So it looks like today we have 2 BBs with one (odds) poss the other being no play (if you follow wiz's rules) and 5 PT plays but due to streaks and odds only 2 may qualify. Correct???
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Baseball Streaks
I am not here to lecture anyone but give some insight to what I do when handicapping and if someone can add to this it would be nice. Baseball is unlike any other sport and we all know baseball is a game of streaks and pitching and this includes the bullpen. Therefore some common sense on all our parts is required. I know I have mentioned this several times, Do Not plays teams on a 2 or more game losing streak or against teams on a 2 or more game winning streak and I dont care what plays are generated by any system. Of course there are situations and exceptions where this does not apply for me. If both teams are on a winning or losing streak and the system picks one of those teams thats fine. If home teams are going for a sweep especially against a shit team thats fine. On the other hand if a road team is going for a sweep I stay away from that team. One other thought, teams that are over a 4 game winning or losing streaks be careful because they can reverse very quickly. Now I am not saying not to play these teams just beware and if need be wager less. Those are some simple rules I use when I handicap.
Right now both Peter and I are following another sportrends system that has been on fire for over 2 weeks now. We will continue to monitor and will inform you shortly as to our findings.
Here are a few examples from last night.
KC-L7/TOR-L2. This is fine to take TOR even though on 2 game losing streak because KC on L7 and a piece of shit.
CWS-L3/CLE-L1, Cant take CWS, 3 game losing streak.
BAL-L2/OAK-W3 obvious play.
SEA-W2/MIN-W1 good play.Comment -
Wiz...maybe rules wasnt the right term and I wish I knew enough to truly help but I am learning and any insight is greatly appreciated. I understand baseball and played it competitively till just last year at 30, but betting it is very new to me. Thanks and look forward to the new system.Comment -
ok lines are already pretty high for both BB today...I think both will be over -175 by gametime...so no plays for me...one was filtered out already and the other is a borderline call too...but if the line comes to -175 its a no play...
GLComment -
First, off I was just making a point, and honestly dont need your smartass opinion.Originally posted by twister
Second, I was just asking for advice, ive never tracked stats this much so i was ASKING if this usually happens around this time or what. Since other people have tracked these stats.
Finally, im talking about the PT not the BB so i would advise you reread post before you make unnecessary comments.
If not here to help then why dont you just stop posting and leave the fourm, beacuse i really dont need the opinion of a SmartassComment -
So with BB plays there has been practically no profit, what about with PT plays? Are they still with a positive record and + units?Originally posted by peterpan19Comment -
I just received an email regarding whether to play on TOR today. I just got finished posting about teams that are on a 4 or more game losing streak and indicated if you like the game perhaps go light. Secondly I think the ML at -160 gave this game away. You have a pitcher for KC who is over a 10 era who is a piece of shit, the team is on an 8 game losing streak and the ML is only -160 to -165. If you look at tomorrows game the line is at -260. Yes I know you have Halladay pitching tomorrow, but todays game should have been at least -200. Again we all need to use some common sense and some good handicapping.Originally posted by danychaosComment -
PR went 1-0 +1.6
run went 1-1 +0.45
todays plays:
PR:
KC, CIN, BOS, SD, MIN, FLA
run:
TX, PIT
GLComment -
Pete what is the runs units ytd, its seems to be winning.Originally posted by peterpan19Comment -
run YTD: 13-16 +0.7 ... we had a really bad run for about 3 days in a row where we lost like 6 units...last 3 days we are up 3.75 units ... it doesnt produce too man plays and all plays are road dogs only...Comment -
yesterday PR went 0-5 -5.0 and run went 1-1 +0.55 units
todays plays are:
PR:ATL, TB, ARZ
run: PIT
GLComment -
Nice Day overall on BB 2-0 and 5-2 on PT. Lest start to kick some ass.Originally posted by peterpan19Comment -
Am I doing this right?
I had 3 BB 3-0 , Fastball overall looks like 7-0. PT looked like 5-3.
Should have bet all the FB, but didn't.
Oh well. . . .a nice break from the last few days, tho.
BComment -
bobby518
1 BB was way over -175...so it was a no play for us...Comment -
BB went 2-1...PT went 5-2 (if cou played both DET games)
PR went 1-2 and run went 0-1
todays plays:
PR:PIT, BAL, KC, WAS, TB, FLO, COL, HOU, DET, ARZ, SD
run:SEA, KC, NYY
GLComment -
MLB Streaks
Guys I received some emails yesterday about the OAK game. I have told you numerous times be careful of teams on over a 3 game winning or losing streak. Well OAK was on a 7 game winning streak. If you liked the game so much then your wager should have been limited at best. Lets try to remember this.Comment -
Can't Win 'Em All
HOWEVER, . . Oakland aside (yeah, ya had to heed that 7 game winning streak - it had to end sometime, and it was DUE!)
By my count, the day went:
BB 3-1
FB 7-3
PT 5-6
Not a bad showing for the FB software, btw!
BobbyComment -
PR went 4-6 -1.15 and run went 0-3 -3.0 units...so another bad day...
todays plays are:
PR:BAL, COL, CWS, MIN
run:KC, TOR, SFComment -
I guess the beauty of sportrends software is that everyone can handicap differently and come up with different results. What I do is not written in stone and if someone finds something better it would be nice if they share it with everyone.Originally posted by peterpan19Comment -
What does FB, PR and run mean?Comment -
what has better results for the PT system...30 or 99 day?Comment -
Not a big tool....the sportrends tool
Comment -
early plays today:
PR: COL, SF and CINComment -
PR went:
3-3 1.2 (YTD 52-72 -8.7)
run went:
0-1 -1 (YTD 16-22 -1.2)
todays plays:
PR: MIN, CLE, PIT, FLA, WAS, CWS, HOU, SD
run:STL, BOS, CWS
GLComment -
sportstrend
is sportstrends worth purchasing??
or is there a better one ??
thanks in advanceComment -
todays plays:
PR:NYY, BOS, DET, WAS, MIL, KC, MIN, TX, COl, SD, OAK, CLE
run: CWS, SEA, STL
GLComment -
FYI... a new twist on sportrends software. Using the last 14 days as a small sample data, I did the following. Stay with me while I explain this, might be a little confusing at first. I do the PT part of the software first (option #9, then option #7) and I look for games where one team is >= .500 while playing against another team that is <=.500, example, for yesterday's games the Yankees .765 playing against the Mets .412, so I write down Mets (I take the <= .500 team, usually the underdog). I write down all the games that fall under this criteria. I then go and run the "pick winners" option #1 off the main menu (I'm looking for all the Best Bets selections only). I'm looking for each game that I wrote down, again with my example Mets / Yankees, if the game is a Best Bet, which it was a best bet for the Yankees, NOT the mets. Then I play the METS (not the best bet selection) with the +1.5 run line, not the moneyline. For the past 14 days, using this method, it went 28-5. Keep in mind when you take the +1.5 runline the vig. is usually high, but since we are usually taking the underdog, the Vig. is lower then if we were taking the favorite. The five losing games the +1.5 runline was -.125, -.160, even, -.185, -.150. So instead of 5 losses, it will come out to be about 7.2 loses when you calculate the vig. So the 14 day total was 28-7.2 which comes out to be +20.8 plus units for 14 days. so I'm basically using the software opposite of what it predicts. I'm looking for teams =< .500 (which also have a less then 50% of winning the game on the PT side of the software) vs. a team that has a =>.500, yesterdays example, the PT software had the Yankees with a 85% chance of winning the game (Mets 15% of winning) and then I go AGAINST the best bet selection of the software, yesterday, the Yankess were the best bet selection.
If you decide to play the moneyline bet instead of the +1.5 run line the 14 day outcome for the same teams was 21-12, +9 units, probably a little higher due to the fact your betting on the underdog in the game and you should be getting + vig on your bets (I did not research the odds for all 33 games).
BTW, the Mets won both the moneyline and the +1.5 run line and the game in yesterdays matchup with the Yankees. That was the only selection from yesterdays games.
CAUTION !!!! Do not go bet your mortgage on the next selections (there are two for SUNDAY), I do not have an extra rooms for you and your family to live in ! LOL plus you know murphy's law... since I'm writing this up today, both selections will go 0-2 ! LOL
Just wanted to throw out an idea and give back to the some of the good cappers on this site. Been Following CK for a couple of years, Thanks CK for the insight and WINS
! Also want to give thanks to Formulawiz and peterpan19, you guys got me to buy the software and try different options with the software.
Hopefully, this way of viewing the stats continues to have success, if it doesn't then back to the drawing board I go... Good luck with everyone's Bets !!!!! Peace out !!!! 
Comment -
Great writeup. As I was saying the beauty of sportrends software is that you can experiment and then go back to backtest your ideas. Everyone using the software can come up with different results and its terrific when handicappers take the time to test their ideas and then share them with everyone on the forum.Originally posted by vjonesiiFYI... a new twist on sportrends software. Using the last 14 days as a small sample data, I did the following. Stay with me while I explain this, might be a little confusing at first. I do the PT part of the software first (option #9, then option #7) and I look for games where one team is >= .500 while playing against another team that is <=.500, example, for yesterday's games the Yankees .765 playing against the Mets .412, so I write down Mets (I take the <= .500 team, usually the underdog). I write down all the games that fall under this criteria. I then go and run the "pick winners" option #1 off the main menu (I'm looking for all the Best Bets selections only). I'm looking for each game that I wrote down, again with my example Mets / Yankees, if the game is a Best Bet, which it was a best bet for the Yankees, NOT the mets. Then I play the METS (not the best bet selection) with the +1.5 run line, not the moneyline. For the past 14 days, using this method, it went 28-5. Keep in mind when you take the +1.5 runline the vig. is usually high, but since we are usually taking the underdog, the Vig. is lower then if we were taking the favorite. The five losing games the +1.5 runline was -.125, -.160, even, -.185, -.150. So instead of 5 losses, it will come out to be about 7.2 loses when you calculate the vig. So the 14 day total was 28-7.2 which comes out to be +20.8 plus units for 14 days. so I'm basically using the software opposite of what it predicts. I'm looking for teams =< .500 (which also have a less then 50% of winning the game on the PT side of the software) vs. a team that has a =>.500, yesterdays example, the PT software had the Yankees with a 85% chance of winning the game (Mets 15% of winning) and then I go AGAINST the best bet selection of the software, yesterday, the Yankess were the best bet selection.
If you decide to play the moneyline bet instead of the +1.5 run line the 14 day outcome for the same teams was 21-12, +9 units, probably a little higher due to the fact your betting on the underdog in the game and you should be getting + vig on your bets (I did not research the odds for all 33 games).
BTW, the Mets won both the moneyline and the +1.5 run line and the game in yesterdays matchup with the Yankees. That was the only selection from yesterdays games.
CAUTION !!!! Do not go bet your mortgage on the next selections (there are two for SUNDAY), I do not have an extra rooms for you and your family to live in ! LOL plus you know murphy's law... since I'm writing this up today, both selections will go 0-2 ! LOL
Just wanted to throw out an idea and give back to the some of the good cappers on this site. Been Following CK for a couple of years, Thanks CK for the insight and WINS! Also want to give thanks to Formulawiz and peterpan19, you guys got me to buy the software and try different options with the software. Hopefully, this way of viewing the stats continues to have success, if it doesn't then back to the drawing board I go... Good luck with everyone's Bets !!!!! Peace out !!!!
Lets hope the BB turns around here soon. As I mentioned previuosly be careful with inter-league playsComment -
Some additional stats... from my post above... I also looked at what the outcome for all the games I selected in the PT (option 9, option 7) part of the software was and that either meet the "Best Bet" rule or just as a "play" in the option 1 section of the main menu. Remember both the "best bet" and the "Play game", the software would choose the opposite team that we wanted to bet on. the 14 day total outcome was 39-11 in our favor. A plus 28 units, probably higher with the + vig.Comment -
love the system
well i bought it love it been reading and trying everything i can love it
trying dif ways toget the best out of it it is sweet
Iwas hoping there is some people out there that can help me out to save me some time want to do some studies to help us all out does anyone have a record of the last 30 days best bets??? and a list of all the pl for the last 30 days that they got out of the system this will save me alot of time and will share the resaults with all please if so can you send them as best bets then pl thanks a millComment -
As I posted several times, sportrends BB picks should be your starting point in handicapping a game. Ex: CHC yesterday, my type of handicapping would not allow me to play the CHC because they are on a 4 game losing streak. But after examing the entire picture I realized MIN as a road team was going for the sweep and Baker for MIN sucks. As I also posted many times I love to play against road teams going for a sweep and guess what, both BOS and MIN lost and FLA won and 2-1 is not that bad.Originally posted by firstimer
Now lets look at the Home team sweeps, 5-0. I have posted this several times as well. Go with home teams going for the sweep if other factors agree. Therfore we have to look at the entire picture when handicapping and not just play games blindly because a software package tells us to do so. The sportrends package is a terrific tool but like anything else should be used with common sense handicapping. One other Ex: BOS the PT system said to take them. Here are a few reasons why I would not. Road team going for a sweep and secondly BOS is on a 5 game winning streak. How many times have I posted watch out for teams that are on 4 or more game winning or losing streaks because they can turn quickly.
One more EX: Both the BB and PT system took TB over WAS. I know the line was way over -200, but guess what, I went with TB. Why you ask, because WAS could not beat a good high school team. Again you have to look at the situation and not pass games due to strict rules.
2 other games I would like to mention were the NYM vs the NYY. Now I know there were no system plays here but I took NYM in both games as tremendous dogs. I was pissed losing the first game when that asshole dropped the ball but then came back in the second game and made a nice profit overall. My handicapping showed that the NYM are a pretty good team with a good bullpen vs the NYY with a tired bullpen.Comment -
formulawiz
a BB is always a PT play too....Comment -
PR went 4-6 -1.9 yesterday...
run went 1-1 +0.2
todays plays are:
PR: LAA
GLComment -
not sure i'm using this right
can someone tell me the exact order to do it in thanksComment -
What order are you talking aboutOriginally posted by firstimerComment
