New Baseball Power Rating System

[Cannaloop]

As Mantorras indicated, you are on the main page of the software. Click on 9 which takes you to the update screen. Now click on 7 which is the pythag Theorm. It says look for a team that has a + .500 record Vs a - .500 team which is 65% or greater. Thats it and use 30 days which is the default value and dont play a Fav over -175.

Gotcha, so + .500 vs. - .500 team translates into 65% meaning I should primarely look at the %? Or are these independent and are two different criterias to fulfil?

[peterpan19]

PR went 1-4 -2.95
run went 0-1 -1

YTD (May 15th):
PR: 24-35 -5.85
run: 6-5 +2.7

no plays today

[sailorman2439]

Hey, does anyone know a website that will give historical betting odds so that I can backtest some of the systems?

[caracalla]

covers.com

[mantorras77]

So is it really as simple as pressing "1" and betting for the "Best Bet's"? There was one BB today but 2 other picks, what should I do with those?

Oh and as a European I normally use decimals, when you say "higher than -175" do you mean higher as in a higher number (i.e. -180) or higher as in greater than (i.e. -140)? I'm guessing the first since you are after underdogs?

Mantorras spoke about comparing the picks with the theorem (press 9 then 7). Could someone clarify whats to compare?

Sorry about all the questions, its just that english isn't my mother tongue(I think thats the word for it) and some of you use really, to me, strange grammar so I'm not fully understanding.

I think for you it would be nothing lower than 1.57 (ie, 1.40 etc)

[mantorras77]

It's too bad we're not allowed to discuss the games first on here because I would have loved to get everyone's opinions on why we should have backed Minnesota other than it being a system pick.....Beckett was coming into the game on a good streak and Minny's pitcher was only making his 2nd career start. I don't understand how all the systems really liked Minnesota.

5/28 UPDATE: LOSER on the Twins (+122)

________________________________________ ___________________________________

Sportrends Software: 5/15 - 5/28

Best Bets (30 System) 16-8 67% +6.31 UNITS (based on 1 unit bet per play)
Best Bets (99 System) 22-8 73% +12.56 UNITS (based on 1 unit bet per play)
PT Bets (30 System) 21-9 70% +10.87 UNITS (based on 1 unit bet per play)
PT Bets (99 System) ***Coming Soon***

GRAND TOTAL of all systems combined are 27-10 73% +15.48 UNITS !!!!

also, take my theory of going against all the teams the system picks that are higher than -175 and you can add to that grand total an additional 2.16 UNITS!!

[Nick6570]

Yeah i know mantorras, is there any way we could make a password only forum?? I doubt it but just an idea
and i was thinking the same thing as you, but would have been a good pay day if they would have pulled through.
If you think about it though the system was right on because the 2 go ahead runs were givin up in the 7th right before becket was taken out. It was just a matter of Hitting. Oh well maybe next time

[caracalla]

Everyody.... BE CAREFUL

You can't make a backtest with today stats data.
If you test 01/05 results, you must have 01/05 stats (ERA?) data
Example
Today I know Cubs are 67% winnings
Today I know Cubs lost 73% away matches
So I can suppose that I have to bet on Cubs at home, and I want make a backtest
Sure I'll have a 85%-90% winner bets
So I'm sure that, from now on, I'll become rich betting on Cubs at home
FALSE FALSE FALSE

[Formulawiz]

Everyody.... BE CAREFUL

You can't make a backtest with today stats data.
If you test 01/05 results, you must have 01/05 stats (ERA?) data
Example
Today I know Cubs are 67% winnings
Today I know Cubs lost 73% away matches
So I can suppose that I have to bet on Cubs at home, and I want make a backtest
Sure I'll have a 85%-90% winner bets
So I'm sure that, from now on, I'll become rich betting on Cubs at home
FALSE FALSE FALSE

Thats incorrect, you can absolutely backtest any game you want. You get the same results whether its the BB or PT system.

[Formulawiz]

It's too bad we're not allowed to discuss the games first on here because I would have loved to get everyone's opinions on why we should have backed Minnesota other than it being a system pick.....Beckett was coming into the game on a good streak and Minny's pitcher was only making his 2nd career start. I don't understand how all the systems really liked Minnesota.

5/28 UPDATE: LOSER on the Twins (+122)

________________________________________ ___________________________________

Sportrends Software: 5/15 - 5/28

Best Bets (30 System) 16-8 67% +6.31 UNITS (based on 1 unit bet per play)
Best Bets (99 System) 22-8 73% +12.56 UNITS (based on 1 unit bet per play)
PT Bets (30 System) 21-9 70% +10.87 UNITS (based on 1 unit bet per play)
PT Bets (99 System) ***Coming Soon***

GRAND TOTAL of all systems combined are 27-10 73% +15.48 UNITS !!!!

also, take my theory of going against all the teams the system picks that are higher than -175 and you can add to that grand total an additional 2.16 UNITS!!

Mantorras to clarify the PT system for everyone using the software are you using opt 7 under the update menu and only playing + .500 teams facing - .500 teams or option 1 under main menu, where the BB are.

[caracalla]

Thats incorrect, you can absolutely backtest any game you want. You get the same results whether its the BB or PT system.

I don't agree. Otherwise why you must download daily new stats from sportrends website?

[mantorras77]

Mantorras to clarify the PT system for everyone using the software are you using opt 7 under the update menu and only playing + .500 teams facing - .500 teams or option 1 under main menu, where the BB are.

go back and re-read posts #223 and #230

[mantorras77]

I don't agree. Otherwise why you must download daily new stats from sportrends website?

because the software doesn't automatically update the data itself!

[mantorras77]

Everyody.... BE CAREFUL

You can't make a backtest with today stats data.
If you test 01/05 results, you must have 01/05 stats (ERA?) data
Example
Today I know Cubs are 67% winnings
Today I know Cubs lost 73% away matches
So I can suppose that I have to bet on Cubs at home, and I want make a backtest
Sure I'll have a 85%-90% winner bets
So I'm sure that, from now on, I'll become rich betting on Cubs at home
FALSE FALSE FALSE

You are definitely incorrect buddy.....first off i'm not sure we're you're getting "Sure I'll have a 85%-90% winner bets" because I haven't seen results like that using this software....if you have tell us how.

I just tested your theory by comparing the Option "1" software picks because they list the pitchers ERA on it and teams stats and if I compared them to stats on ESPN going backwards everything matches up the same.

Using your example, today the Cubs have a .714 winning pct at home, if I back test and look at their home record on 5/14 the software has it at .626 wich is exactly what it was on 5/14 in real life so your theory is sooo false. What you're saying is that if we go back and look at the software on 5/14 then it should say that they're .714 when that's false!

Actually I don't understand how you can miss that on the software when everything is right there in front you.

[Formulawiz]

I don't agree. Otherwise why you must download daily new stats from sportrends website?

You cant make a statement like that because you have no idea how sportrends saves their data. Obviously they save it so back testing is permitted. I also know their college and pro football and basketball can be backtested as well. So before you make a statement know the facts.

[mantorras77]

5/29 PICKS
Best Bets (30 System) : 2 picks
Best Bets (99 System) : 2 picks
PT Bets (30 System) : 2 picks
TOTAL : 2 picks today and I like them both!

Side note: I know I have yet to back test it but the PT Bets (99 System) has 3 picks today, the same 2 as the other systems plus one additional.

[CashMoney]

5/29 PICKS
Best Bets (30 System) : 2 picks
Best Bets (99 System) : 2 picks
PT Bets (30 System) : 2 picks
TOTAL : 2 picks today and I like them both!

Side note: I know I have yet to back test it but the PT Bets (99 System) has 3 picks today, the same 2 as the other systems plus one additional.

I cam e up with a total of 7 PT plays for today. However I eliminated one as the line was above -175 and 2 others which are also are Best Bets.

I have 2 Best Bets and 4 PT plays for today.

[caracalla]

You are definitely incorrect buddy.....first off i'm not sure we're you're getting "Sure I'll have a 85%-90% winner bets" because I haven't seen results like that using this software....if you have tell us how.

I just tested your theory by comparing the Option "1" software picks because they list the pitchers ERA on it and teams stats and if I compared them to stats on ESPN going backwards everything matches up the same.

Using your example, today the Cubs have a .714 winning pct at home, if I back test and look at their home record on 5/14 the software has it at .626 wich is exactly what it was on 5/14 in real life so your theory is sooo false. What you're saying is that if we go back and look at the software on 5/14 then it should say that they're .714 when that's false!

Actually I don't understand how you can miss that on the software when everything is right there in front you.

It was an example!! Number random, not real!!!

[caracalla]

You cant make a statement like that because you have no idea how sportrends saves their data. Obviously they save it so back testing is permitted. I also know their college and pro football and basketball can be backtested as well. So before you make a statement know the facts.

I'm not discussing Sportrends programs: if they work well, better for all us (I'm using NBA).
I'm discussing about making backtest using statistical data: they can't be uodated!!!

I don't know programs, but I know stat!!!

[caracalla]

I read better previous posts:
"... I back test and look at their home record on 5/14 the software has it at .626 wich is exactly what it was on 5/1 ...."

OK, then all is OK.... I was wrong and the program is very good!!!
Sorry for the misunderstanding

[Formulawiz]

I'm not discussing Sportrends programs: if they work well, better for all us (I'm using NBA).
I'm discussing about making backtest using statistical data: they can't be uodated!!!

I don't know programs, but I know stat!!!

Caracalla, You have no idea as to what your talking about. First of all this is not the NBA second of all I use sportrends college and pro football and Basketball software and I am telling you backtesting is part of the software. Its in the way the software is designed. Its not a spreadsheet theres lots of programming going on internally permitting the user to backtest. Take it or leave it.

[mantorras77]

It was an example!! Number random, not real!!!

well guess what buddy, mine was REAL!!!!! If you're not using the program then what the hell are you doing in here posting about what it can and can't do?????

[mantorras77]

I cam e up with a total of 7 PT plays for today. However I eliminated one as the line was above -175 and 2 others which are also are Best Bets.

I have 2 Best Bets and 4 PT plays for today.

You're right there are 7 PT plays under under option "7" PT SYSTEM but then you have to compare them to the option "1" PICK WINNERS on the first screen.

[mantorras77]

If you're playing the selections from "Pythagorem Theorem System" opt 7 under the update screen then you would definitely have a ton more selections then the 21-9 record i'm counting for the PT System. I have yet to back test it.

[Formulawiz]

Confusion with sportrends PT System

If you're playing the selections from "Pythagorem Theorem System" opt 7 under the update screen then you would definitely have a ton more selections then the 21-9 record i'm counting for the PT System. I have yet to back test it.

There is quite a bit of confusion surrounding which PT system is being used and the win/loss records and units associated with it. Mantorras is obviously using the PT system found on the main page under option 1 which is different then what I am doing.
I am using the PT system found under the update menu which is option 7 and this is producing significantly more plays then the other system does. Let me explain how I use the PT system along with the W/L records and units from 5/15 to 5/28.
1. I use 30 days back and 65% and > as criteria
2. Play a + .500 team Vs - .500 team only when above 65%
3. If both teams are +500 or above or both teams are .500 or below pass the game.
4. Favorites over -175 are always dropped.
5. Plays are made 15 minutes to 1/2 hour prior to start of game, this is very important since I like to see what the public is doing.

Using Covers money line, here is the following Win/ Loss records and units won from 5/15 thru 5/28. I have them on a monthly bases and I have the teams to back it up.
Win/Loss record is 54-26, 67.5% -- Units + 26.68 and that includes an 0-3 day yesterday.
Thats the story and by the way I believe the 30 days is slightly better then the 99 days.

[Milwaukee]

We had 8 PT-games today. Is this right?

There is quite a bit of confusion surrounding which PT system is being used and the win/loss records and units associated with it. Mantorras is obviously using the PT system found on the main page under option 1 which is different then what I am doing.
I am using the PT system found under the update menu which is option 7 and this is producing significantly more games then the other system does. Let me explain how I use the PT system along with the W/L records and units from 5/15 to 5/28.
1. I use 30 days back and 65% and > as criteria
2. Play a + .500 team Vs - .500 team only when above 65%
3. If both teams are +500 or above or both teams are .500 or below pass the game.
4. Favorites over -175 are always dropped.
5. Plays are made 15 minutes to 1/2 hour prior to start of game, this is very important since I like to see what the public is doing.

Using Covers money line, here is the following Win/ Loss records and units won from 5/15 thru 5/28. I have them on a monthly bases and I have the teams to back it up.
Win/Loss record is 54-26, 67.5% -- Units + 26.68 and that includes an 0-3 day yesterday.
Thats the story and by the way I believe the 30 days is slightly better then the 99 days.

[Formulawiz]

We had 8 PT-games today. Is this right?

I have 7 games and 2 games are over -175

[CashMoney]

I have 7 games and 2 games are over -175

I have 6 games in total, dropped the one that was above -175 and am assuming they public shot the odds up on the other as I took them at exactly -175.

Playing the system amlost identical to you. Hopefully the winning continues....got crushed yesterday with an 0-3 but we can't win everyday

[caracalla]

Caracalla, You have no idea as to what your talking about. First of all this is not the NBA second of all I use sportrends college and pro football and Basketball software and I am telling you backtesting is part of the software. Its in the way the software is designed. Its not a spreadsheet theres lots of programming going on internally permitting the user to backtest. Take it or leave it.

As I have already posted.... I admit my mistake.... SORRY

read better previous posts:
"... I back test and look at their home record on 5/14 the software has it at .626 wich is exactly what it was on 5/1 ...."

OK, then all is OK.... I was wrong and the program is very good!!!
Sorry for the misunderstanding

[Formulawiz]

By the way I noticed the 2 losing days I had with the PT system I use was during Interleague play. We will have to monitor this next time.

[peterpan19]

ok a bit late today but here are the PR plays for today:
NYY, HOU, MIN, CWS, MIL and ARZ

run play today: CIN...but only if it ends up being a dog today...

[rogerc]

Just got this program today and loving it so far.
Does anyone want to share their spreadsheet from the beginning to the year or from 5/15 so that I can keep my stats.
I will be willingly to help out keep stats etc.
Just pm me if you want to email me a working spreadsheet.
Thanks
Roger

[Nick6570]

so would it be safe to say that the PT is pretty damn good, I mean it only has 2 losses tonight.
I am thinking about switching from BB to PT, is anyone else thinking about doing this too??

[Formulawiz]

so would it be safe to say that the PT is pretty damn good, I mean it only has 2 losses tonight.
I am thinking about switching from BB to PT, is anyone else thinking about doing this too??

I am not sure how you got 2 losers last night using the PT system as I explained it just yesterday. My record last night was 5-1 and + 3.9 units. There were 8 plays and 2 games dropped out.

Since 5/15 - W/L 59-27 =68.6% and 30.58 Units.

[mantorras77]

I am not sure how you got 2 losers last night using the PT system as I explained it just yesterday. My record last night was 5-1 and + 3.9 units. There were 8 plays and 2 games dropped out.

Since 5/15 - W/L 59-27 =68.6% and 30.58 Units.

Yea, I think i'll switch over to WIZ's way of doing it since it's been really really good!!!