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For those who played this system last year, I'm all up for hearing what worked and what didn't work. There was a lot of discussion leading up to opening day...Many of the filters suggested over the past several weeks, was mentioned to improve on the areas where the risk could be avoided while increasing the reward.
I personally have several different sportsbooks that I work from, and I went into each of them before I posted any early line.
If everyone agrees that The SBR early line was the one that we should go with is the best, that is great by me. I simply want to see us get on a win streak with our ultimate choices.
I do admire and respect everyones input and opinion here.
After going through many past posts, I'm still leaning with playing both the Fav and second Fav. at which point I would be playing the Mets and Colorado.
Best of Luck to all who are still watching and contributing to this system and this thread.Comment -
Thanks for the insight IWinMyBets. You saved me some reading. I played this last year with alot of success. There was some discussion in here last year about opening lines, but most of that occurred toward the end of the year when the lines were screwed up. I would tread lightly for a week or two as the opening lines should become pretty consistent by then. I definitely would not play in September for the obvious reasons - Skewed lines, lack of effort, call ups, etc.
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Iwin - I'm playing the top two favorites, and so far so good. I'm waiting until the chase goes to a C bet, then jumping in. Through one week I've gotten to play once in each of the chases, both winning on the D bet. After next week I'm going to start at the B bets, just figured now I should tread lightly.
So far the Chase 1 (the highest opening ML) has won 3 series and Chase 2 has won 3 and is currently going to its B bet due to the Mets loss. I am determining the picks based on opening lines just because thats what all the back testing went off of.
When there has been a tie I break the tie by team record (which right now doesn't hold too much value) and how stable the line is after opening. I figure if a team opens at -175 but is currently at -150 and another team opens at -175 and is at -170 the one at -170 would be the play, so long as they are both winning ball clubs.Comment -
I will be starting to play this system at some point during this week. I will keep my picks posted in my thread below, along with the 2 other systems I play.
Good luck allComment -
Still looking for some help or feedback here. Anybody?
Guys, what are your thoughts on this angle? We know a team on the road is guaranteed more at bats than a team playing at home, which makes the probability to score more runs higher. In addition to looking at the highest ML home or away, what if we just looked for the highest ML Road team and played that on either the ML/-1/-1.5 line. Sometimes the largest ML favorite of the day will be + odds, which creates a great RL number. So far this is 3-1 on the year (3 A bet wins, 1 A bet loss, B pending today with Philly). Is it possible for somebody to back test this for the last couple years?Comment -
Great AllenC,
I am going with the -1RL on all plays due the amount of Juice on these Favorite plays. That's why I had a few pushes during this past week of testing. I'm on a "D" bet with my fav's and an "A" bet with my second Fav.
And I am going very very easy this first week.
It's relatively easy to see that Philly will be my 'D" bet, and I'm leaning toward St. Louis for my second favorite 'A" play.
I'm also following "Reverends" plays on the Home/Away Sweep system, so I should be loaded up with action for Monday 4/12.
Thanks for your input. Best of luck to all.Comment -
I ran the #'s from opening day 2009 through August 31st 2009. Couple of things to note: 1) If there was a tie between 2 teams with the highest opening odds, I used the team that had the most favorable RL odds & 2) if 2 teams had the same opening odds and RL odds, but had different results, I used the team that LOST (figuring that I would have picked the wrong team, plus it gives us the worst case scenario).
Here are the results using a -1 RL:
Gm 1: 31-0
Gm 2: 19-0
Gm 3: 7-0
Gm 4: 6-0
Gm 5: 1-0
Gm 6: 1-0
Total: 65-0
Overall record: 65-61-19
Here are the results using the -1.5 RL:
Gm 1: 27-0
Gm 2: 19-0
Gm 3: 9-0
Gm 4: 4-0
Gm 5: 5-0
Gm 6: 1-1
Total: 65-1
Overall record: 65-80-0
So, as you can see using the -1.5 RL would have had 1 series loss (from May 17 through May 24 there were 8 losses in a row; however during this time there were 3 scratches using the -1 RL, which allowed for the -1 RL series win).
Remember this is only 1 year of data, so take that for what it's worth. I don't think that it is worth it to play this given that you will need a much bigger bankroll because you will go deeper into the series and accordingly you will not have as many series wins as you get playing the overall favorite -1 RL.
PCComment -
Favorite Accuscore Home Team Chase
Gents,
For those that are interested, I have been following the highest Accuscore home ground favourites for the last few days as proposed by (I think it was) TheBestThereIs.
TheBestThereIs said that for the last 2 years it had not gone to a 6 game chase - well it has this year.
Tracking from 5th April, you would have had 2 straight wins (Diamonbacks and Brewers) then there has been a 6 game chase as below
7th April - Chicago White Sox (Decimal odds = 2.43 on the -1.5 runline) - Lost
8th April - Texas Rangers (Decimal Odds = 2.40 on the -1.5 runline) - Lost
9th April - Baltimore Orioles (Decimal Odds = 2.35 on the -1.5 runline) - Lost
10th April - Arizona Diamondbacks (Decimal Odds = 1.87 on the -1.5 runline) - Lost
11th April - Detroit Tigers (Decimal Odds = 2.10 on the -1.5 runline) - Lost
12th April - St Louis Cardinals (Decimal Odds = 1.910 on the -1.5 runline) - Won
So on the 6th wager I had 32.7 units on the line to win one unit. Using 1% of my bank roll for the initial 'To win' amount, the 6th wager was 44.2% of the remaining bankroll after the initial 2 wins and the subsequent 5 losses.
Cripes I wouldn't want that to happen too often in a year.
CheersComment -
TheBestThereIs... Are you still in this forum? You said that you were going to post your back-testing for the last 2 years for using the highest home ground favourite as decided by Accuscore for the pick for the day..
Any chance that you can post it?
Cheers
JasonComment -
I got the Giants as the play Tuesday, and for those interested the Dodgers as the 2nd, both are A bets. I'm waiting until either reaches a C bet for one more week, then I'm going to begin entering at B bets.Comment -
So far, the biggest favourite of the day is doing well IMO. I have it at...
On the ML, 7-0 as chase, longest going to a C game.
On the -1RL, 5-0-2 as chase, longest going to a C game.
On the -1.5RL, 5-0 as chase, longest going to a D game.
I'm interested to know if anyone has some stats on how a -2RL, or -2.5RL would have done in the past. Also interested in how the highest road favourite of the day has done on the -1.5RL.Comment -
FAV2 Dodgers Win. Could have gone with -3.5RL
FAV1 Go Giants .
BOL to AllComment -
This is the Sportsbook.com line. Will cross check with SBR Book.
Early Line for Wednesday.
Philly -240 FAV1
St. Louis -210 FAV2
Yankees -210 at home vs. Angels. I feel the St. Louis matchup is the better play for a FAV2.Comment -
Philly is the biggest favorite todayComment -
I have the -1.5 as 4-0 on the chase, but that's a very minor accounting difference. I did not include the Sunday night opener to the season when there was only one game on the schedule; technically, there can't be a "biggest" favorite when there's only one game. Regardless, it's smooth sailing thus far.Comment -
Highest 2 opening lines I have from SBRodds is the Phillies @ -230 and the Rockies @ -210, with the Cards @ -188 & the Yanks @ -180... now the Cards are -220, Philly -210, the Yanks -201 & Rockies -179...
So just to continue what I have done so far, which is take the opening line (I've used SBRodds every time thus far), and since the opening line was clear cut Phils & Rockies (and also since the Chase 2 is on an A bet) I'm going to ride them. I think personally the Cardinals & Phillies are clearly the top two plays, but I'm going to stick to what I've been doing.Comment -
Philly covered for us no matter if we went with -1RL or -1.5RL. Personally, I've been playing the -1RL from the beginning. Since I chose St. Louis as my FAV2 play, I ended up with a push on that 2-1 win. This puts me at 6 wins and 0 losses during my "testing" period. I've been risking $5 on the A bet...$15 on the B bet...and $35 on the C bet. All at -1RL.
It looks like it might be time to boost up the UNIT size a bit to take advantage of what seems to be a plausible system to me.
Best of Luck to All.Comment -
Well, Phillies win and both Rockies and Cards lose/push (only won by one)... So, according to SBR I got Phillies, again, Chase 1 @ -1.5 (-120) and Chase 2 Cardinals -1.5 (-105), Chase 1 being an A bet and Chase 2 being a B bet if -1.5 RL or A bet if playing -1 RL.Comment -
I've been testing the top two with the first being -1.5RL and the second being a -1RL @ $10/units... so far the most you would have had invested would have been when Chase 1 went to a D and Chase 2 went to a C, and you would have had about $235 tied up. Would have hate to see what that would have looked like if both lost and went to an E and D bet.Comment -
Lasts nights philly game was crazy. let's hope for another 7-run margin this afternoon.Comment -
looking good guys.
i am going to start this soon inside my thread.
let do this!Comment -
Great job gentlemen!! This thing has turned into a monster.... Let's get it going!!!Comment -
Hmmm, like I needed another reason to play...Comment -
For Friday, St. Louis (-250) gets the slight nod over Philadelphia (-240). Good luck to all.
Only three more days on the sidelines for those of us who aren't playing the first and last two weeks of the season.Comment -
Both Chase 1 & Chase 2 on B bets, her we go Cards & PhillyComment -
OK, whoever backed STL get a C bet on the Yankees todayComment
