Samrock's 2013 TDK 2.0 RL Chase

bonhammer · 05-31-13, 12:11 PM

samrock,
there are a bunch of mistakes on the current card.-
bonhammer

samrock67 · 05-31-13, 01:20 PM

Originally posted by bonhammer

samrock,
there are a bunch of mistakes on the current card.-
bonhammer

No, there aren't

Added Game 1s, card is now final but I will repost again:

5/31/13

Here is today's card
CWS -1.5 8u
CWS -1.5 4u
Mil -1.5 8u
Col -1.5 4u
NYY -1.5 4u
LAA -1.5 2u
Mil -1.5 2u
Det -1.5 2u
Ari -1.5 1u(2:20pm EST start)
Det -1.5 1u
Det -1.5 1u
LAA -1.5 1u
Sea -1.5 1u
Phi -1.5 1u
NYY -1.5 1u
NYY -1.5 1u
Cle -1.5 1u
NYM -1.5 1u
Tex -1.5 1u

Spreadsheet can be found here: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/...tMGcxSnc#gid=3

Wow, gentlemen. Biggest day of the season by a long-shot. Good luck to us all

ColdBeerHere · 05-31-13, 01:56 PM

Originally posted by samrock67

No, there aren't

Added Game 1s, card is now final but I will repost again:

5/31/13

Here is today's card
CWS -1.5 8u
CWS -1.5 4u
Mil -1.5 4u
Col -1.5 4u
NYY -1.5 4u
LAA -1.5 2u
Mil -1.5 2u
Det -1.5 2u
Ari -1.5 1u(2:20pm EST start)
Det -1.5 1u
Det -1.5 1u
LAA -1.5 1u
Sea -1.5 1u
Phi -1.5 1u
NYY -1.5 1u
NYY -1.5 1u
Cle -1.5 1u
NYM -1.5 1u
Tex -1.5 1u

Spreadsheet can be found here: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/...tMGcxSnc#gid=3

Wow, gentlemen. Biggest day of the season by a long-shot. Good luck to us all

GL Everyone !

samrock67 · 05-31-13, 02:02 PM

As usual, I won't be able to post the card for tomorrow, which hopefully will be devoid of as many plays as we have today...

Thanks to TDK in advance for probably posting tomorrow's card

Best of luck this weekend, gentlemen. We could turn some massive profit and surpass April's total with the amount of action we have going tonight

ColdBeerHere · 06-01-13, 02:50 AM

I thought it might be bad since no one posted in here after the games...But down only 4u for the night isn't all that bad....Would have been gigantic if the White Sox won....Oh well can't win em' all.

Nicksweger42 · 06-01-13, 01:21 PM

New to thread.. Tryn to catch on.. Anyone have today's plays?

dalogester · 06-01-13, 01:22 PM

nicks, trust me its not a good day to do the plays. Theres too many.

808bases · 06-01-13, 01:22 PM

Yeah I would help post but my spreadsheet is a little different caused I missed a game here or there. Another big day today though...GL everyone

Nicksweger42 · 06-01-13, 02:02 PM

I started yesterday with all the 1 unit plays... Jus curious if there are any new chases starting today?

ColdBeerHere · 06-01-13, 02:33 PM

Nuts I just gotdonewith some work stuff and saw there were no plays posted...anyone have a link to a spreadsheet with the plays ? The spreadsheet linksam posted is for yesterdays games

cooler54 · 06-01-13, 02:46 PM

just continue with whoever lost yesterday...and i believe st louis and atlanta are the new plays. (missed out on st louis myself)

ColdBeerHere · 06-01-13, 04:57 PM

Originally posted by cooler54

just continue with whoever lost yesterday...and i believe st louis and atlanta are the new plays. (missed out on st louis myself)

Oh damn, looks like I lost a bundle of units not betting the Detroit game

samrock67 · 06-01-13, 08:50 PM

6/1/13
TDK Record: 186-4, +38.29u
TDK RL Record: 183-13, +250.99u
Thread Record: 95-7, +116.56u

5/31/13 RECAP
CWS -1.5 8u LOSS -15u
CWS -1.5 4u LOSS
Mil -1.5 4u WINNER +6.2u
Col -1.5 4u LOSS
NYY -1.5 4u WINNER +4.4u
LAA -1.5 2u LOSS
Mil -1.5 2u WINNER +2.3u
Det -1.5 2u LOSS
Ari -1.5 1u LOSS
Det -1.5 1u LOSS
Det -1.5 1u LOSS
LAA -1.5 1u LOSS
Sea -1.5 1u WINNER +1.25u
Phi -1.5 1u LOSS
NYY -1.5 1u WINNER +1.85u
NYY -1.5 1u WINNER +1.85u
Cle -1.5 1u LOSS
NYM -1.5 1u LOSS
Tex -1.5 1u WINNER +.91u

samrock67 · 06-01-13, 09:10 PM

6/1/13

Here was today's card:
CWS -1.5 8u
Col -1.5 8u
LAA -1.5 4u
Det -1.5 4u
Ari -1.5 2u
Det-1.5 2u
Det -1.5 2u
LAA -1.5 2u
Phi -1.5 2u
Cle -1.5 2u
NYM -1.5 2u
Det -1.5 1u
Col -1.5 1u
Col -1.5 1u
Atl -1.5 1u

samrock67 · 06-01-13, 09:17 PM

All things considered, this weekend could have been a lot worse...

Even with the 30 unit hit tonight and 4 games still in play, we're still up 77 units since we started...I can't complain about that...

ColdBeerHere · 06-02-13, 03:30 AM

I only bet the LAA for 6u and Dbacks for 2u....didn't know the plays...

It seems like every time I have bet against the Astros this year they've won....And on the other hand it seems the Angels have cost me some money this season as well.....

samrock67 · 06-02-13, 08:01 AM

6/2/13
TDK Record: 194-5, pending update
TDK RL Record: 189-15, +231.51u
Thread Record: 101-9, +87.54u

6/1/13 RECAP
CWS -1.5 8u LOSS -15u
Col -1.5 8u LOSS -15u
LAA -1.5 4u LOSS
Det -1.5 4u WINNER +1.72u
Ari -1.5 2u WINNER +2.7u
Det-1.5 2u WINNER +1.36u
Det -1.5 2u WINNER +1.36u
LAA -1.5 2u LOSS
Phi -1.5 2u LOSS
Cle -1.5 2u WINNER +2.2u
NYM -1.5 2u LOSS
Det -1.5 1u WINNER +1.18u
Col -1.5 1u LOSS
Col -1.5 1u LOSS
Atl -1.5 1u LOSS

samrock67 · 06-02-13, 08:36 AM

6/2/13

Here is today's card
LAA -1.5 8u
LAA -1.5 4u
Phi -1.5 4u
NYM -1.5 4u
Col -1.5 2u
Col -1.5 2u
Atl -1.5 2u
Cin -1.5 1u
CWS -1.5 1u
NYM -1.5 1u
Phi -1.5 1u
Sea -1.5 1u
NYM -1.5 1u
Phi -1.5 1u

Spreadsheet for this system can be found here: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/...tMGcxSnc#gid=3

See you in The Cave

samrock67 · 06-02-13, 09:51 AM

Thoughts on today's card:

Well, you gotta hope that losing 2 straight games to the worst teams in the league is going to light a fire under both the Mets and Angels asses...the pitching matchups look favorable for all of our big games today(LAA, Phi, NYM). The RL for the LAA game is putrid right now, so I may throw some extra units on that as well as the Mets game(Harvey on the mound) in the hopes that we clear them off the board before going to Game 4.

Want2Win · 06-02-13, 10:18 AM

We have got to all remember that crazy things happen in all sports and teams that should lose end up winning. It just sucks when you got money on those teams.

Good work Sam!

kmc28 · 06-02-13, 10:22 AM

Rough week this week, but it's time to turn the ship back around and get things back on track! I have a good feeling about today.

samrock67 · 06-02-13, 11:58 AM

Game 1's have been added

I'll be in The Cave all day, chatting it up with whoever is around. I'm feeling a big day today...

kmc28 · 06-02-13, 12:03 PM

i'll be around most of the day as well

ColdBeerHere · 06-02-13, 03:55 PM

anyone else have colorado game canceled b/c of pitching change ? I use 5dimes and I don't think there is a place to bet Action when you bet the runline....Am I right here ?

Also looks like everything is going to boil down the Angels game....we are going to either be up big or down big....

GOOOOO ANGELS !

kcava · 06-02-13, 04:06 PM

Was it a pitching change as of last night? I submitted at 12:30 PM and got the matchup.

samrock67 · 06-02-13, 06:24 PM

Just a heads-up...

starting tomorrow I will be posting some of my own plays and will list them as "unofficial" plays...I have a couple of parameters and filters in mind, but largely this will be experimental...if you decide to tail, best of luck, but I will be keeping track in addition to the regular TDK-based plays. The rules will be the same, I will try to number the series in addition to listing them separately of the official plays.

samrock67 · 06-02-13, 06:43 PM

6/2/13
TDK Record: 194-5, pending update
TDK RL Record: 195-16, +224.91u
Thread Record: 107-10, +80.94u

6/2/13 RECAP
LAA -1.5 8u LOSS -15u
LAA -1.5 4u LOSS
Phi -1.5 4u WINNER +2u
NYM -1.5 4u LOSS
Col -1.5 2u WINNER +1.4u
Col -1.5 2u WINNER +1.4u
Atl -1.5 2u WINNER +1.1u
Cin -1.5 1u LOSS
CWS -1.5 1u LOSS
NYM -1.5 1u LOSS
Phi -1.5 1u WINNER +1.25u
Sea -1.5 1u LOSS
NYM -1.5 1u LOSS
Phi -1.5 1u WINNER +1.25u

ColdBeerHere · 06-02-13, 08:15 PM

I hate both the Angels and the Astros...both of these teams have cost me more bread than any other two teams in baseball this season...

samrock67 · 06-02-13, 08:38 PM

So, we're 2 months into the baseball season, and with 210 series in the bag, I think we've got a decent sample size to look back and reflect on...

There are only 2 active series that will still count towards the May total- the LAA and NYM Game 4s for tomorrow. Even if they both lose, it would only bring the total for May down to 52 units...now, I don't know about anyone else, but I can't see how anyone could complain about a 52 unit profit over the course of a month...

That being said, this system has been and always will be very, very volatile, with massive swings that can happen in the blink of an eye. This certainly is not for the faint of heart.

I think when we have a string of bad luck, it's easy for people to get emotional and be frustrated/angry/upset with the system or with specific teams, but I think you owe it to yourselves to look at the bigger picture...for anyone who jumped on this train when I started posting plays and has been following to the T, you should be up 80.94 units right now...I cannot possibly imagine how you could be upset at that. I'm not trying to single anyone out or point fingers, I really just want everyone to maintain perspective as we grind through this season. I'm sure anyone who is playing this system is probably also playing TDK's regular plays, and I understand that we've both been hit hard this weekend...but that is where this system emerges victorious- the bigger risk that we take by playing the RL has a bigger profit potential, and so far it has worked out really nicely.

I mean, every time I see that the running profit for the season for this system is over 200 units, I kick myself for not having played it this way from the beginning. I continue to kick myself because I've been playing this 1/2-1-2-4 instead of the normal 1-2-4-8, but after 2 months of incredible profit, do I let this weekend deter me? Nope...I'm going full 1-2-4-8 and I'm just going to be more selective with which TDK series I play.

As I mentioned before, I am also going to start posting plays of my own that will take a couple of factors into consideration...home/away, pitching matchups, run differential, RPI, just to name a few. Tail at your own risk

I have said from the beginning that I fully believe that this system will be profitable long-term, and I stand by that.

Here's to a 3rd month of superb profitability

Want2Win · 06-02-13, 08:46 PM

Agree!

jonohull · 06-02-13, 08:53 PM

Originally posted by samrock67

I'm going full 1-2-4-8 and I'm just going to be more selective with which TDK series I play.

I don't know if that's a good idea. Certainly you would play the series fading MIA and HOU, and those guys just screwed us big time. I think playing all of them picks up little 1 and 2 units that makes a big chunk of our profit.

samrock67 · 06-02-13, 08:57 PM

Originally posted by jonohull

I don't know if that's a good idea. Certainly you would play the series fading MIA and HOU, and those guys just screwed us big time. I think playing all of them picks up little 1 and 2 units that makes a big chunk of our profit.

I only meant that in reference to my own personal play, not as it affects the RL system- it wouldn't be fair of me to make any changes to that effect.

I really don't know what I am going to do going forward with how I play TDK's system...I know this weekend is probably a statistical anomaly but this isn't the first time I've had to think twice about games with huge chalk...

I remember a few weeks ago I ran the numbers on his system and 90-95% of his series were hitting within the first 3 games...so maybe I'll only chase for 3 games from now on...again, I don't have the time to develop a betting strategy that would be most efficient for TDK's system based on the results so far, so I probably will continue betting as I normally would, but I'm definitely going to think twice before laying money on a line like what the Angels had today.

samrock67 · 06-03-13, 07:36 AM

6/3/13

As I've mentioned a couple of times, I am going to begin with a little experiment and will be posting some of my own plays every day, they will be listed as "unofficial RL 2.0 plays." I will have a small-write up as often as I have the time, but tail at your own risk. I will be taking a couple of factors into consideration- home/away, pitching matchups, RPI, and run differential to name a few. I certainly won't be producing as many plays as TDK does but I think there are certain teams that are always worth tailing. BOL to whatever you choose to do.

Official RL Plays
LAA -1.5 8u
Cin -1.5 2u
CWS -1.5 2u
Sea -1.5 2u
NYY -1.5 1u

Thoughts: I personally am not going to lay any more money down on the Angels, they've cost me enough. That being said, they'll somehow find a way to back 1-8 Joe Blanton and finally get a win against the Disastros.

Unofficial RL 2.0 Plays
1. StL -1.5 1u
2. Oak -1.5 1u
3. Phi -1.5 1u

Thoughts: At this point, it's pretty easy to see why the Cardinals should consistently be tailed. After a loss against SF on Sunday that saw Yadier Molina and manager Mike Matheny get ejected, look for the Cards to bounce back with fire against the Diamondbacks. The A's are the league's hottest team right now, 9-1 in their last 10 and 14 of the last 16. They roll into Milwaukee where they should be able to take care of business. The Phillies host the Marlins, who yes, did just complete a sweep of the Mets and cost sports bettors around the world a ton of money, but they do have to come down to earth at some point. The Marlins are still the league's worst team. Kyle Kendrick gets the start for Philly tonight and posts a career 11-2 record against the Fish.

BOL to everyone today

Spreadsheet for this system can be found here: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/...tMGcxSnc#gid=3

ColdBeerHere · 06-03-13, 11:09 AM

I was just about to pull the trigger on the Angels...I had the bet amount in, and password typed. All I had to do was hit enter....Now I am going to debate for the rest of the day if I want to bet these clowns anymore....

They cost me a 4 game chase in my thread earlier this year, and now they cost me a 4 game chase here....That's a lot of units.....If it wasn't for them I would be up HUUUUUUUGE....

If I don't bet them for the 4th leg here I will not bet them at all for the rest of the year....

Going to debate.....Be back later.....

ColdBeerHere · 06-03-13, 11:11 AM

Sam is that right ? Betting both sides of the CWS/Seattle game ? I only ask because this is the first time this has happened since I have been following.