System Integrity?

[peterpan19]

Jive
Well if you loose another series soon after, well you are betting more and more every time, maybe you dont want to win back everything but maybe only 50 or less perc...
Also a backtesting would be very nice to see how it actually would go... I also very much like the idea of the alternate -1 RL... Hell I think you can make a few mods and still win something...

JB
Well NHL... I have no data, but it always feels like early in the season its not a good idea, most of the time it seems like the PL of the underdog covers, later during the season it changes more to the PL of the fav...

[floridagolfer]

Has anyone tried this with NHL?

Yes to the above question.

To cap MLB at three games, it would take some deep pockets and what is probably a sizable starting bankroll. In 2009, you would have had to roll over losses in 10 different series — including FOUR times in one month (September). I'd need a couple of hours to try to figure out how much all this would increase the per-series amount you started the season with.

[PatrickBateman]

So what were the results for NHL?

[spankmythighs]

It maybe a good idea to end this by mid to late Aug. Especially if the favorites are running away with it and about to clinch a spot in the playoffs.

[spankmythighs]

I noticed the same prob with my "system" where a couple of favorites got swept at home.

[fastpitch_45]

Is it better to wait a couple weeks to start this or right away on opening day?

[reverend]

I like the look of this system.

My question is: How would your results be different if you bet the -1 RL instead of the -1.5 RL?

You would be paying more juice in the long run, but you would also be avoiding alot of situations where the favorite wins the game by 1. So you would push, instead of losing the game outright. (And anybody can play a -1 RL. All you do is make 2 bets, 1 with the ML and the other with the -1.5 RL. You have to do some basic math to figure out how much goes onto each bet, but not difficult)

Thoughts?

[reverend]

Does anyone have the numbers/scores for all the games last year? That would be great in figuring out how many times you lost the game, but would have pushed with the -1 RL.

Thanks!

[brko]

i started reading this thread today and got to 3rd page, and there occurred one question for which i'm frightened to think how many times it appears along this 46 pages - hedging/dutching.

People, there are hedge calculators, but all i have seen calculate with decimal odds. so if you're comfortable or (like me) European used to decimal odds here is one decent:

Hedging Calculator

http://www.oddschecker.com/betting-tools/hedging-calculator.html

Dutching Calculator

http://www.oddschecker.com/betting-tools/dutching-calculator.html

i hope that will help you

[Blargh]

This is what I played. Aug 18, 22, 24 and Sept 19 and 21, the top fav was the road team, and thus listed first. The record for what I played was 46-35 and had average odds of -115. There can be slight difference due to times when 2 or more teams opened as top favs. If I remember correctly, I took the one with the highest RL odds. I also went outside the system a bit and chased a DH since the line for 2nd game went higher than the first after the Cubs had lost.

July 9 Padres 3 Giants 9 -260 -114
July 10 Royals 0 Red Sox 1 -230 -110
July 11 Pirates 7 Phillies 8 -230 -107
July 12 Royals 0 Red Sox 6 -300 -133
July 16 Mariners 1 Indians 4 -206 102
July 17 Dbacks 1 Cards 6 -230 100
July 18 Astros 2 Dodgers 5 -174 104
July 19 Mets 1 Braves 7 -250 -110
July 20 Orioles 1 Yankees 2 -191 103
July 21 Reds 3 Dodgers 12 -182 114
July 22 Orioles 4 Yankees 6 -275 -132
July 23 A's 3 Yankees 6 -250 -120
July 24 A's 2 Yankees 8 -201 105
July 25 A's 6 Yankees 4 -270 -133
July 26 Giants 2 Rockies 4 -191 104
July 27 A's 3 Red Sox 8 -322 -144
July 28 A's 9 Red Sox 8 -215 -105
July 29 Nationals 5 Brewers 7 -201 104
July 30 A's 5 Red Sox 8 -337 -141
July 31 Royals 2 Rays 8 -201 103
Aug 1 Royals 1 Rays 7 -275 -141
Aug 2 Royals 4 Rays 1 -270 -120
Aug 3 Orioles 5 Tigers 6 -272 -126
Aug 4 Orioles 8 Tigers 2 -206 100
Aug 5 Orioles 2 Tigers 4 -201 101
Aug 6 Rockies 1 Phillies 3 -165 131
Aug 7 Reds 10 Giants 5 -300 -138
Aug 8 Marlins 6 Phillies 4 -200 -103
Aug 9 Orioles 3 Blue Jays 7 -260 -110
Aug 10 Mets 4 Dbacks 7 -158 135
Aug 11 Blue Jays 5 Yankees 7 -238 -122
Aug 12 Reds 2 Cards 5 -330 -149
Aug 13 Pirates 1 Rockies 10 -250 -122
Aug 14 Pirates 2 Cubs 17 -200 -121
Aug 15 Royals 3 Tigers 10 -230 -118
Aug 16 Pirates PP Cubs PP -280 -131
Aug 17 Royals 7 Wsox 8 -222 -105
Aug 18 Giants 8 Reds 5 -225 -135
Aug 19 Mariners 3 Tigers 1 -300 -132
Aug 20 Orioles 8 Rays 7 -277 -120
Aug 21 Marlins 5 Braves 3 -219 -101
Aug 22 Phillies 4 Mets 1 -214 -130
Aug 23 Orioles 5 WSox 4 -220 -114
Aug 24 Phillies 6 Mets 2 -270 -157
Aug 25 Wsox 3 Red Sox 6 -285 -137
Aug 26 Nationals 4 Cubs 9 -300 -137
Aug 27 Astros 4 Cards 3 -280 -129
Aug 28 Mets 2 Cubs 5 -245 -112
Aug 29 Mets 4 Cubs 11 -250 -111
Aug 30 Nationals 1 Cards 2 -340 -145
Aug 31 Dbacks 5 Dodgers 3 -172 123
Sept 1 Mets 3 Rockies 8 -201 105
Sept 2 Brewers 3 Cards 10 -265 -124
Sept 3 Mets 8 Rockies 3 -233 -115
Sept 4 Padres 2 Dodgers 0 -260 -117
Sept 5 Reds 3 Braves 1 -270 -120
Sept 6 Dbacks 5 Rockies 13 -215 -112
Sept 7 Reds 3 Rockies 4 -260 -125
Sept 8 Padres 4 Giants 3 -260 -107
Sept 9 Mariners 3 Angels 6 -210 104
Sept 10 Reds 1 Rockies 5 -208 -105
Sept 11 Orioles 10 Yankees 4 -285 -137
Sept 12 Orioles 7 Yankees 3 -300 -140
Sept 13 Orioles 3 Yankees 13 -332 -152
Sept 14 Jays 5 Tigers 6 -240 -112
Sept 15 Nationals 0 Phillies 5 -300 -117
Sept 16 Pirates 1 Dodgers 3 -270 -121
Sept 17 Nationals 2 Phillies 4 -300 -134
Sept 18 Royals 11 Wsox 0 -231 -111
Sept 19 Red Sox 11 Orioles 5 -201 -121
Sept 20 Astros 0 Brewers 6 -176 131
Sept 21 Red Sox 9 Royals 12 -157 103
Sept 22 Padres 10 Rockies 11 -225 103
Sept 23 Padres 6 Rockies 3 -202 105
Sept 24 Tigers 6 Indians 5 -210 -130
Sept 25 A's 3 Angels 0 -201 109
Sept 26 A's 15 Angels 10 -214 100
Sept 27 A's 4 Angels 7 -238 -114
Sept 28 Jays 11 Red Sox 5 -260 -112
Sept 29 Astros 4 Phillies 7 -310 -133
Sept 30 Pirates 4 Cubs 0 -238 -105
Sept 30 Pirates 8 Cubs 2 -250 -113
Oct 1 Nationals 2 Braves 1 -270 -117
Oct 2 Indians 2 Red Sox 6 -201 101

[Jiggy Fly]

Looking forward to trying this system this year.

[Joe Dogs]

It maybe a good idea to end this by mid to late Aug. Especially if the favorites are running away with it and about to clinch a spot in the playoffs.

The only 6 game chase lose was in September on Tampa Bay.

[scratbandit]

Very interesting indeed...

[reverend]

ready for some mlb

[talnted]

Will track this during the season. Interesting

[reverend]

I just went back through the entire 2009 season using the SBR historical odds page. I used their opening ML as my indicator and used a 6 game chase using the -1 RL as my win/loss indicator.

Here are my results:

Entire Season: 90-1
April: 11-0
May: 16-0
June: 13-0
July: 19-0
August: 17-0
September: 12-1
October:2-0

Skipping the first and last 2 weeks of the season: 82-0
April: 6-0
May: 16-0
June: 13-0
July: 19-0
August: 17-0
September: 11-0
October: NA

*As you can see the only loss came during a stretch from September 21-28. During that timeframe, you had 6 losses and 2 pushes in this order: LPLPLLLL. So you went 8 straight games without a win.

*I will go back through my data tomorrow and break this down even further.

[reverend]

Further breakdown of the above data:

With the system that skips the first and last 2 weeks of the season: 82-0

Series ended in:
Game 1: 46
Game 2: 22
Game 3: 10
Game 4: 3
Game 5: 0
Game 6: 1

[dyeguy]

This is one of those systems when I think you need to know when to quit and not push your luck. If I ever get up 75 or 80 units on a season I am cashing out or at least starting over with smaller units. Sounds like a great system though.

[bsebal7]

Gentlemen...... Private message me if you want the -1RL spreadsheet. I will be using that this year for all the plays.... I'm doing a 3 game -1RL chase.... with higher units this year versus the 6 game chase. I never realized all the attention this thread would get when I initially posted it... thanks for keeping it going... i hope we all can make some serious money this year!!!

[Stealinhome]

I am in

[fastpitch_45]

Me too

[fjordo]

What would the average ML, -1 RL, and -1.5 RL be on the highest favourite of the night? How often does the highest fav just straight up win?

I didn't have time to look through the entire thread, but here are my thoughts, correct me if I'm wrong.

It looks like the -1.5 RL pretty much always hits within a 6 game chase, and most of the time within the first 2 games.

It also looks like the -1 RL pretty much always hits within 3 game chases, if you carry over the pushes.

So could I assume than, that the highest favourite of the night, will win a game, if not each night, every other night, or for sure within 3 games?

How about doing:

3 game chase on ML for 0.5 units.
3 or 4 game chase on -1 RL for 1 unit. Push will carry over.
6 game chase on -1.5 RL for 1 unit.

Thoughts?

[fjordo]

here are the records.

2007: 95-0

2008: 16-0

combined (111-0) heading into tonight.

This was the first post in this thread. This is using the 6 game chase on the -1.5 RL. Does anyone know the final record for 2008, or 2009?

[do5000]

This was the first post in this thread. This is using the 6 game chase on the -1.5 RL. Does anyone know the final record for 2008, or 2009?

looks like one of those stats is incomplete. one year had 95 series and another only had 16?

[do5000]

Further breakdown of the above data:

With the system that skips the first and last 2 weeks of the season: 82-0

Series ended in:
Game 1: 46
Game 2: 22
Game 3: 10
Game 4: 3
Game 5: 0
Game 6: 1

it would be interesting to see if these percentages are the same every year. might not even be worth playing games 4,5,6.

[fjordo]

looks like one of those stats is incomplete. one year had 95 series and another only had 16?

I know, and thats why I'm trying to figure out what the entire season records are. Honestly, am interested in any chase lengths, any seasons, and any RL types.

ie. 2009, 4 game chases, -1 RL, record ??-??
2007, 6 game chases, -1.5 RL, record ??-??

[vd1000]

I am new to this forum dont have enough points to pm. BSEBAL7 would you please send me the spreadsheet

[nobull]

really itchy for bases... ... can it come sooner please! !! all systems goooooooooooooo

[scratbandit]

This system is incredible..

[do5000]

i'm going to try to go through the 2008 season and see if the results are the same.

[EXhoosier10]

baseball7, can you give it to me?

[superjeff24]

This system has some potential, but why go 95-0 then only 11-0 and then take a year hiatus in 2009? Were there poor results in 2009? (busto or a huge losing streak?)

I like the idea of maybe chasing 4 max, after that you start risking 16,32,64 units to recoup 1, seems crazy.

[allison13]

This system has some potential, but why go 95-0 then only 11-0 and then take a year hiatus in 2009? Were there poor results in 2009? (busto or a huge losing streak?)

I like the idea of maybe chasing 4 max, after that you start risking 16,32,64 units to recoup 1, seems crazy.

The system was 82-0 in 2009 without playing the first two or the last two weeks of the season.

There was a loss in the last two weeks but i dont think anybody on this thread was betting it in the last two weeks.

[killawookie]

i cant wait to try this either

[IWinMyBets]

Great Thread!
I Started at the beginning going thru several pages, and just had to skip to the end and work my way backtracking from there.
I've spent about 3 hours on the thread now, and I'm a "NUT" for systems myself.
I believe you must have a plan.
It seems that everyone wants to contribute their own little tid-bit on how to improve and I'm a little confused by now. Are there any 2 individuals using the same system here? Has anyone from last years tests determined if the morning line M/L favorite is to have a
(-1 runline) or a (-1 1/2 runline) bet placed.

After nearly a year of debate and suggestions, has there been a concensus as to the best tested method to use?

Gamblers like low risk...high reward. Right? And when we do lose, we want to be able to keep losses to a minimum, and we want to recover fast.

Looking over some of the past figures, I personally kinda like the 3 game chase @ -1 1/5 runline.

You lose 3 in a row, you cut your losses and move to the next betting series.

But I want to hear something from some of the successful from last year, about the absolute best method they have found.
After a year we have come to the conclusion the best way to utilize this system is to do this:

Your answer here.................................... ..........

Thanks

Frank