System Integrity?

[do5000]

Tampa Bay is a heavy favorite today. It's a D bet for some people

TB it is

[maxidodge]

Hi guys!
Does somebody knows what percentage of MLB games are won by a 1 run margin?
I have the feeling that it is a low percentage. If it is the case, we should bet the -1.5 run line, taking the best payout.

Thanks to share your toughts (and numbers) on that!

[maxidodge]

Found on google answers that 30% of all Mlb games are won by 1 run...

[maxidodge]

Ok if 30% is right, then the -1 RL shows a better EV.

Cause when your team is gonna win :

with-1.5RL 30 x -1 unit) + (70 x 1.15 unit) = +Ev 50.5

with-1RL: (30 x 0 unit(push)) + ( 70 x 0.83) = EV 58.1

this is based on a -1.5RL @ 2.15 and a -1RL @ 1.83

[maxidodge]

By the way, if you bet -1 and your tem wins by 1 run, is it a push or you lose your bet?

[SkivChef]

push

[maxidodge]

Thanks

[reverend]

go rays

[allenc85]

I've been away for the weekend, and didn't get yesterdays plays, but from what I gathered it was Red Sox in CHase 1 for a C bet, they lost -1.5 RL and pushed -1 RL. I'm playing chase 1 on -1.5 RL so I'm on a D bet with the Rays.

For Chase 2, I'm playing on the -1RL unless the juice on -1.5 RL is negative then I just play it -1.5 RL. So yesterday seemed like there were a few tied, I chose the Dodgers which won by 1 run, but since the juice on the -1.5 RL was negative I played it -1.5 so I lost. Today, I'm playing the Rockies, who were tied with the Astros as the play but I went with the Rockies due to a better record and higher Total, and am playing it as a C bet on -1 RL. BOL, and if anybody knows if the Chase 2 bet yesterday would have been somebody besides the Dodgers let me know, I appreciate it...

BOL

[allenc85]

Winner winner, chicken dinner. Both Chases win today, and looking like Brewers are Chase 1 and Mariners and Angels tied for Chase 2. I'm going with the Mariners since they have a better record... BOL

[do5000]

MIL tonight!

[maxidodge]

thanks reverend

I like your approach to the fav system...that was what I was looking for!

[mminkovski]

COL vs ARI next play

[allenc85]

I got the Brewers opening at -240 and the Rockies opening at -200... so the Brewers will be the A bet in Chase 1, and the Rockies will be a B bet in Chase 2 for me (Mariners lost, but they were tied with the Angels on the opening ML)

[floridagolfer]

Yep, I also have Milwaukee for Tuesday's play, and seeing as how it's playing Pittsburgh, which is trying to outdo itself for serving up really bad baseball, this doesn't look like a fair fight. My math might be off, but I think the Pirates are on a run in which they've been outscored, 72-12.

[do5000]

Yep, I also have Milwaukee for Tuesday's play, and seeing as how it's playing Pittsburgh, which is trying to outdo itself for serving up really bad baseball, this doesn't look like a fair fight. My math might be off, but I think the Pirates are on a run in which they've been outscored, 72-12.

you werent far off...

[maxidodge]

Is it that you don't bet twice on the same team? Cause the huge fav today is still mil

[allenc85]

Is it that you don't bet twice on the same team? Cause the huge fav today is still mil

Yes, you can bet on the same team twice. The criteria is simply the highest opening ML and play them on the either -1.5RL or -1RL. I filter it to only play teams that either have a over 500 record or better winning record than their opponent, but other than that the teams don't factor into it when choosing who to play. Hope this helps

[maxidodge]

thanks

[mminkovski]

NYY at Baltimore today
RL is 1.84 at pinnacle now

[SkivChef]

isn't the cubs? i dont want it to be, but isnt it?

[allenc85]

I got Cubs opening at -210 and Yanks -200... Chase 1 B bet, Chase 2 A bet

[reverend]

well done guys. keep it up.

[floridagolfer]

I got Cubs opening at -210 and Yanks -200... Chase 1 B bet, Chase 2 A bet

That's exactly what I have as well for Wednesday. Cubs are the RL play for the first time this year.

[Blargh]

I hate it when Cubs are top Favs. Can rarely get a Cubs RL at home until the morning of the game, sometimes later.

[do5000]

i dont have the lad/nym game posted yet, but its unlikely they open higher than -210. so cubs it is.

[allenc85]

I hate it when Cubs are top Favs. Can rarely get a Cubs RL at home until the morning of the game, sometimes later.

I'm fairly new to this, and definitely haven't been betting Cubs on the RL much, so I've never noticed that... why is it?

[do5000]

I'm fairly new to this, and definitely haven't been betting Cubs on the RL much, so I've never noticed that... why is it?

the winds in chicago.
totals are sometimes posted late as well.

[allenc85]

thanks do,

Looks like Rays and Dodgers are tied as highest opening ML, I'm going with the Rays (better record) as Chase 1 C bet and the Dodgers for Chase 2 A bet... BOL

[SkivChef]

allen, whats the current record?

[floridagolfer]

For whatever it's worth, SBR odds has Tampa Bay opening at -240 and LA at -219.

[Bluehorseshoe]

For whatever it's worth, SBR odds has Tampa Bay opening at -240 and LA at -219.

It all depends on which book you have your opening line set to at SBR. It could be Pinnacle, Cris, etc.

[do5000]

Looks like TB. still -$ on the run line

[allenc85]

For whatever it's worth, SBR odds has Tampa Bay opening at -240 and LA at -219.

I have BetJamaica as my opening book, I think they post a little after Pinnacle (which is the normal first book if you haven't customized the order) so I'm guessing BJ factors in the first bit of adjustments in the line...

The Rays are 16-5 hosting the Royals who are 8-13... the Dodgers are 8-13 hosting the Pirates who are 9-12. You can find all this on the SBRodds page by clicking on the teams.

BTW, I think both teams win handidly... BOL

[mminkovski]

Rays covered easily, Dodgers are struggling.