System Integrity?

[floridagolfer]

For those who are jumping in early on the ML Fav system...I'm seeing Atlanta as the early favorite.
-180.

For Thursday, it looks like Tampa Bay is the play again for a Game C play. Rays opened at -200 according to the SBR numbers.

[BuffaloBettor]

For those who are jumping in early on the ML Fav system...I'm seeing Atlanta as the early favorite.
-180.

Yes I am on the Braves (-200) today.....

[do5000]

For Thursday, it looks like Tampa Bay is the play again for a Game C play. Rays opened at -200 according to the SBR numbers.

yup. i'm on the rays as well. pushed with TB yesterday.

[IWinMyBets]

4/8/2010 Sportsbook.com has Atlanta at -200 and Tampa Bay at -180 this morning. I have been watching both the number one favorite and the number two favorite each morning this week, and there is a real need to re-think possibly playing both each day. Backtesting appearantly showed that both came out with similar records when plugged into the system.

[do5000]

looks interesting. where do you get your stats?
im assuming all these numbers are closing.

re: accuscore
are these the same numbers that show up in the espn game preview each day?
if so, you can go through each one (they are in box on the right side of each article.) without an account.

[mdemps9190]

yeah would like more information on this accuscore system...Let me know.

[SpiderMonkey]

If anyone is interested, was going to back-test this for -2.5

[jolmscheid]

Yeah spider...that would be great...real good odds there

[mdemps9190]

definitely would be nice to know...does anybody have that -1RL spreadsheet btw? I saw it on here somewhere but can't find it now

[SantiagoJoe]

FYI. I researched the last 2 years on accuscore. Take the highest HOME win % each day and play the runline. It isn't always the highest odds and half the time you are getting +120, +130. Never lost 6 straight and I looked at every game til the last pitch of the season.

Thebestthereis

Do you have the results of this backtesting in excel or something similar so that I can have a look at them and see how the run of the wagers went?

Did you chase or just play each bet individually?

Based on what you saw and the odds, what % of bankroll would you recommend?

Cheers

[do5000]

Thebestthereis

Do you have the results of this backtesting in excel or something similar so that I can have a look at them and see how the run of the wagers went?

Did you chase or just play each bet individually?

Based on what you saw and the odds, what % of bankroll would you recommend?

Cheers

i'm also interested in more info on this. following accuscore TEX would be the play today over TOR

[Prime1]

-1 run line spreadsheet attached.

definitely would be nice to know...does anybody have that -1RL spreadsheet btw? I saw it on here somewhere but can't find it now

I saved this spreadsheet from another poster on this site. I apologize but I can't remember who to give the credit to.

Hope this helps.

[allenc85]

so are the rockies the play tomorrow?

[mminkovski]

Yes, COL Rockies vs SD Padres

[Blargh]

If anyone is interested, was going to back-test this for -2.5

I have done this for the portion of the season I did on this chase last year.
-2.5 RL on top Fav from July 9th to Oct 2nd went 38-45. Longest chase was 8 games. Would like to the odds though. Could be good to bet.

[floridagolfer]

Yes, COL Rockies vs SD Padres

Game D for those not skipping the first two weeks of the season.

[IWinMyBets]

Rockies 4/9

Game D for those not skipping the first two weeks of the season.

If you are playing -1RL we are on the "C" bet with the Rockies as we had two days of Pushes with Tampa Bay on Tuesday and Wednesday. And a 'B" bet loss on Thursday.
If you went with the -1.5 RL....we are on the 'D" bet for Friday.

[SpiderMonkey]

I have done this for the portion of the season I did on this chase last year.
-2.5 RL on top Fav from July 9th to Oct 2nd went 38-45. Longest chase was 8 games. Would like to the odds though. Could be good to bet.

Thanks for the stat - I haven't gotten a chance to run the data - its an interesting variation with avg. odds on -2.5 ~+220

[bigdog56]

Guys, what are your thoughts on this angle? We know a team on the road is guaranteed more at bats than a team playing at home, which makes the probability to score more runs higher. In addition to looking at the highest ML home or away, what if we just looked for the highest ML Road team and played that on either the ML/-1/-1.5 line. Sometimes the largest ML favorite of the day will be + odds, which creates a great RL number. So far this is 3-1 on the year (3 A bet wins, 1 A bet loss, B pending today with Philly). Is it possible for somebody to back test this for the last couple years?

[KennyM10]

Sounds interesting, Good luck.

[fjordo]

Guys, what are your thoughts on this angle? We know a team on the road is guaranteed more at bats than a team playing at home, which makes the probability to score more runs higher. In addition to looking at the highest ML home or away, what if we just looked for the highest ML Road team and played that on either the ML/-1/-1.5 line. Sometimes the largest ML favorite of the day will be + odds, which creates a great RL number. So far this is 3-1 on the year (3 A bet wins, 1 A bet loss, B pending today with Philly). Is it possible for somebody to back test this for the last couple years?

If I had time I would, hopefully somebody out there does. I like this idea alot.

[allenc85]

n/a

[allenc85]

Game D for those not skipping the first two weeks of the season.

Didn't you play this system all of last year? How did it do in the first two weeks of the season then? Thanks, lets go Rockies

[Bluehorseshoe]

Rockies make me nauseous today.

[Blargh]

Thanks for the stat - I haven't gotten a chance to run the data - its an interesting variation with avg. odds on -2.5 ~+220

I did some research and I believe you'd tend to see an average of around +150 to +160. For the Rockies today they were top favs at -172 and the -2.5RL was +187. Once you start seeing teams in the -200 to -250 range you'll start to see the +150. I wouldn't be surpised to see a few -2.5RL around +100 once teams hit the -300 and higher lines.

[floridagolfer]

No, I skipped the first and last two weeks of the year.

[JW Cash]

Rockies kick ass on Game D

I wait for a loss and then kick it in gear....

so this is a bet c Winner for me.....

...Thats what I'm talking about ....

[reverend]

nice work on the rockies!

i will be starting this system in my thread below early next week!

lets do it in 2010 boys!

[floridagolfer]

Saturday's play, for those who are participating at this point of the season, is Arizona, a huge favorite at home vs. the Pirates.

[Daniel]

Pinnacle doesn't allow RL bets for the Arizona game today.. at least not yet.. interesting..

[do5000]

looks like -1 RL will be too expensive for ARI today, im going to stick with -1.5

[IWinMyBets]

Ouch! This system seems to be testing my patience early on. Glad I'm in the Test Mode. As a huge favorite, they got their butts kicked. Will be looking for our Sunday morning line favorite.

[mncosoldier]

Oh man sad with HOU

[IWinMyBets]

Early line showing NY Mets at -240 @ home vs. Washington.

[toomer]

look this system is simple read the rules on the first page. I have been playing since the very beging of the season with bos/ny -1.5 run line up three units right now.Going for 4 since it was the rockies that opened.The rest can have fun with their extra filters that they want to add.