New Baseball Power Rating System

[kotzwell88]

does it say which are the best of the picks or just which to play???

[kotzwell88]

dont mean to ask if it is a problem?

[Formulawiz]

does it say which are the best of the picks or just which to play???

I am not sure what you are referring to. If its the PR picks you have to subtract both pitcher PR's and then there has to be a 20 point diff. If your talking about the software, it make plays for you and some of the plays are best bets.

[hajune]

Sportstrends software using the pyththerom is a delite to use. Baseball is an unique sport. 9 players but 70% depends on pitching. You can not handicap baseball like other sports. I am gifted at handicapping basketball and football but the methods used can not be pluged into baseball. Sporttrends software does what I could not do. I am not quite sure why he only charges $50 for it. It gets 100 units above or around there every year. It is kicking butt again. I think though, you can's start it until middle May or at the earliest May 1st. I never had any success early on. too much to know. Teams like Tampa Bay last year went from last to first. you have to let the season unfold before you can tell who is who and what is what.

[Formulawiz]

Here is a great example tonight going opposite the PT play and using your head. BOS/NYM game. NYM opens at -140 and one hour or so prior to start of game BOS is now -120. That is a 60 cent movement. I dont know about you guys but that is a hugh movement. This shows you how really stupid the public is. The bookies were licking their chops. How can you not take NYM with Santana one of the best pitchers in the majors and getting + 110. If you did not load up on the NYM I dont know what to tell you. This is one of the best plays of the year.

[peterpan19]

PR went 2-2 with a small profit, run went 1-1 with a small profit....
YTD (PR): 12-21 -6.45
YTD (run): 2-3 -0.75

todays plays:
PR:
HOU (play...)
CWS (maybe..)
BOS (no play...)

run:
TX, DET, NYM...only NYM are road dogs

GL

[Formulawiz]

I had to give you guys an update on sportrends software Best Bets since May 15th when I first started.

YTD 16-4 80% and + 11.5 units
Pythag Thrm is way up there too I would have to go back and check. Last night it went 5-3 with a small profit.

[twister]

Sportstrends software using the pyththerom is a delite to use. Baseball is an unique sport. 9 players but 70% depends on pitching. You can not handicap baseball like other sports. I am gifted at handicapping basketball and football but the methods used can not be pluged into baseball. Sporttrends software does what I could not do. I am not quite sure why he only charges $50 for it. It gets 100 units above or around there every year. It is kicking butt again. I think though, you can's start it until middle May or at the earliest May 1st. I never had any success early on. too much to know. Teams like Tampa Bay last year went from last to first. you have to let the season unfold before you can tell who is who and what is what.

I've never used this software, so I cannot say conclusively, but I imagine that if the software is as good [and steady] as you say and regularly churns out 100 units a year, then the software creator doesn't NEED to charge big money for the software; he is making money from the books.

Think about this:

$20,000 starting bank. Flat risking 1% of your starting bank on each bet. $200 units. 100 units won, thus $20,000 won. You have doubled your bankroll.

If you continue at this rate, doubling your bankroll each year, it takes [20k,40k,80k,160k,320k,640k,1.28m] 7 years to become a millionaire with a 20k starting bank. Seeing as this software has been around for quite a number of years [forumla wiz says he has been using it for over a decade if I recall correctly], than in theory, the guy that is selling/created this software should be a multi-millionaire by now.

Ofcourse, this is assuming he had books with limits of $7000 or more [like Pinnacle etc] to make such bets, and he had the foresight to add his end-of-season profits into the following seasons starting bank.

[Formulawiz]

I've never used this software, so I cannot say conclusively, but I imagine that if the software is as good [and steady] as you say and regularly churns out 100 units a year, then the software creator doesn't NEED to charge big money for the software; he is making money from the books.

Think about this:

$20,000 starting bank. Flat risking 1% of your starting bank on each bet. $200 units. 100 units won, thus $20,000 won. You have doubled your bankroll.

If you continue at this rate, doubling your bankroll each year, it takes [20k,40k,80k,160k,320k,640k,1.28m] 7 years to become a millionaire with a 20k starting bank. Seeing as this software has been around for quite a number of years [forumla wiz says he has been using it for over a decade if I recall correctly], than in theory, the guy that is selling/created this software should be a multi-millionaire by now.

Ofcourse, this is assuming he had books with limits of $7000 or more [like Pinnacle etc] to make such bets, and he had the foresight to add his end-of-season profits into the following seasons starting bank.

Twister I would agree with your assumptions. I dont see why sportrends has to sell their software for more then $50. I am sure they have a large following being around since late 1980's and I would assume they do well by selling the software in quantity. One thing I would like to point out we all know that most people are not comfortable wagering on baseball because they dont understand it. I find baseball to be the easiest sport to beat the bookies at and I do much better in baseball then in any sport because there is no line.

[peterpan19]

twister
think about if you would bet 1% of your bankroll each time...like if you win your first bet you have $20,200 so now you would bet $202...I think you would be up even more that way...

[peterpan19]

YTD (PR): 12-22 -7.45
YTD (run):3-3 0.95 (nice win on the Mets)

todays picks:
PR:
PHI
TOR
BAL
PIT
ARZ
SD
LAA
MIN

run:
CIN, CWS, KC, CHC, SEA, LAD, MIL....but only MIL, KC and CHC are on the road...

GL

[Formulawiz]

Another unbelievable day again. I went 5-0.
Sportrends Best Bets 1-0, YTD 17-4, 81%, +12.5 units
Pythag Therm went 6-3 yesterday and YTD I dont know but well over 65%

For those of you using the software let me explain my reasoning for why I dropped 4 games yesterday. I think you can easily figure them out without mentioning teams. I believe this can improve your win/loss records substantially.
First game team was on a 7 game winning streak bound to reverse
Second game New pitcher Vs a good pitcher
Third game team Off a loss and line way too high over -200
Fourth Game Team on a 7 game winning streak bound to reverse
Dropping these games saved me a 1-3 record. Again I stress, some common sense should be used when you analyze each game.

[hajune]

Thought I would weigh my 2 cents worth in. The sportrends software has data from past years also. You can easlily see it wins year after year. I do not think though playing it before May is a good thing. Pitchers and teams need to establish a rhythm. Also I wait 5 days after the All Star game. Too many days off between games. Also the last 2 games of the season are not good to play. I still do not know why he charges only $50 for it. When something is that good $200 is a bargain. I am not sure if any handicappers hit 100+ units a year as this seems to average. What is so good about it is that it tells you the plays. Just read it off the each game and it says if it is a play or not. You do not have to think beyond that . Nice that something is out there that works as claimed. in fact it works better. Formulawiz is a smart guy. He finds something that works and sticks with it. Nice of him to share with everybody.

[Formulawiz]

For those of you following sportrends software, BB went 0-1 and 1 game dropped out due to high ML. Yesterday PT had a miserable day. Since 5/1 which is 25 days ago I believe 3 bad days is still pretty damn good.

As far as other plays Peter will continue with his w/l records.
Keep up the good work.

[peterpan19]

PR went 4-3 +2.95 units
YTD (PR): 16-25 -4.5 (its getting better everyday now)
run went 1-1 +0.4
YTD (run): 4-4 +1.35

todays PR plays are:
CIN
BAL
NYY
BOS
OAK
SF
PHI

run plays: NYY, KC, MIN, ARZ, PIT...only road teams are NYY and PIT

GL

[madness]

For those of you following sportrends software, BB went 0-1 and 1 game dropped out due to high ML. Yesterday PT had a miserable day. Since 5/1 which is 25 days ago I believe 3 bad days is still pretty damn good.

As far as other plays Peter will continue with his w/l records.
Keep up the good work.

Hey Formula,

I did purchase their software and see the pythagrium stuff, but not sure how to determine best bets? I can email them, but thought you may be able to point me in the right direction.

madness

[peterpan19]

madness
on the screen you see the plays...when its a best bet it will say not only play team A and Pitcher B but also that it is a best bet

hope that helps

[madness]

thanks peterpan...i dont know how i missed it the first time thru. Only other question is the program gives you the option for last 30 games or full season of stats for making the predictions. Not sure if you can comment on what has produced best results. I apologize if this is duplication of material.

thanks!

[Bobby518]

For those of you following sportrends software, BB went 0-1 and 1 game dropped out due to high ML. Yesterday PT had a miserable day. Since 5/1 which is 25 days ago I believe 3 bad days is still pretty damn good.

As far as other plays Peter will continue with his w/l records.
Keep up the good work.

The software has been rotten the last 3 days . . . .

(Friday was 8 - 4, though . . .)

[Formulawiz]

The software has been rotten the last 3 days . . . .

(Friday was 8 - 4, though . . .)

Bobby, I dont know what your looking at but I think 3-2 the last 3 days for Best Bets is not bad and I think 17-5 since 5/15 in your terms is even more rotten. If your referring to the PT system then this is a system that I have never used so its untested. I started looking at it since 5/1. If you go back to 5/1 give us a win/loss record for the PT system and drop any game above -175 which should not be played anyway. Lets see how rotten the system really is. When I said I never had a losing season for the past 10 years or so I was referring to the best bets. Look there is nothing around that can win at a 100% pace. Your obviously going to have some ugly days, thats the nature of the beast.

[rpbrownie]

So you just purchase the Fastball Baseball Software for 49.95? Not the the Monthly Premium selections? Correct? Thanks for the info on the post guys.

[peterpan19]

PR went 5-1 +4.1 units
run went 2-0 +2.35 units

YTD (PR): 21-26 -0.4
YTD (run): 6-4 +3.7

todays plays PR:
CLE
PHI
MIL
NYY
PIT
DET
BOS
CWS

run: TB, STL, TX, KC, BOS...TB, STL and BOS are road teams

GL

[Formulawiz]

PR went 5-1 +4.1 units
run went 2-0 +2.35 units

YTD (PR): 21-26 -0.4
YTD (run): 6-4 +3.7

todays plays PR:
CLE
PHI
MIL
NYY
PIT
DET
BOS
CWS

run: TB, STL, TX, KC, BOS...TB, STL and BOS are road teams

GL

Peter,
I was just thinking how far ahead financially would we be since 5/1, if we were using the current PR system. If it were not for the jackass at sportrends who wrote the description up backwards relating to the current PR system on their website we would be killing them. I was wondering what the record would actually be if we started on 5/1. We would be rich. Can you verify. I just seem to remember the win/loss record and units were horrible back then when we started on 5/1. I believe it was something like 12-25

[peterpan19]

formulawiz

12-26...at least thats what my excelsheet says...but I also have to say that a lot of plays were filtered bc they were over -130 using the old wrong system....so to have an accurate record I would have to go back in this thread here and check all my posts from May 1st to May 13th again...if I have time I will do it later on...but even w/o I think we can say it was pretty good...

anyway we are almost back even right now...and if the trend continues we could have another great day today...

GL

[mantorras77]

Bobby, I dont know what your looking at but I think 3-2 the last 3 days for Best Bets is not bad and I think 17-5 since 5/15 in your terms is even more rotten. If your referring to the PT system then this is a system that I have never used so its untested. I started looking at it since 5/1. If you go back to 5/1 give us a win/loss record for the PT system and drop any game above -175 which should not be played anyway. Lets see how rotten the system really is. When I said I never had a losing season for the past 10 years or so I was referring to the best bets. Look there is nothing around that can win at a 100% pace. Your obviously going to have some ugly days, thats the nature of the beast.

Hey Wiz....how you getting 3-2 last 3 days for BB's??? I'm coming up with 1-3:

5/23 1-0 STL
5/24 0-1 DET
5/25 0-2 MIN, LAA

Also, I'm getting 14-7 +531 since 5/15 using the default 30 days stats...

Interesting note though.....i'm getting 17-6 +918 since 5/15 using the YTD (99) stats....

[peterpan19]

ok I just went over it again and looked at all my post here from May 1st to May 14th

the record would be 45-35 (56.25%) +17.45 units using the new and correct system...so not too bad I guess

[Formulawiz]

formulawiz

12-26...at least thats what my excelsheet says...but I also have to say that a lot of plays were filtered bc they were over -130 using the old wrong system....so to have an accurate record I would have to go back in this thread here and check all my posts from May 1st to May 13th again...if I have time I will do it later on...but even w/o I think we can say it was pretty good...

anyway we are almost back even right now...and if the trend continues we could have another great day today...

GL

I personally think filtering out plays over -130 is too low. I think
-150 to -160 would be fine.

[Formulawiz]

Hey Wiz....how you getting 3-2 last 3 days for BB's??? I'm coming up with 1-3:

5/23 1-0 STL
5/24 0-1 DET
5/25 0-2 MIN, LAA

Also, I'm getting 14-7 +531 since 5/15 using the default 30 days stats...

Interesting note though.....i'm getting 17-6 +918 since 5/15 using the YTD (99) stats....

Your YTD is correct, but since 5-21 1-1, 5/22 1-0, 5/23 1-0, 5/24 0-1 and yesterday 0-2
thats 3-4. I was not counting yesterday so I had 3-2

did you go back to PT plays since 5/1

[caracalla]

Your YTD is correct, but since 5-21 1-1, 5/22 1-0, 5/23 1-0, 5/24 0-1 and yesterday 0-2
thats 3-4. I was not counting yesterday so I had 3-2

did you go back to PT plays since 5/1

Why not counting yesterday? Reason?

[Formulawiz]

Why not counting yesterday? Reason?

Because I believe the games were not over when the post was made

[rpbrownie]

I had to give you guys an update on sportrends software Best Bets since May 15th when I first started.

YTD 16-4 80% and + 11.5 units
Pythag Thrm is way up there too I would have to go back and check. Last night it went 5-3 with a small profit.

Formulawiz,

Are you using the Fastball Program to get the best bets that you will not post? And this is different than the software picks Peterpan is posting?

I just want to get it right because it seems worth the $50 to give it a shot.

[caracalla]

Because I believe the games were not over when the post was made

So for stats you have to count yesterday 0-2

[facasto]

I'm confused...
What is the REAL REAL REAL record for BestBet from software?
No filter, no personal reason, etc etc.... only software result!

[facasto]

ok I just went over it again and looked at all my post here from May 1st to May 14th

the record would be 45-35 (56.25%) +17.45 units using the new and correct system...so not too bad I guess

I have lots of stats that, from 2/3/4...../30 days/months/years ago are profitable.
Problem is.... from now on?
Since this thread started, you changes YTD results several times...
Everyone is able to have ++++ results..... after.

OK you are studiyng method, but, please, you can start YTD results only when you decide right method, opening a new thread

[Xpertcapper]

Formula i purchased the fastball baseball from sportrends to try it out but have no idea how to use or download what i purchased. Can you help?