New Baseball Power Rating System

[Formulawiz]

formulawiz
not even 5 min after the game started...just to see how it does ?...how much did you pay for the software ?

Pete you cant play a team like CHW when you have a terrible pitcher going against a top pitcher. The only way to play a big dog is when you have a half decent pitcher going. I would not count CHW as a play at -250, does not make any sense.

Secondly, I dont want to get involved in posting plays from sportrends software. Its cheap enough at $50.00 and I have had pretty good results for years using it. Ill give you one play and its TOR. I would not take them at -250 either.

[Formulawiz]

Since starting on May 15th as I always do using sportrends software I am now 6-1. The software is 7-1 but as I said I did not play TOR today. The other 2 plays today were PIT and TB.
I have never hit below 62% over the past 10 years that I have been using the software

One of the other systems the software uses is pythagorean theorm when the overlay has a 65% chance of winning. I never used it in the past but since looking at it since May 15th these are the results
may 15th 7-5
may 16th 6-3
may 17th 8-1
Thats 21-9 not bad. Going to keep a close eye on this.

[peterpan19]

formulawiz
...we just have to count CSW as a play, bc the PR said it was one...I mean yesterday was another horrible day...only win was with TX and losses with NYM, CIN, COL and CSW (and they looked good early on...so they had a chance to win...and as you said you didnt play Tor bc he was not worth the -250 price tag...so the only thing was to play the CSW...)...anyway since the loss on the CSW doesnt matter at all...bc hell now the PR pick loosers again...so lets see what we have for today...

YTD (PR): 4-10 -5.8
YTD (run): 0-2 -2

maybe you could at least keep a record (+ units...bc a record is nothing w/o units in baseball) for the software plays...even if you dont post them...

here are todays plays:
COL
FLA

run: ARI...but no road dog

GL

[Formulawiz]

This is the last time I will post the plays or record for sportrends baseball program. I dont want them to get mad at me. They have treated me fairly and helped me over the years.

It went 3-0 yesterday. The Pythag thrm also went 4-0 but 3 out of 4 games agreed with the normal plays. TOR, TB, NYY and PYTH also had LAD

since May 15th 10-1 + 9 units for normal plays
PYTH Thrm 25-9
may 15th 7-5
may 16th 6-3
may 17th 8-1
may 18th 4-0
Thats it guys.

[caracalla]

with their program have you insert ERA daily manually? Or all automatically?

[peterpan19]

yesterday we went 1-0

record so far: 5-10 -4.05 (PR)

todays plays:
PR:
COL
BAL
PHI
ARZ
HOU
MIN
STL
SD
NYM

run: ATl, BOS, CIN, FLO, HOU, LAD, KC, CWS, STL, SEA...no road dog

GL

[Formulawiz]

with their program have you insert ERA daily manually? Or all automatically?

Team and pitching stats are automatically downloaded daily and includes ERA's. You can also do it manually. Much faster downloading

[peterpan19]

YTD: 7-15 -6.45
todays picks to follow later...

[peterpan19]

todays plays are: WAS, PHI and NYM (PR)
PIT, TB, HOU, KC, CWS and LAD according to run...but only PIT is a road dog

[Formulawiz]

I know I indicated I would not post records after yesterday but last night it was a bookie masacre and I went 6-0. The software had 4 plays and 4 wins. 2 games were over -200 and I dropped both games. The Pyth Therm went 8-1 but again I dropped both games since over -200 and it wound up 7-0. I am not sure how long this will continue but its unbelievable.

Since may 15th
Pathag Therm 32-9
Software plays 12-1 + 12.25 units

[hajune]

Ran across this software 4 years ago. I never was that good of handicapper in baseball. It was the best thing that ever happened to me. Last year, starting in May it was just over 100 units ahead. That is typical from the previous 3 years. The software tells you what to play. You don't have to think. I am not sure why anybody would not want to be without it. As stated play only teams under -200. According to another person I know he has used it for 15 years and it has never had a losing season. It's the best $50 I have ever spent! Formulawiz is right on. Selfishly I hope not too many get it. It will effect the odds.

[Formulawiz]

For you guys who have sportrends baseball software I came up with the win/loss record for pythag theorm since May 1. There were only 2 horrible days where it went 3-7 and 2-8. The other days were pretty good.
win/loss record was 83-48 =63.3% not bad

[trilfer]

For you guys who have sportrends baseball software I came up with the win/loss record for pythag theorm since May 1. There were only 2 horrible days where it went 3-7 and 2-8. The other days were pretty good.
win/loss record was 83-48 =63.3% not bad

i'm using the baseball software and its been really profitable so far. do you have any idea how the basketball and football softwares perform for both pro and college? in my opinion, the software pays for itself literally. thanks for introducing it to me!

[caracalla]

in program do you use YTD stats or 30 days ? Or do you check only schedule?

[Formulawiz]

in program do you use YTD stats or 30 days ? Or do you check only schedule?

The default setting is 30 days, but you can change # of days to any value including YTD.

[Tommygunn]

Formulawiz you must bet all the plays not just the best bets right?

[Formulawiz]

Formulawiz you must bet all the plays not just the best bets right?

Only play the Best Bets and it depends on the money line. If its over -175 I probably wont unless the pitcher is good going against a shit pitcher. Also look at the win/loss streaks very important. I also dont like streaks like the NYY are on, its too high at 7W and there bound to lose especially with a shit pitcher like Hughes. I hope they win. I wont play. So it becomes a judgement on your behalf. The other day I think it was the NYY when they were -250, I would not play them even though they won. Right now I am watching the Pythag Thrm and if I like the game I go with it.

[CashMoney]

Formulawiz,

Thanks for the heads up on the software. Although, my information differs from yours a bit I think it's a phenominal tool and look forward to using it from hear on out. Just playing the suggested picks would result in + units.

BTW - Hope I'm not driving you crazy with the PM's

[Formulawiz]

Formulawiz,

Thanks for the heads up on the software. Although, my information differs from yours a bit I think it's a phenominal tool and look forward to using it from hear on out. Just playing the suggested picks would result in + units.

BTW - Hope I'm not driving you crazy with the PM's

If I were you I would just play the best bets and not the regular plays. I have no w/l record on those plays.

[peterpan19]

guys...it just sounds too good to be true...I mean $50 and you get a ton of winners...I hate to buy picks...but I am curious now if it really works...so I might have to invest the few bucks to see it to believe it...

[kotzwell88]

how does it work? I'm a little confused..

[Formulawiz]

how does it work? I'm a little confused..

I presume you are referring to the baseball software. I have no idea how it works but it spits out all the plays for you automatically. I think Hajune explained it best.

[peterpan19]

another bad day.... record so far 7-18 -9.75
run: 1-2 -0.85

plays today:
PHI, CLE, BAL, SD (PR)
CIN, KC, OAK, HOU, SF...no road dogs

GL

[Formulawiz]

another bad day.... record so far 7-18 -9.75
run: 1-2 -0.85

plays today:
PHI, CLE, BAL, SD (PR)
CIN, KC, OAK, HOU, SF...no road dogs

GL

I believe you started the win/loss record on May 15. If so its amazing to me that if sportrends had stayed with their original thought to where you select the lower PR it would be winning pretty nicely now with a record of 18-7. I think you originally suggested they were incorrect. I think we need to look at this more carefully. Again we all have to realize that this is a new PR system which has never been time tested.
Again I am sticking with their software. Very small profit last night going 3-2

[peterpan19]

formulawiz
yeah your right...I started May 15th with the new record...I dont know what is right and what is wrong now...b4 May 15th we would have won with our current methode....and now we are loosing...maybe we have to go against it again ?

the record would be 18-7 and we would be up 8.15 units if we had done it like b4 (unfiltered)...but we would have had a lot plays over -130...filtered out the record would be 8-4 3.4 units up...so even if we play big favs we would still be up...will be interesting to see how it does today...I know I wouldnt play the NYY at -300 thats for sure...

12-6 +4.2 if filtered out all play above -175.... so just so you know...which means the system went 6-1 +3.95 units on favs of -175 and above...which is not bad if you like to lay the wood....

lets see how it does today.... so today the opp. plays would be CIN (-105), KC (-185), NYY (-300), SF (-145) ... maybe it works maybe it doesnt...

GL and how did the pythag theorm do yesterday ?...do you play them for 1 unit too or less ?

[Formulawiz]

formulawiz
yeah your right...I started May 15th with the new record...I dont know what is right and what is wrong now...b4 May 15th we would have won with our current methode....and now we are loosing...maybe we have to go against it again ?

the record would be 18-7 and we would be up 8.15 units if we had done it like b4 (unfiltered)...but we would have had a lot plays over -130...filtered out the record would be 8-4 3.4 units up...so even if we play big favs we would still be up...will be interesting to see how it does today...I know I wouldnt play the NYY at -300 thats for sure...

12-6 +4.2 if filtered out all play above -175.... so just so you know...which means the system went 6-1 +3.95 units on favs of -175 and above...which is not bad if you like to lay the wood....

lets see how it does today.... so today the opp. plays would be CIN (-105), KC (-185), NYY (-300), SF (-145) ... maybe it works maybe it doesnt...

GL and how did the pythag theorm do yesterday ?...do you play them for 1 unit too or less ?

Pete you have to remember we started the system too early. I never start making plays or using sportrends software prior to May 15th. I believe pitchers and teams have to get into a groove first and 20 IP is really not enough. Again thats my opinion. Look Baseball is a very long season and there is no sense in rushing to make plays, you have to give a system time to develope.

Secondly, I also think -130 could be way too low. Playing a -175 game might be fine depending on pitchers and streaks, this would have to be examined.

PT split, but again I am very weary of streaks that get above 3 games since they can turn around very quickly. EX: MIL 7W and going against a good pitcher. PHI 4W with shit pitcher Vs CIN 4L and Good pitcher. I guess you have to use some common sense here.

[peterpan19]

the problem with the way we choose the plays now is that most of the time they are really big dogs...9 out of the 25 games so far were 150 or above and the record is 3-6 -1.2...not postive but damn close...so far we only had plays on 6 favs and I dont know if I had to filter out a game so far....

anyway...I will keep track of the system as it is right now...I mean I dont put money on the games...so why not...baseball season is very long...so who knows how it looks next week...

[peterpan19]

looks like we have 2 early winners...so as soon as we start to complain the system hits us right back with two winners...

[Formulawiz]

the problem with the way we choose the plays now is that most of the time they are really big dogs...9 out of the 25 games so far were 150 or above and the record is 3-6 -1.2...not postive but damn close...so far we only had plays on 6 favs and I dont know if I had to filter out a game so far....

anyway...I will keep track of the system as it is right now...I mean I dont put money on the games...so why not...baseball season is very long...so who knows how it looks next week...

I agree that the system prdominantly takes dogs. But I think thats good in the long run. Look its a new system and we should monitor it before coming to any conclusions. Today it took CLE and that was a big 2-1 win for us.

[Bobby518]

I agree that the system prdominantly takes dogs. But I think thats good in the long run. Look its a new system and we should monitor it before coming to any conclusions. Today it took CLE and that was a big 2-1 win for us.

Hey there Form:

I've also got the (latest I think) version of Fastball, and the Py screen today said "Play Kansas City". You said it "took CLE".

Help a guy out here? Where would I see that on the program? Am I missing something??

Thanks in advance,

Bobby

[Formulawiz]

Hey there Form:

I've also got the (latest I think) version of Fastball, and the Py screen today said "Play Kansas City". You said it "took CLE".

Help a guy out here? Where would I see that on the program? Am I missing something??

Thanks in advance,

Bobby

We are not talking about the software, we are talking about the PR system. Secondly if you are using the software you have no business playing KC at a price of -210. I dont care what the software says.

[Bobby518]

We are not talking about the software, we are talking about the PR system. Secondly if you are using the software you have no business playing KC at a price of -210. I dont care what the software says.

I didn't play either. Never anything over 170, usually 140.

Thanks for the reply. Sorry to intrude.

Bobby

[Formulawiz]

I didn't play either. Never anything over 170, usually 140.

Thanks for the reply. Sorry to intrude.

Bobby

I usually dont play games above -175, but there are cases where I do. The situation has to be correct for me such as team and pitching streaks. A good pitcher vs a shit opponents pitcher, a better bullpen because thats where I believe the game is won or lost and etc. For ex: sportrends pthag Thrm picked BOS and STL, I happened to like these games for many reasons and played them. The PT went 7-2 yesterday but there were 3 games above -175 or actually -200 that I would not play that went 2-1. I saved myself a very small loss.

[peterpan19]

well...the system produced some nice winners yesterday...going 3-1 +3.00 units
so record so far is: 10-19 -6.75 (PR)

today plays to follow later...

[peterpan19]

todays picks:
PR:
ATL
CWS
STL
CHC
LAD

run:
CIN, TOR, PIT, LAA...PIT and LAA are both road dogs...but LAD and CWS are plays for PR...so lets hope the line changes and LAD and CWS wont be plays anymore...