Tracking "Number of Innings in which a Run is Scored In" SYSTEM

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  • JerseyShop101
    Restricted User
    • 09-04-08
    • 2704

    #1
    Tracking "Number of Innings in which a Run is Scored In" SYSTEM
    I'm making this thread to see if this "system" can be profitable, by taking (hopefully) advantage of teams scoring slumps.

    I'm tracking each teams "Number of Innings in which a Run is Scored In" for their recent games, as an indicator on how productive they are in scoring each inning. I'm using a minimum of their last 4 games in which they have only scored in 2 or less innings as a basis.

    Baltimore is currently the worst at having scored in only 9 separate innings (13 runs) in its last 8 games (72 innings).

    Kansas City has only scored in 8 separate innings (17 runs) in its last 7 games (63 innings)

    San Diego has only scored in only 8 separate innings (21 runs) in their last 6 games (62 innings).

    Florida has only scored in only 5 separate innings (12 runs) in their last 4 games (34 innings).


    Today's plays (All 1 unit) are:

    San Francisco +124
    San Francisco Scores First -145
    Florida Team Total Under 4.5 -120

    Arizona +153
    Arizona Scores First -115
    San Diego Team Total Under 4 -125



    NIRSI SYSTEM
    0-0 0.00
  • themajormt
    SBR MVP
    • 07-30-08
    • 3964

    #2
    What about Atlanta? They have had some serious draughts this year also... Is that how you spell draught by the way??
    Comment
    • JerseyShop101
      Restricted User
      • 09-04-08
      • 2704

      #3
        07-Jun06-Jun05-Jun04-Jun03-Jun02-JunATL4(8=8)00 2--113--12

      Atlanta scored in 4 separate Innings yesterday, scoring 8 runs in 8 innings, thereby ending their drought


      The hottest team is Colorado:
       07-Jun06-Jun05-Jun04-JunCOL3(7=9)4(10=9)3(11=9)4(10=9)

      Colorado has scored in 14 separate innings (38 runs) in their last 4 games (36 Innings)

      And today is no exception as they've already scored in 3 separate innings already today (4 runs), and lead STL 4-1 in the bottom of the 6th right now.
      Comment
      • G's pks
        Restricted User
        • 01-01-09
        • 22251

        #4
        2-4...but interesting...
        Comment
        • JerseyShop101
          Restricted User
          • 09-04-08
          • 2704

          #5
          REVISED:

          Here are the June games (Innings Scored in divided by Innings played)

          1-9 Jun 09
          KAN 8--63 13%
          BAL 10--62 16%
          SDG 13--79 16%
          WAS 12--63 19%
          DET 17--82 21%
          ATL 16--73 22%
          CIN 17--79 22%
          CWS 20--90 22%
          MIN 14--63 22%
          SEA 14--63 22%
          STL 18--81 22%
          TEX 16--72 22%
          LOS 17--74 23%
          FLA 19--78 24%
          OAK 19--80 24%
          PIT 19--78 24%
          ARI 18--72 25%
          MIL 19--72 26%
          SFO 19--72 26%
          BOS 17--62 27%
          CUB 18--66 27%
          NYM 17--62 27%
          TAM 17--63 27%
          LAA 18--63 29%
          NYY 21--71 30%
          HOU 23--74 31%
          CLE 20--62 32%
          PHI 21--66 32%
          TOR 23--72 32%
          COL 19--54 35%
          519--2111 25%


          Today's Plays: (6% or more difference)

          Colorado +120
          Toronto +149
          BEST BET - CLEVE -149
          Seattle -116
          Dodgers -230

          Last edited by JerseyShop101; 06-10-09, 06:11 PM. Reason: stats came out scrambled :(
          Comment
          • JerseyShop101
            Restricted User
            • 09-04-08
            • 2704

            #6
            Originally posted by JerseyShop101
            REVISED:

            Here are the June games (Innings Scored in divided by Innings played)

            1-9 Jun 09
            KAN 8--63 13% Won 9-0 KC Over 8.5
            BAL 10--62 16% Lost 4-1 Sea Under 8.5
            SDG 13--79 16% Won 3-1 LOS Under 8.5
            WAS 12--63 19% Lost 4-2 Cin Under 9
            DET 17--82 21% Won 2-1 CWS Under 8.5
            ATL 16--73 22%
            CIN 17--79 22%
            CWS 20--90 22%
            MIN 14--63 22%
            SEA 14--63 22%
            STL 18--81 22%
            TEX 16--72 22%
            LOS 17--74 23%
            FLA 19--78 24%
            OAK 19--80 24%
            PIT 19--78 24%
            ARI 18--72 25%
            MIL 19--72 26%
            SFO 19--72 26%
            BOS 17--62 27%
            CUB 18--66 27%
            NYM 17--62 27%
            TAM 17--63 27%
            LAA 18--63 29% Lost 9-5 TB Over 9
            NYY 21--71 30% Lost 6-5 Bos Push 11
            HOU 23--74 31% Won 2-1 Cubs Under 8.5
            CLE 20--62 32% Lost 9-0 KC Over 8.5
            PHI 21--66 32% Won 5-4 NYM Over 8.5
            TOR 23--72 32% PP
            COL 19--54 35% Won 4-2 Milw Under 8.5
            519--2111 25%


            Today's Plays: (6% or more difference)

            Colorado +120 Won 4-2 Milw
            Toronto +149 PP
            BEST BET - CLEVE -149 Lost 9-0 KC
            Seattle -116 Won 4-1 Balt
            Dodgers -230 Lost 3-1 SD
            6% went 2-2 -1.59 units

            The totals for the lowest and the highest teams did well.
            If you cancel out the KC/CLE game (because a low and high), the LOWEST TEAMS Under went 4-0
            HIGHEST TEAMS Over went 2-2-1
            finishing 6-2-1 together.

            I'll track this, testing the waters to see if any works well.

            Comment
            • JerseyShop101
              Restricted User
              • 09-04-08
              • 2704

              #7
              Updated thru 6/10.

                #RunScInn Tot Inn %
              KAN 11 72 0.15
              BAL 11 71 0.15
              SDG 15 88 0.17
              WAS 13 75 0.17
              CIN 19 91 0.21
              DET 19 91 0.21
              CWS 21 99 0.21

              LOS 18 83 0.22
              ATL 18 82 0.22
              TEX 16 72 0.22
              OAK 21 89 0.24
              MIN 17 72 0.24
              SEA 17 72 0.24
              PIT 21 87 0.24
              ARI 20 81 0.25
              MIL 20 81 0.25
              CUB 19 75 0.25
              NYM 19 73 0.26
              FLA 23 87 0.26
              STL 24 90 0.27
              SFO 22 81 0.27
              LAA 20 72 0.28
              CLE 20 71 0.28
              TAM 20 71 0.28

              BOS 21 70 0.30
              HOU 25 83 0.30
              PHI 24 77 0.31
              NYY 25 80 0.31
              TOR 23 72 0.32
              COL 22 63 0.35
              584 2371 0.25

              6/11 PLAYS:

              KC/CLEV UNDER 8
              BAL/SEA UNDER 9
              WAS/CINN UNDER 8.5 EV BEST BET
              DET/CWS UNDER 8.5 EV BEST BET

              BOS/NYY OVER 9.5 -115 BEST BET
              HOU/CUBS OVER 9.5 -105
              PHILLY/METS OVER 9.5 -105
              TOR/TEX OVER 10
              COL/MILW OVER 7.5 -105

              COLORADO +165
              SEATTLE +140
              CLEVELAND +118
              TORONTO +145

              Comment
              • JerseyShop101
                Restricted User
                • 09-04-08
                • 2704

                #8
                6/11 PLAYS:

                KC/CLEV UNDER 8 WON
                BAL/SEA UNDER 9 PUSH
                WAS/CINN UNDER 8.5 EV BEST BET WON
                DET/CWS UNDER 8.5 EV BEST BET WON
                6/11 Unders 3-0-1 +3.00
                6/10 Unders 4-0 +4.00
                Total Unders 7-0-1 +7.00

                BOS/NYY OVER 9.5 -115 BEST BET LOST
                HOU/CUBS OVER 9.5 -105 LOST
                PHILLY/METS OVER 9.5 -105 LOST
                TOR/TEX OVER 10 LOST
                COL/MILW OVER 7.5 -105 WON
                6/11 Overs 1-4 -3.35
                6/10 Overs 2-2-1 -0.20
                Total Overs 3-6-1 -3.55

                COLORADO +165 WON
                SEATTLE +140 WON
                CLEVELAND +118 WON
                TORONTO +145 LOST
                6/11 6% Plays 3-1 3.23
                6/10 6% Plays 2-2 -1.59
                Total 9% Plays 4-2 +2.94
                Total 6% Plays 5-3 +1.64 (big diff is the LOS -230 loss)


                Overall 15-9-2 +5.09

                The Unders are doing great, the Overs might be a fade. 6% Plays on the winning track Thursday.
                Comment
                • JerseyShop101
                  Restricted User
                  • 09-04-08
                  • 2704

                  #9
                  Updated thru 6/11.
                    #RunScInn Tot Inn %
                  KAN 13 82 0.16
                  BAL 13 80 0.16
                  SDG 15 88 0.17
                  WAS 15 84 0.18
                  ATL 19 91 0.21
                  TEX 17 81 0.21
                  CIN 21 100 0.21
                  DET 21 100 0.21

                  LOS 18 83 0.22
                  MIN 18 81 0.22
                  CUB 20 88 0.23
                  CWS 25 108 0.23
                  ARI 21 90 0.23
                  OAK 23 97 0.24
                  PIT 23 96 0.24
                  NYM 20 82 0.24
                  MIL 22 90 0.24
                  SEA 20 81 0.25
                  SFO 23 90 0.26
                  LAA 21 81 0.26
                  STL 26 99 0.26
                  HOU 26 96 0.27
                  FLA 27 96 0.28
                  CLE 23 81 0.28
                  TOR 23 81 0.28

                  BOS 23 79 0.29
                  NYY 26 89 0.29
                  PHI 27 86 0.31
                  TAM 26 80 0.33
                  COL 26 72 0.36
                  641 2632 0.24
                  Comment
                  • JerseyShop101
                    Restricted User
                    • 09-04-08
                    • 2704

                    #10
                    6/12 PLAYS:

                    KC/CINN UNDER 8.5 -110 BEST BET
                    BAL/ATL UNDER 9.5 +110 BEST BET
                    SD/LAA UNDER 9 +100
                    TEX/LOS UNDER 10 -105
                    DET/PITT UNDER 9 -120

                    BOS/PHILLY OVER 9.5 +105 BEST BET
                    NYY/NYM OVER 10.5 +100
                    COL/SEA OVER 9 -105

                    TAMPA BAY (15% diff) -245
                    COLORADO (11% diff) -152
                    LA ANGELS (9% diff) -144


                    Total Unders 7-0-1 +7.00
                    Total Overs 3-6-1 -3.55
                    Total 9% and Up Plays 4-2 +2.94
                    Total 6% and Up Plays 5-3 +1.64

                    Overall 15-9-2 +5.09

                    Comment
                    • JerseyShop101
                      Restricted User
                      • 09-04-08
                      • 2704

                      #11
                      6/12 RESULTS:

                      KC/CINN UNDER 8.5 -110 BEST BET 4-1 WINNER
                      BAL/ATL UNDER 9.5 +110 BEST BET 2-7 WINNER
                      SD/LAA UNDER 9 +100 6-11 LOST
                      TEX/LOS UNDER 10 -105 6-0 WINNER
                      DET/PITT UNDER 9 -120 3-1 WINNER

                      BOS/PHILLY OVER 9.5 +105 BEST BET 5-2 LOST
                      NYY/NYM OVER 10.5 +100 9-8 WINNER
                      COL/SEA OVER 9 -105 6-4 WINNER

                      TAMPA BAY (15% diff) -245 4-3 WINNER
                      COLORADO (11% diff) -152 6-4 WINNER
                      LA ANGELS (9% diff) -144 11-6 WINNER

                      A GREAT DAY!
                      Unders 4-1 +3.10
                      Overs 2-1 +1.00
                      Total 9% and Up Plays 3-0 +3.00
                      Total 6% and Up Plays 3-0 +3.00
                      Overall 9-2 +7.10

                      YTD:

                      Unders 11-1-1 +10.10
                      Overs 5-7-1 -2.55
                      Total 9% and Up Plays 7-2 +5.94
                      Total 6% and Up Plays 8-3 +4.64
                      Overall 24-11-2 +12.19

                      The Unders are just tearing it up 11-1-1 92%!!!!!

                      Comment
                      • Sawyer
                        SBR Hall of Famer
                        • 06-01-09
                        • 7707

                        #12
                        Looks VERY interesting mate.

                        Nice work!
                        Comment
                        • JerseyShop101
                          Restricted User
                          • 09-04-08
                          • 2704

                          #13
                          #Scored Inn Tot Innings %
                          ATL 12 100 0.12
                          BAL 15 89 0.17
                          WAS 16 92 0.17
                          KAN 16 90 0.18
                          LOS 18 92 0.20
                          SDG 19 97 0.20
                          CIN 22 109 0.20
                          OAK 23 107 0.21
                               
                          DET 24 109 0.22
                          CWS 26 117 0.22
                          TEX 20 89 0.22
                          CUB 22 97 0.23
                          PIT 24 105 0.23
                          MIL 24 98 0.24
                          SFO 24 98 0.24
                          MIN 23 90 0.26
                          SEA 23 90 0.26
                          HOU 28 105 0.27
                          ARI 26 97 0.27
                          STL 29 108 0.27
                          TOR 25 90 0.28
                          NYM 26 92 0.28
                               
                          BOS 26 91 0.29
                          FLA 30 105 0.29
                          PHI 29 100 0.29
                          LAA 26 89 0.29
                          CLE 27 90 0.30
                          NYY 31 98 0.32
                          TAM 30 88 0.34
                          COL 30 80 0.38
                          714 2902 0.25


                          6/13 PLAYS:

                          ATL/BAL UNDER 9.5 -115 BEST BET
                          KC/CINN UNDER 8.5 -110 BEST BET
                          LOS DODGERS/TEXAS UNDER 10 -120
                          OAK/SF UNDER 7.5 -120

                          BOS/PHILLY OVER 9.5 -115 BEST BET
                          FLA/TOR OVER 9 -110
                          CLE/STL OVER 10.5 +100
                          NYY/NYM OVER 11 -110
                          COL/SEA OVER Line not out yet

                          TAMPA BAY (17%) -155
                          COLORADO (12%) Line not out yet
                          LA ANGELS (9%) Line not out yet

                          YTD:
                          Unders 11-1-1 +10.10
                          Overs 5-7-1 -2.55
                          Total 9% and Up Plays 7-2 +5.94
                          Total 6% and Up Plays 8-3 +4.64
                          Overall 24-11-2 +12.19


                          I love these Unders!!!

                          Comment
                          • JerseyShop101
                            Restricted User
                            • 09-04-08
                            • 2704

                            #14
                            Correction:

                            ATL is 23 100 0.23

                            Therefore ATL (6%) -117 is a play.
                            The Under remains a play also.
                            Comment
                            • Sawyer
                              SBR Hall of Famer
                              • 06-01-09
                              • 7707

                              #15
                              I love these Unders as well!

                              GL Tonight!
                              Comment
                              • JerseyShop101
                                Restricted User
                                • 09-04-08
                                • 2704

                                #16
                                Originally posted by Sawyer
                                I love these Unders as well!

                                GL Tonight!
                                The Unders and the 9% difference and Up plays are working well, I hope it continues.

                                Comment
                                • JerseyShop101
                                  Restricted User
                                  • 09-04-08
                                  • 2704

                                  #17
                                  6/13 RESULTS:

                                  ATL/BAL UNDER 9.5 -115 BEST BET LOST
                                  KC/CINN UNDER 8.5 -110 BEST BET LOST
                                  LOS DODGERS/TEXAS UNDER 10 -120 WINNER
                                  OAK/SF UNDER 7.5 -120 WINNER

                                  BOS/PHILLY OVER 9.5 -115 BEST BET WINNER
                                  FLA/TOR OVER 9 -110 WINNER
                                  CLE/STL OVER 10.5 +100 LOST
                                  NYY/NYM OVER 11 -110 LOST
                                  COL/SEA OVER 10 -110 LOST

                                  TAMPA BAY (17%) -155 WINNER
                                  COLORADO (12%) -181 WINNER
                                  LA ANGELS (9%) -230 WINNER
                                  ATLANTA (6%) -117 LOST

                                  6/13 Results Breakdown:
                                  Unders 2-2 - 0.25
                                  Overs 2-3 -1.20
                                  9% and Up Plays 3-0 +3.00
                                  6% and Up Plays 3-1 +1.83
                                  Overall 7-6 +0.38


                                  YTD:
                                  Unders 13-3-1 81% +9.85
                                  Overs 7-10-1 41% -3.75
                                  9% and Up Plays 10-2 83% +8.94
                                  6% and Up Plays 11-4 73% +6.47
                                  Overall 31-17-2 65% +12.57

                                  If I dropped the Over Plays, I'd be 24-7-1 77% +16.32 in just 4 days.

                                  Comment
                                  • JerseyShop101
                                    Restricted User
                                    • 09-04-08
                                    • 2704

                                    #18
                                    Re: Tracking "Number of Innings in which a Run is Scored In" SYSTEM

                                    Four days in and I'm very happy with the results so far, especially on the UNDERS and 9% and Higher PLAYS (A combined 23-5-1 82% +18.79).

                                    Doing some fine tuning and making a change on my System OVER Plays, I will only take the OVER if the line is 9 or less. In my Overs where the line was 9 or less it went 5-2 (where the line was 9.5 and higher it went a terrible 2-8-1). I'll have to think about fading the 9.5s and up, but I will wait and see.

                                    Colorado is still tearing it up, scoring in 33 of their last 88 innings, an incredible 38%!

                                    YTD (4 DAYS)
                                    UNDERS 13-3-1 81% +9.85
                                    OVERS where line is 9 or less 5-2 71% +2.80
                                    OVERS where line is 9.5 or higher 2-8-1 20% -6.55
                                    All OVERS 7-10-1 41% -3.75
                                    9% and Up Plays 10-2 83% +8.94
                                    6% and Up Plays 11-4 73% +6.47
                                    Overall 31-17-2 65% +12.57

                                    Stats through 6/13:

                                    #Scored Inn Tot Innings %
                                    BAL 17 97 0.18
                                    WAS 19 101 0.19
                                    SDG 20 106 0.19
                                    KAN 19 98 0.19
                                    LOS 20 101 0.20
                                    CIN 24 118 0.20
                                    CUB 22 106 0.21

                                    OAK 25 116 0.22
                                    TEX 21 97 0.22
                                    ATL 24 109 0.22
                                    CWS 28 126 0.22
                                    DET 27 118 0.23
                                    MIL 25 107 0.23
                                    PIT 27 113 0.24
                                    SFO 26 106 0.25
                                    MIN 25 99 0.25
                                    SEA 25 99 0.25
                                    HOU 30 114 0.26
                                    ARI 28 106 0.26
                                    STL 32 117 0.27
                                    TOR 28 99 0.28
                                    CLE 28 99 0.28

                                    NYM 29 101 0.29
                                    FLA 34 114 0.30
                                    BOS 30 100 0.30
                                    PHI 33 109 0.30
                                    NYY 33 107 0.31
                                    TAM 32 96 0.33
                                    LAA 33 97 0.34
                                    COL 33 88 0.38
                                    797 3164 0.25

                                    DAY 5
                                    6/14 PLAYS:

                                    BAL/ATL UNDER 9 -105
                                    KC/CINN UNDER 8.5 -120 BEST BET
                                    LOS DODGERS/TEX UNDER 9.5 -115
                                    CUBS/MINN UNDER 8 -105

                                    NYM/NYY OVER 9 -110 BEST BET
                                    FLA/TOR OVER 8.5 -110
                                    BOS/PHILLY OVER 8.5 -120 BEST BET

                                    * COL/SEA LINE would be an OVER Play but line is more than 9 (line is 10) therefore a NO PLAY. Posting here to track to see if these plays are a good FADE to take the UNDER. (2-8-1)

                                    LA ANGELS (15%) -200
                                    TAMPA BAY (14%) -270
                                    COLORADO (13%) -135

                                    I hate laying this large juice, but it is a system play and they should win easily.

                                    LETS MAKE SOME MONEY!!!!

                                    Comment
                                    • peterpan19
                                      Restricted User
                                      • 11-02-08
                                      • 3377

                                      #19
                                      how many days do you go back for your calc. .... I think maybe something 10 days would be good a idea ?!?!

                                      GL and kill the books
                                      Comment
                                      • JerseyShop101
                                        Restricted User
                                        • 09-04-08
                                        • 2704

                                        #20
                                        Originally posted by peterpan19
                                        how many days do you go back for your calc. .... I think maybe something 10 days would be good a idea ?!?!

                                        GL and kill the books
                                        Just from 1 June, I'm still contemplating using last 100 or 150 innings, but still undecided. Might go to 1 July, and then backtrack. Have a few ideas, hopefully good results continue. Thanks!
                                        Comment
                                        • JerseyShop101
                                          Restricted User
                                          • 09-04-08
                                          • 2704

                                          #21
                                          DAY 5
                                          6/14 PLAYS:

                                          BAL/ATL UNDER 9 -105 LOST
                                          KC/CINN UNDER 8.5 -120 BEST BET WINNER
                                          LOS DODGERS/TEX UNDER 9.5 -115
                                          CUBS/MINN UNDER 8 -105 WINNER

                                          NYM/NYY OVER 9 -110 BEST BET WINNER
                                          FLA/TOR OVER 8.5 -110 WINNER
                                          BOS/PHILLY OVER 8.5 -120 BEST BETWINNER

                                          * COL/SEA LINE would be an OVER Play but line is more than 9 (line is 10) therefore a NO PLAY. Posting here to track to see if these plays are a good FADE to take the UNDER. (2-8-1)

                                          LA ANGELS (15%) -200
                                          TAMPA BAY (14%) -270 WINNER
                                          COLORADO (13%) -135

                                          I hate laying this large juice, but it is a system play and they should win easily.

                                          LETS MAKE SOME MONEY!!!!

                                          [/quote]

                                          6-1 with 3 pending and currently winning!!

                                          I LOVE THIS SYSTEM!! (at least so far )
                                          Comment
                                          • Sawyer
                                            SBR Hall of Famer
                                            • 06-01-09
                                            • 7707

                                            #22
                                            Amazing..

                                            Congrats mate!
                                            Comment
                                            • JerseyShop101
                                              Restricted User
                                              • 09-04-08
                                              • 2704

                                              #23
                                              Thanks Sawyer!

                                              DAY 5 A GREAT 9-1 DAY!!!
                                              June 14th Plays:
                                              UNDERS 3-1 +1.95
                                              OVERS where line is 9 or less 3-0 +3.00
                                              9% and Up Plays 3-0 +3.00
                                              Overall 9-1 +7.95

                                              YTD (5 DAYS)
                                              UNDERS 16-4-1 80% +11.80
                                              OVERS where line is 9 or less 8-2 80% +5.80
                                              OVERS where line is 9.5 or higher 2-8-1 20% -6.55
                                              All OVERS 10-10-1 50% -0.75
                                              9% and Up Plays 13-2 87% +11.94
                                              6% and Up Plays 14-4 78% +9.47
                                              Overall 40-18-2 69% +20.52
                                              Comment
                                              • Panekkkk
                                                SBR MVP
                                                • 03-12-09
                                                • 2430

                                                #24
                                                Hey Jersey great stuff so far ;P

                                                How are you choosing your unders? Are you just taking any matches with a team in the bottom 6 or so?

                                                Keep it up, hope it continues to hit :P
                                                Comment
                                                • JerseyShop101
                                                  Restricted User
                                                  • 09-04-08
                                                  • 2704

                                                  #25
                                                  Originally posted by Panekkkk
                                                  Hey Jersey great stuff so far ;P

                                                  How are you choosing your unders? Are you just taking any matches with a team in the bottom 6 or so?

                                                  Keep it up, hope it continues to hit :P
                                                  Thanks, for the Unders, I take any of the teams with a .21 or lower that is playing a team that is .28 or lower.
                                                  Comment
                                                  • Panekkkk
                                                    SBR MVP
                                                    • 03-12-09
                                                    • 2430

                                                    #26
                                                    Thanks :P

                                                    If this continues to hit have you given any thought on how far back you'll backlog? For example, in August, it might be wise to only use July data than using July and June data combined, or using last 15 days, or last 30 days etc.

                                                    Especially late in the season, you might dilute some trends by using data 2 or 3 months old :P
                                                    Last edited by Panekkkk; 06-14-09, 09:59 PM.
                                                    Comment
                                                    • JerseyShop101
                                                      Restricted User
                                                      • 09-04-08
                                                      • 2704

                                                      #27
                                                      Originally posted by Panekkkk
                                                      Thanks :P

                                                      If this continues to hit have you given any thought on how far back you'll backlog? For example, in August, it might be wise to only use July data than using July and June data combined, or using last 15 days, or last 30 days etc.

                                                      Especially late in the season, you might dilute some trends by using data 2 or 3 months old :P
                                                      I'm checking into several avenues of approach, I really don't want to use data that is "old" just like you said. Looking at maybe 20 games max, approx 170 innings max. But still checking into it.

                                                      Comment
                                                      • JerseyShop101
                                                        Restricted User
                                                        • 09-04-08
                                                        • 2704

                                                        #28
                                                        Stats 6/1 through 6/14:

                                                        #Scored Inn Tot Innings %
                                                        SDG 20 115 0.17
                                                        WAS 21 110 0.19
                                                        CIN 25 127 0.20
                                                        KAN 22 106 0.21
                                                        OAK 26 125 0.21
                                                        LOS 23 110 0.21
                                                        BAL 22 105 0.21

                                                        TEX 23 106 0.22
                                                        CUB 25 115 0.22
                                                        ATL 26 118 0.22
                                                        DET 29 127 0.23
                                                        CWS 31 135 0.23
                                                        PIT 29 121 0.24
                                                        SEA 26 108 0.24
                                                        MIL 29 116 0.25
                                                        MIN 27 108 0.25
                                                        STL 32 126 0.25
                                                        SFO 29 114 0.25
                                                        ARI 30 115 0.26
                                                        NYM 29 110 0.26
                                                        TOR 29 108 0.27
                                                        HOU 34 123 0.28
                                                        CLE 30 107 0.28
                                                        FLA 35 123 0.28

                                                        BOS 33 109 0.30
                                                        PHI 36 117 0.31
                                                        NYY 36 115 0.31
                                                        TAM 35 104 0.34
                                                        LAA 37 105 0.35
                                                        COL 36 96 0.38
                                                        865 3424 0.25

                                                        DAY 6
                                                        PLAYS for 6/15:

                                                        LA ANGELS/SF OVER 8.5 EV

                                                        LA ANGELS (10%) -122


                                                        YTD (5 DAYS)
                                                        UNDERS 16-4-1 80% +11.80
                                                        OVERS where line is 9 or less 8-2 80% +5.80
                                                        OVERS where line is 9.5 or higher 2-8-1 20% -6.55
                                                        All OVERS 10-10-1 50% -0.75
                                                        9% and Up Plays 13-2 87% +11.94
                                                        6% and Up Plays 14-4 78% +9.47
                                                        Overall 40-18-2 69% +20.52
                                                        Comment
                                                        • therber2
                                                          Restricted User
                                                          • 12-22-08
                                                          • 3715

                                                          #29
                                                          Again, JS, good stuff!
                                                          Comment
                                                          • Killer Chihuahua
                                                            SBR Sharp
                                                            • 12-16-08
                                                            • 324

                                                            #30
                                                            nice stuff......keep up the fine work
                                                            Comment
                                                            • JerseyShop101
                                                              Restricted User
                                                              • 09-04-08
                                                              • 2704

                                                              #31
                                                              Thanks Killer.

                                                              DAY 6 RESULTS
                                                              PLAYS for 6/15:

                                                              LA ANGELS/SF OVER 8.5 EV WINNER

                                                              LA ANGELS 10% -122 WINNER

                                                              YTD (6 DAYS)
                                                              UNDERS 16-4-1 80% +11.80
                                                              OVERS where line is 9 or less 9-2 82% +6.80
                                                              OVERS where line is 9.5 or higher 2-8-1 20% -6.55
                                                              All OVERS 11-10-1 52% +.25
                                                              9% and Up Plays 14-2 88% +12.94
                                                              6% and Up Plays 15-4 79% +10.47
                                                              Overall 42-18-2 70% +22.52

                                                              Comment
                                                              • JerseyShop101
                                                                Restricted User
                                                                • 09-04-08
                                                                • 2704

                                                                #32
                                                                Updated Stats 1-15 June:
                                                                #Scored Inn Tot Innings %
                                                                SDG 20 115 0.17
                                                                WAS 21 110 0.19
                                                                CIN 25 127 0.20
                                                                KAN 22 106 0.21
                                                                OAK 26 125 0.21
                                                                LOS 23 110 0.21
                                                                BAL 22 105 0.21

                                                                TEX 23 106 0.22
                                                                CUB 25 115 0.22
                                                                ATL 26 118 0.22
                                                                DET 29 127 0.23
                                                                CWS 31 135 0.23
                                                                PIT 29 121 0.24
                                                                SEA 26 108 0.24
                                                                MIN 27 108 0.25
                                                                STL 32 126 0.25
                                                                ARI 30 115 0.26
                                                                NYM 29 110 0.26
                                                                SFO 33 123 0.27
                                                                TOR 29 108 0.27
                                                                HOU 34 123 0.28
                                                                MIL 35 125 0.28
                                                                FLA 35 123 0.28

                                                                CLE 34 116 0.29
                                                                BOS 33 109 0.30
                                                                PHI 36 117 0.31
                                                                NYY 36 115 0.31
                                                                TAM 35 104 0.34
                                                                LAA 40 114 0.35
                                                                COL 36 96 0.38
                                                                882 3460 0.25

                                                                DAY 7
                                                                6/16 PLAYS

                                                                SD/SEA UNDER 7 -120
                                                                CIN/ATL UNDER 8 -105
                                                                KC/ARI UNDER 8.5 -110
                                                                OAK/LOS UNDER 7.5 -125
                                                                BAL/NYM UNDER 9.5 -105

                                                                LA ANGELS/SF line not out Yet - Take UNDER if line is 9.5 or more (Over FADE PLAY), if not take Over

                                                                CLE/MIL OVER 9 EV
                                                                TOR/PHILLY OVER 9 EV

                                                                BOS/FLA UNDER 9.5 -105 (This is an Over FADE PLAY)
                                                                TB/COL UNDER 10 EV (This is an Over FADE PLAY)

                                                                NYY (12%) -350 (This must be the biggest line of the year)
                                                                LA ANGELS (8%) LINE NOT OUT YET
                                                                SEA (7%) -148
                                                                HOU (6%) +127

                                                                Going to still take those low Unders.
                                                                This is the 1st 2 or 3 Over FADE Plays (hopefully that record of 2-9-1 continues)
                                                                I will give the 6% and ups (1-2) a shot today to get in the plus.
                                                                Last edited by JerseyShop101; 06-16-09, 04:09 AM.
                                                                Comment
                                                                • Vreston
                                                                  SBR MVP
                                                                  • 03-12-09
                                                                  • 1428

                                                                  #33
                                                                  Excellent job! Keep up the great work!

                                                                  I think you're right not to go too far back because if a team is hot or in a slump it's pretty much a thing of the present or recent past. But hey, it's your system and you're doing great so you know what's best.

                                                                  BOL!


                                                                  Comment
                                                                  • Panekkkk
                                                                    SBR MVP
                                                                    • 03-12-09
                                                                    • 2430

                                                                    #34
                                                                    Originally posted by JerseyShop101
                                                                    Updated Stats 1-15 June:
                                                                    #Scored Inn Tot Innings %
                                                                    SDG 20 115 0.17
                                                                    WAS 21 110 0.19
                                                                    CIN 25 127 0.20
                                                                    KAN 22 106 0.21
                                                                    OAK 26 125 0.21
                                                                    LOS 23 110 0.21
                                                                    BAL 22 105 0.21

                                                                    TEX 23 106 0.22
                                                                    CUB 25 115 0.22
                                                                    ATL 26 118 0.22
                                                                    DET 29 127 0.23
                                                                    CWS 31 135 0.23
                                                                    PIT 29 121 0.24
                                                                    SEA 26 108 0.24
                                                                    MIN 27 108 0.25
                                                                    STL 32 126 0.25
                                                                    ARI 30 115 0.26
                                                                    NYM 29 110 0.26
                                                                    SFO 33 123 0.27
                                                                    TOR 29 108 0.27
                                                                    HOU 34 123 0.28
                                                                    MIL 35 125 0.28
                                                                    FLA 35 123 0.28

                                                                    CLE 34 116 0.29
                                                                    BOS 33 109 0.30
                                                                    PHI 36 117 0.31
                                                                    NYY 36 115 0.31
                                                                    TAM 35 104 0.34
                                                                    LAA 40 114 0.35
                                                                    COL 36 96 0.38
                                                                    882 3460 0.25

                                                                    DAY 7
                                                                    6/16 PLAYS

                                                                    SD/SEA UNDER 7 -120
                                                                    CIN/ATL UNDER 8 -105
                                                                    KC/ARI UNDER 8.5 -110
                                                                    OAK/LOS UNDER 7.5 -125
                                                                    BAL/NYM UNDER 9.5 -105

                                                                    LA ANGELS/SF line not out Yet - Take UNDER if line is 9.5 or more (Over FADE PLAY), if not take Over

                                                                    CLE/MIL OVER 9 EV
                                                                    TOR/PHILLY OVER 9 EV

                                                                    BOS/FLA UNDER 9.5 -105 (This is an Over FADE PLAY)
                                                                    TB/COL UNDER 10 EV (This is an Over FADE PLAY)

                                                                    NYY (12%) -350 (This must be the biggest line of the year)
                                                                    LA ANGELS (8%) LINE NOT OUT YET
                                                                    SEA (7%) -148
                                                                    HOU (6%) +127

                                                                    Going to still take those low Unders.
                                                                    This is the 1st 2 or 3 Over FADE Plays (hopefully that record of 2-9-1 continues)
                                                                    I will give the 6% and ups (1-2) a shot today to get in the plus.
                                                                    Some more suggestions for filters (not trying to make things too complicated):

                                                                    You may consider breaking these number down by home/away although the system seems performing pretty well up to this point so that may be overkill
                                                                    Comment
                                                                    • JerseyShop101
                                                                      Restricted User
                                                                      • 09-04-08
                                                                      • 2704

                                                                      #35
                                                                      DAY 7
                                                                      6/16 PLAYS

                                                                      SD/SEA UNDER 7 -120
                                                                      CIN/ATL UNDER 8 -105
                                                                      KC/ARI UNDER 8.5 -110
                                                                      OAK/LOS UNDER 7.5 -125
                                                                      BAL/NYM UNDER 9.5 -105
                                                                      BOS/FLA UNDER 9.5 -105 (This is an Over FADE PLAY)
                                                                      TB/COL UNDER 10 EV (This is an Over FADE PLAY)

                                                                      CLE/MIL OVER 9 EV
                                                                      LA ANGELS/SF OVER 9 -115
                                                                      TOR/PHILLY OVER 9 EV

                                                                      NYY (12%) -350
                                                                      LA ANGELS (8%) +112
                                                                      SEA (7%) -148
                                                                      HOU (6%) +127

                                                                      Ok, we have 7 UNDERS, 3 OVERS, 4 SIDES.

                                                                      Lets make some MONEY!!!

                                                                      I'm confident! Worst case scenario I go 10-4 here. And you can now find Bos/FLA Under 10 and TB/COL Under 10.5!
                                                                      Comment
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