New Baseball Power Rating System

rpbrownie · 05-31-09, 07:56 PM

Maybe you guys can help me out since I am a newbie and don't want to get into trouble. I am learning money management and want to know the best way to bet this system. I understand units completely but r u guys betting one unit per BB bet and one unit on the PT bets too or still holding out? Would it be smart to maybe do 1/2 unit bets on the PTs if its been good till maybe the AS Break (except for today but they happen)? Are you using rolling bank rolls of a certain % or keeping the bets flat?

Thanks

Formulawiz · 05-31-09, 10:08 PM

Originally posted by rpbrownie

Maybe you guys can help me out since I am a newbie and don't want to get into trouble. I am learning money management and want to know the best way to bet this system. I understand units completely but r u guys betting one unit per BB bet and one unit on the PT bets too or still holding out? Would it be smart to maybe do 1/2 unit bets on the PTs if its been good till maybe the AS Break (except for today but they happen)? Are you using rolling bank rolls of a certain % or keeping the bets flat?

Thanks

Are you using sportrends software and asking about the software plays or asking about the PR system

peterpan19 · 06-01-09, 04:35 AM

PR went 4-1 +4.2 units
run went 0-2 -2.0 units (6 game lost in a row now)

YTD (PR): 33-44 -4.35
YTD (run): 6-10 -2.3

todays plays:
PR: PIT, STL
run: OAK, CIN

GL

rpbrownie · 06-01-09, 07:25 AM

Originally posted by Formulawiz

Are you using sportrends software and asking about the software plays or asking about the PR system

I am using the software not the PR system

Formulawiz · 06-01-09, 08:30 AM

Software BB YTD = 23-11, 68%, 9.25 units
PT YTD 64-37, 63.4%, 23.45 units
Lets hope for a better day today. Some way to lose NYY and TEX in extra innings.

Formulawiz · 06-01-09, 01:23 PM

Pitching change for CHW, Floyd now going and NO BB today

Xpertcapper · 06-01-09, 01:43 PM

BB?

Xpertcapper · 06-01-09, 01:45 PM

oops bb = best bet

Cannaloop · 06-02-09, 07:57 AM

5 PT plays and 3 BB's today?

peterpan19 · 06-02-09, 11:36 AM

PR plays today: ATL, TB, HOU
run: CHC, KC

GL

6 PT plays and 3 BB plus 1 if you use full year (=4)...but 2 BB will drop out and also 2 PT plays, ~~maybe 3~~ (my mistake)

Venkman · 06-02-09, 12:19 PM

3 Best Bet's is correct. One of those could be discarded due to a high line.

Nick6570 · 06-02-09, 01:27 PM

I can see how one might drop, but i dont see how two BB could possibly drop.
And i only see a possibility of 2 PT dropping, no way 3 will.

peterpan19 · 06-03-09, 04:43 AM

BB only 1-2 again...in case you played Min...kind of a borderline call once again...some books and casinos had -180 some had -175...PT went 3-3

PR went 2-0 and run went 0-2

todays plays will follow shortly

peterpan19 · 06-03-09, 06:15 AM

PR YTD record: 36-45 -2.3
run YTD record: 7-13 -4.2 (1-9 -7.9 for the last 10 plays)

todays PR plays are:
HOU, STL, SD, ARZ
run plays are:
KC, CIN, PHI

peterpan19 · 06-03-09, 09:24 AM

2 BB today and I see 7 PT plays....both BB look they will be plays...but 1 of the PT will drop for sure

Formulawiz · 06-03-09, 09:26 AM

Originally posted by peterpan19

BB only 1-2 again...in case you played Min...kind of a borderline call once again...some books and casinos had -180 some had -175...PT went 3-3

PR went 2-0 and run went 0-2

todays plays will follow shortly

Peter I had 4-0 yesterday with the PR system. ATL, HOU, BOS and TB.

peterpan19 · 06-03-09, 09:32 AM

TB was -160...so a no play...dont forget everything over -130 is a no play (and btw it is not very often that the PR chooses a big fav anyway)...and Bos was a no play too, bc Dice-K had not 20 IP...

cards52 · 06-03-09, 09:59 PM

Help for new user of software

Purchased software a couple of days ago and have a couple questions. Using the software is pretty straight forward. But I was wondering what everyone is using for filters to determine plays after getting the bb's and pt's from the software. Things like line movements, before/after travel days, ect..

Also, has anyone used the software for playing totals? I noticed the predicted runs and didn't know if anyone had tracked this against the lines.

Thanks for your help.

peterpan19 · 06-04-09, 04:03 AM

well another horrible day for PT...only went 1-5...BB went again 0-2...record for the last 1.5 week now I think at 7-10 -5.76 (as far as my numbers show it)...so we all know that this system makes a profit of 100 units a year...so lets just say hang in there...better days will come for sure...and dont bet less or fade the systme bc when you do it will kill you for sure...

PR went 1-3 -2.4
run went 2-1 +1.15

todays PR plays are:
DET, CLE, OAK, CHC, MIL, COl, CIN

run play:
CLE

GL

rpbrownie · 06-04-09, 07:23 AM

You got that right peter and my bank roll shows it. Of course I started at the beginning of the slump. Hopefully we can make up some ground today

BOL

peterpan19 · 06-04-09, 08:28 AM

ok we got 3 BB today using 30 days data....and one additional if we use the whole year...2 BB could end up being no plays...
and we also have 7 PT plays (30 days) today...

right ?

GL

peterpan19 · 06-04-09, 09:34 AM

wiz
your PM box is full...

Nick6570 · 06-04-09, 06:35 PM

Question

Does fastball allow for backtesting for this year??
If i put in a date say May 05, 2009 will it give me 30 previous to May 05, 2009 or will it use the data 30 days from whatever day it might be??
hope that made some kind of sense

Nick6570 · 06-04-09, 07:59 PM

also, not sure how many people have taken a statistics class in college or high school. but data itself shows patters over a period of time. Ive just started keeping detailed records on a number of statistics for the PT system. My goal is to try to find patterns that will help narrow down some losses. Im going to wait till probably the end of June before I show my findings, but if anyone has any recommendations on any statistics to follow, please let me know.

peterpan19 · 06-04-09, 08:06 PM

backtesting is possible...

peterpan19 · 06-05-09, 03:30 AM

BB went 2-0...PT went 2-3....right ?

PR went 2-4 and run went 0-1...todays plays will be up later...

Formulawiz · 06-05-09, 05:28 AM

Originally posted by peterpan19

BB went 2-0...PT went 2-3....right ?

PR went 2-4 and run went 0-1...todays plays will be up later...

I had 2-2 on the PT system and 2-2 on the Run line, 2-0 BB

sailorman2439 · 06-05-09, 08:10 AM

Am I missing something? I had BB go 2-1. Did you guys throw out a game for some reason?

peterpan19 · 06-05-09, 02:30 PM

PR plays for today:
TOR; BOS; CIN, COL, SD

run plays for today:
TX, COL, ARZ, MIN

GL

sailorman
you got 1 more BB if you used full year data...

Nick6570 · 06-06-09, 01:33 AM

So another bad day with the BB as well as PT system
I am starting to get a little worried. So far this month of june has been awful
For the PT (My numbers might vary ) but but im showing 6-16?? Even if im a little off, this still show has terrible this month as been so far. Does anyone have any reason why you might this this is happening??

peterpan19 · 06-06-09, 03:57 AM

PR went 2-2 +0.95 units
run went 3-0 +4.3 units

todays plays:
PR: MIL
run: PIT, TX, ARZ (only if dog)

twister · 06-06-09, 04:42 AM

Originally posted by Nick6570

So another bad day with the BB as well as PT system
I am starting to get a little worried. So far this month of june has been awful
For the PT (My numbers might vary ) but but im showing 6-16?? Even if im a little off, this still show has terrible this month as been so far. Does anyone have any reason why you might this this is happening??

You take [or have taken] classes in statistics, yet you are worried about a 6-16 run? Re-read the chapter about variance.

Formulawiz himself has said numerous times he has used this software for more than a decade making circa 100 units profit every year.

This goes out to anyone that concerns themselves about short-term losses/fluctuations; go and read books on 'trader psychology' or any poker book that deals with the 'psychology of poker'.

peterpan19 · 06-06-09, 05:01 AM

and as we said b4 we have no idea how good the PT plays are...so only play them light...hell if someone has the guts to do it then fade the BB and make money...but I think as soon as you go against them they will burn you...it has one good thing....everybody who didnt play them so far can even make more money if he jumps aboard now...

GL

Formulawiz · 06-06-09, 06:15 AM

Originally posted by peterpan19

and as we said b4 we have no idea how good the PT plays are...so only play them light...hell if someone has the guts to do it then fade the BB and make money...but I think as soon as you go against them they will burn you...it has one good thing....everybody who didnt play them so far can even make more money if he jumps aboard now...

GL

I have posted several times, teams that are on a 2 or more game losing streak should not be played on. Teams such as NYM, SD, DET, KC, CWS and BAL all fall into this categorie. You should play against these teams only when the BB or PT generates the play. Its as simple as that. I also said teams that are on a 4 or more game winning or losing streak, beware of because they can reverse themselves very quickly. If we follow these simple rules we stand to make more money.

peterpan19 · 06-06-09, 06:20 AM

record for BB(30 days data) since May 15th....every play 30-21 -0.5 units
only plays -175 or less 22-16 +1.4 units
so for new players now is probably a good time to start...

it also looks like a good idea so far to fade the plays over -175...but I dont recommend it