System Integrity?

threeg5 · 09-26-09, 12:46 PM

Originally posted by pcjayd

9-26-09 LAA -1.5//-115 risking 880 to win 765.

This is the last game of the chase Game( F)...!!! Lets see if this system really works

johncrud · 09-26-09, 12:57 PM

last game???? woooot

I gotta jump in then..

floridagolfer · 09-26-09, 10:16 PM

Originally posted by pcjayd

9-26-09 LAA -1.5//-115 risking 880 to win 765.

This is the last game of the chase Game( F)...!!! Lets see if this system really works

The outcome of tonight's game has no bearing on whether the system actually works. If you're saying the system has to be perfect in order to work, that's unrealistic. We're somewhere around 86-0 on the season; that's enough of an answer.

johncrud · 09-26-09, 10:30 PM

I believed that one loss will cost you 70 units.

16 units are still good.

shhhhh22 · 09-26-09, 10:32 PM

Angels choking hard late here. giving up a nice comfortable lead. WTF get it together boys!

pcjayd · 09-26-09, 11:15 PM

Wow Oakland A's Are a bunch of pests!!

johncrud · 09-26-09, 11:19 PM

the LAA is shit.. Tomorrow will be game #1 for me as I will chase for the next four. I hope it doesn't go into a 10 game losing streak.

mdemps9190 · 09-27-09, 12:00 AM

shit is retarded...Pretty devastating losses in this series.

johncrud · 09-27-09, 12:15 AM

sometimes winning 70+ game straight you feel like you are all happy and unstoppable.. but then bamm.. all that season of hard work is gone.

mdemps9190 · 09-27-09, 12:46 AM

unfortunately I didn't play this system till about 2 weeks ago, but luckily I've only suffered 2 of the 5 losses that happened this chase.

PacmanJr_00 · 09-27-09, 09:47 AM

LAckey hadn't given up a single run to the As all year..

paw · 09-27-09, 01:33 PM

You shouldnt be playing any system in regards to MLB in late Sept. Everyone knows that. After Sept 1st MLB is done for the season.

Lesson learned.

PAW

mdemps9190 · 09-27-09, 02:06 PM

So is anyone hopping on the angels?

Blargh · 09-27-09, 10:26 PM

Winner!
Game G!
Angels over A's

TGHMak · 09-29-09, 06:05 AM

Did anyone have any issues using this system with Bookmakers?

mdemps9190 · 09-29-09, 01:43 PM

why would they have issues? Bookmaker noticing your trend?

Blargh · 09-30-09, 01:29 AM

Originally posted by Jasonal_98

I've been following this thread for a couple of weeks now (fairly new to the site) and wondered if anyone has thought about taking the system a step further. Tracking it for the last few days, it seems that it could be profitable to take the "over" team prop for the heaviest favorite. These teams are expected to score a lot of runs, after all. I noticed that a few of the recent losses would have been wins under this system (such as Detroit last night. . .their number was 5 runs)? I'd like to hear input on this. It's too late to really test it this year, but I'm thinking it might be something to look at in April. Pairing it with the original system could be powerful.

Including a few games canceled due to pitching changes, the System since July 9th is 45-32. Using O/U as mentioned above would be 39-32-6. There was a 1 F, 1 E and 1 D chase on that time. 9 of the last 12 have gone over.

Blargh · 09-30-09, 07:13 PM

I doubled checked as to how I would have done using a Labouchere betting system instead of a Martingale.
Using July 9 to Sept 29th.
I was betting one unit on july 9th and increased to two units Sept 10 and I did chase 7 games instead of taking the 6 game loss earlier this week.
Martingale +58 units, 507.7 units bet, 11.4% return
Labouchere +31.4 units, 291.6 units bet, 10.7% return
Note; I had 4 numbers left on a line for the labouchere at the end of Sept 29th
If we pretend two more wins for each system just have the lachoure end off with a empty line for Labouchere
Mart +62 units, 511.4 units bet, 12.1% return
Lab +45.5 units, 306 units bet, 14.8% return

Of course the key in this comparision is the 7 game chase this past week. If we ended on Sept 20th, this is what it would look like
Mart +52 units, 213 units bet, 24.4% return
Lab +44 units, 242 units bet, 18.2% return.
Without the long chase the Martingale looks way better. But the hook to using the Labouchere is that supposedly You will always show more profit using it instead of a Martinglae if there is loss in that chase system that year, or so I have read.

If I had ended the chase at 6 games, this would have been the damage from that single chase last week
Mart -131.8 units.
Lab -25.3 units.

Ending Season after 6 game chase loss
Mart -80 units, 344.7 units bet, -23%
Lab -12.8 units, 299 units bet, -4.3%

In the end, I was suprised but the difference between ROI between the Mart and Lab systems. If you had been chasing 4 units with Lab your loss in the 6 gamer would have been 57.1 units. If chasing the same amount of units in Laboucher as in Martingale you would have to done the 6 game chase twice to surpass the unit loss in a 6 game martingale chase (Lab -139 in 12g, Mart 131.8 in 6g)

I have read people jump in on these chase threads and promote Labouchere before but they never ever put any figures behind it. The more I look at it the more Labouchere looks like the way to go. Sure if you have a season with no cahse going to an F or even a E or D bat, Martingale will signifucantly outperform Labouchere. But Labouchere will outperform martingale if you have any losses or long chases. I will definetly be looking more into Labouchere.

Was anyone actually using Labouchere for this chase? Are your results similiar to my backtesting?

Anyone who doesn't know what Labouchere is, here is the website that got me interested in it

http://platinumsportsinvesting.com/labourchere.aspx

floridagolfer · 10-05-09, 06:01 AM

Final results since April 17 (two weeks into the start of the season):

Overall series record: 90-1
74 series were won in the first or second game
18 times the favorite won the game but did not cover the 1.5

All in all, this turned out great.

pelos879 · 10-10-09, 11:09 AM

Is anyone using this for hockey?

SKiLLsSoLoN · 10-11-09, 12:56 AM

Originally posted by pelos879

Is anyone using this for hockey?

I did some back testing and it goes past 6 games.

Blargh · 10-11-09, 12:59 AM

You get much lower odds, sometimes even +200 but it has been subject to long losing streak over the past two years. One stretch last year it only won 3 in 18 going G-E-F in chase games. It had a 9 game chase in 07/08. It was good for 67 and 70 chase wins the past two years if you chased until a win. It's the long stretches of losses that scare me off this system. Granted a 9 game chase could cost less than a 6 game chase from the MLB system.

Slanina · 10-11-09, 04:19 AM

Interesting

MacAttack13 · 10-11-09, 09:24 AM

Not sure who sent the spreadsheet on the NHL to me but I have been playing the home and away trips (3 or 4 games) and I am VERY PLEASED!!

Away (3 in a row ) since October 1st are - "A bet" 9 - 3, "B bet" 2-1 , "C bet" has Minn @ ANA on Oct 14th

Home (3 in a row) since Oct 1st are -- "A bet" 6 - 5, "B bet" 5 - 0, No "C" bets

In some cases I had to bets the same game but using the +1.5 goals system for underdog I actually won two games were I won both bets! And using the chase system anyway I ended up winning all bet with the one pending bet on Minn!!

Morrison Officially is 1 -0 with LA last night winning on "A" bet.

pelos879 · 10-14-09, 12:46 PM

Originally posted by MacAttack13

Not sure who sent the Spreadsheet on the NHL to me but I have been playing the home and away trips (3 or 4 games) and I am VERY PLEASED!!

Away (3 in a row ) since October 1st are - "A bet" 9 - 3, "B bet" 2-1 , "C bet" has Minn @ ANA on Oct 14th

Home (3 in a row) since Oct 1st are -- "A bet" 6 - 5, "B bet" 5 - 0, No "C" bets

In some cases I had to bets the same game but using the +1.5 goals system for underdog I actually won two games were I won both bets! And using the chase system anyway I ended up winning all bet with the one pending bet on Minn!!

Morrison Officially is 1 -0 with LA last night winning on "A" bet.

How do you feel about Minn tonight? They are looking pretty weak.

jellobiafra · 10-20-09, 04:30 PM

So how did this thing end up working out?

Slanina · 10-23-09, 12:44 AM

Originally posted by jellobiafra

So how did this thing end up working out?

I quit doing it awhile ago, but I think there was one series loss(6games) that occured in september. Some stopped betting the system at that point because of teams being out of the chase and anything can happen with teams remaining in the hunt. For the people that absorbed the loss they still ended up money(assuming they were doing it from the beginning of the year).

SkivChef · 02-11-10, 01:10 PM

I can't wait for baseball!

allison13 · 02-16-10, 08:51 PM

I cant either

floridagolfer · 02-17-10, 08:23 AM

Originally posted by jellobiafra

So how did this thing end up working out?

Like a charm.

SkivChef · 02-18-10, 05:02 PM

floridagolfer, do u forsee the same success as last year. hom many yrs back is this backtested?

mdemps9190 · 02-18-10, 08:07 PM

I'm definitely going to be playing this year from the start...half units though

SkivChef · 02-19-10, 01:39 PM

I love Units!

SkivChef · 02-19-10, 03:16 PM

Whole units!

jakeandba · 02-20-10, 10:43 AM

since it is very early and i have a hang over, the highest fav team would rotate from day to day, so one day it could be SF and then the next day would be NYY etc...to play the highest fav and this should hit within 6 days/ or games since there is one play per day.

This is correct break down of the system correct?