System Integrity?

[JW Cash]

Anyone thinking a making this system a 3 game chase instead of 6...

I mean with the high percentage wins in the A bet & B bet category.....


....just sayin....

[Jhart2838]

Last year was wildly successful and I'm playing it the same way.

The only small change I make is that I skip days when there are four games or fewer on the schedule. I just don't believe that small sampling is enough to put a team in the role of biggest favorite compared to a day when there are 15 games available.

Did you notice a majority of those days being losers?

[Bluehorseshoe]

Anyone thinking a making this system a 3 game chase instead of 6... I mean with the high percentage wins in the A bet & B bet category..... ....just sayin....

I was thinking about playing the -1 1/2...

Game 1....1 unit
Game 2....1 unit
Game 3....2 units
Game 4....3 units
Game 5....3 units
Game 6....6 units

Concede some back so you don't have to go deep on the 6th game.

[allenc85]

Anybody got any info on the second highest ML played on the RL? I was just thinking, since you'll occasionally have two teams with the same high opening ML, if they have similar winning rates, why not run a 2 chases, one following the highest, one following the 2nd highest. I'd imagine if you waited until after 1 or 2 losses playing each as it's own chase, the returns would be pretty substantial, and with the added chase (2nd highest ML) you'd roughly double your bets over the season. Anybody looked into that?

[reverend]

Anybody got any info on the second highest ML played on the RL? I was just thinking, since you'll occasionally have two teams with the same high opening ML, if they have similar winning rates, why not run a 2 chases, one following the highest, one following the 2nd highest. I'd imagine if you waited until after 1 or 2 losses playing each as it's own chase, the returns would be pretty substantial, and with the added chase (2nd highest ML) you'd roughly double your bets over the season. Anybody looked into that?

this is an interesting idea...

[stingyrivers]

good idea... in the back testing I did, I loosely paid attention to the second highest RL, and notced it did just as well as the top RL, and often times when the highest RL didnt cover the second highest did... I actually like this idea a lot


Im willing to do some backtesting on this... anybody else want to split up the years with me? it usually takes me about an hour or a little more to backtest a full season... we can backtest this for about 4 seasons, anybody want to take a year, and I will start on one?

[reverend]

stingy...lets look into this a little more. if we find that the 2nd highest fav is producing a similar win %, then we basically can double our # of plays and expect similar results multiplied by 2.

i like the thought of it...

[stingyrivers]

especially because it will allow us to wait for a loss on each chase before the play starts and between the two chases still have about 80 plays on the year...

rev, do you want to split up the past four years and backtest, I take two, you take two?

[reverend]

especially because it will allow us to wait for a loss on each chase before the play starts and between the two chases still have about 80 plays on the year...

rev, do you want to split up the past four years and backtest, I take two, you take two?

sounds good. i may not be able to get to this until tomorrow around lunch, but i can take 2 years. if you have not started, i will take 2008 and 2009.

sounds good?

[stingyrivers]

sounds good bud, I will start 2006, 2007 tonight

[Jhart2838]

what are the web addresses or software yall use? Ill take 2005.

[reverend]

what are the web addresses or software yall use? Ill take 2005.

you can back test it here: http://www.sbrforum.com/Scores/MLB+Odds/20090401.aspx

just click back to the correct year and click through each day to find the 2 largest favs.

a little time consuming, but worth it.

[Jhart2838]

I was thinking about playing the -1 1/2...

Game 1....1 unit
Game 2....1 unit
Game 3....2 units
Game 4....3 units
Game 5....3 units
Game 6....6 units

Concede some back so you don't have to go deep on the 6th game.

Are you betting a unit or are you betting 'To win 'a unit...just woondering.. I sorta like the style here...id put more emphasis on the first two, which can decapatate a BR quickly, unfort.


something like Bet 2 units on the first three, and five on the fourth, etc..

[Jhart2838]

The sbr doesnt go back to 2005, shame.

[reverend]

The sbr doesnt go back to 2005, shame.

here is another site. it does go back to 2005. have at it!

http://www.scoresandodds.com/index.html?sort=rot

[IWinMyBets]

Absolutely Awesome information and research and questions by all. I am impressed.

[Jhart2838]

here is another site. it does go back to 2005. have at it!

http://www.scoresandodds.com/index.html?sort=rot

lol well, when i get to that calender, which i try to get to april 2005, a script prompt comes up and says they only have up to 8/27/06...and covers.com'sinfo only goes to 06...hmmm. anyone know what bettor bob used?

[floridagolfer]

Did you notice a majority of those days being losers?

I don't recall what the record on these days might have been.

[reverend]

sounds good bud, I will start 2006, 2007 tonight

Stingy...are you backtesting leaving out the first 2 and last 2 weeks of the season?

that is at least the parameters i have been using...

[do5000]

I don't recall what the record on these days might have been.

5dimes and pinnacle offer RL -1.
i think they also offer FAV -1, -1.5, -2, -2.5 and Dog -1.5.

are you going with the -1 or -1.5 system?

i was thinking of splitting it and taking -1 if it gets me +ev, if not stay with -1.5

[allenc85]

Stingy...are you backtesting leaving out the first 2 and last 2 weeks of the season?

that is at least the parameters i have been using...

while you are at it, do you mind including the first two weeks? I'm thinking there could be some value on waiting for two losses and then chasing. Will only get you two, maybe 3 plays, but in any case if you don't mind will you include those first two weeks. Thanks.

Also, are yall back testing for a -1.5 run line? Can you test for -1.5 and ML on the losses. I'm thinking if this comes back positive, I'd like to play one chase as -1.5 and the other as a -1 (or in my case, having to play -1.5 w/ a ML hedge). Thanks for all the work, hope this leads to something good

[jolmscheid]

I am really liking the idea of betting the two biggest favs. of the day -1 and waiting for a loss or two before starting the chase....

[floridagolfer]

5dimes and pinnacle offer RL -1.
i think they also offer FAV -1, -1.5, -2, -2.5 and Dog -1.5.

are you going with the -1 or -1.5 system?

i was thinking of splitting it and taking -1 if it gets me +ev, if not stay with -1.5

I'm going with -1.5; I'd have to open a new account somewhere else in order to play -1. I would guess the average price we got playing -1.5 last year was somewhere in the neighborhood of -120, which I don't think is unreasonable.

[Bluehorseshoe]

I'm going with -1.5; I'd have to open a new account somewhere else in order to play -1. I would guess the average price we got playing -1.5 last year was somewhere in the neighborhood of -120, which I don't think is unreasonable.

You don't have to open up a new account. A -1 run line calculator was posted in this thread by bsebal7.

Post #1620

[thebestthereis]

i would look at it like this. #1 my bankroll for this is going to be gone (obviously i hope not) and it's ok if it does. #2 i will always assume each series is going 6 games and i will bet according. #3 i am all in on each series, meaning if my bankroll is $1000 i am assuming each game will be -150 (high end) and all i will make sure is that i have enough for the 6th game. as it grows (i hope) my bet size will continue to grow as well so it will be % of my sushi roll. if i get far enough without a loss i will need more than one book as my limit will be cut if i get to a 5th 6th game to cover the chase; may end up having to 10K to cover my unit i would think. any comments on this good bad ugly?

also any math guys out there that can tell me what % of my sushi roll i should be betting assuming -150 odds for each bet and having enough to bet the 6th game? thanks

[IWinMyBets]

Anyone thinking a making this system a 3 game chase instead of 6...

I mean with the high percentage wins in the A bet & B bet category.....


....just sayin....

I am looking at that possibility very closely. Limits Risk, and you should be able to recover a lost series very quickly.

[IWinMyBets]

i would look at it like this. #1 my bankroll for this is going to be gone (obviously i hope not) and it's ok if it does. #2 i will always assume each series is going 6 games and i will bet according. #3 i am all in on each series, meaning if my bankroll is $1000 i am assuming each game will be -150 (high end) and all i will make sure is that i have enough for the 6th game. as it grows (i hope) my bet size will continue to grow as well so it will be % of my sushi roll. if i get far enough without a loss i will need more than one book as my limit will be cut if i get to a 5th 6th game to cover the chase; may end up having to 10K to cover my unit i would think. any comments on this good bad ugly?

also any math guys out there that can tell me what % of my sushi roll i should be betting assuming -150 odds for each bet and having enough to bet the 6th game? thanks

I'm not huge math guy myself, but I've learned if I want to play another day, I never risk more than 1/4 of my betting bankroll on any complete series. So if you start with $1K, then your full 6 game series wager should not exceed $250.
Everyone seems to have a slightly different approach as to how they plan to bet each game after a loss, but you can see that your "A" bets and "B" bets tend to win a large percentage of the time.
So out of the $250 you'll want to play with numbers that allow you a profit of some kind... at each of the losses where another wager becomes necessary.

Hope this helps.

[bsebal7]

Just a few more days gentlemen.....

[reverend]

I am looking at that possibility very closely. Limits Risk, and you should be able to recover a lost series very quickly.

this is not profitable over the last 3 years of data. i will try and get you the numbers, but i know for a fact that it was around breakeven. i have looked at this system every way possible and the 2 most profitable ways to play it are 4 game chase on the -1RL or the -1.5RL. Both yielded about the same profit. the -1.5 just had lots more c and d bets, but had less money on the table due to the lower juice.

[reverend]

I may be back at square 1, but trying to filter the data from the last 3 years to be undefeated...

I have come back to playing this on the -1.5 RL. But the small adjustment I made was to wait for a loss and then chase it for 6 games.

Results:
2007: 48-0
2008: 42-0
2009: 49-0

Assuming you are getting around even money, losing a 6 game chase would cost a $100 bettor $6300. But that has not happened over the past 3 years.

Now a $100 bettor would make more money betting this as a 4 game chase on the -1 RL, but you would have had a loss in 2009 and 2008 and 2 losses in 2007.

I feel like I keep spinning myself in circles with this system, but knowing a system is undefeated over the past 3 years, i feel like you could be a little more aggressive in your money management

[reverend]

and as briefly mentioned before, after quickly looking over playing the 2nd highest favorite in the same system, you come out with similar results. so you could play this as 2 systems and grab between 90-100 units over the season.

just hope you dont have to game 6's going at once! hahaha

[floridagolfer]

i would look at it like this. #1 my bankroll for this is going to be gone (obviously i hope not) and it's ok if it does. #2 i will always assume each series is going 6 games and i will bet according. #3 i am all in on each series, meaning if my bankroll is $1000 i am assuming each game will be -150 (high end) and all i will make sure is that i have enough for the 6th game. as it grows (i hope) my bet size will continue to grow as well so it will be % of my sushi roll. if i get far enough without a loss i will need more than one book as my limit will be cut if i get to a 5th 6th game to cover the chase; may end up having to 10K to cover my unit i would think. any comments on this good bad ugly?

also any math guys out there that can tell me what % of my sushi roll i should be betting assuming -150 odds for each bet and having enough to bet the 6th game? thanks

-150 odds is a higher average than what the -1.5 plan usually costs, but for the simple case of using that as an example, it would get pricey just after A, B and C losses if your anticipated per-series profit is $10. You'd lose $15 trying to win $10 in the first game, lose $37.50 trying to win $25 in the second, then lose $94 trying to win $62.50 in the third.

It's somewhat comforting, however, to know that last year, this was extended beyond four games very infrequently.

[jolmscheid]

Hey Rev...so are you going to WAIT for 1 loss by the top favorite and the 2nd best favorite of the day and then chase it on the -1.5 RL or -1RL? That way sounds good...just want to know what you plan on doing to limit juice and still get good profits...thanks Rev...look forward to this.

[IWinMyBets]

Just as a quick followup to my last post. It is appearant that going with the 4 to 6 game "Chase" still looks better than trying to go with the 3. Although it appears that you may save by going with 3, you would sustain several more losses and indeed would end up with a losing season on the 3 game chase. Just start out with a slightly lower beginning unit size and plan for the 4 to 6 game chase.

[jolmscheid]

Yeah...I am going to wait for a loss, and then plan for a 4-6 game chase...