Tracking "Number of Innings in which a Run is Scored In" SYSTEM

[JerseyShop101]

for all you effort things will work for you JS in time but look at last night that Flo hit prop one if you had to avg today TT who would you get for the BEST OVER

Thanks.

I haven't played the hits prop.

I'd choose Florida again, as they faced a better pitcher yesterday and had 6 runs on 11 hits. I expect them to exceed that today. I have the game capped at Florida 7-4.

[EXhoosier10]

JS, have you back-tested this system at all? Not sure if I want to follow yet after losing the last couple of days.

[JerseyShop101]

JS, have you back-tested this system at all? Not sure if I want to follow yet after losing the last couple of days.

The last couple days of losses, 3-5 and 5-6 were Specific Team Totals. I've dropped that and going with the Game Totals now. I have only looked at the recent stats I have on file. I haven't looked at any prior years either, just strictly testing this out, with a minimum of 1 run difference in the line to my stats prediction. Will see how it goes.

ATL/NYM Over 8 was a fast winner in only 2.5 innings of play!

FLA/HOU Over 9.5 already have 5 runs in the 1st!

[JerseyShop101]

A 4-4-1 losing day yesterday. Gotta break out of this bad streak.

Going with Current streaks: (The * is the difference between the 2 teams playing, the higher the difference the better)

BOS 2 3* BOS -160
COL 2
ATL 1 6* ATL +112
CUB 1
CWS 1
PHI 1 5* PHI -177
HOU 0
TAM 0
WAS 0
CLE -1
FLA -1
KAN -1
LAA -1
LOS -1
MIN -1
NYY -1
PIT -1
SDG -1
SFO -1
TEX -1
TOR -1
BAL -2
CIN -2
DET -2
MIL -2
SEA -2
OAK -3
STL -3
ARI -4
NYM-5

[JerseyShop101]

I forgot to list these earlier (for tracking purposes only). Plays are 3*'s and above.

6*ATL +1125*PHI -1773*BOS -1602*COL -1302*TB 1-2712*SD +1422*CUBS +1331*SF -132 L1*HOU +122

[JerseyShop101]

I forgot to list these earlier (for tracking purposes only). Plays are 3*'s and above.

6* ATL +112
5* PHI -177
3* BOS -160

2* COL -130
2* TB -271
2* SD +142
2* CUBS +133

1* SF -132 Lost
1* HOU +122

[AceofSP2107]

have to love them philles JS all they do is take care of things

[JerseyShop101]

have to love them philles JS all they do is take care of things

Hell yeah. Phils might have more scoring than the Eagles, ARGGG.

[JerseyShop101]

Thursday Results:
3-0 +3.12


Friday's Chart and Plays:

BOS 3
PHI 2 8* PHI -167
CLE 1
CWS 1
LOS 1
NYY 1
SEA 1
TEX 1
BAL 0
DET 0 3* DET -144
TAM 0
ATL -1
COL -1
CUB -1
HOU -1 4* HOU-191
KAN -1
PIT -1
WAS -1
FLA -2
LAA -2
MIL -2
MIN -2
SDG -2
SFO -2
TOR -2
CIN -3
OAK -3
STL -4
ARI -5
NYM -6

[JerseyShop101]

Friday Results:
2-1 +0.33

Saturday's Chart and Plays:

BOS 4 3* BOS +141
CLE 2
SEA 2
MIL 1 3* MIL +122
NYY 1
COL 0 3* COL -180
DET 0 4* DET -111
KAN 0
MIN 0
PIT 0 5* PITT -130
TAM 0
BAL -1
CWS -1
LOS -1
PH I-1 6* PHI -234
TEX -1
ATL -2
CUB -2
HOU -2 5* HOU +111
WAS -2
FLA-3
LAA -3
SDG -3
SFO -3
TOR -3
OAK -4
CIN -5
STL -5
ARI -7
NYM-7

[threeg5]

Friday Results:
2-1 +0.33

Saturday's Chart and Plays:

BOS 4 3* BOS +141
CLE 2
SEA 2
MIL 1 3* MIL +122
NYY 1
COL 0 3* COL -180
DET 0 4* DET -111
KAN 0
MIN 0
PIT 0 5* PITT -130
TAM 0
BAL -1
CWS -1
LOS -1
PH I-1 6* PHI -234
TEX -1
ATL -2
CUB -2
HOU -2 5* HOU +111
WAS -2
FLA-3
LAA -3
SDG -3
SFO -3
TOR -3
OAK -4
CIN -5
STL -5
ARI -7
NYM-7

I know you are going with totals now. so are these over or unders?

[EXhoosier10]

I know you are going with totals now. so are these over or unders?

These are sides, not totals. Check up a few posts to read his description

[threeg5]

i gotta be blind

These are sides, not totals. Check up a few posts to read his description

I dont see it so what is the side bets that we are looking at?
sorry I looked and the last real concrete change i see is to totals

[EXhoosier10]

I dont see it so what is the side bets that we are looking at?
sorry I looked and the last real concrete change i see is to totals

I think he gave up on the totals (team or game) and went with sides, judging by the lines he gives. Not sure what kind of other bets he could be making with those sort of lines.

[JerseyShop101]

I know you are going with totals now. so are these over or unders?

Sorry for the confusion, been looking at a few ideas and the last couple we just stagnant or losing right away. With only couple months left just trying to see if something starts off good and will ride it til it goes bad.

Taking SIDES on teams with a rating difference of 3 or more.

Rating is simple: This is streaks only- teams get 1 pt for each 4 or more innings scored in. If they scored in 4 or more innings in last 2 games they get 2 pts, 3 games 3 pts, etc. If they scored in 3 innings its a 0, regardless how many 3's in a row. If they scored in 2 or less innings they get a -1, so if they scored in 2 or less innings 2 games in a row its a -2, 3 games -3, etc.

I'm playing 1 unit regardless of the rating difference.

DAY 1: 3-0 +3.12
DAY 2: 2-1 +0.33

DAY 3:

3* BOS +1413* MIL +1223* COL -1804* DET -1115* PITT -1306* PHI -2345* HOU +111

Boston is up 12-0 in top of 7th, we're starting our Saturday off right!!!

[JerseyShop101]

Saturday's Plays:


3* BOS +141
3* MIL +122
3* COL -180
4* DET -111
5* PITT -130
6* PHI -234

[JerseyShop101]

5* hou +111

[EXhoosier10]

wonderful day JS. Hopefully this one is the system that works. Keep itup and thank you

[JerseyShop101]

Thanks Exhoosier10!

Saturday's System Plays:
6-1 +5.63


DAY 1: 3-0 +3.12
DAY 2: 2-1 +0.33
DAY 3: 6-1 +5.63
Total: 11-2 +9.08

[JerseyShop101]

Sunday's PLAYS:

BOS 5 6* BOS -116
CLE 3 4* CLE +129
MIL 2
COL 1
KAN 1
MIN 1
PIT 1 7* PIT -139
SFO 1
TAM 1
WAS 1
CWS 0
LAA 0 4* LAA +118
STL 0 4* STL -170
TEX 0
DET -1 4* DET -133
NYY -1
SEA -1
BAL -2
LOS -2
PHI -2 6* PHI -171
ATL -3
CUB -3
HOU -3 5* HOU -140
FLA -4
SDG -4
TOR -4
OAK -5
CIN -6
ARI -8
NYM-8

6* BOS -1164* CLE +1294* DET -1335* HOU -1404* LAA +1186* PHI -1717* PIT -1394* STL -170

[JerseyShop101]

Sunday's System Plays:
3-4 +-3.29


DAY 1: 3-0 +3.12
DAY 2: 2-1 +0.33
DAY 3: 6-1 +5.63
DAY 4: 3-4 -3.29
Total: 14-6 (70%) +5.79


Monday's Chart - NO QUALIFYING PLAYS

ARI 0
ATL 1
BAL 0
BOS 0
CIN 1
CLE 0
COL 0
CUB -4
CWS 0
DET 0
FLA -5
HOU 0
KAN 0
LAA -1
LOS -3
MIL 0
MIN 0
NYM 1
NYY 1
OAK 0
PHI 0
PIT -1
SDG -5
SEA -2
SFO -1
STL -1
TAM -1
TEX 0
TOR 1
WAS 2

[JerseyShop101]

Copy pasted the wrong results for Day 4:

3-5 -2.99

DAY 1: 3-0 +3.12
DAY 2: 2-1 +0.33
DAY 3: 6-1 +5.63
DAY 4: 3-5 -2.99
Total: 14-7 (67%) +6.09

[JerseyShop101]

Tuesday's Chart and 3 Plays:


ATL16* ATL -250BOS1CIN1CLE1CWS1NYY1TAM1ARI0DET0HOU0KAN0PHI0TEX0TOR0BAL-1COL-1MIL-1MIN-1NYM-14* NYM +189OAK-1PIT-1STL-1WAS-13* WAS +235LAA-2SFO-2LOS-3SEA-3CUB-4FLA-5SDG-5

[JerseyShop101]

Tuesday's Chart and 3 Plays:

ATL 1 6* ATL -250
BOS 1
CIN 1
CLE 1
CWS 1
NYY 1
TAM 1
ARI 0
DET 0
HOU 0
KAN 0
PHI 0
TEX 0
TOR 0
BAL -1
COL -1
MIL -1
MIN -1
NYM -1 4* NYM +189
OAK -1
PIT -1
STL -1
WAS -1 3* WAS +235
LAA -2
SFO -2
LOS -3
SEA -3
CUB -4
FLA -5
SDG -5

[AceofSP2107]

Atl -1.5??

[JerseyShop101]

Atl -1.5??

I have some of that also at -1.5 -120., did (2) 2-team parlays with ATL ML and each dog. But for "true" system stats, I'll grade it at ML.

Good luck today!

[JerseyShop101]

Hope we get back on track today.

DAY 1: 3-0 +3.12
DAY 2: 2-1 +0.33
DAY 3: 6-1 +5.63
DAY 4: 3-5 -2.99
DAY 5: 1-2 -1.15
Total: 15-9 (63%) +4.94

Wednesday's Chart and 5 Plays:

BOS 2 *3 BOS -145
CIN 2 *4 CIN +171
BAL 1
COL 1
CUB 1
KAN 1
MIN 1
TEX 1
WAS 1
DET 0 *3 DET +112
HOU 0
LOS 0
NYY 0
PHI 0
PIT 0
SEA 0
SFO 0
TAM 0
TOR 0
ARI -1
ATL -1*5 ATL +190
CLE -1
CWS -1
MIL -2
NYM -2 *4 NYM +215
OAK -2
STL -2
LAA -3
FLA -6
SDG-6

[JerseyShop101]

Correction : ATL line is -215

[JerseyShop101]

2-3 -1.44 yesterday
17-12 (59%) +3.50

3 System Plays for Thursday:

CIN +151FLA -218LAA -182

[JerseyShop101]

cin +151
fla -218
laa -182

[Cartographer]

Jerseyshop, I'm new to this system, but really liking what I'm seeing so far. According to my numbers, you're doing about a 66% win percentage (8 wins out of 12 picks) if you don't play teams with a ranking less than 1, no matter how large the difference between the two teams. Not knowing what you're wagering, however, I can't be sure if it would net you more units.

Best of luck today.

[JerseyShop101]

Jerseyshop, I'm new to this system, but really liking what I'm seeing so far. According to my numbers, you're doing about a 66% win percentage (8 wins out of 12 picks) if you don't play teams with a ranking less than 1, no matter how large the difference between the two teams. Not knowing what you're wagering, however, I can't be sure if it would net you more units.

Best of luck today.

I was looking at that too. Cincy was a win today at +3. FLA big chalk loser was at 0.

I was figuring outy the last 7 innings scored for teams late last night, wished I jumped on STL/HOU Under 7.5.
STL had scored in 11 innings in their last 7 games: 1.57 average
HOU had scored in 12 innings in their last 7 games: 1.71 average

Added together is 3.28, times 1.66 (high averge runs per inning) = 5.44
With the line at 7.5, was a definite Under play.

I didn't play it though.

Using this formula, tonights plays would also be:

Oak/LAA Under 9.5 -105 (6.88 runs)
ARI/SF Under 8.5 -110 (6.40 runs)

Thanks.




now, check this out:

[JerseyShop101]

Checking out another system:

Last 9 Games Innings Scored, Average is then multiplied by 1.67 to get projected runs. Total is a PLAY only if there is a difference of 1 run or more between the Projected Total and the Line.

Yesterdays results: 5-2 +2.80

LAA 3.58 OAK 3.34 6.92 Und 9.5 2.58 2 Won
NYM 3.34 FLA 3.10 6.44 Und 9 2.56 13 Lost
COL 4.53 LOS 3.34 7.87 Und 10 2.13 3 Won
SFO 3.82 ARI 2.62 6.44 Und 8.5 2.06 11 Lost
HOU 2.86 STL 2.62 5.48 Und 7.5 2.02 7 Won
BOS 6.68 CWS 4.53 11.21 ov 9.5 1.7 1 14 Won
KAN 5.01 SEA 4.77 9.78 ov 8.5 1.28 12 Won

Fridays Plays:

LAA 2.97 OAK 3.34 6.31 Under 10.5 -120 4.19
ARI 3.15 HOU 2.97 6.12 Under 9 -115 2.88
FLA 3.53 SDG 3.15 6.68 Under 9 -105 2.32
KAN 5.38 SEA 4.27 9.65 Over 7.5 -105 2.15
BOS 6.49 TOR 4.27 10.8 Over 9 -105 1.76
STL 2.78 WAS 4.82 7.6 Under 9 -120 1.40
COL 4.45 SFO 3.15 7.6 Over 6.5 -105 1.10

[JerseyShop101]

Overs 4-1 +2.90
Unders(9.5&up) 2-1 +0.80
Total: 6-2 +3.70

Saturday's Plays:

KAN 5.20 SEA 4.82 10.02 Over 8.5 -110 1.52
BAL 5.01 CLE 6.12 11.13 Over 10 EV 1.13
ATL 4.45 PHI 4.64 9.09 Over 8 -110 1.09　
　　　　　　
LAA 3.53 OAK 3.53 7.06 Under 9.5 -115 2.44
ARI 3.90 HOU 3.53 7.43 Under 9.5 -120 2.07
DET 3.90 TAM 4.45 8.35 Under 9.5 -110 1.15
MIN 3.90 TEX 4.45 8.35 Under 9.5 -110 1.15

[JerseyShop101]

Adding:

CWS 4.27 NYY 5.38 9.65 Under 11 -110 1.35