New Baseball Power Rating System

[peterpan19]

plays for today:
PIT (1 unit play) around -127 right now...so it should be a play even b4 gametime
MIN (1 unit play) around -175 right now...so it could be close...we will have to see the line rigth b4 gametime

[cocknocker]

So does this system actually encourage more plays on favorites? You know that I'm a crumbs man...

[peterpan19]

ck
to be honest...I dont know...its the first year I am using it...I guess in two weeks we will know more...

[Formulawiz]

So does this system actually encourage more plays on favorites? You know that I'm a crumbs man...

I dont know either. I believe this is something sportrends has been working on so it must be a new system.

[genero]

3-3 , another 50% system that a coin will accomplish with less effort

[Formulawiz]

3-3 , another 50% system that a coin will accomplish with less effort

Your wisdom is astounding. If you have something of value to add let us know. If not, you need to learn baseball handicapping.

[Formulawiz]

overall record (both agree): 4-4 -0.56 units (depending on the line you got)
pitcher PR only: 1-0 +0.51
ATL
SF 1/2
ARI 1/2
LAD 1/2
BOS 2 game losing streak
TEX 2 game losing streak
SEA

Peter See if you agree

[peterpan19]

1-1 yesterday... I see Min as a play at -175 and Pit at -130

YTD (both):4-4 -0.46
YTD (pitching PR): 1-0 0.51

todays picks to follow shortly...

[peterpan19]

picks today:
1 unit: (line can change)
ATL (-127)
BOS (-108)
TEX (-120)
SEA (-128)

.5 unit:
SF (-138)
ARZ (-124)
LAD (-162)

GL

[peterpan19]

yesterday the system went 2-2 -0.7 units (both) and 2-1 +0.325 (pitching PR only)

YTD (both): 6-6 -1.16
YTD (pitching): 3-1 +0.835

todays picks to follow...

[peterpan19]

todays picks:
1 unit (lines are subject to change)
CLE (+105)
STL (-125)
CHC (-163)

so it looks like we will have 3 plays today...

GL

[Formulawiz]

ERROR in sportrends money line

Last night I noticed sportrends money line of -175 went to -130 max. I called them and they told me they accidently made a mistake when someone pointed it out to them. They corrected it a few days ago. Its too late to go back and recalculate the games for our records but I did any way for my own curiousity.
This is what I got
From APR 22 to APR 30, 12-10 + 2.75 units
For May so far, 2 -1 + 0.2 units
Anyway from today on lets be careful to use -130 as a fav max.

[Formulawiz]

todays picks:
1 unit (lines are subject to change)
CLE (+105)
STL (-125)
CHC (-163)

so it looks like we will have 3 plays today...

GL

Games for today are
CLE
STL if -130 or <

[peterpan19]

ok since we only play games that are lower -130 or equal to, I eliminated all plays that were above -130 so far...

the new record including yesterdays lost looks like this
YTD (starting April 27th, both): 4-6 -2.76
YTD (pitching only): 2-0 +1.01

but dont forget we shouldnt start playing games b4 May 15th anyway...so this is just an early experiment...the real record will start May 15...

GL...today picks to follow shortly

[peterpan19]

plays for today:
1 unit:
ATL (line around -115 right now)
DET (around -125)
TOR (around -115)
TB (line too high, no play)
KC (line too high, no play)
STL (line will probably be too high)
LAA


.5 unit:
COL (around -115)

so it looks like we will have a few plays...dont forget to check the lines 30 min b4 the first pitch

GL

[genero]

maybe if you played the games that are +130 or abovve the record would be better, if they are good the moneyline doesnt matter. you dont lose value when the moneyline grows, it doesnt effect the teammsplay!

unlike football or basketball where the spread can be so high, favorites dont cover, in baseball there is no spread, so moneyline doesnt matter

THERE i contributed.... now lets get your "system" over .500 in the next month

[twister]

maybe if you played the games that are +130 or abovve the record would be better, if they are good the moneyline doesnt matter. you dont lose value when the moneyline grows, it doesnt effect the teammsplay!

unlike football or basketball where the spread can be so high, favorites dont cover, in baseball there is no spread, so moneyline doesnt matter

THERE i contributed.... now lets get your "system" over .500 in the next month

Are you judging a system after...what? 6 games? Are you ****ing kidding me?

I've seen many idiots on this forum, you might take the crown for the biggest one yet.

This system has no appeal to me, as I don't like relying on things I can't control for years to come (i.e these power ratings), when they could be gone next year. However, just had to comment on the idiocracy of this post.

[Formulawiz]

Are you judging a system after...what? 6 games? Are you ****ing kidding me?

I've seen many idiots on this forum, you might take the crown for the biggest one yet.

This system has no appeal to me, as I don't like relying on things I can't control for years to come (i.e these power ratings), when they could be gone next year. However, just had to comment on the idiocracy of this post.

I agree 6 games means nothing. I am having a hard time figuring out what exactly sportrends is doing to come up with their power ratings. Any thought out there. Secondly this system is new so we will have to see how it performs.

[peterpan19]

early plays:
1 unit
HOU

[peterpan19]

overall record (both):5-8 -4.11
overall record (pitching): 3-0 +1.51

todays plays:
NYM
MIN
NYY
FLA (half unit)
CWS
OAK
SEA

GL and dont forget to check the lines 15 min b4 first pitch and dont play anything above -130

[Tommygunn]

Formulawiz are you still using sportrends last system "fastball program"

[Formulawiz]

overall record (both):5-8 -4.11
overall record (pitching): 3-0 +1.51

todays plays:
NYM
MIN
NYY
FLA (half unit)
CWS
OAK
SEA

GL and dont forget to check the lines 15 min b4 first pitch and dont play anything above -130

Peter,
I think there is some confusion here.
The games I have are
HOU
FLA 1/2
NYM
MIN
NYY
KC
OAK
SEA over -130

[Formulawiz]

Formulawiz are you still using sportrends last system "fastball program"

Yes I am

[Formulawiz]

sportrends MLB PR system

Guys any ideas. It seems the PR system is taking alot of favorites and although our Win/Loss record is around 50% which is fine in baseball, we keep getting nickled and dimed slowley. It looks if we play opposite the PR ratings and go with the dogs and split, at least we will make a small profit.

[twister]

Guys any ideas. It seems the PR system is taking alot of favorites and although our Win/Loss record is around 50% which is fine in baseball, we keep getting nickled and dimed slowley. It looks if we play opposite the PR ratings and go with the dogs and split, at least we will make a small profit.

As with all new systems, you should be paper trading it for a season before you evaluate how well it does/changes need to made. Patience is key. If you go and change it now, and then for the rest of the season the original system does as it is supposed to, not only will you miss profits, but will have your ass handed to you in major losses.

I at the guy for judging a system after 6 games, but you are making the same mistake as he is. In MLB, especially a system that looks like it will churn out 500-700 plays a season, to judge it/amend it after a handful of plays is utterly stupid.

[Formulawiz]

As with all new systems, you should be paper trading it for a season before you evaluate how well it does/changes need to made. Patience is key. If you go and change it now, and then for the rest of the season the original system does as it is supposed to, not only will you miss profits, but will have your ass handed to you in major losses.

I at the guy for judging a system after 6 games, but you are making the same mistake as he is. In MLB, especially a system that looks like it will churn out 500-700 plays a season, to judge it/amend it after a handful of plays is utterly stupid.

Good advice.

[peterpan19]

formulawiz
your right KC was the play not the CWS...but I had all the other plays too...yesterday we had wins with NYM and KC, losses with FLO (1/2), Min, NYY

YTD (both):7-10 (-4.36)
YTD (pitching): 3-1 (0.885)

todays picks to follow...

[peterpan19]

todays plays:
MIN
NYY
BOS
CIN
NYM
ATL
SF
LAD

dont forget to play no lines above -130

GL

[Formulawiz]

todays plays:
MIN
NYY
BOS
CIN
NYM
ATL
SF
LAD

dont forget to play no lines above -130

GL

ATL NO play. Not enough IP's for Taylor

[peterpan19]

good to have someone who double checks it
thx formulawiz

GL

[peterpan19]

early plays:

ATL
PIT
ARZ

[Formulawiz]

New MLB PR System

I spoke to sportrends this afternoon and they told me they are developing a new baseball PR system as we speak. Hopefully they will post it as well.

[peterpan19]

later plays:
NYY
MIL
CHC

[peterpan19]

YTD (both): 8-16 -10.16
YTD (pitching): 3-1 +0.885

todays picks to follow

[peterpan19]

todays plays:
CLE .5
TB
CIN .5
SEA
WAS

GL