[AceofSP2107]

I think Fla big ima go with one unit on Fla with more hits

[JerseyShop101]

FLA was a good one, I like them again today with the Over also.

[JerseyShop101]

3-5 yesterday.

Trying out Game Totals Instead. (Teams rating is the average innings scored per game in the last 10 days)

COL 3.67
FLA 3.67 FLA/HOU OVER 9.5 -120
STL 3.22 STL/LOS OVER 7 -125
LAA 3.11
MIN 3.00 MIN/TEX OVER 9 -110
TOR 3.00 BOS/TOR OVER 7.5 -120
MIL 2.89 MIL/PITT OVER 8 -115
TEX 2.89
ATL 2.75 ATL/NYM OVER 8 -120
BAL 2.67
DET 2.67
PHI 2.67
BOS 2.56
CUB 2.56 CUBS/SD OVER 6.5 -120
SDG 2.56
NYY 2.50
KAN 2.44
TAM 2.38
CWS 2.33
HOU 2.33
SFO 2.33
ARI 2.25
NYM 2.25
WAS 2.25
OAK 2.22 NYY/OAK UNDER 9 -105
PIT 2.13
LOS 2.11
SEA 2.11
CIN 2.00
CLE 1.75 LAA/CLE UNDER 10 -105

I have these games capped at least 1 run better than the current line.

[AceofSP2107]

for all you effort things will work for you JS in time but look at last night that Flo hit prop one if you had to avg today TT who would you get for the BEST OVER