-
Comment -
Well I bet both sides of that game....figure one team wins by 2 we are still up + units with a chase to go on the loser....
As far as the Angels go I've decided that I am done with them for the rest of the year on the runline...Not worth it IMO....If they lose here the units will never be made up for the rest of the year for me (it would be the third 4-leg chase loss)....Overrated bunch of losers I am done with.Comment -
I hear ya, CBH...
The Angels have cost us all a lot of money this year...
In other news, the RL 2.0 picks are looking pretty solid so far(fingers crossed)Comment -
Sam, you are just starting your "runline 2" right ? Like you haven't been playing it and not keeping track ? It's basically brand new ?Comment -
i forgot to get you to clarify...will the RL 2.0 plays be chases as well? i assumed so just double checkingComment -
Very glad I decided to ditch the Angels for the year....
Nice start to your runline plays Sam
Comment -
I decided to finish out the mets play as a marlins fade and took Philly RL tonight. Closed out all those mets plays. Hope you guys hit them tomorrow playing against Zimmerman in Washington. Will be a massive +RL being +190 dogs.Comment -
6/4/13
TDK Record: 198-6, -93.91
TDK RL 1.0 Record: 198-17, +217.04u
TDK RL 2.0 Record: 3-0, +4.3u
Thread Record: 110-11, +73.07u
6/3/13 RL 1.0 RECAP
LAA -1.5 8u LOSS -15u
Cin -1.5 2u WINNER +2.3u
CWS -1.5 2u LOSS
Sea -1.5 2u WINNER +3.08u
NYY -1.5 1u WINNER +1.75u
6/3/13 RL 2.0 RECAP
1. StL -1.5 1u WINNER +1.5u
2. Oak -1.5 1u WINNER +1.6u
3. Phi -1.5 1u WINNER +1.2u
Comment -
6/4/13
RL 1.0 Plays
NYM -1.5 8u
CWS -1.5 4u
NYM -1.5 2u
NYM -1.5 2u
Bal -1.5 1u
KC -1.5 1u
CWS -1.5 1u
Thoughts: I'm heavily considering taking those 12 units we're supposed to put on the Mets and put them on the Nationals instead. Sure, the Mets swept the Yankees last week...but then they got swept by the Marlins. As a fan of the Mets, I just don't think I have it in me to put down 12 units on them today. Obviously this is not the way this system should be played, but I did opt out of the Angels game last night and that saved me 8 units...Since the toll on the Mets so far has been 6 units, I might actually try tacking on those units to a 4-game chase of the Nationals. Haven't decided what to do yet, honestly. I'm going to go work on RL 2.0 and be back in a bit.Comment -
Game 1s added, RL 1.0 card is final...
will have the 2.0 card sometime this afternoonComment -
Very nice work Samrock, would you know which teams have the highest percentage of hitting the run line?Comment -
You can select any filters that you want on the right side of the page; the link above I assume takes into account the +1.5 and -1.5 runlines.Comment -
6/4/13
RL 2.0 Plays
#4: Bal -1.5 1u
#5: Was -1.5 1u
#6: Oak -1.5 1u
#7: Det -1.5 1u
Thoughts: Houston has to come down to Earth at some point- they're still a terrible team, and I think the high-scoring O's will put them in their place sometime over the next 3 games. The Mets are just downright terrible, and I expect the Nats to cover easily, with their best chance tonight with Zimmerman on the mound. I'm doubling down on Oakland- they are the hottest team in the MLB right now and after they finish up with Milwaukee they'll head to Chicago, where they should beat down on the anemic White Sox. Detroit was a tough call, I'm pulling the trigger on this because the Rays are such a mediocre away team, and the Tigers have one of the highest run differentials in the league. That, and if heaven forbid this goes to a Game 4, the Tigers will have Verlander on the mound against the Indians.Comment -
Thanks bro.. Can't believe Pitt is number one.Comment -
As always, spreadsheet for this system can be found here:
Comment -
Just a quick thought about the RL system(s) from here on out...
Instead of blindly following, feel free to do a little research when you see new series posted...look ahead to who the team is playing, possible pitching matchups...see if you can figure out why a 4-game chase on that team at this point in time.
Look at today- we have Baltimore, KC, and CWS
CWS has 2 games left against Sea and then hosts the Athletics. They're 2nd to last in the league in Runs Scored. I'm going to take the 3 unit hit and not even begin today's series with them.
KC will have 3 games against the Twins(who are hot) and 1 game against Houston. KC is 18-30 at home vs the Twins since 2008 but they've already swept Min at home earlier this season, all 3 games by 2 or more runs...now THERE'S a thinker.
Baltimore is in Houston for 3 games. ENOUGH SAID. I'm on it.Comment -
Dang sam, you're providing too much info for me on these teams.....I was just going to system it but now you got me doubting the mets.......Comment -
It's worked so far...there's a reason these series are being picked by the systems that TDK is following...I'm just trying to gain insight into why each series is being picked...
But as Miami and Houston has shown us, there are plenty of surprises in baseball, and when those surprises happen, they cost people a lot of money...
Honestly I just wanted to start doing a little more research just so that I feel a little more educated before actually putting my money down...it may or may not save me money, but at least I will be more content with any losses going forward because I made an educated decision to risk my money.Comment -
well I got called off to work for like 5 hours and missed placing the mets bet....I just got back now...placed all the rest....
I do think I like your strategy here Sam....Go ahead with the chase system but sometimes you have to black list a team either for the season or even part of a series.....
Let's get these tonight
EDIT: I missed you post about not playing the white sox..Comment -
6/5/13
TDK Record: update pending
TDK RL 1.0 Record: 199-18, +202.95u
TDK RL 2.0 Record: 5-0, +6.71u
Thread Record: 111-12, +58.98u
6/4/13 RL 1.0 RECAP
NYM -1.5 8u LOSS -15u
CWS -1.5 4u LOSS
NYM -1.5 2u LOSS
NYM -1.5 2u LOSS
Bal -1.5 1u WINNER +.91u
KC -1.5 1u LOSS
CWS -1.5 1u LOSS
6/4/13 RL 2.0 RECAP
#4: Bal -1.5 1u WINNER +.91u
#5: Was -1.5 1u LOSS
#6: Oak -1.5 1u LOSS
#7: Det -1.5 1u WINNER +1.5uComment -
New to this MLB betting forum, been on NHL all year and did respectable +1700 and +400 for CUP so far, but need to roll it over to BB. I'll follow and try and catch up, forgive me if I ask questions that appear obvious to ya'll,
early thoughts were just fading MIAMI and Houston, how many series have either one of them won all year???
I know AStros have been winning, even more reason I think, theyre not good for any extended period, but I want to learn this system....so I watch
Comment -
Miami- 2 series wonNew to this MLB betting forum, been on NHL all year and did respectable +1700 and +400 for CUP so far, but need to roll it over to BB. I'll follow and try and catch up, forgive me if I ask questions that appear obvious to ya'll,
early thoughts were just fading MIAMI and Houston, how many series have either one of them won all year???
I know AStros have been winning, even more reason I think, theyre not good for any extended period, but I want to learn this system....so I watch
Houston- 6 series won
I know that Miami and Houston seem like auto-fades, but for what its worth, the Mets and Brewers each only have 1 more win than the Astros...
I don't know if a team's ability to win series is really indicative of whether they can win/lose by 2...
In my opinion, run differential is the single best indicator of a team's consistency in being able to cover the RL...that being said:
Top 5 Run Differential:
1. Cardinals(+89)
2. Tigers(+75)
3. Red Sox(+72)
4. Reds(+70)
5. Braves(+59)
Bottom 5 Run Differential:
1. Astros(-91)
2. Marlins(-83)
3. Brewers(-53)
4. Mets(-50)
5. Blue Jays(-41)
Certainly when a team from the top 5 is playing a team from the bottom 5 I would strongly consider playing that as part of a chase, but it's only one of many factors to take into consideration.Comment -
6/5/13
RL 1.0 Plays
CWS -1.5 8u
NYM -1.5 4u
NYM -1.5 4u
KC -1.5 2u
CWS -1.5 2u
StL -1.5 1u
Oak -1.5 1u
Tex -1.5 1u
RL 2.0 Plays
Was -1.5 2u
Oak -1.5 2u
Thoughts: Even though CWS is due, I just don't think today is their day. The only play I am playing from RL 1.0 is the KC play. I've already discussed my feelings on the Mets. As for the new series...I'm ok with all of them. StL is always a good pick, even though they head into Cincy next. Oakland matches up well with CWS after they finish with Mil. Tex will have 2 with Boston then 2 in Toronto.
Spreadsheet for this system can be found here: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/...tMGcxSnc#gid=3Comment -
Sam, just curious what % of your BR are you playing in RL2 ?Comment -
I have no reason not to have confidence in my picks...I'm doing the 1-2-4-8 strategy with 1 unit = 1% of my roll.
To address the possibility of TDK discontinuing his picks...
Hopefully he continues to post, but in the event that he doesn't, I leave it all up to you how you want me to proceed- I can be very conservative in providing plays or very aggressive. We can experiment with any filters that you want. I'm open to suggestions from the general public.
Seeing as the RL 2.0 system is fully experimental, I would love to hear your suggestions. There are no permanent filters in place right now- I can tell you that I take a look at run differential, pitching matchups, RPI, and home/away record to help me make my decision as to whether to start a series or not. Again, this is largely experimental and I'm open and eager to hear what you guys think would make for a good filter(s).Comment -
Game 1s have been addedComment -
do you think you can get TDK's filters for his plays that we've been using for this system?Comment -
I'm not sure...that would be up to him.
What I will say is that there are at least 7 different chase systems that I check on a daily basis(I don't bet on any of them) and I will start to monitor closely for common denominators(teams that have series on multiple systems) for possible chases for the RL 2.0 system. Hopefully we can turn 2.0 into something as profitable as TDK's system.Comment -
yeah true. there's heaps of chase systems we can look at to use if he isn't up for telling us the filtersComment -
Wooooo my gamble on the white sox might payoff on the -1.5.
Lol I may have got excited too soon.
Wow that's all I have to say.Comment -
Unbelievable Yaz. No runs for 13 innings, then 10 in the 14th. I feel even more sorry for anyone that took the under in this game. Funny game.Comment -
Yea had the under in the game also lol
Woooo lets try this againComment -
What an insane game...see if they can hold the lead this time.
Of course, the mets r kicking ass tonite too.Comment -
Wow...
CWS Game 4 win = 13u profit
CWS Game 2 win = 4u profit
Assuming the Mets hold on, they'll bring in 10u of profit between the 2 Game 2's. That's 27u between the Mets and White Sox today...holy cow.Comment
