Samrock's 2013 TDK 2.0 RL Chase

[samrock67]

Hey samrock, so you're playing Houston AND Seattle both -1.5? So as long as it's not a 1 run game you get a small profit?

I personally haven't decided whether I am going to play on Houston...I'm leaning no

[illisdre]

I personally haven't decided whether I am going to play on Houston...I'm leaning no

if this was a game to apply much thought to... I'd say stay away.

but its a system play and not much extra thought and analysis needed here -
Seattle is a decent low scoring team, which rarely score alot of runs but can pull off wins and beat better opponents
Houston.. they can barely get on the scoreboard and they always let in runs

that said for some reason i took Houston -1.5 just for the hell of it. I skipped seattle

If i was playing for more .. SEA -1.5 might be a better pick.

[Yazworm91]

Oh snap boys, tdk says there are lots of plays for tomorrow. Lets hope for a strong week. Especially with an 8u play tomorrow on Colorado. Would have been awesome if Arizona would have won by 2 had them @+285

[samrock67]

6/11/13
TDK Record: 225-7. -149.29u
TDK RL 1.0 Record: 217-19, +244.62u
TDK RL 2.0 Record: 15-2, -7.81u
1.0 Record since tracking began: 128-13, +100.65u

6/10/13 RECAP

RL 1.0 Plays
Hou -1.5 2u LOSS
TB -1.5 1u LOSS
Tor -1.5 1u LOSS
Tor -1.5 1u LOSS
Sea -1.5 1u LOSS

RL 2.0 Plays
Bal -1.5 1u LOSS
Ari -1.5 1u LOSS
Cin -1.5 1u WINNER +1.5u
Atl -1.5 1u LOSS

[samrock67]

6/11/13

RL 1.0 Plays
Col -1.5 8u
Hou -1.5 4u
TB -1.5 2u
Tor -1.5 2u
Tor -1.5 2u
Sea -1.5 2u
CWS -1.5 1u
Det -1.5 1u
LAD -1.5 1u
Mil -1.5 1u
Stl -1.5 1u
Atl -1.5 1u

RL 2.0 Plays
Bal -1.5 2u
Ari -1.5 2u
Atl -1.5 2u

Spreadsheet can be found here: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/...tMGcxSnc#gid=0

[kmc28]

didn't someone say something about a colorado 8u play?

[samrock67]

didn't someone say something about a colorado 8u play?

added it as you were typing this

[samrock67]

6/12/13
TDK Record: 229-7. -145.29u
TDK RL 1.0 Record: 224-19, +260.87u
TDK RL 2.0 Record: 15-2, -7.81u
1.0 Record since tracking began: 135-13, +116.9u


6/11/13 RECAP

RL 1.0 Plays
Col -1.5 8u WINNER +3.32u
Hou -1.5 4u LOSS
TB -1.5 2u WINNER +3.58u
Tor -1.5 2u WINNER +2.3u
Tor -1.5 2u WINNER +2.3u
Sea -1.5 2u WINNER +1.8u
CWS -1.5 1u LOSS
Det -1.5 1u LOSS
LAD -1.5 1u WINNER +1.7u
Mil -1.5 1u LOSS
Stl -1.5 1u WINNER +1.25u
Atl -1.5 1u LOSS

RL 2.0 Plays
Bal -1.5 2u LOSS
Ari -1.5 2u LOSS
Atl -1.5 2u LOSS

[samrock67]

6/12/13

RL 1.0 Plays
Hou -1.5 8u
CWS -1.5 2u
Det -1.5 2u
Mil -1.5 2u
Atl -1.5 2u
Bal -1.5 1u
Atl -1.5 1u

RL 2.0 Plays
Bal -1.5 4u
Ari -1.5 4u
Atl -1.5 4u

Spreadsheet can be found here: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/...tMGcxSnc#gid=3

[KierenRaj]

Hey Samrock, didn't Seattle clear the run line yesterday? Or am I missing something?

[samrock67]

Hey Samrock, didn't Seattle clear the run line yesterday? Or am I missing something?

You're right, I misread the scoreboard. Will update soon. Thanks.

[samrock67]

Just a reminder that Bal, Det, and Atl all have early games today

[samrock67]

Gonna shutdown 2.0 plays after we finish up tomorrow...clearly I'm just not good at picking the right teams...

TDK is continuing to post his plays anyway, so that will keep us in business

[samrock67]

Go figure, the Braves get swept by the Padres...

clearly the way to beat the books is by NOT picking teams that should cover once in a 4-game span.

[illisdre]

Go figure, the Braves get swept by the Padres...

clearly the way to beat the books is by NOT picking teams that should cover once in a 4-game span.

i think baseball has that unpredictability where a crap team can destroy a good team on a fairly occasional basis.
But lets get this straight... Houston is not really capable of doing so. They clearly are a team that will consistently score few runs.
So even when the odds are high, the likelyhood that they can win -1.5 is just soo low.
Thats why chasing with a -1.5 for Houston... is a not so good idea.

Lets hope they prove me wrong.

So today was a all game loss? besides Miluakee.
I even had an all loss today with Stiflers system today.. although yesterday was a clean sweep.
Owell. it happens.

Sam did you lower your wager amount like you mentioned previously?
I did. I'm not sweating the D bets. although the A bets don't bring much $

[illisdre]

I am really eating my words ...
damm

congrats on the win.

[Yazworm91]

Lol I stopped that Houston bet at game 1. Anybody on that D bet a -1.5 and know what the line was on it?

[illisdre]

Lol I stopped that Houston bet at game 1. Anybody on that D bet a -1.5 and know what the line was on it?

i had detroit at -2 at 2.72
It was actually a good calculation on my part because I bet less, thinking if they win,, its likely gonna be by alot..
didnt happen but...

check www.oddsportal.com for current and past lines.

[Yazworm91]

i had detroit at -2 at 2.72
It was actually a good calculation on my part because I bet less, thinking if they win,, its likely gonna be by alot..
didnt happen but...

check www.oddsportal.com for current and past lines.

Thanks for the link. Looks like Arizona coming through in late innings. Nice c bet if they hold it.

[bigtymer56]

Thanks for the link. Looks like Arizona coming through in late innings. Nice c bet if they hold it.

Looks like Bell is doing his best to make sure that doesnt happen,

[illisdre]

hats off to you samrock.

[samrock67]

6/13/13
TDK Record: 231-7. -143.29u
TDK RL 1.0 Record: 225-19, +271.77u
TDK RL 2.0 Record: 16-2, -3.81u
1.0 Record since tracking began: 137-13, +127.8u

6/12/13 RECAP

RL 1.0 Plays
Hou -1.5 8u WINNER +9u
CWS -1.5 2u POSTPONED
Det -1.5 2u LOSS
Mil -1.5 2u WINNER +1.9u
Atl -1.5 2u LOSS
Bal -1.5 1u LOSS
Atl -1.5 1u LOSS

RL 2.0 Plays
Bal -1.5 4u LOSS
Ari -1.5 4u WINNER +4u
Atl -1.5 4u LOSS

[samrock67]

Lol, just when I think I'm good at picking out Game 4's not to chase, the Astros cover on a game 4 by scoring 6 in the top of the 9th. Go figure.

Maybe I need to have more faith myself...

Anyways, for those of you who don't want to check in here every day(not that this thread gets cluttered or anything), I made a blog:

mlbchasing.blogspot.com

Nothing fancy, but for those people who just want the plays and recaps, that's what I'm going to post on there.

[samrock67]

6/13/13

RL 1.0 Plays
Bal -1.5 2u
Stl -1.5 1u
Stl -1.5 1u

RL 2.0 Plays
Bal -1.5 8u

More plays might be added later, these are all early games

Spreadsheet can be found here: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/...tMGcxSnc#gid=3

Blog: mlbchasing.blogspot.com

[samrock67]

6/13/13 UPDATED CARD

RL 1.0 Plays
Bal -1.5 2u
Stl -1.5 1u
Stl -1.5 1u
Bos -1.5 1u
Phi -1.5 1u
TB -1.5 1u
Tex -1.5 1u
Tex -1.5 1u
Tex -1.5 1u

RL 2.0 Plays
Bal -1.5 8u

Spreadsheet can be found here: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/...tMGcxSnc#gid=3

Blog: mlbchasing.blogspot.com

[ColdBeerHere]

Sam is that updated card the final card for the day ?

[samrock67]

Sam is that updated card the final card for the day ?

yes sir!

[ColdBeerHere]

yes sir!

[Yazworm91]

Atl is a huge game tomorrow got quite a few plays out on them, 3 chase games and 4 RL games. So they will probably get blown out lmao. I'm still amazed about the stros RL. 35 innings they gave us no hope but in the 36th they give us a 9 unit profit.

[samrock67]

6/14/13
TDK Record: pending update
TDK RL 1.0 Record: 225-19, +271.77u
1.0 Record since tracking began: 137-13, +127.8u

6/13/13 RECAP

RL 1.0 Plays
Bal -1.5 2u LOSS
Stl -1.5 1u LOSS
Stl -1.5 1u LOSS
Bos -1.5 1u LOSS
Phi -1.5 1u LOSS
TB -1.5 1u LOSS
Tex -1.5 1u LOSS
Tex -1.5 1u LOSS
Tex -1.5 1u LOSS

RL 2.0 Plays
Bal -1.5 8u LOSS -15u

I'm curious if we've ever had a night like last night...brutal. well, hopefully the Rangers wake up. Thankfully the Cards are beginning a series with the Marlins...

[samrock67]

6/14/13

RL 1.0 Plays
CWS -1.5 2u
Det -1.5 4u
Atl -1.5 4u
Bal -1.5 4u
Atl -1.5 2u
Stl -1.5 2u
Stl -1.5 2u
Bos -1.5 2u
Phi -1.5 2u
TB -1.5 2u
Tex -1.5 2u
Tex -1.5 2u
Tex -1.5 2u

RL 2.0 Plays
Atl -1.5 8u

Spreadsheet: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/...tMGcxSnc#gid=3
Blog: mlbchasing.blogspot.com

[bigtymer56]

6/14/13
TDK Record: pending update
TDK RL 1.0 Record: 225-19, +271.77u
1.0 Record since tracking began: 137-13, +127.8u

6/13/13 RECAP

RL 1.0 Plays
Bal -1.5 2u LOSS
Stl -1.5 1u LOSS
Stl -1.5 1u LOSS
Bos -1.5 1u LOSS
Phi -1.5 1u LOSS
TB -1.5 1u LOSS
Tex -1.5 1u LOSS
Tex -1.5 1u LOSS
Tex -1.5 1u LOSS

RL 2.0 Plays
Bal -1.5 8u LOSS -15u

I'm curious if we've ever had a night like last night...brutal. well, hopefully the Rangers wake up. Thankfully the Cards are beginning a series with the Marlins...

All I gotta say is thank god the Heat came thru and cancelled out all the losing I did on baseball yesterday. Been a weird week so far... over 40% of the games this week have been 1 run games(seems like this system has had bets on 90% of those games). Hopefully that turns around this weekend.

Not sure about continuing on Texas. Was hoping coming home and having Darvish pitching would break them out their slump, but of course it didnt.

[tr4sh]

Just a random observation. Obviously, there are ebbs and flows in gambling and considering the system is up +271 (in total), isnt this a really good time to kind of maybe put a brake on this system? I dont believe anything like this is sustainable and since we've had a great surge up, there's inevitably (not being a downer) going to be a slump down.

For tracking purpose, keeping the system going is obviousyl valuable but actually continue betting it might be fools gold (?). Just something I noticed and personally, I'm taking the winning from this system (up about 60 units all thanks to samrock) and calling it a season but thought I'd share in case it might help someone else.

[jonohull]

Just a random observation. Obviously, there are ebbs and flows in gambling and considering the system is up +271 (in total), isnt this a really good time to kind of maybe put a brake on this system? I dont believe anything like this is sustainable and since we've had a great surge up, there's inevitably (not being a downer) going to be a slump down.

For tracking purpose, keeping the system going is obviousyl valuable but actually continue betting it might be fools gold (?). Just something I noticed and personally, I'm taking the winning from this system (up about 60 units all thanks to samrock) and calling it a season but thought I'd share in case it might help someone else.

I think I've heard that before in this thread...

not gonna lie, if i were you guys i would jump off this bandwagon right now while its up 80 units. While its very possible this system will remain above 80 units the rest of the year, I think it would be wise to take the 80 units and spectate the rest of season.
Regardless of what you guys do, I wish you the best of luck!

[samrock67]

For those people who think this system is a fluke and won't continue to sustain it's profitability, I ran some numbers for you...

From 2003-2012, for the months of July, August, and September:

Home Favorites: 4266-2873 overall; cover the -1.5 RL 70.7%
Home Dogs: 1486-1955 overall; cover the -1.5 RL 62.6%
Road Favorites: 1954-1486 overall; cover the -1.5 RL 78.8%
Road Dogs: 2874-4267 overall; cover the -1.5 RL 74.2%

Now you tell me if we should continue or not...